The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

Slow steady decline across the board.

 

looks like about a 20-25% drop in deaths and about a 20% drop in positive test rate.  With slight decline in confirmed positives.  Week over week. 
 

 

[Reality Check]

6 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...realistically though, aren't science and capitalists the ideal "antis" in something like this?.....scientists seem to be worst case doom and gloom gang whereas capitalists are more optimistic.....if, IF this pandemic is an overreaction, scientists disappear while capitalists thump their chests...in the meantime, we suffer because of warring factions.......I'm concerned about the least addressed of "in betweens".....for example, what are the socioeconomic effects of these shutdowns?....familial financial deterioration (yet the fault of those living paycheck to paycheck?), increases in depression, suicides, spousal violence, et al?.....or how about social skills of children being away from the classroom since March?...is "pressed into service" of home schooling as effective as "live in the classroom instruction"?......just don't see where "all things considered" is actually a "consideration"...

I share all of your concerns. The damage done by this shutdown is profound and still widely unknown. There is no precedent for it. We must soldier on and apply what we learn day to day. Sadly, there is no holistic model currently available to evaluate the damage as of yet. I agree with your premise of "ideal antis". Capitalists who have maintained their ethics tend to be exceedingly pragmatic and effective, especially in emergencies. I maintain hope for effective solutions and accountability.

[Chef Jim]

46 minutes ago, The Poojer said:

I'm guessing that has more to do with you than their safety ?

 

 

 

They have been calling me a virus for a couple years now.  

[GG]

10 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

History is likely to show that they knew exactly what they were doing. They are "experts" of course. Then again when experts are wrong and there are casualties, some will rationalize away the result as merely a "miscalculation".

 

I'll give them the benefit of trying to fight a totally unknown virus and following the process that you thought was proper based on what other countries were doing.  In retrospect it could turn out that the first countries that got hit were wrong, and that set everyone on the wrong path.   

 

It started with healthcare experts downplaying the infection threat in January & February, followed by watching the Italian viral spread though the hospitals and putting all seriously infected cases on ventilators.  I'm guessing that the desire to keep the hospitals as free of disease as possible was the far more fatal path to follow.

[Chef Jim]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

Slow steady decline across the board.

 

 

Well yes I think it has to do a lot with the amount of posting @Tiberius @Q-baby! @BillStime @SectionC3 on the board.

 

Wait..........what...........??

40 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

ART OF THE DEAL: 

 

U.S. secures 300 million doses, almost a third, of potential AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.

 

If Trump were a Democrat, we’d be hearing about this everywhere as evidence of his forward-leaning strategy. Since he’s Trump, we probably will barely hear about it at all, unless someone can find out that he has fifty bucks worth of AstraZeneca stock in a mutual fund somewhere and charge him with self-dealing.

 

 

Well no they'll fixate on the word POTENTIAL and call it a waste of money on something that has not been tested blah blah blah blah ORANGE MAN BAD blah blah blah blah. 

 

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Вам не нравятся успешные капиталисты и ученые, komrade. 

 

Donald??  ?

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

 

I am typically not a Monday morning sort of Quarterback sort of analysis sort of guy.

 

But this was entirely avoidable.  Amazing how the media isn't honing in on this.

 

Actually, it's not amazing, it's wholly predictable.

 

 

It's sad what they are doing to older people.  Complete tyranny. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[plenzmd1]

2 hours ago, The Poojer said:

I'm guessing that has more to do with you than their safety ?

 

 

Very astute observation young man. 

 

BTW , in an actual inside bar in Morgantown WVA! 

[Magox]

The little told story of #COVID19

 

 

[Reality Check]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

I'll give them the benefit of trying to fight a totally unknown virus and following the process that you thought was proper based on what other countries were doing.  In retrospect it could turn out that the first countries that got hit were wrong, and that set everyone on the wrong path.   

 

It started with healthcare experts downplaying the infection threat in January & February, followed by watching the Italian viral spread though the hospitals and putting all seriously infected cases on ventilators.  I'm guessing that the desire to keep the hospitals as free of disease as possible was the far more fatal path to follow.

My post was in reference to those four states that forced sick seniors back into these assisted living facilities. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the death counts would dramatically increase as a result, and that is why I won't let them off the hook for that decision. Haven't you noticed the lack of remorse on the subject and the political capital it created in arguing for delays in reopening due to death totals. You may want to consider that some of our leaders have sociopathic tendencies in regards to promoting their agendas. Human life these days is quite fungible. We must not forget that this virus was not an unknown commodity. It was produced in a Wuhan bioweapons lab working on "gain of function" research. Create a problem, profit off of the solution. This is not a new game.

