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Mitch Morse in concussion protocol

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Dude you can downplay it all you want...........but if Morse doesn't play then from a cap perspective moving on is basically the equivalent of cutting Dareus all over again.

 

Dareus dead cap was $24M (which counted his salary for games played for the Bills in 2017).

 

Morse has $26M+ in guarantees.   

 

There was MUCH writhing and shaming of the previous GM on here over the Dareus cap hit.

 

Beane has done some easy-out contracts(for mostly middling personnel) but the Morse and Lotulelei ones aren't low impact to bale from.

 

Did you even bother to read the rest of my post that you cut off?  Because it entirely disproves your inaccurate statements... I don't think you understand how the Salary cap or dead cap works...  Dead cap hits are the remainder of guaranteed money...  He got $11M at signing (money which has already been paid and needs to be accounted for over the 4 years of the deal at $2.75M per year), and $9.4M across the first 2 years of the deal.  Add up $11 + 9.4 and you get how much?  OHHHH right $20.4... the exact same as his dead cap hit if we cut him this year.

 

His pro rated bonus this year is $2.75 (same as every other year) + his $7.4M guaranteed Salary ... that equals $10.15M

 

So in 2020 if we cut him you take $10.15 and subtract it from the TOTAL GUARANTEED MONEY which is $20.4, not your made up number... and you get..... DRUM ROLL

 

$10.25... the exact number I already stated.  His "Cap Hit" in 2020 would be $11.625M, so his dead cap would be $1.375 M LESS than if we kept him on the roster... you just subtract the dead cap of $10.25 from the roster hit if he were on the team of $11.625.

 

So there would be savings by year 2 if we needed to cut him... it's not ideal that we wear the dead cap of $10M but at least we aren't handcuffed to him forever since we can get out from under the deal in year 2.  The savings are even better in years 3 and beyond.

 

If you're comparing that to the Dareus deal, you may want to get your facts straight... Dareus signed a 6 year $108M deal in 2015.  In that deal he was guaranteed $65M PLUS a $25M Signing Bonus, so you're talking about $90M that needed to be accounted for by the cap.  He was traded in 2017, the 3rd year of that deal.  He was 3 years in and the dead cap was $10.66 in 2017 and $14.2M in 2018 making a total of $24.86... his dead cap 3 years in was still more than the total guarantees given to Morse.  

 

On the flip side, if we cut Morse in the second year of his deal we will already realize cap savings of $1.375, and in the 3rd year we'd be saving $4.875M in cap and wear just a cap hit of $5.5M, all of which is the remainder of the unaccounted for bonus money.  

 

The reason the deal isn't a massive boondoggle disaster is because of the structure Beane uses with his contracts.  He makes them so that they are nice upfront money for the player to give them an incentive to sign on the bottom line, with most of that money in the first year or two.  THEN After that first year, the team can opt out without a big cap hit.

 

Here's another example... the Trent Murphy Contract:

 

Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Per Game Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Other Bonus   Guaranteed Salary   Cap
Number
Cap %  
Dead Money & Cap Savings
Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension 
Total   $14,525,000 $5,250,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $300,000 $150,000   $5,625,000   $22,318,750    
2018 28 $2,625,000 $1,750,000 $0 $500,000 $100,000 $0   $2,625,000   $4,662,500 2.6%      
2019 📝 29 $5,800,000 $1,750,000 $500,000 $500,000 $100,000 $150,000   $3,000,000   $8,706,250 4.6%  
$6,500,000
$2,206,250
2020 📝 30 $6,100,000 $1,750,000 $500,000 $500,000 $100,000 $0   $0   $8,950,000 4.5%  
$1,750,000
$7,200,000

 

So he signed in 2018 and got a signing bonus of $5.25M and $5.625M Guaranteed Salary over the life of the 3 year deal with all of it in the first 2 years.  So had we cut him in 2018 we would've had to account for the bonus plus the guarantees, so the cap hit would've been $10.875M, his cap number on the other hand was $4.6625M, so we would've had to use up additional cap space to cut him.

 

HOWEVER the reason this deal is a perfectly constructed "Prove it" deal where if they wanted out in 2019, his Cap hit is $8.7M-ish they could've cut him and only worn a dead cap hit of $6.50M and SAVED $2.2M+ for this year.

