The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[IDBillzFan]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

How dare you

 

Simply can not resist...

 

[B-Man]

 Covid-19 and the Big Government Problem: What happens when bureaucratic dead weight meets a horseman of the apocalypse?

 

From 2007 to 2019, the total number of employees in the Food and Drug Administration increased by nearly 80 percent to more than 17,000 employees, according to a Cato Institute report. That includes nearly 500 additional workers to review the safety of medical devices.

 

Has it helped? In March, Julia Ioffe wrote a must-read account in GQ of the F.D.A.’s almost-comical mishandling of an effort to roll out coronavirus test kits. First the F.D.A. approved a flawed test. Then they stymied an effective test by requiring its developer to submit his request not only electronically but also mailed in paper and via thumb drive. Then the F.D.A. demanded that the developer see if his test worked against other coronaviruses. Then the F.D.A. shut down a testing regime developed by the Seattle Flu Study because it lacked the correct licensing requirements.

 

And yet some idiots are blaming these problems on “small government” ideology. If only!

 

 

 

Related: The CDC was Fighting Racism and Obesity Instead of Stopping Epidemics.

 

 

 

 

Flashback: You had one job, CDC.

 

 

 

 

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[ALF]

This virus has less fatalities then a bad flu season , but a hotspot  like NYC is a real disaster. It's hard to predict what could happen in other areas if no semi  lockdown there. I  can't remember another PPE shortage like now. 

[KD in CA]

Any thoughts as to why the US categorizes so few people as 'recovered'?   

 

According to the daily numbers, only 5.5% of the total cases in the US (500k) have recovered, compared to 30% of the other 1.2m cases in the rest of the world.   27% if you just look at Canada + Europe and exclude phony numbers from places like BRIC, Iran, etc.

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Any thoughts as to why the US categorizes so few people as 'recovered'?   

 

According to the daily numbers, only 5.5% of the total cases in the US (500k) have recovered, compared to 30% of the other 1.2m cases in the rest of the world.   27% if you just look at Canada + Europe and exclude phony numbers from places like BRIC, Iran, etc.

Maybe timing is the issue? It takes two weeks for the virus to completely disappear.

[ALF]

2 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Any thoughts as to why the US categorizes so few people as 'recovered'?   

 

According to the daily numbers, only 5.5% of the total cases in the US (500k) have recovered, compared to 30% of the other 1.2m cases in the rest of the world.   27% if you just look at Canada + Europe and exclude phony numbers from places like BRIC, Iran, etc.

 

I would guess not enough testing for those recovering at home.

[B-Man]

Opinion: Federalism and the Private Sector Rock!

 

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

 

Beautiful words.

.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Probably close to zero effect.  If that were the case you'd see fairly uniform numbers across the city.  But the infection rates and mortality vary greatly by zip code.  BTW, if people think that density is the main issue in NYC, that doesn't explain Nassau, Suffolk & Westchester counties.

Those counties travel to NYC so I think it explains it pretty well. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

THE PANDEMIC: WHERE WE STAND NOW

By John Hindraker

 

The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to decline hereafter. Given that model’s track record, no one is taking it to the bank. But it is an opportune moment to see where we stand today, in terms of fatalities, in the context of other diseases.

 

I have posted this chart, now updated with today’s numbers, several times before. It is simple: it shows, from left to right, the average number of annual deaths attributed to the seasonal flu, worldwide, according to the World Health Organization; the number of global COVID-19 deaths to date, per the same organization; the number of deaths attributed to seasonal flu in the U.S. two years ago, the 2017-2018 season; and U.S. COVID-19 deaths to date.

 

Click to enlarge:

 

Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.

 

Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.

 

A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.

 

 

 

 

.

Tripling the daily death count over what it normally is in NY is real. 

 

 Covid is crushing a lot of healthcare systems as they drop almost every other patient to try to care for them.

 

All the above happened in just a couple of months and during a virtual lockdown, where the flu numbers are for a full year with no lockdown. 
 

Stop comparing this to the flu. It isn’t the flu. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by shoshin

[billsfan1959]

38 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Any thoughts as to why the US categorizes so few people as 'recovered'?   

 

According to the daily numbers, only 5.5% of the total cases in the US (500k) have recovered, compared to 30% of the other 1.2m cases in the rest of the world.   27% if you just look at Canada + Europe and exclude phony numbers from places like BRIC, Iran, etc.

