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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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13 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


Absolutely. We've been down this road before. Once the government rescinds a freedom or imposes a law/tax, we never go back.

And people are perfectly ok with this.


You don’t think we got our right assemble back after the Spanish Flu? And back then there were —mandatory— vaccinations. Now people are proud (and stupid) of not getting vaccinated. 
 

During times of war and pandemic, constitutional rights have been abridged before. Like now with the right to assemble. And there are other examples. Not to mention the everyday ones mentioned already where constitutional rights collide (yelling fire in a movie theater). 

 

This is bad enough without the histrionics about millions dead, bodies in the streets, and the start of a Brave New World/1984 police state. Let’s call the bull#### when we see it and fight back of it gets extended too far. 
 

Right now we need to control this disease To some extent and get back to work as soon as possible without risking another shutdown if/when the big case wave comes after this little wave dies down.

 

 

 

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Hello everyone, and I had the opportunity to visit Cassandra at Buffalo Children's today. As mentioned she is off the Ecmo machine and doing most of the work. It will take some time for her to heal. S

I have stayed away from this forum for a long time, and most know my politics...tonight was important for our country. Trump was up to it so far. Fantastic job.     

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4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I blame the generalized demasculinization of our society. But yes, jarts too.


"demasculinization" as in feminine? Buddy, until you push a 10 pound spawn out your hoo-ha, you don't know toughness, pain, and suffering. Men should be so strong.

Let's just settle on people today are comfortable, spoiled, and seldom taught/learn history.

 

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Spain is a long ways from out of this but is allowing some businesses to reopen on Monday. They are harder hit than Italy and currently are number two in deaths in Europe  (we will take the number one spot today from Italy in the world and hold it for a long time). 
 

I expect their second wave to be a disaster. 

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20 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


I blame the parents. When kids were no longer allowed to take their chances with jarts, things went downhill fast.

 

I was on the wrong side of the old “You’ll put your eye out” when I was a young man. Wrong place, wrong time.  ***** happens sometimes...though being completely honest, I was a bit over the top with my own children.  Had nothing to do with my own dealio , much more to do with my own generalized anxiety that BAD stuff can happen coupled with a spouse who felt the same.   I’d knock it back 15-20% if I could do it again, and have shared that with my awesome adult-aged children who seem none the worse for wear. 

 

Jarts is Thunderdome BG.  Crazy talk!!

27 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I blame the generalized demasculinization of our society. But yes, jarts too.

Jarts...you people are Tiger King without the prison time! (Presumably) ?

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4 minutes ago, shoshin said:


You don’t think we got our right assemble back after the Spanish Flu? And back then there were —mandatory— vaccinations. Now people are proud (and stupid) of not getting vaccinated. 
 

During times of war and pandemic, constitutional rights have been abridged before. Like now with the right to assemble. And there are other examples. Not to mention the everyday ones mentioned already where constitutional rights collide (yelling fire in a movie theater). 

 

This is bad enough without the histrionics about millions dead, bodies in the streets, and the start of a Brave New World/1984 police state. Let’s call the bull#### when we see it and fight back of it gets extended too far. 
 

Right now we need to control this disease To some extent and get back to work as soon as possible without risking another shutdown if/when the big case wave comes after this little wave dies down.

 

 

 

Times have changed. To put it simply, back a century ago there was no group promoting 57 genders, taxpayer funded sex changes and hatred for white males. Nobody was promoting changing our voting procedures in order to harvest ballots or having the government make special payments to the media. In 1918 no one said we have to politically take advantage of every crisis. The Left has tried to take advantage every point along the way by trying to hold every reasonable solution hostage to their partisan demands. Extra funding for the Kennedy Center, changing voting laws and including new emission standards for airlines in order to pass a purely emergency bill is horseshit. The dems MO is to slip the camel's nose under the tent and before the rest of us know it they've got a camel toe in your bed. 

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30 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


I blame the parents. When kids were no longer allowed to take their chances with jarts, things went downhill fast.

 

True story: While playing jarts in the backyard one got away and was thrown into our doughboy pool. Yep...bullseye, right through the liner. My dad sent my brother and me down with waterproof tape to patch the hole. We got it done and that patch lasted for years! 

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21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


"demasculinization" as in feminine? Buddy, until you push a 10 pound spawn out your hoo-ha, you don't know toughness, pain, and suffering. Men should be so strong.

Let's just settle on people today are comfortable, spoiled, and seldom taught/learn history.

 

Some of the toughest people I've known are females. About an equal number are males. While childbirth must certainly be painful I've been told by a couple of females that they'd choose pushing that 10 pound spawn out rather than that nearly invisible kidney stone. Well, maybe they didn't say 10 pounds. 