 

In year 3, 2020, his cap hit is $8.95M, however he has $0 in Guaranteed Salary, and the only money remaining from his Signing Bonus is $1.750.  So the dead cap to cut him would only be $1.75M and we'd SAVE $7.2M against the cap.  

 

So if he's good we keep him on a good contract for a pass rusher in 2020, if he sucks, we cut him and wear a very minimal cap hit.  And at the end of the day the player is happy because he earned good money over the life of the "Prove it" Deal.

 

Edited by MR8
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hope it works out...

 

i would avoid all players with a history of concussions.

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8 minutes ago, papazoid said:

hope it works out...

 

i would avoid all players with a history of concussions.

 

So more baseball players on the team..?

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21 minutes ago, MR8 said:

 

Did you even bother to read the rest of my post that you cut off?  Because it entirely disproves your inaccurate statements... I don't think you understand how the Salary cap or dead cap works...  Dead cap hits are the remainder of guaranteed money...

 

 

You did a great job explaining the contract @MR8 but you can't change peoples minds with facts if they don't want to hear them.

 

My hope now (not knowing how bad this is) is Morse can be back for the NYJ game and he can get thru as many games as possible this year.

This situation is probably going to be a game by game thing.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Teams do not let free agents walk.  They get outbid.

False. 

 

It’s a simple point and if you could get down from the hill of everything’s awesome then you’d see it.

 

Morse has a lengthy history of concussions, do you think it’s likely, possible, or impossible that someone in KC knew that Morse was either suffering severely or just not able to get past the mental block of sacrificing his health?

 

Obviously the story isn’t finished yet, this will be talked about a ton if he never comes back or plays less than a handful of games. 

 

I think they still made some nice oline decisions, heck I loved the Morse signing this winter. This just feels off though, the guy got concussed playing in the first practice then out for who knows how long.

Edited by CommonCents

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51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I get taking the risk on Morse.........huge wad of found money in pocket.......immediate need......talented player........... but you are ultimately judged by your results.

 

I mean people pan Whaley on here for Watkins but if Watkins had remained healthy and was handled properly he's a top 5 WR in the NFL.        

 

If if's and buts were Lombardi's and Hunt's.........know what I'm sayin'?

 

Sort of get you. 

 

Watkins is a completely different story.  The trade up to get him was pricey and he’s barely a top 5 wr from his class much less the league. 

 

Not extending him was the right move. 

 

Morse was a calculated risk, but they also moved on two other guys the can play center.  There’s not a guy on the roster right now that’s being targeted as a cap casualty.

 

Beane is doing a very good job. The next looming challenge here is if and when the team starts to enjoy some success, what happens to the stars coming off their current contracts....? 

 

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4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Sort of get you. 

 

Watkins is a completely different story.  The trade up to get him was pricey and he’s barely a top 5 wr from his class much less the league. 

 

Not extending him was the right move. 

 

Morse was a calculated risk, but they also moved on two other guys the can play center.  There’s not a guy on the roster right now that’s being targeted as a cap casualty.

 

Beane is doing a very good job. The next looming challenge here is if and when the team starts to enjoy some success, what happens to the stars coming off their current contracts....? 

 

 

I don't mean to make this about Watkins, but boy do I disagree there.

 

They didn't have to extend him, all they had to do was pick up his 5th year option, which would've paid him a bit over $10M (totally reasonable considering Tyrell Williams is currently getting $11M). After that, they could've tagged him for 2 straight years.  They basically gave up on him 3 years early, and as a result they've had nothing that resembles a downfield threat at WR for 2 full seasons.

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22 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

False. 

 

It’s a simple point and if you could get down from the hill of everything’s awesome then you’d see it.

 

Morse has a lengthy history of concussions, do you think it’s likely, possible, or impossible that someone in KC knew that Morse was either suffering severely or just not able to get past the mental block of sacrificing his health?

 

Obviously the story isn’t finished yet, this will be talked about a ton if he never comes back or plays less than a handful of games. 

 

I think they still made some nice oline decisions, heck I loved the Morse signing this winter. This just feels off though, the guy got concussed playing in the first practice then out for who knows how long.

 

I didn't realize KC didn't even offer him a contract. Where did you read that? 

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27 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

False. 

 

It’s a simple point and if you could get down from the hill of everything’s awesome then you’d see it.

 

Morse has a lengthy history of concussions, do you think it’s likely, possible, or impossible that someone in KC knew that Morse was either suffering severely or just not able to get past the mental block of sacrificing his health?

