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Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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Really cool info, I knew Jackson was overrated but I didn't realize how much of a RB posing as a QB he is with his pass attempts. Ravens going all in on him is a mistake, he will put up big numbers and flashy stats, but he won't be a championship caliber qb. I just wish the NFL media saw this, seeing as Josh Allen is the media pinata.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-breakout-players-heres-a-look-at-10-who-are-poised-for-big-things-this-season/amp/

2019 NFL Breakout Players: Here's a look at 10 who are poised for big things this season

 

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Josh AllenBUF • QB • 17

What he did last year with a horrible supporting cast was impressive. Yes, I know the completion percentage was bad, but he had poor play from his receivers with a ton of drops.

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57 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-breakout-players-heres-a-look-at-10-who-are-poised-for-big-things-this-season/amp/

2019 NFL Breakout Players: Here's a look at 10 who are poised for big things this season

 

2181054.png
team logo
VIEW PROFILE
Josh AllenBUF • QB • 17

What he did last year with a horrible supporting cast was impressive. Yes, I know the completion percentage was bad, but he had poor play from his receivers with a ton of drops.

 

Dude you just posted this in the other thread that you made. Why bump another thread from long ago with the same exact info?

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26 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Dude you just posted this in the other thread that you made. Why bump another thread from long ago with the same exact info?

 

Different excerpts... each relevant to separate threads :flirt:

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Different excerpts... each relevant to separate threads :flirt:

 

Lol, it's the same, just seems kinda weird and a little attention seeking. Anyways you do you brah. 😎

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Posted (edited)

Wobbly start: Lamar Jackson critical of his early offseason practices

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/49767/wobbly-start-lamar-jackson-critical-of-his-early-offseason-practices

 

 

 

 

One player, who did not want to speak publicly, said Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the best of the quarterbacks so far but that Josh Rosen also has played well.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article229733894.html

Edited by Big Blitz

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20 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Wobbly start: Lamar Jackson critical of his early offseason practices

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/49767/wobbly-start-lamar-jackson-critical-of-his-early-offseason-practices

 

 

 

 

One player, who did not want to speak publicly, said Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the best of the quarterbacks so far but that Josh Rosen also has played well.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article229733894.html

 

I think it's gonna be pretty cool that 3 of the 5 2018 1st round rookie QBs are in the AFCE and all 5 are in the AFC.

 

These guys will definitely be competing with each other.

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2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Wobbly start: Lamar Jackson critical of his early offseason practices

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/49767/wobbly-start-lamar-jackson-critical-of-his-early-offseason-practices

 

 

 

 

One player, who did not want to speak publicly, said Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the best of the quarterbacks so far but that Josh Rosen also has played well.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article229733894.html

I mean to be fair to Rosen Fitzpatrick has a decent head start in both experience in the league and in the teams system. I mean Rosen is basically starting in the system at the same time as if he was drafted this year.

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On 5/24/2019 at 10:38 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

He played awesome in the playoffs that season no doubt about it.  But please find me a Ravens fan who thinks Flacco is the reason they won that SB. You won’t.  He got hot like how ELi Manning would.  

 

I used to work for a company owned by the Ravens owner and the corporate office is outside of Baltimore...Flacco was God to the Ravens fans that year.  They absolutely will say he won that Super Bowl.  The Ravens were the 4th seed that year...he propelled them into the Super Bowl.

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On 5/22/2019 at 12:37 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success, but because so many factors go into completion percentage separate from actual QB accuracy--QB & WR communication, WRs ability to catch, tips and batted passes, Throwaways and Spikes, QB decision making, etc--this actually does matter in terms of the conversation as to how to increase that completion percentage.

 

And I'd bet you anything Beane & Co. analyzed the tape for the purpose of having the very same conversation.

 

Notice how offense-heavy we went this offseason?

 

Start off by cutting our least reliable pass catcher over the year and then go out and get one proven speedster WR and another who was 4th in the league last year (pretty sure that's right) in catching balls on plays he was targeted.

 

Then you bolster the crap outta your OL so that you give your young QB time and Windows to make good decisions and throw the ball.

 

It matters in the grand scheme of our current year 1 to year 2 conversation because all any of us want to see is a successful Allen. 

 

The point, really, is that his distance from rookie QB to Franchise QB isn't greater than that distance is for the typical rookie QB as far as passing accuracy goes.

 

It matters in this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have. Of course, since you're here on this sports message board, I assume you believe this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have every year is meaningful.

 

And if you don't, why don't you go fishing in an actual body of water rather than on the Internet until the season starts?