[meazza]

4 hours ago, GG said:

 

I'll give them the benefit of trying to fight a totally unknown virus and following the process that you thought was proper based on what other countries were doing.  In retrospect it could turn out that the first countries that got hit were wrong, and that set everyone on the wrong path.   

 

It started with healthcare experts downplaying the infection threat in January & February, followed by watching the Italian viral spread though the hospitals and putting all seriously infected cases on ventilators.  I'm guessing that the desire to keep the hospitals as free of disease as possible was the far more fatal path to follow.

 

Exactly.  Hindsight is 20/20.  I'm old enough to remember when our government completely downplayed this virus in early March while Italy was clearly turning into a nightmare.

 

Policy makers are not deviant sociopaths that can plan the next conspiracy but rather career officials who just keep making bad decisions as they try to look out for their own asses.

[Chef Jim]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

The little told story of #COVID19

 

 

Now that is quite interesting. I had an office  in Walnut Creek for a few years. Beautiful area. Sad story. 

[BillStime]

14 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Well yes I think it has to do a lot with the amount of posting @Tiberius @Q-baby! @BillStime @SectionC3 on the board.

 

[meazza]

3 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Chef Jim is a republican ?

[SoCal Deek]

It’s really close now people! Yesterday only three states reported triple digit deaths: NY (125) NJ and CA (107 each). All other states were well below those figures and if you drill down further into those three states you’ll of course find the vast majority of even those limited deaths are in very small geographic counties, and comprised a very small subset of the elderly population. 

[Chef Jim]

12 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Facts??  No.....

Opinions

Feels

Dumbassery

[GG]

12 hours ago, Reality Check said:

My post was in reference to those four states that forced sick seniors back into these assisted living facilities. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the death counts would dramatically increase as a result, and that is why I won't let them off the hook for that decision. Haven't you noticed the lack of remorse on the subject and the political capital it created in arguing for delays in reopening due to death totals. You may want to consider that some of our leaders have sociopathic tendencies in regards to promoting their agendas. Human life these days is quite fungible. We must not forget that this virus was not an unknown commodity. It was produced in a Wuhan bioweapons lab working on "gain of function" research. Create a problem, profit off of the solution. This is not a new game.

 

I don't believe that the politicians act out of intentional malice.  They follow their instincts and sometimes advice, to enact policy, but being natural narcissists of the highest order, it's impossible for them to admit a mistake.  This is what you are seeing in the NYC metro area, where the early decisions which may have seemed right at the time, proved to be catastrophic and the leaders can't pivot fast enough to reverse course because that would mean admitting to major mistakes.

 

The biggest problem I see in hindsight is fully following Italy's example in treatments, isolation and lockdowns.   You'd figure Italy would be among the last countries you'd want to emulate, but because they got hit so hard so fast, it was universally seen as the model to follow, when it shouldn't have been.   They should have followed the Washington State model instead.

 

If you recall, at the time, the best theory of the Italian spread started in a single hospital in Bergamo, which then infected the entire North.  That's why the precautions were taken to protect hospitals at all costs, because of the risk of spreading the infections from the hospitals to the rest of the population.  In retrospect, that was a grave mistake because nursing homes were ill equipped to take the sick patients, and they became the prime centers of reinfections.   The correct move should have been to transfer all those patients to Javitz or to the ship.  Critical mistake, and Cuomo will face his reckoning over this decision.

[Chef Jim]

11 minutes ago, meazza said:

Chef Jim is a republican ?

They are so clueless. 

[Chef Jim]

11 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I don't believe that the politicians act out of intentional malice.  They follow their instincts and sometimes advice, to enact policy, but being natural narcissists of the highest order, it's impossible for them to admit a mistake.  This is what you are seeing in the NYC metro area, where the early decisions which may have seemed right at the time, proved to be catastrophic and the leaders can't pivot fast enough to reverse course because that would mean admitting to major mistakes.

 

The biggest problem I see in hindsight is fully following Italy's example in treatments, isolation and lockdowns.   You'd figure Italy would be among the last countries you'd want to emulate, but because they got hit so hard so fast, it was universally seen as the model to follow, when it shouldn't have been.   They should have followed the Washington State model instead.