 

We would have much better numbers by now if Trump would have started testing last summer

[shoshin]

51 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Any thoughts as to why the US categorizes so few people as 'recovered'?   

 

According to the daily numbers, only 5.5% of the total cases in the US (500k) have recovered, compared to 30% of the other 1.2m cases in the rest of the world.   27% if you just look at Canada + Europe and exclude phony numbers from places like BRIC, Iran, etc.

We are late to the party in getting Covid. Our numbers will increase. I was noticing this was wildly low in the European counties for a long time too. Must have to do with how long you have to be Covid free before you move to “recovered.” Maybe our standard for recovery is different too because I can’t explain Canada. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

[Doc]

56 minutes ago, ALF said:

This virus has less fatalities then a bad flu season , but a hotspot  like NYC is a real disaster. It's hard to predict what could happen in other areas if no semi  lockdown there. I  can't remember another PPE shortage like now. 

 

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Tripling the daily death count over what it normally is in NY is real. 

 

 Covid is crushing a lot of healthcare systems as they drop almost every other patient to try to care for them.

 

All the above happened in just a couple of months and during a virtual lockdown, where the flu numbers are for a full year with no lockdown. 
 

Stop comparing this to the flu. It isn’t the flu. 

 

Yes.  Because we have a vaccine for the flu.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

Yes.  Because we have a vaccine for the flu.

 

Yeah another thing i'm worried about. Might be a stronger flu or less flu shots.  So so on flu shots. Hoping labs prepared in case.. Flu changes every year. Why for vaccines.

 

How Influenza (Flu) Vaccines Are Made

Español

medical icon

Selecting Viruses for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

lab icon

Advancements in Influenza Vaccines

On This Page

• Egg-Based Flu Vaccines
• Cell-Based Flu Vaccines
• Recombinant Flu Vaccines

 

For the United States there are three different influenza vaccine production technologies approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)external icon:

• egg-based flu vaccine,
• cell-based flu vaccine, and
• recombinant flu vaccine.

All commercially available flu vaccines in the United States are made by private sector manufacturers. Different manufacturers use different production technologies, but all flu vaccines meet FDA safety and effectiveness requirements. Different vaccines have different indications. See Influenza Vaccines — United States, 2019-2020 Influenza Season for specific indications.

Egg-Based Flu Vaccines

The most common way that flu vaccines are made is using an egg-based manufacturing process

that has been used for more than 70 years. Egg-based vaccine manufacturing is used to make both inactivated (killed) vaccine (usually called the “flu shot”) and live attenuated (weakened) vaccine (usually called the “nasal spray flu vaccine”).

The egg-based production process begins with CDC or another laboratory partner in the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System providing private sector manufacturers with candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) grown in eggs per current FDA regulatory requirements. These CVVs are then injected into fertilized hen’s eggs and incubated for several days to allow the viruses to replicate. The fluid containing virus is harvested from the eggs. For inactivated influenza vaccines (i.e., flu shots), the vaccine viruses are then inactivated (killed), and the virus antigen is purified. The manufacturing process continues with quality testing, filling and distribution. For the nasal spray flu vaccine (i.e., the live attenuated influenza vaccine – LAIV), the starting CVVs are live, but weakened viruses that go through a different production process. FDA tests and approves all influenza vaccines prior to release and shipment.

There are several different manufacturers that use this production technology to make flu vaccines for use in the United States. This production method requires large numbers of chicken eggs to produce vaccine and may take longer than other production methods.

Cell-Based Flu Vaccines

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

Well I hope Gretch enjoyed her one term as guv.

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

Wow that's awful.  Feel badly all the people live there have to go thru that crap.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

 

[ALF]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

 

Yes.  Because we have a vaccine for the flu.

 

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

Despite the large amount of knowledge that has been gained about SARS-CoV following the outbreak, there are still no vaccines or antivirals approved for preventing or treating SARS-CoV infections.  Struck 2003

 

At this time, there is no vaccine or specific treatment for MERS.  Struck 2013-14

 

https://www.bcm.edu/departments/molecular-virology-and-microbiology/emerging-infections-and-biodefense/sars-virus

 

Not sure if the Sars and Mers still has no vaccine

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

35 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

 

The dream of the left. Destroy the family, break the church. I've sounded the alarm for years, and was called a fascist.