The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Koko78]

10 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

I love how the lefties, who have been screaming for 3+ years that Trump is a fascist dictator, are now upset that Trump isn't acting like a fascist dictator.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Scraps said:

And how am I supposed to know what was said in those classified briefings?  And given Trump's resistance to oversight, how do I know the House Intelligence Committee received the access to all the witnesses they asked for?

 

My point exactly. If you don't know what information anyone in the government received in these classified briefings, regarding the virus, then maybe you should just STFU about it until you do.

 

BTW, if you don't think the House Intelligence Committee received substantially the same information, then you are going to believe just what you want to believe regardless.

[shoshin]

22 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

How many is that going to be? How many people do think are going to die in this country from the virus? I have asked this question of others who keep talking about all the people that are going to die. Please, go on record with what you think is going to happen here and provide your supporting data.

 

In this wave until June, probably ~40-50,000. I assume we will level at 1500-2000/day for a couple of weeks, then see a rapid drop off where cities outside of NYC drive the numbers for a bit. Right now 50% of the deaths and cases are NYC and North Jersey. Currently the numbers showing that other cities are not replicating NYC and North Jersey, a trend I hope we continue to see. If other major metros follow NYC, the number could be 100,000 but I don't see that trend in the numbers. The cities to watch right now are LA, Boston, Atlanta, and Detroit. Philadelphia and Chicago shut down early and haven't seen large increases in deaths (yet). 

 

The bigger question on deaths is whether our current small population exposure is the only wave or if we have more. The Imperial College London model predicts multiple waves absent incredibly disciplined rigor in quashing outbreaks. 

 

An ability to treat early would help a lot. We all watch those studies with great hope. 

 

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You tell us

 

I already said it, but of course the cases will surge again much worse than before and we will either have an overwhelmed healthcare system or we will have another shutdown, both of which are untenable for the economy. What we are experiencing now is a caseload based on very few people having the disease. 

 

The re-opening has to be done smartly so we get the swoosh curve recovery discussed in the other thread so clearly.  

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

My point exactly. If you don't know what information anyone in the government received in these classified briefings, regarding the virus, then maybe you should just STFU about it until you do.

 

BTW, if you don't think the House Intelligence Committee received substantially the same information, then you are going to believe just what you want to believe regardless.

Oh sure....use logic! Apparently there were 72 people on a meaningless phone call with the Ukraine, and a racist Muslim travel ban for Nowheresville-astan went all the way up to the Supreme Court ..but that same President was able to shut down airline travel from the largest population on the PLANET without a single one of these same oversight clowns having had the slightest input as to why? Yeah....that sounds right.

[Westside]

1 hour ago, Gary Busey said:

 

This is the story of the morning

 

 

Trump cultists everywhere now saying Fauci is part of the #DeepState

Does the president have that authority? Or is it up to the states?

[GG]

1 hour ago, Gary Busey said:

 

This is the story of the morning

 

 

Trump cultists everywhere now saying Fauci is part of the #DeepState

 

Or is it because despite of a blanket stay at home order, states outside LA, NY & NJ are not growing at pandemic rates?   At this point of the infection cycle, NY & NJ were growing at 40%.   The rest of the country is growing at 10%.   Seems to me that other areas took the threat seriously and are practicing proper viral hygiene.

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

In this wave until June, probably ~40-50,000. I assume we will level at 1500-2000/day for a couple of weeks, then see a rapid drop off where cities outside of NYC drive the numbers for a bit. Right now 50% of the deaths and cases are NYC and North Jersey. Currently the numbers showing that other cities are not replicating NYC and North Jersey, a trend I hope we continue to see. If other major metros follow NYC, the number could be 100,000 but I don't see that trend in the numbers. The cities to watch right now are LA, Boston, Atlanta, and Detroit. Philadelphia and Chicago shut down early and haven't seen large increases in deaths (yet). 

 

The bigger question on deaths is whether our current small population exposure is the only wave or if we have more. The Imperial College London model predicts multiple waves absent incredibly disciplined rigor in quashing outbreaks. 

 

An ability to treat early would help a lot. We all watch those studies with great hope. 

 

I have several thoughts on this, based on what I have read. My guess is that we will end up with somewhere around 35,000 - 50,000 dead from this wave. I also think far more people have already contracted this virus than we think. Virtually every legitimate source is saying approximatey 25% are asymptomatic and another 25% have minor symptoms that wouldn't even prompt them to seek medical attention. So, I think far more people will have been exposed to it than you think. In the end, I think you will see a death rate of total cases that is higher than the flu, but still below 1%. 

