Let Josh be Josh?

[MAJBobby]

Just now, dorquemada said:

 

So i'll ask the dumb question, is that 25 yards in the air, or the 5 yard in the flat pass that Beasley takes for 30?  I'm straining a bit to recollect any completed passes that were in the air for 25 yards+ this year

Well his longest Air Yard Completion is 42.5 so it seems he has completed one

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Arbitrary?

 

In the air more than 30 yards...like a fly pattern or deep post....you know the plays to take the top off the defense?

We're trying but he's not hitting them.

That is NOT the Definition the Definition is a 25 yard pass

[JoPar_v2]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Nope cant be he has completed 10.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&rank=118&type=Passing&year=

What are you people defining as the "Deep" Ball?

that’s “big play” passes, i.e. any pass resulting in a 25 yard or more gain. So a swing pass to singletary that goes for 30 yards would qualify. Not exactly what we’re talking about here. 

[GG]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Well his longest Air Yard Completion is 42.5 so it seems he has completed one

 

I think that was the TD to Brown vs Jets.  I'm struggling to find many other completions that traveled more than 25 yards in the air.  The Angry Knox pass was about 15-20 yards

[Wayne Arnold]

52 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Lets see does that have to do with the 40MPH Winds?

 

47 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Carson Wentz completed 70% of his passes on the same day...

 

The wind stopped blowing for every Eagles offensive possession, obviously.

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Well his longest Air Yard Completion is 42.5 so it seems he has completed one

That is NOT the Definition the Definition is a 25 yard pass

 

I get what you're saying, but the fact is, nobody is afraid of Allen's deep ball this year, and are adjusting their Ds accordingly.  The first few games the Run O was better because foolish D coordinators were worried Allen might use his NFL's strongest arm to push the ball downfield. 

 

At the end of the day, what I'm saying is that Dabol isn't working out.  We're not using the personnel we have for their strengths, or if we are, we have a lot less talent that we thought.  I still don't get why we arent seeing more of Foster, there has to be something to that story.  I mean put him out there, he can drop the ball just as effectively as Kroft or Knox

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Well his longest Air Yard Completion is 42.5 so it seems he has completed one

That is NOT the Definition the Definition is a 25 yard pass

 

That's USA Today's definition.  

 

There's also stats that track air yards.  Are we not allowed to use that?

 

 

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

No, it wasn’t.

 

Huh.

 

So when someone asks at what point we conclude that Allen isn't good, and you reply with "don't hold your breath" and reference EJ, what exactly were you implying?

[Wayne Arnold]

49 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

When he no longer has a winning record? 

 

You mean like Tyrod Taylor? 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I think that was the TD to Brown vs Jets.  I'm struggling to find many other completions that traveled more than 25 yards in the air.  The Angry Knox pass was about 15-20 yards

 

Yeah that was 38 yards...most of it in the air so there's one.  

The Knox throw was an intermediate pass like you say.... 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

Does that say the distance the ball traveled? I don’t see it.

Well just using this https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2019/9

 

His Longest By Week shows he is hitting deep balls

Wk1 - 42.5

Wk2 - 38.3

Wk3 - 32.9

Wk4 - 37.9

Wk5 - 32.3

Wk 6 - Bye

Wk7 - 35.4

WK8 - 32.4

 

So that also then means there are 3 more big plays not accounted for to get to 10

1 minute ago, JoPar_v2 said:

that’s “big play” passes, i.e. any pass resulting in a 25 yard or more gain. So a swing pass to singletary that goes for 30 yards would qualify. Not exactly what we’re talking about here. 

And just posted the debunking of this thinking

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

I get what you're saying, but the fact is, nobody is afraid of Allen's deep ball this year, and are adjusting their Ds accordingly.  The first few games the Run O was better because foolish D coordinators were worried Allen might use his NFL's strongest arm to push the ball downfield. 

