MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 I indexed every QB who ever started a game for the Bills across 24 different metrics. Thought others might think this is interesting. I actually shared this in another thread but I think only a couple people saw it since it was pretty buried. I wanted to look at pure effectiveness and efficiency, so I looked at game by game effectiveness, not overall production. So someone who started one game could potentially outscore someone who started for 10 years (in fact we see with with Matt Barkley, who scores high in the index). The exceptions to this is I scored playoff appearances, championships, pro bowl selections, times all-pro/all-afl, etc. I also included comebacks and game winning drives. So those aren't just game by game efficiency metrics, but I thought they were indicators of successful QBing and should be included. I also included playoff games and playoff stats for these QB's. Top 10 QB's in the index: (Blue indicates a playoff starting QB. Red indicates current QB's on the team today) Kemp got major points from having 6 all-star appearances, 2 championships (I counted these the same as an AFC championship game), being 3 time All-AFL, and 1 time AFL MVP. He's a highly decorated QB. Bottom 10: (Nathan Peterman was not much higher than these. His saving grace was getting a single win, even though he didn't technically finish that game) Josh Allen ranked 17th, just after Trent Edwards and Rob Johnson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 12th. His case is interesting because he had decent numbers but horrible W/L numbers. EJ Manuel is at 23rd, just after JP Losman. Tyrod Taylor has a high rank. This is due to his stellar interception percentage and the fact that he went to a playoff game and a pro bowl. Considering eras these guys played in, I consider Brian Brohm to be the worst QB to ever start a game for the Bills. I'll probably create another index in the future that takes overall production into account as well, but this one is focused on QB efficiency, not as much production. What do you think? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 How does Josh Allen rate under Rob Johnson? Or even Trent Edwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hellcamino Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 How on Earth is Billy Joe Hobert not near the bottom? Did he start more games than the infamous "didn't know the plays" disaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marv's Neighbor Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Lamonica #7?? No wonder we traded him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed. FOOTNOTE: Gary Marangi feels slighted.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said: How does Josh Allen rate under Rob Johnson? Or even Trent Edwards Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index. Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc. 3 hours ago, Hellcamino said: How on Earth is Billy Joe Hobert not near the bottom? Did he start more games than the infamous "didn't know the plays" disaster? It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: FOOTNOTE: Gary ‘Maybe I should aim for Blount?’ Marangi feels slighted.................. I won’t say I fixed it for you, just added information...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed. Yes, that appears to be the case, but also era has something to do with that. I did not control for era at all. Just used their raw stats. Tyrod Taylor's passing stats would have been MVP worthy in the 1960's. Today? Not so much. But let's not take away what he did accomplish. He was excellent at not throwing interceptions. He went to a pro bowl. He started a playoff game. I know fans don't like him, but he did actually a respectable job in Buffalo. 23 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said: Lamonica #7?? No wonder we traded him. His high ranking is due to the fact that he won every single game he started. Win percentage was an important metric in the index. I didn't adjust points according to number of games started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 I am lost as no explanation of the index weighting. Wins, TDs, INTs, etc. Just a numerical index with no background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpsuit Jim Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 I had a list similar to this, but it was league wide and Josh Allen was near the very top! ok. The list was in alphabetical order. But still... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Thanks for the effort it took to accumulate the stats and create the index, but I'm not sure what, if anything, it proves because you are comparing QBs from totally different eras -- and even different leagues -- as well as comparing QBs who were backups with long term starters and those that played for the Bills for more than a decade with those who played only a few games. How would Joe Ferguson, Drew Bledsoe or Doug Flutie have done if their teams had had as much talent as the Jim Kelly's teams had had? Conversely, how would Jim Kelly have fared on the 2004-2005 or the 2010-2012 Bills teams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, SoTier said: Thanks for the effort it took to accumulate the stats and create the index, but I'm not sure what, if anything, it proves because you are comparing QBs from totally different eras -- and even different leagues -- as well as comparing QBs who were backups with long term starters and those that played for the Bills for more than a decade with those who played only a few games. How would Joe Ferguson, Drew Bledsoe or Doug Flutie have done if their teams had had as much talent as the Jim Kelly's teams had had? Conversely, how would Jim Kelly have fared on the 2004-2005 or the 2010-2012 Bills teams? I'm not trying to prove anything. Just posted it for fun. We can only measure the things we can measure. There's no way to really account for differences in era, strength of the rest of the team, etc. All we have are the stats. 