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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

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6 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Way up and way down isn't data; nor are wins and losses when we're talking about QBs.  You are a troll and you've spent way too many characters (although it looks as if you've copied/pasted) in proving so.  I've looked at real stats and your assertion is pure crap.  Good day, troll.  

 

Amen, brother.

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33 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I trimmed your post to what was most important.

 

First, you, self admittedly, are not very good at prognostications and were wrong about Allen. It does beg the question, "If you you were wrong about him before, why in the world should anyone think you would be right about your new prediction of his demise?"

 

Second: A little food for thought on making predictions from statistics: When you look at a group of QBs and chart group statistics, you get group results, which will always give you numbers that somewhat apply to "most" QBs in that group - but not all. Which is why all you end up with is phrases such as what you used, "most guys," "some guys'" "a few guys," "a ton of dudes,"...

 

It is a pure actuarial method that is good for predicting probabilities along group lines, much like what insurance companies do. However, it provides no useful data for predicting probabilites at an individual level. For example, actuarial statistics might say that men in the US have a life expectancy of 76.1 years. It does not mean that you, individually, have a life expectancy of 76.1 years. Your life expectancy is based on variables unique to you.

 

I could explain it in much more detail; however, the point is that you can run all the numbers you want on every QB that has ever played the game and it will provide you with absolutely no relevant information as to how successful Josh Allen may or may not be. None. The level of success he attains will rest soley on variables unique to him.

 

So, why don't you stop coming on this site to keep telling us how bad Allen is going to be, because it is based on nothing but your opinion - which, I hate to give any credibility to at all by responding to it. However, I could not allow you to go on telling everyone that your conclusions are based on actual data, when they are not. They are merely opinions and likely to be as wrong as your previous ones.

 

 

 

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen?  I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here...

 

No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history.  If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything.  

 

You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

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6 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

 

A method that has no relevance, whatsoever, to supporting your thoughts is the same as having no method at all. You are offering nothing more than an opinion, which, like I said, is probably as likely to be wrong as your previous ones. To offer an opinion that you think Allen has reached his potential or close to it - which is what you said, is just that, an opinion. To say it is based on data is to show a complete ignorance on the analyses of data.

 

You showed up on this site the day after the 2017 draft ended. I doubt that was a coincidence. The likely bet is that you were a "pseudo" Bills fan prior to the draft, got upset when they failed to draft Mahomes, and then switched allegiances. That alone should be enough for everyone on this board to ignore you. You trolled this board after that draft and after the Bills drafted Allen.

 

You may have engaged in actual football discussions here and there; however, to come on this board and announce to everyone that you feel Allen has pretty much reached his potential and that there is a possibility he may regress, and claim it is based on some actual data, is nothing more than trolling, and really speaks less about wanting to engage in legitimate discussions and more about trying to meet your own psychological needs - as pathetic as they may be.

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10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

Ok....Gugny asked about my data.  ....so, I work a job where I sit for 12 hours at a time and monitor a transportation overlay computer system....it mostly runs smooth but sometimes it doesn't and that's why I have a job....to handle things when it doens't.  ......I have a TON of time to try and pass and so the other night at work, I started looking at several random QBs first 16 STARTS in the NFL, then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was.  I charted Several.  I can post if you'd like. 

 

I'm all about football data.  So I would encourage you to post.  Not here; start a new thread.

I would encourage focusing on the modern game of football, say in the last 20 years. 

 

Bubby Brister and Dan Marino are historically interesting, but possibly not too relevant given the massive changes in how both the college passing game, and the NFL game, have changed today.

 

It may be a difficult data set to generate - if a guy is good right out of the gate, there's not too much room to improve.  If a guy is bad right out of the gate, teams may move on.

 

But I'd be interested to see it.

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5 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....did you read what I wrote?  I think just about everyone stopped once they got to the part where I suggest most guys are done with major improvements after 16 games and you all just assumed that I must have said Allen is done developing and didn't read any further.  

 

I certainly read the entire post and it's an entire contradiction that draws zero conclusions as to if we have seen the best from Allen, if he will regress, stay the same, or get significantly better. Your post prior is the one where you state and these are your exact words: " it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on". The most confusing part of all this is that you don't seem to understand what Josh Allen's stats are for his first 16 games and his last 16 games. Did you forget that he only started 11 games last year? As I stated, with 5 games to go still, Allen so far falls in the category of QB's who have improved dramatically over his first 16 games.I mean heck, if the Allen we are seeing now (last 11 games) is the Allen we can expect in the future but slightly improved, then we're talking about legitimate franchise QB. I also don't think your thesis accounts for Allen being the one QB of all the recent QB's drafted that came into the league with the most to learn and longest development time. If any QB will continue to improve as he progresses through years 2,3,4 etc. it is Allen.

 

On 12/26/2019 at 9:05 PM, Zerovoltz said:

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

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3 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

 

If you turn out to be wrong? You already are wrong based on your first 16 games to next 16 games theory. Allen has improved in his 11 starts after his first 16 starts already. And if Allen never improves another iota beyond his current 11, while somewhat disappointing, he's still reached that low level franchise QB benchmark like a Eli Manning, Stafford or Newton. But if he improves just a bit, which I guess you think he might, then he's definitely a legitimate franchise QB.

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3 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen?  I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here...

 

No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history.  If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything.  

 

You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

 

I stayed out of this for a bit to see where it was going.  Here is my impression.

 

You imply that Allen sucks and will always suck based on some data points that you collected about some old ancient history QBs and some newer non franchise QBs.  Its like you completely skipped the current NFL starters.  Wait on that though.

 

You imply Allen sucks and will always suck.  People call you out on it and then you go into... but wait I said he COULD be an outlier.  You can't criticize our players and then not take criticism for it.  That's not how this works.  Just say what you believe and freaking argue it.

 

As for your data points.  Why don't you take some QBs that are current and look at their first 16 games vs 16 games say 4 years later.  That would be way more relevant than some QB from 20 years ago.  I don't mean pick just Flacco either.  Let me tell you why your data and analysis suck.  Its because you are biased and picked data based on your bias to prove yourself.  What were Russel Wilsons numbers first 16 against 16 say year 4.  What were Big Bens.  What were Drew Brees.  What were Alex Smith in his first 16 vs when he was coached by Harbaugh forward.  Do them all.

 

What you did was choose old QBs that came in the league slinging and continued to sling and some newer QBs that came in the league mediocre and stayed mediocre.  Of course the data is going to show that... because that's what happened.  If you noticed the QBs that I named... those are QBs that I remember that came in decent but then improved a lot.  I didn't look.  Its just off biased memory. 

 

This is why you should take all the current starters that have played at least a certain number of years and do them all.  Then show the work.  Not just some "random" QBs that aren't really random but chosen specifically to prove yourself.  I imagine the data will show something similar but you'll have more than just a few outliers.  That's because most QBs that make it to the NFL never become franchise QBs.  This is true and has always been true.  So really, the data is meaningless because you aren't showing anything that people don't already know.

 

As for me... I think Allen has improved a great deal already.  He just needs to continue.  If he plateaus where he is at now then he isn't going to make it to where we want him to.  I don't think he is anywhere near his plateau though.

Edited by Scott7975
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7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

You imply Allen sucks and will always suck.  People call you out on it and then you go into... but wait I said he COULD be an outlier.  You can't criticize our players and then not take criticism for it.  That's not how this works.  Just say what you believe and freaking argue it.

 

I like how he starts paragraphs with: "Some unpleasant things to consider" and  "something else that should be of concern"  and then asks what bad things he has said of Allen? As if we are dumb and can't read through the lines.

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23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

If you turn out to be wrong? You already are wrong based on your first 16 games to next 16 games theory. Allen has improved in his 11 starts after his first 16 starts already. And if Allen never improves another iota beyond his current 11, while somewhat disappointing, he's still reached that low level franchise QB benchmark like a Eli Manning, Stafford or Newton. But if he improves just a bit, which I guess you think he might, then he's definitely a legitimate franchise QB.


Zero also thought the Chiefs were going to go perfect 19-0 this year so I wouldn’t take him so seriously. 

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4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

Whether they quit is on them, but their success or lack impacts whether we take raincoats or make investments, ie their cred.  So your cred is low, based on recent predictions.

 

Quote

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....

 

Zerovoltz and again, not liking to throw terms like "troll" around, but this is highly disingenuous of you. 

 

You said:

"...some unpleasant things to consider....The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year......The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list..............something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on."

 

You said straight out you considered it highly probable that Josh Allen will be who he is now as a QB with just minor improvement for the rest of his career.