 

At the end of the day, what I'm saying is that Dabol isn't working out.  We're not using the personnel we have for their strengths, or if we are, we have a lot less talent that we thought.  I still don't get why we arent seeing more of Foster, there has to be something to that story.  I mean put him out there, he can drop the ball just as effectively as Kroft or Knox

 

Frank Gore is facing the 2nd most 8 men box....because we can't go downfield.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yeah that was 38 yards...most of it in the air so there's one.  

The Knox throw was an intermediate pass like you say.... 

 

Just posted 7 longest completed Air Yards.

 

Meaning there is 3 more not accounted for

[JoPar_v2]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's USA Today's definition.  

 

There's also stats that track air yards.  Are we not allowed to use that?

 

 

Exactly. Fact is we don’t need to agree on a specific definition - we all see the games and know exactly the type of plays we’re talking about here. And Allen has been horrendous week in week out throwing downfield. 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's USA Today's definition.  

 

There's also stats that track air yards.  Are we not allowed to use that?

 

 

 

That is the NFL Definition of deep passes

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yeah that was 38 yards...most of it in the air so there's one.  

The Knox throw was an intermediate pass like you say.... 

What I have been focusing on are the throws to receivers getting behind the defense and on the way to the house. He has missed all of those this season. The throw to Brown in game one was a back shoulder throw, and I'm not sure if it was intentional or not. Regardless, Brown hadn't gotten behind behind the defense. Nice play regardless, of course.

Edited October 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Wayne Arnold]

32 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Are you willing to be intellectually consistent and make the same judgment call as to the can't miss prospects drafted ahead of Allen, in Darnold and Mayfield? "I see ghosts" Darnold's ongoing pick tracker notched another 3, to make 7 over his last 2 games for starters, going along nicely with 8 (not a typo), sacks taken yesterday alone...Mayfield's W-L record is the inverse of Josh's at 2-5, but hey, who's counting? Unless you are willing to call the entire 2018 QB draft class a bust at this point, minus Lamar who's playing lights out right now, then you are unfairly singling out Josh's coming of age roller coaster ride that we're on, and not taking into account all of the other variables in play, together with the aforementioned peer comparison points.      

 

We should care about how Allen compares to every starting NFL Quarterback. Not just the ones drafted ahead of him in 2018.

 

Silly.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Wayne Arnold

[blacklabel]

59 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

At what point do we all admit that Josh Allen simply isn’t good enough?

 

Well, I dunno about the rest of youse, but I'm ready to send the kid packin' after 17 career starts. /s

 

Progress isn't linear. There are ups and downs. Every first round QB from 2018 has had both good and bad outings this season. None of them have arrived, they're all still working to get to where they wanna be.

 

And I thought most people knew that Allen has a lot of freedom to change plays, it's been talked about several times this season. They also sit and go through the plays and ditch anything that he doesn't like or doesn't think will work. 

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Huh.

 

So when someone asks at what point we conclude that Allen isn't good, and you reply with "don't hold your breath" and reference EJ, what exactly were you implying?

I thought my point was pretty clear. Even if Allen is bad, there will still be people who will argue otherwise (like they did for EJ and Tyrod) and call you a hater. It won’t be until the team moves on that they will finally accept that said QB was in fact not good.

[Dr.Sack]

If the defense continues its downward trajectory against the run Josh will need to turn into Aaron Rodgers to keep us in games. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Well, I dunno about the rest of youse, but I'm ready to send the kid packin' after 17 career starts. /s

 

Progress isn't linear. There are ups and downs. Every first round QB from 2018 has had both good and bad outings this season. None of them have arrived, they're all still working to get to where they wanna be.

 

And I thought most people knew that Allen has a lot of freedom to change plays, it's been talked about several times this season. They also sit and go through the plays and ditch anything that he doesn't like or doesn't think will work. 

Do they actually do that?  Does he get to throw out plays?  Audible?  I haven't seen that commented on.

