Dean’s List (Astro’s Bills Draft analysis)

[Chandler#81]

Ranks, Rastro!

 

http://billsmafia.com/2019/04/28/astro-notes-draft-review/

[US Egg]

George Jetson doesn't look as optimistic :

 

[fansince88]

4 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Ranks, Rastro!

 

http://billsmafia.com/2019/04/28/astro-notes-draft-review/

Posted the same thing. Mine is gone and I was concerned until I saw yours. It was a great read!

[billsfan1959]

Always good to read his analyses 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

George Jetson doesn't look as optimistic :

 

George was always a ‘glass half empty’ sort.  With Mr. Spacely as your boss, and Uniblab as your coworker, you would be ‘meh’ too.  ?

[Chandler#81]

7 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Posted the same thing. Mine is gone and I was concerned until I saw yours. It was a great read!

Yeah, I apologize. As soon as I posted the thread, I saw you started one the same time. I tried to PM you but couldn’t find you with all the posters who’s screen names begin with ‘ Billsfansince..’. ? I didn’t merge them as neither had yet to have any comments. I agree, fantastic write up by a fantastic fan and writer!

[Bookie Man]

That was an nice way to wake up on a Sunday morning 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

George was always a ‘glass half empty’ sort.  With Mr. Spacely as your boss, and Uniblab as your coworker, you would be ‘meh’ too.  ?

 At least Jane kept herself up

[Big C]

Good read! I liked our haul too. 

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff, love to read this FO finally knows what they are doing!

[JinxedBill1]

Thanks!

[BuffAlone]

Good read! Thanks for posting

[Gugny]

18 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Yeah, I apologize. As soon as I posted the thread, I saw you started one the same time. I tried to PM you but couldn’t find you with all the posters who’s screen names begin with ‘ Billsfansince..’. ? I didn’t merge them as neither had yet to have any comments. I agree, fantastic write up by a fantastic fan and writer!

 

The letters "fan" appear four times in your post.

 

There is nothing significant about this.  Perhaps you were trying to be allivertative.  I just wanted to give you a glimpse into what kinds of things my mind is drawn to.

[Chandler#81]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

The letters "fan" appear four times in your post.

 

There is nothing significant about this.  Perhaps you were trying to be allivertative.  I just wanted to give you a glimpse into what kinds of things my mind is drawn to.

Ha! There’ll be times there when their use is present. It’ll be a present in the present they’re not likely to miss.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said:

Ha! There’ll be times there when their use is present. It’ll be a present in the present they’re not likely to miss.

 

Instead of taking this down a very fun road, which I REALLY WANT TO, I'm going to stop, so we stay on topic (with respect to the OP).

 

Oh, wait!  The weight of guilt will have to wait, as the OP who weighed is ...wait for it ... YOU!

 

Thanks (to you and to Fan/88) for posting.  Astro's stuff is missed and it's great to see it posted here, even if it's not from him, directly!

[Steve O]

Thanks for posting. Hope the analysis is right. I'll give mine in three years.

 

[Green Lightning]

I know there's some Homer in Astro's post but he backs it up, and I liked it much. Initially did not like the Singletary pick or skipping Sternberger. But I'm coming around and anxious to see our new RB and TE. Singltary's tape and juking tackles is impressive. It belies his size and straight ahead speed. McBeane does a good job at picking football players and not workout warriors.

[WhoTom]

45 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

The letters "fan" appear four times in your post.

 

There is nothing significant about this.  Perhaps you were trying to be allivertative.  I just wanted to give you a glimpse into what kinds of things my mind is drawn to.

 

Chill, man.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

16 minutes ago, Steve O said:

Thanks for posting. Hope the analysis is right. I'll give mine in three years.

 

Scaredy-cat 

[Cripple Creek]

56 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

The letters "fan" appear four times in your post.

 

There is nothing significant about this.  Perhaps you were trying to be allivertative.  I just wanted to give you a glimpse into what kinds of things my mind is drawn to.

The letters fan appear many more than four times in his post. The fact that you were only able to find four is not significant, perhaps you are having a bad day.

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Yeah, I apologize. As soon as I posted the thread, I saw you started one the same time. I tried to PM you but couldn’t find you with all the posters who’s screen names begin with ‘ Billsfansince..’. ? I didn’t merge them as neither had yet to have any comments. I agree, fantastic write up by a fantastic fan and writer!

 Its cool. Just glad Astro is still doing this. 

[Steve O]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Scaredy-cat 

More like I've learned to be patient and manage expectations for these things. Let's take a trip down memory lane and look at the 2016 draft:

1) Shaq Lawson: Then - was psyched he fell to us at #19, but things fell just right with the first 18 picks. Thought he was top 10 talent (Sound anything like things falling just right with the first 8 picks for Oliver to fall to us at 9 this year when many thought he was a top 5 talent?)

3 years later, book may still be out but at best he's been a disappointment. At least he's still on the team, only one from this draft that can say that.

 

2) Reggie Ragland: Then - unbelievable we got him at #41, was hoping he would still be available to us in the first (had to trade away assets to move up a few spots and nab him at 41, sound similar to Cody Ford at 38 this year?)