 

Also, I don't think it won't be too long before we have the capability of each person being able to be tested, as well as the development of therapeutic drugs/vaccines. So, hopefully we don't get hit with a bad second wave in the future. 

 

I could be wrong and, if so, I will be more than willing to admit it.

 

Edit: Thanks for rationally saying what you think will happen and why 

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Good morning from the Jersey hot zone (again). Happy Friday and ***** China!

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html
 

Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states.

 

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” 
 

 

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, Tiberius said:

(Bloomberg) -- Doctors and hospitals overwhelmed in the pandemic will have to make their excruciating life-or-death decisions meticulously or they risk being second-guessed by a jury when the onslaught is over.

Lawyers who defend health care providers are already giving advice on how their clients can avoid liability if they’re forced to choose between patients. How they prepare for this battlefield triage now -- and how they practice it in the chaos of peak infections -- will determine whether negligence cases against them are dismissed or lead to trials or settlements over the death of a parent or spouse.

“The key, in my opinion, is to have clear written policies that do not discriminate or single out certain types of patients based on age, gender, race or any of those unlawful, suspect criteria,” said Nick Oberheiden, who represents doctors in malpractice litigation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/life-death-hospital-decisions-come-100000624.html

you know society is severely broken when health providers first concern is whether or not their decisions are litigious.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

At another point in the briefing, Kushner patted himself and the administration on the back, claiming, “We’ve done things that the federal government has never done before, quicker than they’ve ever done it before

 

How ***** delusional is this guy?

 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Good morning from the Jersey hot zone (again). Happy Friday and ***** China!

 

 

You don't have to worry as much being in the Pennsyltucky part of NJ

[Nanker]

25 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I haven't researched that yet either. I think it will be interesting to look at the statistics when this is all over and how they compare to "normal" stats. For instance, approximately 175,000 - 200,000 people die each year in this country from influenza, Pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (and you can only imagine what those figures are worldwide). I wonder what those figures will look like when we look back at this year.

Those figures might be a bit high.

However, one of the reasons I think some of the Wuhan Virus deaths are overstated is that some countries (Italy) state the cause of death as the Wuhan Virus - even though the patient died from something else, e.g., heart attack, diabetes, stroke, cancer. They may have been infected with the virus, but they died from something else, yet they're counted in the group "Died from Covid-19". 

[Tiberius]

20 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

I love how the lefties, who have been screaming for 3+ years that Trump is a fascist dictator, are now upset that Trump isn't acting like a fascist dictator.

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time to build up, a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven

A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may…

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GG said:

 

You don't have to worry as much being in the Pennsyltucky part of NJ

 

Enh. I think that's just a matter of no testing here.

 

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html
 

Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states.

 

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” 
 

 

Just unreal. The fact that that dope was out there talking at all is unsettling. 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

At another point in the briefing, Kushner patted himself and the administration on the back, claiming, “We’ve done things that the federal government has never done before, quicker than they’ve ever done it before

 

How ***** delusional is this guy?

 

 

They have done things the federal government hasn't done before. That's not delusional. It's just a fact.

 

And speaking of delusional, you seemed to have turned it into an olympic sport in your posts.

[Gary M]

13 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Or is it because despite of a blanket stay at home order, states outside LA, NY & NJ are not growing at pandemic rates?   At this point of the infection cycle, NY & NJ were growing at 40%.   The rest of the country is growing at 10%.   Seems to me that other areas took the threat seriously and are practicing proper viral hygiene.

 

Population density and travel patterns are also key. 

 

Western NY here. When I go to work I pass through two doors that may have been touched by 40 or 50 other people, that's it.

 

In NYC when you leave your apartment how many people left before you, then you take a train how many other people have touched those same surfaces before you, then you get to your building and open a door and ride an elevator that how many people also touched?

Edited April 3, 2020 by Gary M

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, Foxx said:

you know society is severely broken when health providers first concern is whether or not their decisions are litigious.

Really? I don;'t agree. We use to kill each other to settle scores. Now he go to court. That's a seriously awesome improvement. It's good we can do something when someone wrongs us. Yes, it gets abused, but what doesn't?

 

Hope you are well Foxx

 

 

[shoshin]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

 

There was discussion early on about how Italy was counting people with comorbidities as covid deaths and Germany was not. Italy and Spain were both so overwhelmed that who knows. Italy is undercounting in some areas too, where people die in their homes and aren't tested, so the counting is not great either way. Deaths is still the best metric. Cases is a bad one. Here it lags as much as 10 days from test to result and as we all know, not everyone is getting tested (if your spouse gets sick and then tested, and then everyone in the house gets it but does not get tested, only the spouse counts against the total...same with all the other people who call for tests and are just told to only come in if their symptoms get much worse). 

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Enh. I think that's just a matter of no testing here.

 

 

 

Possibly, but unlikely because you'd see a spike in deaths in South Jersey.  You can track it here.

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

Population density and travel patterns are also key. 

 

Western NY here. When I go to work I pass through two doors that may have been touched by 40 or 50 other people, that's it.

 

In NYC if you take a train how many other people have touched those same surfaces before you, then you get to your building and open a door and ride an elevator that how many people also touched?

 

I agree with this. If you look at population density by city, there is nothing at all like NYC in terms of density and sheer number of people. Plus they do not have a driving culture. NYC and the North Jersey extension thereof are entirely different from the rest of the country. 

 

I could not paste an entire image of this but this is sorted by cities with the most density. The top 8 are NYC metro, and 12 of the top 20 are as well. And at #8, you have 8M people. By comparison, Philadelphia is #95. SF there at 21 is dense but has had limited problems and that is 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[GG]

4 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

Population density and travel patterns are also key. 

 

Western NY here. When I go to work I pass through two doors that may have been touched by 40 or 50 other people, that's it.

 

In NYC when you leave your apartment how many people left before you, then you take a train how many other people have touched those same surfaces before you, then you get to your building and open a door and ride an elevator that how many people also touched?

 

That's 100% of the reason why NY and North Jersey exploded, in addition to not heeding directions in early-mid March.

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Those figures might be a bit high.

However, one of the reasons I think some of the Wuhan Virus deaths are overstated is that some countries (Italy) state the cause of death as the Wuhan Virus - even though the patient died from something else, e.g., heart attack, diabetes, stroke, cancer. They may have been infected with the virus, but they died from something else, yet they're counted in the group "Died from Covid-19". 

 

Agree.

 

BTW, the figures I quoted came from the CDC site: Over 215,000 dead from influenza, pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory diseases in 2017, and Over 180,000 dead in 2018. No figures for 2019

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

That's 100% of the reason why NY and North Jersey exploded, in addition to not heeding directions in early-mid March.

 

Boston was not closed for a week or 10 days after NYC. Keep an eye on what happens there. 

[Bob in Mich]

14 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have several thoughts on this, based on what I have read. My guess is that we will end up with somewhere around 35,000 - 50,000 dead from this wave. I also think far more people have already contracted this virus than we think. Virtually every legitimate source is saying approximatey 25% are asymptomatic and another 25% have minor symptoms that wouldn't even prompt them to seek medical attention. So, I think far more people will have been exposed to it than you think. In the end, I think you will see a death rate of total cases that is higher than the flu, but still below 1%. 

 

Also, I don't think it won't be too long before we have the capability of each person being able to be tested, as well as the development of therapeutic drugs/vaccines. So, hopefully we don't get hit with a bad second wave in the future. 

 

I could be wrong and, if so, I will be more than willing to admit it.

 

Really?  For weeks you have criticized anyone here that has been posting dire predictions concerning this virus.  Certainly your right, and BuffaloGal, and Deek, Rhino, and everyone here saying this is not as bad as feared, have that right.  Are any of you yet ready to admit that you have been terribly wrong?

 

I just wonder if any of you have considered if you have caused anyone to actually get this virus.  After all you have been saying for weeks that this is not that bad and you have all been so critical of those saying this is going to be very bad.  You might feel that you have been quelling panic but I would like to know if any of you feel any responsibility or even guilt for minimizing this pandemic to the under educated here.

[Warren Zevon]

19 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Or is it because despite of a blanket stay at home order, states outside LA, NY & NJ are not growing at pandemic rates?   At this point of the infection cycle, NY & NJ were growing at 40%.   The rest of the country is growing at 10%.   Seems to me that other areas took the threat seriously and are practicing proper viral hygiene.

 

Good

[Gary M]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

That's 100% of the reason why NY and North Jersey exploded, in addition to not heeding directions in early-mid March.

 

49 cases in Steuben county so far 12 hospitalized 1 death. Yet I can't go to my favorite bar. Stupid We are not NYC.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Possibly, but unlikely because you'd see a spike in deaths in South Jersey.  You can track it here.