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

True story: While playing jarts in the backyard one got away and was thrown into our doughboy pool. Yep...bullseye, right through the liner. My dad sent my brother and me down with waterproof tape to patch the hole. We got it done and that patch lasted for years! 

If I've heard that story once I've heard it 20 times. It's just a way to get around the lawn watering restrictions in Southern California. 

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5 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Times have changed. To put it simply, back a century ago there was no group promoting 57 genders, taxpayer funded sex changes and hatred for white males. Nobody was promoting changing our voting procedures in order to harvest ballots or having the government make special payments to the media. In 1918 no one said we have to politically take advantage of every crisis. The Left has tried to take advantage every point along the way by trying to hold every reasonable solution hostage to their partisan demands. Extra funding for the Kennedy Center, changing voting laws and including new emission standards for airlines in order to pass a purely emergency bill is horseshit. The dems MO is to slip the camel's nose under the tent and before the rest of us know it they've got a camel toe in your bed. 

I’m probably a bit less concerned about the extremes, but when you add in “citizens must show papers” (think O’Hare airport lines), while it’s a ***** free for all at the southern border and “how dare you ask for papers in that case!” coupled with “people shouldn’t need papers to vote”, it’s relatively easy to see that the tail wags the dog.  
 

and don’t be closed-minded, there are no genders and the number of genders is infinite depending on #yourtruth. 

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

The whole testing clap trap is a waste of breath. Since the virus doesn’t present itself until you’re already well infected and have therefore spread it to DOZENS of other people around you, testing is a nice statistic but does literally nothing to stop the spread. That is unless the government is ready to take people who test positive away in a van and lock them up in a containment camp! However here, Trump even mentioned in passing, locking down NYC and the media went apesh&t nuts!  

Locking down NYC, and only NYC is one thing I can get on board with. 

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31 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Locking down NYC, and only NYC is one thing I can get on board with. 

 

NYC and northern NJ remain 50% of our deaths almost every day. It's shocking. Even as some city cases rise, nothing will likely come close to NY. 

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

True story: While playing jarts in the backyard one got away and was thrown into our doughboy pool. Yep...bullseye, right through the liner. My dad sent my brother and me down with waterproof tape to patch the hole. We got it done and that patch lasted for years! 

 

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1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Spain is a long ways from out of this but is allowing some businesses to reopen on Monday. They are harder hit than Italy and currently are number two in deaths in Europe  (we will take the number one spot today from Italy in the world and hold it for a long time). 
 

I expect their second wave to be a disaster. 

  In terms of being world leaders it was all downhill for Spain once the Armada met Drake in 1588.

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15 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

 

He is pure garbage.  The question if asked without the "happy talk" comment would have at least been relevant.

Who was the one that decided the prayer in the Whitehouse  was a great time to ask a dumb " what is your thoughts" question? Come on people!

14 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Don't know if been posted but this is wonderful from President Trump

 

At the end of this?

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

NYC and northern NJ remain 50% of our deaths almost every day. It's shocking. Even as some city cases rise, nothing will likely come close to NY. 

I wonder if the polution they breathe every day has an impact in mortality rates?

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

NYC and northern NJ remain 50% of our deaths almost every day. It's shocking. Even as some city cases rise, nothing will likely come close to NY. 

I wonder if the polution they breathe every day has an impact in mortality rates?

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14 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

 

I wonder if the polution they breathe every day has an impact in mortality rates?

 

Probably close to zero effect.  If that were the case you'd see fairly uniform numbers across the city.  But the infection rates and mortality vary greatly by zip code.  BTW, if people think that density is the main issue in NYC, that doesn't explain Nassau, Suffolk & Westchester counties.

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THE PANDEMIC: WHERE WE STAND NOW

By John Hindraker

 

The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to decline hereafter. Given that model’s track record, no one is taking it to the bank. But it is an opportune moment to see where we stand today, in terms of fatalities, in the context of other diseases.

 

I have posted this chart, now updated with today’s numbers, several times before. It is simple: it shows, from left to right, the average number of annual deaths attributed to the seasonal flu, worldwide, according to the World Health Organization; the number of global COVID-19 deaths to date, per the same organization; the number of deaths attributed to seasonal flu in the U.S. two years ago, the 2017-2018 season; and U.S. COVID-19 deaths to date.

 

Click to enlarge:

Screen-Shot-2020-04-10-at-5.47.59-PM.png

 

Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.

 

Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.

 

A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Probably close to zero effect.  If that were the case you'd see fairly uniform numbers across the city.  But the infection rates and mortality vary greatly by zip code.  BTW, if people think that density is the main issue in NYC, that doesn't explain Nassau, Suffolk & Westchester counties.

Well, I will have you know that the air quality in NNY where we have had 1 death of 135 cases is much better then the air quality in NYC. I have lived in both environments. It is different. 

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