[Mango]

15 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

The thing at issue is that if a D is worried about your deep passing attack, they can't stack 8 in the box every single play.  Josh Allen isn't making any D coordinators worried about that.  He will complete a couple per game that go for 25 yards but that's more the receiver getting YAC

 

 

Josh Allen is 9th in the league in "Intended Air Yards per Attempt" 

 

The issue isn't that we aren't trying. The issue is we aren't connecting on them. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2019/all#average-intended-yards

 

 

[Wayne Arnold]

1 minute ago, blacklabel said:

 

They also sit and go through the plays and ditch anything that he doesn't like or doesn't think will work. 

 

They’re gonna need a bigger ditch.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

That is the NFL Definition of deep passes

 

Actually the NFL's definition of a deep pass is anything over 15 yards.

Next Gen, the site you listed has it at 20 yards.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Actually the NFL's definition of a deep pass is anything over 15 yards.

Next Gen, the site you listed has it at 20 yards.

 

 

 

And then he has completed deep Balls unlike what people are saying.  What he isnt hitting are the Low % Go routes.  Maybe they should run some more of the seams and Digs he DOES complete

[Ramza86]

I dont mind him learning how to become a game manager. 

 

Because a great QB needs to become whatever is required to win each week.

 

Last year he couldnt hit a 5 yard slant. He has drastically improved his short passing game this off season.

 

A raw kid like this learned something in one offseason. It at least shows hes coachable and can improve his game.

 

Honestly i think we are at the point where just time will make him a better QB. Hopefully he has the right coaches to get him there.

 

 

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And then he has completed deep Balls unlike what people are saying.  What he isnt hitting are the Low % Go routes.  Maybe they should run some more of the seams and Digs he DOES complete

 

That would be very un-Daboll-like.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And then he has completed deep Balls unlike what people are saying.  What he isnt hitting are the Low % Go routes.  Maybe they should run some more of the seams and Digs he DOES complete

 

What's the reason why Frank Gore is getting the 2nd most 8 men boxes?  Would you do that against a team that can beat you over the top?

You need to have that threat they if they getting close the LOS that you can beat them over the top.  We aren't doing that see they keep stacking.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

That would be very un-Daboll-like.

 

I am also trying to figure out where this Josh has a great deep ball comes from anyway?  It has to be just because of his Arm because last years numbers showed he struggled with the Deep Routes too.

[blacklabel]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Do they actually do that?  Does he get to throw out plays?  Audible?  I haven't seen that commented on.

 

Yeah, Allen's spoken on it before. He and Daboll have sat down several times to go through the playbook and try to find what they think is gonna work for them. I don't think they completely get rid of plays, they might just put it on the backburner and use it when it seems like it'd work on a certain opponent or something.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What's the reason why Frank Gore is getting the 2nd most 8 men boxes?  Would you do that against a team that can beat you over the top?

You need to have that threat they if they getting close the LOS that you can beat them over the top.  We aren't doing that see they keep stacking.

The reason Frank Gore is getting 40% in the box is because when they run they are out of the 2 TE Set, and all the Big Guys piled into the middle.  

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I thought my point was pretty clear. Even if Allen is bad, there will still be people who will argue otherwise (like they did for EJ and Tyrod) and call you a hater. It won’t be until the team moves on that they will finally accept that said QB was in fact not good.

 

So in response to the question about the player, you made a comment about the fans.

 

You can see why that's not as clear as you intended.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What's the reason why Frank Gore is getting the 2nd most 8 men boxes?  Would you do that against a team that can beat you over the top?

You need to have that threat they if they getting close the LOS that you can beat them over the top.  We aren't doing that see they keep stacking.

Because when you have Lee Smith and Knox (who seems to forget how to catch) in the game yeah that puts 8 defenders in the Box.  Go look at the Formations Bills RUN out of

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

Well, I see it both ways............we hate his gunslinger throws that get picked, but we hate the Tryhard Taylor approach also. Gonna be an interesting rest of the season!