 

Thanks, man!

 

[GG]

Where are the glaring headlines that daily Wuhan virus deaths declined by 36.8% in NYS yesterday?

 

I know that one day does not make a trend, but notable nonetheless.

[Gary M]

WTH

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/02/train-derails-usns-mercy-coronavirus/

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Well, at the very least we can neuter it, considering we're the top funder of it.

 

Cut off all funding.

 

 

All for forcing reforms.

[Scraps]

57 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

My point exactly. If you don't know what information anyone in the government received in these classified briefings, regarding the virus, then maybe you should just STFU about it until you do.

 

The existence of these meetings have been reported in the press.  The press asked for more details and got nothing for the agencies and spin from the WH.  The only times Trump has come clean has been under intense pressure and scrutiny, so I see know reason to stop questioning him.

 

Regardless, the issue was whether or not Trump's reaction back in Jan/Feb was adequate and clearly it was not.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Scraps
Duplicate posts

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Bob in Mich said:

 

Really?  For weeks you have criticized anyone here that has been posting dire predictions concerning this virus.  Certainly your right, and BuffaloGal, and Deek, Rhino, and everyone here saying this is not as bad as feared, have that right.  Are any of you yet ready to admit that you have been terribly wrong?

 

I just wonder if any of you have considered if you have caused anyone to actually get this virus.  After all you have been saying for weeks that this is not that bad and you have all been so critical of those saying this is going to be very bad.  You might feel that you have been quelling panic but I would like to know if any of you feel any responsibility or even guilt for minimizing this pandemic to the under educated here.

 

1. No, Bob, I have criticized people for fear mongering and dire predictions while offering no substantive data to back it up, and no willingness to engage in an intellectual discussion about it. I have clearly stated what I think will happen and why. I have provided data and analyses.

 

2. I clearly stated in the post you quoted, that I will be more than willing to admit I was wrong if the numbers turn out to be worse.

 

3. I have never minimized it. I have been very clear, consistent, and, IMO, rational in what I have stated.

 

And, no, I don't think calming people in a time of crisis makes things worse. My experience is that panic, blame, and fearmongering are what makes crises worse than they should be.

 

So, would you like to give your opinion as to what you think will happen and provide your supporting data?

 

 

[billsfan1959]

11 minutes ago, Scraps said:

The existence of these meetings have been reported in the press.  The press asked for more details and got nothing for the agencies and spin from the WH.  The only times Trump has come clean has been under intense pressure and scrutiny, so I see know reason to stop questioning him.

 

Regardless, the issue was whether or not Trump's reaction back in Jan/Feb was adequate and clearly it was not.

 

 

So, let me get this straight, you are upset that the press wasn't provided the details from classified meetings? Also, you have no idea of what information was provided to Trump and Congress in these briefings, yet you choose to Blame Trump.
 

And I am getting so tired of this mantra of Trump doing nothing in January and Februray. I asked @Gary Busey the following questions at least five times and he has yet to answer. I asked @Capcothe same questions and he refused to answer. Since you are making the same claims as they were, please take the time and answer the following questions for all of us.

 

1. At which point in January and February (your timeframe) should the administration and other leaders around the world have reasonably known the magnitude of what was coming worlwide?

2. What specific information are you basing your answer on?

 

Timeline

 

On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan

.

On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.

 

On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 

 

By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China

 

On Jan 20, First US case is reported

 

On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.

 

On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force

 

On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.

 

On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.

 

By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.

 

By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.

 

On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea

 

Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China

 

Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China

 

On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic

 

On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders

 

By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.

 

On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[GG]

Shocking advice

 

 

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Shocking advice

 

 

the only flaw in that design would be the gaps along side the nose. of which could easily be plugged.

[GG]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

the only flaw in that design would be the gaps along side the nose. of which could easily be plugged.

 

I think the primary goal is to keep your germs contained, not so much to keep others out.  If both people are wearing masks, the transmission risk is greatly reduced

[Foxx]

Just now, GG said:

 

I think the primary goal is to keep your germs contained, not so much to keep others out.  If both people are wearing masks, the transmission risk is greatly reduced

agreed. however not all will wear masks. again the remedy is simple.

[shoshin]

28 minutes ago, GG said:

Where are the glaring headlines that daily Wuhan virus deaths declined by 36.8% in NYS yesterday?

 

I know that one day does not make a trend, but notable nonetheless.

 

 

Up yesterday in NYS, declined in NYC though.