9 minutes ago, SoTier said: Edited June 14, 2019 by MJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, MJS said: But let's not take away what he did accomplish. He was excellent at not throwing interceptions. He went to a pro bowl. He started a playoff game. I know fans don't like him, but he did actually a respectable job in Buffalo. He only threw it as a last resort period. Tyrod was a serviceable placeholder. But he also had the benefit of the best Bills rosters of the drought era supporting him. On some of those late 00s Bills teams he is a 4 win Quarterback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBillsFan Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 47 minutes ago, MJS said: Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index. Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc. It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games. Factors to reveal the true quality of Josh Allen must be dropped balls, 3rd and long situations and rushing. Excluding those details are presenting half of what Josh Allen or even Tyrod Taylor achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 53 minutes ago, MJS said: Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index. Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc. It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games. Good thing wins are a team stat and not a one person out of 46 stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, DieHardBillsFan said: Factors to reveal the true quality of Josh Allen must be dropped balls, 3rd and long situations and rushing. Excluding those details are presenting half of what Josh Allen or even Tyrod Taylor achieved. This index is looks at passing only. 29 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: Good thing wins are a team stat and not a one person out of 46 stat. As are all stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed. i humbly and thankfully accept the beat-down that cheering for this team has inflicted on me since 1973 more please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 At least they had the first three right, and am hoping we see in a couple of years JA keep climbing up the ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: He only threw it as a last resort period. Tyrod was a serviceable placeholder. But he also had the benefit of the best Bills rosters of the drought era supporting him. On some of those late 00s Bills teams he is a 4 win Quarterback. Yeah I was a Tyrod supporter until I saw what it looks when a QB actually throws the ball. Fitzpatrick has those teams in the playoffs. Allen has those teams in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 12 hours ago, MJS said: I indexed every QB who ever started a game for the Bills across 24 different metrics. Thought others might think this is interesting. I actually shared this in another thread but I think only a couple people saw it since it was pretty buried. I wanted to look at pure effectiveness and efficiency, so I looked at game by game effectiveness, not overall production. So someone who started one game could potentially outscore someone who started for 10 years (in fact we see with with Matt Barkley, who scores high in the index). The exceptions to this is I scored playoff appearances, championships, pro bowl selections, times all-pro/all-afl, etc. I also included comebacks and game winning drives. So those aren't just game by game efficiency metrics, but I thought they were indicators of successful QBing and should be included. I also included playoff games and playoff stats for these QB's. Top 10 QB's in the index: (Blue indicates a playoff starting QB. Red indicates current QB's on the team today) Kemp got major points from having 6 all-star appearances, 2 championships (I counted these the same as an AFC championship game), being 3 time All-AFL, and 1 time AFL MVP. He's a highly decorated QB. Bottom 10: (Nathan Peterman was not much higher than these. His saving grace was getting a single win, even though he didn't technically finish that game) Josh Allen ranked 17th, just after Trent Edwards and Rob Johnson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 12th. His case is interesting because he had decent numbers but horrible W/L numbers. EJ Manuel is at 23rd, just after JP Losman. Tyrod Taylor has a high rank. This is due to his stellar interception percentage and the fact that he went to a playoff game and a pro bowl. Considering eras these guys played in, I consider Brian Brohm to be the worst QB to ever start a game for the Bills. I'll probably create another index in the future that takes overall production into account as well, but this one is focused on QB efficiency, not as much production. What do you think? You are going to be burned alive for suggesting Tyrod was better than the beloved egomaniacal midget. to me it looks just as reasonable as anything else I’ve seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Yeah, Tyrod is 4th, factual and ironic all in one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 ‘Figures lie, and liars figure’ goes the old adage. The first part of the saying holds true for the raw data, the second part for the apologists advocating their QB as the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 2 hours ago, row_33 said: i humbly and thankfully accept the beat-down that cheering for this team has inflicted on me since 1973 more please.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: ‘Figures lie, and liars figure’ goes the old adage. The first part of the saying holds true for the raw data, the second part for the apologists advocating their QB as the best. what are they arguing, that Flutie was the best??? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, row_33 said: what are they arguing, that Flutie was the best??? ? Each apologist will probably say why their choice is backed up by the data, and how the others are merely pretenders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Each apologist will probably say why their choice is backed up by the data, and how the others are merely pretenders. Jim or Kemp at 1 or 2 (if you saw Kemp play) a huge gap then Ferguson at 3 and WGAS after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 5 hours ago, MJS said: Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index. Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc. It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games. Well, they should be honestly... also Rob Johnson and Trent Edwards were never impressive, always bumbling and looked horrible to the eye test. Allen looks beautiful to the eyes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: Well, they should be honestly... also Rob Johnson and Trent Edwards were never impressive, always bumbling and looked horrible to the eye test. Allen looks beautiful to the eyes so far. Rob was the closest to winning a playoff game since roughly 2/3 of those on here were even born. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBillsFan Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 3 hours ago, MJS said: This index is looks at passing only. As are all stats. You may be able to make a few tweaks to include the run and also the dropped balls and 3rd and long passing is part of passing. Really enjoy the work and would like to see the breakdown if you haven't already shared it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Not ready to let Josh pass Jim or Kemp or Joe so far. Guess that makes me a hater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: Well, they should be honestly... also Rob Johnson and Trent Edwards were never impressive, always bumbling and looked horrible to the eye test. Allen looks beautiful to the eyes so far. Yeah, well eye tests can't be quantified. 9 minutes ago, DieHardBillsFan said: You may be able to make a few tweaks to include the run and also the dropped balls and 3rd and long passing is part of passing. Really enjoy the work and would like to see the breakdown if you haven't already shared it. For this index I don't want to add the rushing stats. However, I plan to create just an overall production based index in the future. That will definitely include rushing stats. I don't view dropped passes as a QB metric. Every QB has dropped passes, and I doubt I could get that data for all of the 45 QB's on the list anyway. I'd have to think through 3rd and long, but again, not sure I could get that for the early QB's. I don't know when that type of stuff started getting tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 (edited) BTW, can anyone remember Johnny Green? He was the first QB to start for the Bills. He actually did decently well in the index. His interception percentage was the best in franchise history until Jim Kelly came around. He had the most TD's until Kemp. Most yards and yards per game until Kemp. Went 5-6 that first year. What ever happened to him? He ranks 19th in the index, above Todd Collins, JP Losman, and EJ Manuel. Pretty good for an early era QB. Edited June 14, 2019 by MJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, row_33 said: Rob was the closest to winning a playoff game since roughly 2/3 of those on here were even born. You mean the team was in spite of Rob... 41 minutes ago, MJS said: Yeah, well eye tests can't be quantified. For this index I don't want to add the rushing stats. However, I plan to create just an overall production based index in the future. That will definitely include rushing stats. I don't view dropped passes as a QB metric. Every QB has dropped passes, and I doubt I could get that data for all of the 45 QB's on the list anyway. I'd have to think through 3rd and long, but again, not sure I could get that for the early QB's. I don't know when that type of stuff started getting tracked. All I know is Rob Johnson has caused me much pain and suffering and vomiting. Edwards has induced suffering but he didn't underwhelm in the biggest game of his career when there was a much better QB on the bench being wasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: You mean the team was in spite of Rob... All I know is Rob Johnson has caused me much pain and suffering and vomiting. Edwards has induced suffering but he didn't underwhelm in the biggest game of his career when there was a much better QB on the bench being wasted... Well, Rob didn't do that well in the index. He's the only QB for the Bills who has started a playoff game who ranks outside of the top 10. He's at 16th, so not even in the top 15. Doug Flutie ranks 5th. Obviously there is still a lot of debating going on even today, but both of those QB's played with the same team pretty much, and Doug WON twice as many games as he lost while Rob LOST twice as many as he won. Doug had more yards per game, more TD's per game, more comebacks, and more game winning drives. Their interception % is very similar. Rob did have a better completion percentage, though. Maybe Flutie was a jerk, but I don't really care about that. I care about winning. Plenty of good QB's are jerks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Tyrod the trashcan at 4 ??? Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hellcamino Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) 13 hours ago, MJS said: It appears that (Hobert) did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games. Oh thats right, He came off the bench early in the game. Thats why he didn't study the game plan, cause he said he didn't think he was gonna play anyway. What a tool! He may not have started, but he was the worst I've seen in 46 years of watching the Bills. And I was at "The Peterman game" in person so that's saying something. Edited June 15, 2019 by Hellcamino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) On 6/14/2019 at 11:52 AM, Captain Hindsight said: Yeah I was a Tyrod supporter until I saw what it looks when a QB actually throws the ball. Fitzpatrick has those teams in the playoffs. Allen has those teams in the playoffs. Fitzpatrick never has, nor never will have any team in the playoffs. TT and Fitz are both low level starters, and decent backups. They aren’t guys you want leading a playoff team. However, if I had a playoff roster and had to choose one of them to lead, I’d pick Tyrod. TT is consistent and doesn’t make huge mistakes. Fitz goes from looking elite one week, to playing like a slightly better Peterman the next. Taylor could ride the coattails of a good defense and running game to the playoffs. Fitz would always make enough mistakes to knock his team out of the playoffs. For every great game Fitz plays, he plays about four terrible ones. Edited June 15, 2019 by SirAndrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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