 

Obviously the story isn’t finished yet, this will be talked about a ton if he never comes back or plays less than a handful of games. 

 

I think they still made some nice oline decisions, heck I loved the Morse signing this winter. This just feels off though, the guy got concussed playing in the first practice then out for who knows how long.

 

Could just be they liked the backup who stepped in while Morse was out and didn’t want to pay the big FA money...  Levitre and Woods left the Bills as good players.  Bills didn’t know some deep dark secret about them 

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh both are liabilities.   Which one is worse depends on the nature.    Morse situation is career threatening.   Dareus' floor was more like "well I guess we just have an elite run stuffer instead of a first team All Pro DT".   

 

Players change and mature it happens all the time.    Look at the attitudes of Dareus, Gilmore, Woods and Watkins since they left.   Shady is another example.   After a humbling debut as a Bill he started owning up to his problems/choices and became a team leader.  Too bad that maturity and elite talent only intersected for one season.

 

Think Dareus was a little career threatening too as one incident away from a suspension from what I recall.

 

Of the 4 you mention, don't recall any attitude or at least not much with either Woods or Gilmore.  As far as I recall neither of them were not welcomed back if they had wanted to sign here.  Dareus, didn't I hear him being taken out last year for passing downs.  Is it really because he's it's been figured out that not very good or is it still related to attitude?  He may not be making the 11 O'clock news anymore, but is he really playing as well as he can?  Sammy well he's kind of faded to oblivion.

 

As for McCoy, so when exactly did he mature, after the 2013 incident when he kicked some woman off his party bus, or after the fight with the off-duty police in Philly, or was it after the domestic violence incident last year.  Does being out of the news over the last year changed him?  I'll grant you, he seems to be a locker room leader, just as Dareus may have been, but in a bad way.

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Like I have said..................

 

Why are they so mum about it?

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1 minute ago, njbuff said:

Like I have said..................

 

Why are they so mum about it?

 

 

That is the part that makes this all a lot worse. We are all left speculating the severity of this.  Are they being super cautious or are we looking at season ending IR with a possible medical retirement ?

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27 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Like I have said..................

 

Why are they so mum about it?

Its concussion protocol. After everything the happened, teams just don't talk about concussion injuries. This isn't a Morse thing. Its a league thing. 

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2 hours ago, MR8 said:

 

Did you even bother to read the rest of my post that you cut off?  Because it entirely disproves your inaccurate statements... I don't think you understand how the Salary cap or dead cap works...  Dead cap hits are the remainder of guaranteed money...  He got $11M at signing (money which has already been paid and needs to be accounted for over the 4 years of the deal at $2.75M per year), and $9.4M across the first 2 years of the deal.  Add up $11 + 9.4 and you get how much?  OHHHH right $20.4... the exact same as his dead cap hit if we cut him this year.

 

His pro rated bonus this year is $2.75 (same as every other year) + his $7.4M guaranteed Salary ... that equals $10.15M

 

So in 2020 if we cut him you take $10.15 and subtract it from the TOTAL GUARANTEED MONEY which is $20.4, not your made up number... and you get..... DRUM ROLL

 

$10.25... the exact number I already stated.  His "Cap Hit" in 2020 would be $11.625M, so his dead cap would be $1.375 M LESS than if we kept him on the roster... you just subtract the dead cap of $10.25 from the roster hit if he were on the team of $11.625.

 

So there would be savings by year 2 if we needed to cut him... it's not ideal that we wear the dead cap of $10M but at least we aren't handcuffed to him forever since we can get out from under the deal in year 2.  The savings are even better in years 3 and beyond.

 

If you're comparing that to the Dareus deal, you may want to get your facts straight... Dareus signed a 6 year $108M deal in 2015.  In that deal he was guaranteed $65M PLUS a $25M Signing Bonus, so you're talking about $90M that needed to be accounted for by the cap.  He was traded in 2017, the 3rd year of that deal.  He was 3 years in and the dead cap was $10.66 in 2017 and $14.2M in 2018 making a total of $24.86... his dead cap 3 years in was still more than the total guarantees given to Morse.  

 

On the flip side, if we cut Morse in the second year of his deal we will already realize cap savings of $1.375, and in the 3rd year we'd be saving $4.875M in cap and wear just a cap hit of $5.5M, all of which is the remainder of the unaccounted for bonus money.  