3 years later, well, we did use the pick we got for him as part of the deal to move back in to the third for Knox, but I'm sure Beane would have figured a way to get back there without the pick. Did he ever play a down for the Bills? Wish him well, but certainly a huge disappointment.

 

3) Adolphus Washington: Then - another value pick, lucky to get him this late in the third. Our defense will be great this year!!

3 years later - we can have him if we want him, no one else does.

 

4) Cardale Jones - Then: He'll be able to learn for a year or two under Taylor, then we have our franchise quarterback with a fourth round pick! 

3 years later, know we got a conditional pick for him, maybe one this year's 7th rounders? Not sure. Once again, huge disappointment.

 

5) Jonathan Williams, 6) Kolby Listenbee, 6) Kevon Seymour - Didn't expect much from these three, maybe a little from Williams. Got even less. 

3 years later, Seymour is still in the league, the guy we traded him for (Kaelin Clay) is not. 

 

So the overall grade I would have given for this draft would have been B+ in 2016. Three years later, a generous D. In fairness that was the last Whaley/Ryan draft, 2017 seems much better at this point, but I'll give my final grade on it next year.

Edited April 28, 2019 by Steve O

[Seasons1992]

3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 At least Jane kept herself up

 

Would ya? @\GoBillsInDallas/

[KellyToTasker]

Great writeup from a knowledgeable guy. I really like the non-filtered, non-skewed delivery and approach.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Ranks, Rastro!

http://billsmafia.com/2019/04/28/astro-notes-draft-review/

 

Dean is usually positive, but I have never read something so optimistic post-draft from Astro before.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Steve O said:

More like I've learned to be patient and manage expectations for these things. Let's take a trip down memory lane look at 2016 draft:

1) Shaq Lawson: Then - was psyched he fell to us at #19. Thought he was top 10 talent.

3 years later, book may still be out but at best he's been a disappointment. At least he's still on the team, only one from this draft that can say that.

 

2) Reggie Ragland: Then - unbelievable we got him at #41 (sound similar to Cody Ford at 38?), was hoping he would be available to us in the first. 

3 years later, well, we did use the pick we got for him as part of the deal to move back in to the third for Knox, but I'm sure Beane would have figured a way to get back there without the pick. Did he ever play a down for the Bills? Wish him well, but certainly a huge disappointment.

 

3) Adolphus Washington: Then - another value pick, lucky to get him this late in the third. Our defense will be great this year!!

3 years later - we can have him if we want him, no one else does.

 

4) Cardale Jones - Then: He'll be able to learn for a year or two under Taylor, then we have our franchise quarterback with a fourth round pick! 

3 years later, know we got a conditional pick for him, maybe one this year's 7th rounders? Not sure. Once again, huge disappointment.

 

5) Jonathan Williams, 6) Kolby Listenbee, 6) Kevon Seymour - Didn't expect much from these three, maybe a little from Williams. Got even less. 

3 years later, Seymour is still in the league, the guy we traded him for (Kaelin Clay) is not. 

 

So the overall grade I would have given for this draft would have been B+ in 2016. Three years later, a generous D. In fairness that was the last Whaley/Ryan draft, 2017 seems much better at this point, but I'll give my final grade on it next year.

 

I'd just like to point out here that a big part of the problem with the 2016 draft, is that it was specifically tailored towards the scheme needs of a head coach who was fired before the end of the season.  Ragland is playing quite well for Kansas City - started 10, played in 15 games in 2017, started 15, played in 16 games in 2018 and has been enjoying his trips to the playoffs.  He really isn't much of a disappointment as a player per se.   Lawson also struggled with scheme fit after Rex was sent on down the road, but he has played well enough to contribute to what was a pretty good D last year.  Seymour played well for us and for Carolina until IR'd.

 

What you describe is symptomatic overall of the scheme change trap to which the constant Coaching Carousel has doomed the Bills.  For all the talk about "drafting BPA", there really is no such thing in the abstract - the evaluation of players is all about how will they perform in a given coaches scheme?  So rather than hoping a player will pan out and compete, the constant scheme change means we've been in a place where we really NEEDED our draft picks to contribute at a higher rate than is reasonable, league wide, to expect, because they're not competing with established players, they're filling holes.

 

Overall, something like 20% of drafted players have NFL careers.  Not become stars, have NFL careers.  50% to 30% in the first couple rounds, 30% to 15% in the next 2, down to 5-10% in Round 5 on.  Overall, call it 30%.  So when you have 4/7 players still on NFL rosters 3 years in (Williams was with NO and now the Colts I believe), it's really about what one expects. 

One of the sweetest things for me was hearing Oliver talk about how he wants to come in and compete.  Not come in and contribute day 1, come in and compete.  Because that's where you want to be, where your draft picks compete, not where you expect them to contribute Day 1.

 

PS I never did understand the Cardale Jones and Kolby Listenbee picks.

 

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

The letters "fan" appear four times in your post.

There is nothing significant about this.  Perhaps you were trying to be allivertative.  I just wanted to give you a glimpse into what kinds of things my mind is drawn to.

 

Eeeeeeek!

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dean is usually positive, but I have never read something so optimistic post-draft from Astro before.

: )

[K-9]

4 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

Chill, man.

 

 

 

Gugny can more readily relate to this type of fan: