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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

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On 12/23/2019 at 3:25 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t get why people work so hard to try to make passing a bad thing.  We won’t be a better team with Matt Ryan?  Last year, 5 of the top 8 in passing yards had winning records.

 

Passing is not a bad thing.  Not at all.  I like passing.  I'd be happy to see more passing. 

I like the oooohs and aaaaaaahs as well as anyone

 

It's just that people get all revved up over 300 yd games, and it's really kind of an arbitrary number that doesn't necessarily tell you that much.  It used to be weakly correlated with losing, now it's weakly correlated with winning - very weakly.

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Passing is not a bad thing.  Not at all.  I like passing.  I'd be happy to see more passing. 

I like the oooohs and aaaaaaahs as well as anyone

 

It's just that people get all revved up over 300 yd games, and it's really kind of an arbitrary number that doesn't necessarily tell you that much.  It used to be weakly correlated with losing, now it's weakly correlated with winning - very weakly.

 

Need some kind of offense/QB efficiency rating that means more toward a winning (or losing) performance.  The current metrics aren't really very good at telling that story.

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58 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Need some kind of offense/QB efficiency rating that means more toward a winning (or losing) performance.  The current metrics aren't really very good at telling that story.

It’s called adjusted net yards per attempt.

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15 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

this !

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41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

^for detailed explanation as well as why passer rating is basically useless, this is a good place to start- https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

I have agreed with this for a long time.  I like QBR better, but it is flawed also.  

 

I like AYN/A  but when you run that stat against QBR and Passer Rating.....the list of guys who are the NFL's "leading passers" doesn't really change much.  Mahomes is 1st in the NFL at AYN/A but 5th in QB Rating.  Lamar Jackson is 3rd in both.  Josh Allen is in the 20's in both.  

 

I know QBR tries to take into account the context of game situations...but that is arbitrary to the person doing the scoring.

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22 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I have agreed with this for a long time.  I like QBR better, but it is flawed also.  

 

I like AYN/A  but when you run that stat against QBR and Passer Rating.....the list of guys who are the NFL's "leading passers" doesn't really change much.  Mahomes is 1st in the NFL at AYN/A but 5th in QB Rating.  Lamar Jackson is 3rd in both.  Josh Allen is in the 20's in both.  

 

I know QBR tries to take into account the context of game situations...but that is arbitrary to the person doing the scoring.

Best way imo to get a formula for predictive W/L would be ANY/A differential; takes into account both sides of the team. 
 

 

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6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Ok....first...I must have misunderstood what you were saying with Mahomes....so, let's dismiss that...no one here (besides me) wants to discuss Mahomes.

 

Regarding Allen, I had mentioned elsewhere I think in this long thread, that regarding drops....I have seen Allen throw some passes that you might be grading as catchable that I think are actually really tough to catch....what I mean is that Allen will throw a very high velocity, NON tight sprialed knuckleball from time to time and often, not right on the numbers.....that is a ball that is really hard to catch because it isn't going to cleanly fit into the hands of the reciever and it is very likely going to need to be aided by being brought into the body.  When that ball is off the nubmers, it's often off the hands, and into should pads, helmet or just plain through the hands.  Someone tried to say guys field punts that are wobbling like this....and that is NOT the same thing at all.  

 

Also....I do see you try and make a call on drops, then add those as catches to see what that brings the PCT up to.....1.  It's still low. 2.  Even teams that drop at a lower rate...if you adjusted everyone, you'll never come close to dressing up Allens completion numbers to something top half of leauge.  You kind of negate the idea that adding better targets is going to make Allen an upper echelon QB when it comes to Comp %....your drop pct add on proves that even if you had guys on your team that never dropped anything, Allen isn't completing passes at top half rate.

 

I'm not arguing that Allen can't be a winner (clearly, the Bills are winning in 2019 with Allen) but he is NOT the guy that raises the talent around him...you might even say that at times with his poor ball placement, he negates the talent around him wiht lost YAC etc. .....but makes up for hit with his incredible escapability and running.  

 

......The Bills are 1-5 this year against teams who started a QB with a higher QB rating than Allen.....Dak Prescot was the win.

 

First of all, drops are a stat tracked by the NFL and they're extremely conservative... only the most obvious ones. The whole ball velocity too much argument goes out the window for these because they're blatant.

 

And the Bills have a higher drop percentage of any team in the NFL.

 

These aren't numbers I'm making up.

 

You're a Chiefs fan?

 

If the Bills had the same drop percentage as the Chiefs, Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.5%. He would also pretty naturally have a higher YPA, too... at the very least. Is 60.5% good enough? Well, right now 58.8% seems to be good enough as far as this season goes, but 60.5% would obviously just look better optically.

 

And then imagine if the Bills had the drop percentage of the Falcons at 1.1%... Allen's completion % goes up to 62.5%

 

And remember... those stats only account for blatant drops, not the catchable ones you think I'm talking about.

 

But Merry Christmas nonetheless. :thumbsup:

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20 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

Cian Fahey hates Josh Allen because he loved Tyrod. He is also probably the biggest joke in the football analyst business. 

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22 hours ago, pop gun said:

Cian is a hack, terrible at his job!

I agree with everything except the bolded, he is the franchise guy, it's really not debatable at this point. Beane and Mcd are not going to invest, 2 let alone 5 or 6 years on Allen if he isn't the franchise going forward.  

 

I'm pretty close to agreeing with you that Allen is the guy.  Let's just say if he fails to continue improving over the next couple of years I'll be very surprised. 

 

Bottom line is I think he's the guy but he still has to demonstrate it over the next 2 years.

 

 

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This is the still a defensive team  Lets get some more talent on the offense and see what it looks like before its time to panic with Josh Allen. 

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This team is going to start dominating the league in the next year or two.  Allen is going to be at the forefront of that.  You guys are watching a dominating franchise QB grow right in front of your eyes.

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3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'm pretty close to agreeing with you that Allen is the guy.  Let's just say if he fails to continue improving over the next couple of years I'll be very surprised. 

 

Bottom line is I think he's the guy but he still has to demonstrate it over the next 2 years.

 

 

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

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6 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

This is why I don't understand those that seem to be rooting against Allen.  At least it looks to me like that's what they're doing.

 

This is the dilemma facing every team with a young, potential franchise QB.  They have to make a bet early in their career whether they're the guy of not and then build an offense around them.  And I agree that the Bill's brain trust, which has seen Allen up close a lot more then we have, believe he is the guy.  And I also think that based on what I've seen he's the guy. But the risk is that if he isn't the Bills are SCREWED big time. 

 

As you note the last thing anybody wants to do is start over at QB.  That's why I struggle to wrap my head around some of the posters who are so damn negative.  They seem almost gleeful when Allen struggles.  Don't they understand what a disaster it would be if Allen stopped improving?

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

Yeah...plenty of teams have shown that's not how the league works, not even close. And one of the top guys? He hasn't even proven to be a consistent starter, let alone a franchise guy. Not one true franchise QB consistently plays like he does. Find me the one other franchise QB that cannot throw for 300 yards even once. You'll say it's not important, but it's a result of being a successful QB more often than not, and it's a bar franchise QB's hit quite often (as opposed to absolutely never).

 

Franchise QB's also don't consistently disappear for large stretches of games, and just like last year, Allen holds onto the ball longer than any QB in the entire league, just as he has the worst accuracy when throwing the ball 20 yards+ in the air in the league for the 2nd straight season. He's still a sub-60% passer, and still takes too many sacks that are his fault. 

Franchise QB's need to be able to shoulder the offensive burden and for an entire game when the defense or run game isn't there. They need to be able to put fear into a team's defense, not inspire confidence in opposing defenses that they can play tight man to man and stack the box every game. If an opponent's biggest and only real worry is how to contain runs," that's not a great sign...especially since defenses have figured out how to contain him better (last year he ran for 120 more yards on 20 less carries & 3 less games while running for only 1 less TD.

What more does he have to demonstrate? Quite a lot actually. Being able to win games that the defense isn't completely dominating or overcompensating for your weaknesses would be one thing... Or being able to completely dominate the league's worst teams instead of barely skating by with come from behind victories? Hit wide open WR's more frequently... We would've won the Baltimore game if he didn't miss so many targets that had their man flat out beat in the 1st half. Those 2 nice passes he threw against the Pats last week? Yeah, he should've had several of those against Baltimore. 