 

The reason the deal isn't a massive boondoggle disaster is because of the structure Beane uses with his contracts.  He makes them so that they are nice upfront money for the player to give them an incentive to sign on the bottom line, with most of that money in the first year or two.  THEN After that first year, the team can opt out without a big cap hit.

 

Here's another example... the Trent Murphy Contract:

 

Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Per Game Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Other Bonus   Guaranteed Salary   Cap
Number
Cap %  
Dead Money & Cap Savings
Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension 
Total   $14,525,000 $5,250,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $300,000 $150,000   $5,625,000   $22,318,750    
2018 28 $2,625,000 $1,750,000 $0 $500,000 $100,000 $0   $2,625,000   $4,662,500 2.6%      
2019 📝 29 $5,800,000 $1,750,000 $500,000 $500,000 $100,000 $150,000   $3,000,000   $8,706,250 4.6%  
$6,500,000
$2,206,250
2020 📝 30 $6,100,000 $1,750,000 $500,000 $500,000 $100,000 $0   $0   $8,950,000 4.5%  
$1,750,000
$7,200,000

 

So he signed in 2018 and got a signing bonus of $5.25M and $5.625M Guaranteed Salary over the life of the 3 year deal with all of it in the first 2 years.  So had we cut him in 2018 we would've had to account for the bonus plus the guarantees, so the cap hit would've been $10.875M, his cap number on the other hand was $4.6625M, so we would've had to use up additional cap space to cut him.

 

HOWEVER the reason this deal is a perfectly constructed "Prove it" deal where if they wanted out in 2019, his Cap hit is $8.7M-ish they could've cut him and only worn a dead cap hit of $6.50M and SAVED $2.2M+ for this year.

 

In year 3, 2020, his cap hit is $8.95M, however he has $0 in Guaranteed Salary, and the only money remaining from his Signing Bonus is $1.750.  So the dead cap to cut him would only be $1.75M and we'd SAVE $7.2M against the cap.  

 

So if he's good we keep him on a good contract for a pass rusher in 2020, if he sucks, we cut him and wear a very minimal cap hit.  And at the end of the day the player is happy because he earned good money over the life of the "Prove it" Deal.

 

Times like this, i wish there was a gold star rep point. This post made want to invent my own:)!!

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Mitch came out day after day at camp, do the most the rules allow him to do. I think that's a positive sign, not a sign of impending retirement. It is quite possible he will remain in protocol until the week before the season opener to be safe. As those big hands just wrote, the team is required to not comment in any way on anyone in concussion protocol. Zero pressure is permitted on the player to return.

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36 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Like I have said..................

 

Why are they so mum about it?

 

 

If he wasn't doing agility stuff I'd be asking this to.  

 

My guess:  

 

I think they are being really cautious because of the history....probably too cautious.  

 

You'll see him week 1.  

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9 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Its concussion protocol. After everything the happened, teams just don't talk about concussion injuries. This isn't a Morse thing. Its a league thing. 

 

this is what is feeding the conjecture.

 

You are correct they can't really discuss it, but that leaves all of us worrying about his health and to a lesser extent can he actually play.

 

 

I expect him to be a go week 1 based on the fact they aren't saying much. If it was really bad I think we would not see him with the team at all, and we would of heard more details by now.

 

I'm still concerned for him though

 

 

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't mean to make this about Watkins, but boy do I disagree there.

 

They didn't have to extend him, all they had to do was pick up his 5th year option, which would've paid him a bit over $10M (totally reasonable considering Tyrell Williams is currently getting $11M). After that, they could've tagged him for 2 straight years.  They basically gave up on him 3 years early, and as a result they've had nothing that resembles a downfield threat at WR for 2 full seasons.

Why would we? By his own admission he was a poor teammate and a bit of a diva. While we were not a good football team at the time, his departure did not cost us. In fact, the trade returns contributed more than his performance did.

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Just now, ddaryl said:

 

this is what is feeding the conjecture.

 

You are correct they can't really discuss it, but that leaves all of us worrying about his health and to a lesser extent can he actually play.

 

 

I expect him to be a go week 1 based on the fact they aren't saying much. If it was really bad I think we would not see him with the team at all, and we would of heard more details by now.

 

I'm still concerned for him though

 

 

Not true, again because of the protocol. It could be really bad or mostly precautionary. Even if Morse wasn’t visible at camp there would be scant details and we’d likely not know anything more than we do now. It’s just handled differently than any other injury a player could sustain on the field. 