 

WE don't. You might. I want him throwing it as much as possible.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Yeah, Allen's spoken on it before. He and Daboll have sat down several times to go through the playbook and try to find what they think is gonna work for them. I don't think they completely get rid of plays, they might just put it on the backburner and use it when it seems like it'd work on a certain opponent or something.

I nee to go back and watch some of the earlier games where he came on in the fourth quarters, what plays were called, etc.  Seems to me he's much more decisive in those cases.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I am also trying to figure out where this Josh has a great deep ball comes from anyway?  It has to be just because of his Arm because last years numbers showed he struggled with the Deep Routes too.

 

I haven't looked at the stats, but my guess is that Josh took more downfield shots last year, thus completed more downfield shots last year.

 

This offense has missed Foster.

 

I don't know what the hell is going on with him.  Is it that he's lazy?  Is it that McDermott just doesn't like him?  His lack of snaps is perplexing to me.  Whatever the root of it is, the result is that Allen doesn't have a deep threat if he's not on the field.

 

Allen improved at the short to intermediate passes.  That's where games are won.  Even by the best QBs/teams.

 

If Daboll would call a game that makes sense and properly utilize the players who ARE on the field, I think we'd see this offense be a lot more productive.

 

Daboll is the biggest problem on offense ... by a long shot.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Carson Wentz completed 70% of his passes on the same day...

 

All screens pretty much.

[dorquemada]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I haven't looked at the stats, but my guess is that Josh took more downfield shots last year, thus completed more downfield shots last year.

 

This offense has missed Foster.

 

I don't know what the hell is going on with him.  Is it that he's lazy?  Is it that McDermott just doesn't like him?  His lack of snaps is perplexing to me.  Whatever the root of it is, the result is that Allen doesn't have a deep threat if he's not on the field.

 

Allen improved at the short to intermediate passes.  That's where games are won.  Even by the best QBs/teams.

 

If Daboll would call a game that makes sense and properly utilize the players who ARE on the field, I think we'd see this offense be a lot more productive.

 

Daboll is the biggest problem on offense ... by a long shot.

 

Agreed 100%.  When Foster is playing, teams have to respect the deep threat.  All this smug, too-cute, multi TE sets where everyone is shoulder to shoulder like the 1902 NY Giants is just the dumbest thing in this day and age.  Spread the O out, get Foster on the edge, and complete a couple passes early, stop the safeties from cheating up

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Because when you have Lee Smith and Knox (who seems to forget how to catch) in the game yeah that puts 8 defenders in the Box.  Go look at the Formations Bills RUN out of

 

You're all about "trends", especially when it's going down and Lee Smith's snaps have been going down.....

So you're going to be firm that it has nothing to do with Allen being able to beat teams over the top....50% is Lee Smith and the other 50% is Knox?

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I haven't looked at the stats, but my guess is that Josh took more downfield shots last year, thus completed more downfield shots last year.

 

This offense has missed Foster.

 

I don't know what the hell is going on with him.  Is it that he's lazy?  Is it that McDermott just doesn't like him?  His lack of snaps is perplexing to me.  Whatever the root of it is, the result is that Allen doesn't have a deep threat if he's not on the field.

 

Allen improved at the short to intermediate passes.  That's where games are won.  Even by the best QBs/teams.

 

If Daboll would call a game that makes sense and properly utilize the players who ARE on the field, I think we'd see this offense be a lot more productive.

 

Daboll is the biggest problem on offense ... by a long shot.

Josh had an accuracy rating of 40% on balls that traveled 21 yards by air last year.  Football Outsiders I cant find if they do this real time or wait until the offseason so hard to compare

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

[Wayne Arnold]

13 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Yeah, Allen's spoken on it before. He and Daboll have sat down several times to go through the playbook and try to find what they think is gonna work for them. 

 

BREAKING: Photo of Daboll’s most recently-updated playbook heading into Week 9 has been leaked.

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Wayne Arnold