And being able to identify open targets by progressing through his reads (which to be fair, he sometimes manages to do pretty well), hang on to the ball better (just because he only lost a handful of fumbles, we've been EXTREMELY fortunate considering the sheer volume of fumbles he's actually had!) and not stalling out drives the moment we stop rushing the ball. Also, being able to take advantage of the turnovers & great field position the defense constantly sets us up with would makes us 100x more dangerous. Instead, we frequently go 3 & out or barely manage field goals, rarely punishing opponents for turnovers. 

There's a LOT I'd like to still see, so hopefully I can be one of those fans that isn't biting my nails, heart racing every drive not sure if he's going to make some game killing mistake, waste a drive or barely avoid a sack & run for a 1st down. I want to sit down & know that whatever my team does, win or lose, the QB isn't dragging everybody else's great performance down. You never feel that way watching a Chiefs or Ravens game. If the games are close, you can almost feel that it's just a matter of time before their offenses figure it out & put up more points. The Bills on the other hand, you're more likely to see them do nothing right out of half time, and maybe at some point they'll wake up in the 4th, get a few drives extended by penalties & maybe make it interesting.

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12 hours ago, pop gun said:

I'm sorry but these guys aren't going to invest 4 years in a guy just to start over in year 5. They would be on hot seat and it would be a tough sell to the rest of the players. I could almost understand that position if Josh had absolutely puked all over himself last year. He didn't therefor he was/is the franchise for the next 15 years. They aren't waiting 2 more years and are not going to kick him to the curb after 4 years and start over at the QB position. There is no 2 more years to prove himself with growth, what more does he have to demonstrate? He is already a top QB, get him some more help and watch and enjoy the ride! 

 

 

Of course they might kick him to the curb in year five.

 

It really is simple. It'll depend on his play. There absolutely is two more years to prove himself with growth if they think he's got to show more. "What more does he have to demonstrate?" you ask. Jeez, everything, or at least the important things. Our offense has been poor and a lot of that rests on Allen. He's got to show he's a franchise QB and he hasn't done that yet.

 

He is improving, though. IMO the signs are good. But he is by no means a top QB at this time. He's a guy who's shown that he maybe has a possibility of being a top QB with time.

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5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Yeah...plenty of teams have shown that's not how the league works, not even close. And one of the top guys? He hasn't even proven to be a consistent starter, let alone a franchise guy. Not one true franchise QB consistently plays like he does. Find me the one other franchise QB that cannot throw for 300 yards even once. You'll say it's not important, but it's a result of being a successful QB more often than not, and it's a bar franchise QB's hit quite often (as opposed to absolutely never).

 

Franchise QB's also don't consistently disappear for large stretches of games, and just like last year, Allen holds onto the ball longer than any QB in the entire league, just as he has the worst accuracy when throwing the ball 20 yards+ in the air in the league for the 2nd straight season. He's still a sub-60% passer, and still takes too many sacks that are his fault. 

Franchise QB's need to be able to shoulder the offensive burden and for an entire game when the defense or run game isn't there. They need to be able to put fear into a team's defense, not inspire confidence in opposing defenses that they can play tight man to man and stack the box every game. If an opponent's biggest and only real worry is how to contain runs," that's not a great sign...especially since defenses have figured out how to contain him better (last year he ran for 120 more yards on 20 less carries & 3 less games while running for only 1 less TD.

What more does he have to demonstrate? Quite a lot actually. Being able to win games that the defense isn't completely dominating or overcompensating for your weaknesses would be one thing... Or being able to completely dominate the league's worst teams instead of barely skating by with come from behind victories? Hit wide open WR's more frequently... We would've won the Baltimore game if he didn't miss so many targets that had their man flat out beat in the 1st half. Those 2 nice passes he threw against the Pats last week? Yeah, he should've had several of those against Baltimore. 

And being able to identify open targets by progressing through his reads (which to be fair, he sometimes manages to do pretty well), hang on to the ball better (just because he only lost a handful of fumbles, we've been EXTREMELY fortunate considering the sheer volume of fumbles he's actually had!) and not stalling out drives the moment we stop rushing the ball. Also, being able to take advantage of the turnovers & great field position the defense constantly sets us up with would makes us 100x more dangerous. Instead, we frequently go 3 & out or barely manage field goals, rarely punishing opponents for turnovers. 

There's a LOT I'd like to still see, so hopefully I can be one of those fans that isn't biting my nails, heart racing every drive not sure if he's going to make some game killing mistake, waste a drive or barely avoid a sack & run for a 1st down. I want to sit down & know that whatever my team does, win or lose, the QB isn't dragging everybody else's great performance down. You never feel that way watching a Chiefs or Ravens game. If the games are close, you can almost feel that it's just a matter of time before their offenses figure it out & put up more points. The Bills on the other hand, you're more likely to see them do nothing right out of half time, and maybe at some point they'll wake up in the 4th, get a few drives extended by penalties & maybe make it interesting.

 

The QB, who has scored 29 of the team's 35 TDs this year, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, whose top 2 WRs are both having career seasons despite playing in the most complex offense they've ever seen, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, who has the most 4th quarter comebacks and is among the highest rated 4th quarter passers in the NFL, is dragging everybody else down?

 

I can't take the rest of this post even remotely serious in light of that one absurd statement.

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29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The QB, who has scored 29 of the team's 35 TDs this year, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, whose top 2 WRs are both having career seasons despite playing in the most complex offense they've ever seen, is dragging everybody else down?

 

The QB, who has the most 4th quarter comebacks and is among the highest rated 4th quarter passers in the NFL, is dragging everybody else down?

 

I can't take the rest of this post even remotely serious in light of that one absurd statement.

 

This is Dingus you're talking to. It's not like he's a prime example of logic and cogent thought.

 

 

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There is a common misconception on this board that a second year QB should be done progressing and improving.  That's just misguided at best.  Having a young QB in year two be all that he will ever be is rare.  For every Mahomes you see, there are a dozen who have not reached full potential yet, or that catch fire the first year or two and then regress. 

 

If you are going to throw Allen out already, then you are going to throw out Mayfield and Darnold, because they struggle at times as well.  You would have thrown out a guy like Kelly back in the day.  Or Favre.  Or Aikman.  Or a whole lot of QB's that went on to become good to great. 

 

In evaluating Allen, what you want to ask is whether he is showing progression.  And he is; no objective appraisal of the kid would say otherwise.  His completion percentage is up over last year for those who obsess on that.  He is throwing a lot less picks than last year.  He is cutting own on the really stupid, throw back across the field throws (my personal issue I had with him; can't say how many times I screamed at the TV Don't throw that pass!!).   But he has improvements to make.  He needs to be more precise in throwing; get the ball to a precise spot that allows more YAC.  He still needs to improve on pre-snap recognition and getting the ball out quicker on hot reads (although some of that is designing plays to give him the hot read).  He needs to protect the ball more when he runs and cut down on fumbles.  He needs to continue improving reading coverages.  All things that one would expect in second year guys.

 

What the ongoing conversations on Allen reflect is the difference between eating at the McDonald's drive through, and eating at, say, Salvatore's.  Those who are more negative about Allen are the McDonald's types; they want their food, they want it right now, and if they have to wait more than 5 minutes in the drive through line they start honking and gesturing and show their impatience.  It has to be the way they want it right now!  Those who are more advocates of Allen (like me) are the Salvatore's type.  We recognize it takes time to make a truly good meal, and we're willing to wait longer for the chefs to take their time and create a masterpiece. 

 

Watching this kid, and the way he performs in the fourth quarter especially, makes me think we have our guy.  I expect we'll be rooting for Allen for the next decade or more.  Will he become and all time great?  Maybe not.  Will he fail miserably?  Probably not.  But this board honestly needs to get away from the constant crap about saying there are those who say Allen cannot do anything wrong, or those who say Allen is a guaranteed star.  Neither is correct, and both completely misstate what the vast majority of people around here feel:  that he is a young QB with a whole lot of potential that we're watching develop.

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1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is Dingus you're talking to. It's not like he's a prime example of logic and cogent thought.

 

 

 

Dingus made sense on Tyrod and EJ, he sounds pretty lost on Allen 

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