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The league not discussing players in the concussion protocol is a LEGAL issue -- as in, they're not going to subject themselves to any potential liability based upon what they do or don't say about concussions.  The subject is taboo.  A player is "in" the protocol until he is "out."  Period.

 

As for whether it was a good/bad/dumb/smart move by Beane to sign Morse to that contract?  I'll actually wait until some real football games are played before making that assessment.

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43 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Like I have said..................

 

Why are they so mum about it?

McD is asked every day about Morse and every day McD says Morse is still in concussion protocol. What else, exactly, does he need to say so as not to appear “mum” about it? What info are you looking to get out of McD regarding Morse’s concussion?

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2 minutes ago, RochesterLifer said:

Why would we? By his own admission he was a poor teammate and a bit of a diva. While we were not a good football team at the time, his departure did not cost us. In fact, the trade returns contributed more than his performance did.

Watkins statements on his own immaturity while here have been twisted and overblown. Besides, plenty of Diva WRs have been retained by their teams over the years. The strategy described for retaining SW could have been employed , and wouldn’t have been considered unusual at the time. No one knows how it may have turned out, and he was easily the Bills biggest receiving threat when here. 

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

You did a great job explaining the contract @MR8 but you can't change peoples minds with facts if they don't want to hear them.

 

My hope now (not knowing how bad this is) is Morse can be back for the NYJ game and he can get thru as many games as possible this year.

This situation is probably going to be a game by game thing.

 

 

Thanks man, and I see what you're saying.   Part of my response is more than just for the guy I'm arguing against, it's also for the other people reading his post and maybe not having all the information to know why the argument he's putting up is inaccurate.

 

So Hopefully I can change his mind, but if not, at the very least, I've put the accurate information out there to help other people come to their own conclusion with all the facts and figures.

 

15 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

Times like this, i wish there was a gold star rep point. This post made want to invent my own:)!!

 

Haha thanks buddy, these are fun analyses to run... 

 

When you look at our contracts versus those of the Jets and the Browns, you can see our GM has a clear road map towards keeping our young talent, and the Jets and Browns are looking for splashes versus "Building"... in a few years it's going to be VERY hard for them to keep their guys as those contracts are still big and hard to get out of, but our guys are all being re-signed because the bulk of the cap hits for our higher paid players are front loaded and the deals are easy to get out of. 

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3 minutes ago, RochesterLifer said:

Why would we? By his own admission he was a poor teammate and a bit of a diva. While we were not a good football team at the time, his departure did not cost us. In fact, the trade returns contributed more than his performance did.

 

What??? When was the last time a Bills' pass catcher even sniffed 700 yards in a season?

 

His departure didn't cost us? He had over 2,000 yards receiving in the '14/'15 seasons playing on an offense that threw the ball less than any other unit in the league (this despite playing with a QB triumverate of EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, and Tyrod Taylor).

 

Further, to say that this wasn't a good football team at the time is kind of crazy. The team was loaded on offense: McCoy, Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Hogan, and an offensive line that was performing near the top of the league.

 

As for what the trade returns contributed, EJ Gaines missed parts of 8 games that season, and the pick that came back was used in a trade.

 

Lastly, why would they have kept Watkins? Probably so that they didn't have to spend $16M in free agency this season to bring in multiple players that they're hoping will produce 80% of what Watkins produced here when healthy.

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2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

What??? When was the last time a Bills' pass catcher even sniffed 700 yards in a season?

 

His departure didn't cost us? He had over 2,000 yards receiving in the '14/'15 seasons playing on an offense that threw the ball less than any other unit in the league (this despite playing with a QB triumverate of EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, and Tyrod Taylor).

 

Further, to say that this wasn't a good football team at the time is kind of crazy. The team was loaded on offense: McCoy, Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Hogan, and an offensive line that was performing near the top of the league.

 

As for what the trade returns contributed, EJ Gaines missed parts of 8 games that season, and the pick that came back was used in a trade.

 

Lastly, why would they have kept Watkins? Probably so that they didn't have to spend $16M in free agency this season to bring in multiple players that they're hoping will produce 80% of what Watkins produced here when healthy.

 

The Bills didn't need him in 2017 and his presence wouldn't have made much of a difference last year.  And so far he's failed to even get 700 yards since leaving.

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