 

To caveat that with "it's not certain, but probable" is sophistry.  We all know the saw "nothing is certain but death and taxes", nevertheless when a man says "it is probable", he is generally (and rightly) held to be saying what he believes.

 

Just Own It.  That's what you believe.  Don't come here, say it, then when called on it, Backtrack and Weasel Word.  If you want respect here, Own Your Words.

 

You also said: "The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020."  We all know that as Allen goes, so go the Bills...and I also believe that's where you were going with your "list of QB's that the Bills have defeated is a really bad list".  You're strongly implying that when the Bills play a stronger schedule with better QBs next year, the Bills offense and Allen won't have the firepower to keep up.  Again, just Own Your Words and the meaning behind them. 

 

Don't Post and Weasel.

 

Quote

I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen? 

 

See above.  Again, if you want respect here, Earn it - own what you said and what you strongly implied.  You acknowledged the possibility that Allen may continue to develop by saying "it's not certain" he won't develop, but you framed it as "it is probable" that he won't. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Don't Post and Weasel.

 

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

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38 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

 

It always has been from the start IMO.

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22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Direct quote from you...

 

8 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

......I did not say ALL QB.....are done....I then brought up examples of guys...who like Allen....made dramatic improvements after their first 16.  I didn't say he was done developing....I said he could be an exception....Not sure what you think I should have said?  That it's a foregone conclusion that given his current trajectory, Allen will be the ulitmate QB ever in 5 more starts?  That he's already the best?  What am I missing here?

 

Your statement was that most QBs are what they were for their first 16 games.

 

Allen's already pretty clearly improved immensely from his first 16 games.

 

Are you implying where he is right now is the outlier and he's going to regress back to what he was for his first 16 games?

 

Or that his significant improvement after the first 16 games is the most he will likely improve?

 

The 2nd here seems to be what you're saying based off the quote above... even though Allen's already proven the outlier of your study. Both of those arguments seem ridiculous. Maybe you did a comprehensive study of all QBs and those were your findings, but even if you did, Allen is already proving to be an exception to your rule with the amount he's improved after 16 games, so bringing up that analysis serves no purpose whatsoever in the context of discussing Allen unless your purpose is to troll the fans of a rival team.

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6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast?  Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment?  I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again.  

 

.....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop.  I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time.  I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting.  Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen?  I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here...

 

No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history.  If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything.  

 

You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not.  ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it.  I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

 

Again... even here you're acknowledging Allen has been an outlier much of his life and practically admitting (begrudgingly it seems) that he's pretty likely an outlier in the case of your study--which he already pretty much is given his significant improvement after your benchmark of his first 16 games--so why even bother bringing the study up at all if it's irrelevant to Allen, the subject of this thread?

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And the wheels on the bus go round and round round and round 

 

or

 

this is the song that never ends 

 

 

just a thought 💭 

 

who was the guy who said threads over 50 pages were too long to read?

 

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2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's where I'm at. I feel like @Zerovoltz has jumped the shark. If you're gonna make these proclamations on the message board of a team in which you have no rooting interest, at least own your words and state what you believe. 

 

I used to have a certain level of respect for the information and analysis provided, but it's become grating and has the appearance of an agenda.

 

And on a personal level; as much as I question Allen, there's something unsettling about an outsider using every post to deride the Bills QB. "Only family can make fun of family" type deal.

 

TBH all the stuff where people make sweeping pronouncements, good and bad, kind of grates on me - whether it's "Baby Superman" or "Allen sucks"

 

I'm not even Hopeful again yet (joke), but the thing that encourages me most is what people around him say.  Yeah, yeah, I know, no one is gonna throw their teammate under the bus.  It just sounds different from these guys sometimes.  Example.  17 Weeks Uninterrupted with Cole Beasley. They're talking about resting vs playing for the playoffs and Cole is talking back and forth about each way (about 20 min in)....then he says kind of quietly "If Josh is out there, I want to be out there with him". 

 

That just sounded as though it came from the heart. 

 

And yeah, I know that good teammates aren't going to throw their QB under the bus, but these guys just seem to offer up too much when they don't have to for it not to be genuine.

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On 12/27/2019 at 12:05 AM, Zerovoltz said:

....some unpleasant things to consider....

 

The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year.  The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen.  Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott.

 

The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list.  It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won.

 

The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D.  The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team.  I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances.

 

It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while.

 

.......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be.  Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts.  INT % tends to stay about the same.  It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on.

 

Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020.

 

I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher.  He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

You're literally a clickbait poster. Your predictions are shitey and you're way too full of yourself. You're essentially Max Kellerman. 

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH all the stuff where people make sweeping pronouncements, good and bad, kind of grates on me - whether it's "Baby Superman" or "Allen sucks"

 

I'm not even Hopeful again yet (joke), but the thing that encourages me most is what people around him say.  Yeah, yeah, I know, no one is gonna throw their teammate under the bus.  It just sounds different from these guys sometimes.  Example.  17 Weeks Uninterrupted with Cole Beasley. They're talking about resting vs playing for the playoffs and Cole is talking back and forth about each way (about 20 min in)....then he says "If Josh is out there, I want to be out there with him". 

 

That just sounded as though it came from the heart. 

 

And yeah, I know that good teammates aren't going to throw their QB under the bus, but these guys just seem to offer up too much when they don't have to for it not to be genuine.

I fully believe his teammates love him. The comments always come across as genuine. Beasley said something along the lines of going to war with Allen, etc after the Dallas game. He's a football player to quote Romo. Nothing a team respects more than a QB willing to put himself on the line for the team. And there doesn't appear to be anything to dislike personally.(As well as we can know a guy we've never spent time with.)

 

Not sure what it means in the grand scheme of things, but there's zero doubt in my mind the team is 100% on board. I'm sure the receivers get frustrated on occasion by some of the errant throws, but it's minor.

 

We'll see what happens long term, but it's certainly a good sign. NOW; all that goodwill won't mean much if he doesn't progress, but he's got a locker room full of guys in his corner.

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On 12/26/2019 at 7:16 PM, K-Apps said:


I tend to agree with this take, Allen’s footwork and lack of quickly progressing coverage and manipulating matchups will be things to watch if can take that next jump as a QB.

 

This article is somewhat concerning to say the least. Lots of criticism of Josh's footwork and poor anticipation with accompanying video evidence but here are some of the other money quotes for those too lazy to click the link.

 

On taking too many sacks:

 

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The Bills rank 24th in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders, while the offensive line ranks fifth in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric. The offensive line is doing its job, but you wouldn’t know by looking at Allen’s sack totals.

 

On accuracy:

 

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But the most concerning issue for Allen is, of course, his accuracy. He ranks dead last in completion percentage. Now, completion percentage isn’t the best measure for accuracy as it doesn’t account for drops (the Bills receivers have dropped more passes than all but two teams) or how far downfield a quarterback is throwing, but Allen also ranks poorly in the accuracy metrics that do. He ranks 32nd in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. Only four quarterbacks have a lower “completion percentage over expectation” — David Blough, Dwayne Haskins, Gardner Minshew and Jared Goff — per Next Gen Stats.

 

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Allen has, however, improved in the intermediate range, where he’s completing passes at a rate higher than the league average...But everywhere else on the field, Allen’s accuracy has been scattershot. His deep-ball accuracy has been particularly bad and has cost the Bills some big plays in recent weeks. Allen ranks 27th on throws over 10 yards, per Sports Info Solutions.

 

On Allen's improvement in the turnover department:

 

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Even Allen’s improvement in the turnover department appears to be flukey. Yes, Allen has turned the ball over only four times (two interceptions and two fumbles lost) in the last 10 weeks, but only two players in the entire NFL have fumbled more often over that time — Buffalo has just recovered seven of his nine fumbles. And, according to Sports Info Solutions, defenders have dropped five would-be interceptions thrown by Allen since Week 10 alone. Allen hasn’t really protected the ball any better. He’s just been luckier.

 

On the validity of the game winning drives stat:

 

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How about that game-winning drive stat I cited earlier? Well, that’s not nearly as impressive as you probably think. Here are some other notable quarterbacks who have led the league in game-winning drives in recent years: Geno Smith (2013), Blake Bortles (2015), Marcus Mariota (2017). It’s a fun stat, but it means very little.

 

There's much more in the link. The article reads like it was from someone responding to all the pro Allen comments on TBD. It's a bit of a one-sided hit job but the writer makes a lot of good points (unfortunately for us). 

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16 hours ago, Augie said:

Who, exactly,  do you expect is going to make it that far?  We are a bunch of pudgy couch potatoes, not a bunch of marathon runners from Ethiopia! 

This is just a great post. From its accuracy to its humor. I got to point 5 and saw a wall of text and scrolled to this gem. :beer:

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