 

If you recall, at the time, the best theory of the Italian spread started in a single hospital in Bergamo, which then infected the entire North.  That's why the precautions were taken to protect hospitals at all costs, because of the risk of spreading the infections from the hospitals to the rest of the population.  In retrospect, that was a grave mistake because nursing homes were ill equipped to take the sick patients, and they became the prime centers of reinfections.   The correct move should have been to transfer all those patients to Javitz or to the ship.  Critical mistake, and Cuomo will face his reckoning over this decision.

Even thought I really can’t stand politicians (they rank a close 3rd behind celebrities and bicyclists) they are really in a tough position here of damned if you do damned if you don’t. Stay home crash the economy open up the cases/deaths may surge.  The only thing is one of those two options is certain hence the word “may” in the second option.  I don’t envy them at all. 

[SoCal Deek]

25 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Even thought I really can’t stand politicians (they rank a close 3rd behind celebrities and bicyclists) they are really in a tough position here of damned if you do damned if you don’t. Stay home crash the economy open up the cases/deaths may surge.  The only thing is one of those two options is certain hence the word “may” in the second option.  I don’t envy them at all. 

That’s what they want you to think. The choice is not that complicated if you use data instead of emotions. The vast, vast, vast majority of each and every State does not have a problem with the Corona Virus. This now needs to be turned over to county officials, not governors. Just like Trump turned it over to the governors a few weeks ago. 

[meazza]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s what they want you to think. The choice is not that complicated if you use data instead of emotions. The vast, vast, vast majority of each and every State does not have a problem with the Corona Virus. This now needs to be turned over to county officials, not governors. Just like Trump turned it over to the governors a few weeks ago. 

I’m pretty sure the discussion was about the initial two months of the virus.  March and April was very difficult.  
 

 

[BillStime]

1 hour ago, meazza said:

Chef Jim is a republican ?

You’re right - I should have used Trumphole.

[GG]

6 minutes ago, meazza said:

I’m pretty sure the discussion was about the initial two months of the virus.  March and April was very difficult.  
 

 

 

Realistically, the early decisions were based on the Feb & March experience.

[Chef Jim]

11 minutes ago, BillStime said:

You’re right - I should have used Trumphole.

 

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

Facts??  No.....

Opinions

Feels

Dumbassery

 

I'm sorry I forgot to add:

 

Immature

Childish

Petulant 

 

Trumphole.   ?  What are you?  12? 

[SoCal Deek]

19 minutes ago, meazza said:

I’m pretty sure the discussion was about the initial two months of the virus.  March and April was very difficult.  
 

 

Again, it all depends on where you live. This was NOT a national issue.

[Chef Jim]

32 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s what they want you to think. The choice is not that complicated if you use data instead of emotions. The vast, vast, vast majority of each and every State does not have a problem with the Corona Virus. This now needs to be turned over to county officials, not governors. Just like Trump turned it over to the governors a few weeks ago. 

 

I disagree.  We/They're dealing with a hell of a lot of unknowns.  

 

I agree with it should be up to the local officials but again that could really backfire.  We just don't know. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Chef Jim said:

 

I disagree.  We/They're dealing with a hell of a lot of unknowns.  

 

I agree with it should be up to the local officials but again that could really backfire.  We just don't know. 

Yes we do. There’s no shortage of data now. If you look deeper into the age by age, state by state and county by county numbers it’s very revealing.

[Chef Jim]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Again, it all depends on where you live. This was NOT a national issue.

 

And this is why it's being handled on the local level.  You're in CA and you know that each county here is opening up with different protocols and restrictions.  None of this "lockdown" is on a national level. Recommendations are coming from the Feds but not rules.  

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yes we do. There’s no shortage of data now. If you look deeper into the age by age, state by state and county by county numbers it’s very revealing.

 

Most of what we have is data under tighter restrictions of where people can go.  We have very little data on how things will be once we open EVERYTHING back up.  

[GG]

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yes we do. There’s no shortage of data now. If you look deeper into the age by age, state by state and county by county numbers it’s very revealing.

 

You're using data and lessons learned as of the end of May to judge February decisions when very little was known.

[B-Man]

Trump, in Michigan: 'We're not going to close the country' if there's a 2nd wave of coronavirus cases

President Trump acknowledged Thursday that there could be a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic later this year, but flatly stated he wouldn’t let any further outbreaks shutter the economy again.

 

“People say that’s a very distinct possibility,” Trump said when asked a possible second wave while in Michigan. “It's standard. And, we're going put out the fires. We're not going to close the country.”

 

Trump’s comments came as he was touring a Ford Motor Co. plant outside of Detroit that has converted its automobile manufacturing facility into one making ventilators. During a speech at the plant, the president praised Ford workers for their efforts to produce thousands of ventilators during the pandemic.

 

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...

 

 

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

On 5/20/2020 at 2:04 PM, Chef Jim said:

The unidentified staffer told her managers at Tula Regional Clinical Hospital that she was “too hot”

No such thing. 

 

On 5/20/2020 at 2:35 PM, Joe Miner said:

You won't get that kind of treatment with Obamacare.

Thanks a lot Obama.

 

On 5/20/2020 at 2:40 PM, Jon in Pasadena said:

Where's the pics of her getting disciplined?  (Asking for a friend.)

 

On 5/20/2020 at 2:41 PM, keepthefaith said:

She probably saved a few old dudes.  No way you'd go ahead and die if you knew she'd be back to take your temperature. 

 

On 5/21/2020 at 7:01 AM, Gary M said:

yep

 

https://nypost.com/2020/05/22/hot-nurse-gets-support-after-suspension-for-exposing-bra-and-panties/

 

[Magox]

Florida numbers still showing very low positive test rates.

 

That's the key, if that remains low then they can open up even more.

 

[Chef Jim]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

Florida numbers still showing very low positive test rates.

 

That's the key, if that remains low then they can open up even more.

 

 

But trending up. That's a hell of an increase from 5/19 to 5/20 and 5/21. Not sure what that means but it's a bounce off the bottom nonetheless.  

[B-Man]

 

 

I BLAME THE KAREN MEDIA: 

 

Bubble-Wrapped Americans: How the U.S. Became Obsessed with Physical and Emotional Safety.

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

11 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

But trending up. That's a hell of an increase from 5/19 to 5/20 and 5/21. Not sure what that means but it's a bounce off the bottom nonetheless.  

Chef the way they look at these are not day to day as there are variances and quirks with the reporting systems.  The way they view this is with 7 day moving averages.  If you just imagined a trend line it would show that it’s declining

Look where it was one week ago.  In the 4’s.  Just to put things in perspective the national average is at around 5%.  So mid 2’s looks really solid.

[meazza]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yes we do. There’s no shortage of data now. If you look deeper into the age by age, state by state and county by county numbers it’s very revealing.

 

Exactly, there's no shortage of data now but decisions were made based on data two months ago.  

[Magox]

This is newsworthy.

 

CDC just provided their best estimates of the virus and it includes a mortality rate of just .26%.  

 

WOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

That would be in the lower end of where I had pegged it of .25% - .5%

 

And look at how low the hospitalization rates are by age.  

[Tiberius]

With roads empty, the record for fastest cross-country drive keeps getting smashed

A nearly empty Pacific Coast Highway in March. (Mark J. Terrill/AP)

Since 1971, a daring fraternity of drivers has competed to see how quickly it is possible to get from the Red Ball Garage in midtown Manhattan to the Portofino Hotel in Redondo Beach, Calif. — a nearly 3,000-mile journey known as the “Cannonball Run.”

With traffic virtually nonexistent during the coronavirus pandemic, that record keeps getting smashed. In early April, a crew in an Audi A8 sedan made it across the country in 26 hours and 38 minutes, according to Road & Track magazine. But they didn’t get to be champions for long: Last week, Ed Bolian, a former record holder who has become the stunt’s unofficial arbiter, announced that another team had made it coast-to-coast in under 26 hours.

Because the undertaking is extremely illegal, Cannonballers are understandably cautious to remain anonymous — at least until after the statute of limitations is up. So not much is known about the new record holders, who would have had to maintain an average speed of over 108 mph, and reportedly averaged 120 mph in several states.

Some members of the Cannonball community take a dim view of drivers who are defying stay-at-home orders to take advantage of the empty highways. When the Audi A8 beat the pre-pandemic Cannonball record by 45 minutes in April, Alex Roy, a former record holder, told Road & Track, “If you hit a truck moving medical supplies and people die because of it, that’s on you.”

An Instagram account claiming to be the “official” record keeper for the Cannonball Run has said that any records set during the pandemic won’t be considered legitimate.

[The Poojer]

That's insane....?

 

23 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

another team had made it coast-to-coast in under 26 hours.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

You're using data and lessons learned as of the end of May to judge February decisions when very little was known.

No I'm not. I'm simply looking at the data.  The problem has been that the drive-by observers are not digging deep enough into the data and are instead glossing over the larger totals.  There is a ton that we now know.  We didn't know it back in February.  Note....I am NOT blaming those in charge for what they didn't know back at the time.