 

 

And I like you. 

 

I get some right. I get some wrong.

 

I feel good about Allen.

 

If you need to calm your mind somehow, just remember that even broken clocks are right twice a day  :thumbsup:

 

I really don’t think it’s about you getting it right or wrong.  You just fall in love with Bills QB’s and become over the top homerish.  

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I used to work for a company owned by the Ravens owner and the corporate office is outside of Baltimore...Flacco was God to the Ravens fans that year.  They absolutely will say he won that Super Bowl.  The Ravens were the 4th seed that year...he propelled them into the Super Bowl.

 

 

Yes. Eli only really stepped his game up in the second super bowl run but it still wasn't to the level Flacco did. Plus, Flacco played with an aging Baltimore defense that gave up more than 30 points twice in the playoffs that year. Flacco had to step up. The Giants defense on the other hand did not give up over 20 point in any of the 8 post season games in those two Super Bowl runs and they gave up 17 points or less in 6 of the 8 games.

Edited by Sammy Watkins' Rib
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Posted (edited)

I have now done 8 of Josh Allen's games.  Here are some stats that may interest some of you.

 

My adjusted completion% for Allen is 74.5%.  His actual % for the first 8 games was at 52.8, so the team around him accounted for a 21.7% difference.  That adjusted percentage includes all bad decisions, poor accuracy and any pass where a completion should have been expected based on coverage, even against pressure.  In terms of accuracy I have Allen down for having 87% (121 of 139) of his passes as catch-able.  The passes that are included in that is all completions and then all passes that fell incomplete because of drops and off target throws.  It does not include passes that were defended unless it was determined that the pass was defended because of questionable accuracy.  Breaking down the accuracy percentage.  Of the 18 inaccurate passes that I charted for him, 7 of them were influenced by pressure.  4 of them were thrown into good coverage.  That leaves 7 passes of the 139 (5%) that were thrown to open receivers without pressure and were still poorly thrown.  In my opinion decision making is more of an issue than accuracy.  That should definitely improve, the more he plays.  The improvement of the team around him should also help improve the completion %.  So the question is, how much will better decision making and better team mates help improve Allen's completion%?  If they can cut that 21.7% difference in half this year, then 60+% should be attainable without Allen really improving his accuracy.

 

I should add that these percentages are based solely on catch-ability, not precision.  Pretty much what the OP was talking about.  He can definitely improve on precision but to me that is where confidence in his team (protection and receivers getting open) will help improve his accuracy.  At the 6 week mark I had him ranked in the top 10 for lowest off target %.  The week 13 Dolphins game was his worst in terms of off target % (so far) and moved him into the 20's but he also has 2 more games than the others so it's not necessarily a fair comparison.  We'll see if that improves later on.  Three interesting players that are pretty much equal to Josh Allen in off target % are Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady.  Josh Rosen is worse.  other notable QB's worse than Allen in off target % are: Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, DeShaun Watson, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Marcus Mariota.  4 of those QB's were in the playoffs.

Edited by wiley16350
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On 5/24/2019 at 12:26 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I know.

 

The poster above made a false claim, though.

 

Flaccid wasn't the reason he made the playoffs. But he absolutely was the reason they won all the way through the playoffs.

 

And any sane Ravens fan acknowledges that.

 

Ray lewis willed that team to a Super Bowl after ray rice miraculously got them in. 

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1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Ray lewis willed that team to a Super Bowl after ray rice miraculously got them in. 

 

Lewis was the emotional leader, but Flacco's elevated play on the field was the single biggest reason the Ravens made that playoff run to win the Super Bowl that year, as every Ravens fan will admit.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Lewis was the emotional leader, but Flacco's elevated play on the field was the single biggest reason the Ravens made that playoff run to win the Super Bowl that year, as every Ravens fan will admit.

I’m surrounded by ravens fans. So far your statement in unofficial polling has proven to be incorrect. 

 

Ray Lewis telling his team it’s ‘his last ride’ was the single biggest reason, followed by Anquan Boldin being un-coverable.  

 

Flacco played better in the post season as he usually does. And ‘14 was a career regular season for him too.

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood

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2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I’m surrounded by ravens fans. So far your statement in unofficial polling has proven to be incorrect. 

 

Ray Lewis telling his team it’s ‘his last ride’ was the single biggest reason, followed by Anquan Boldin being un-coverable.  

 

Flacco played better in the post season as he usually does. And ‘14 was a career regular season for him too.

 

Flacco didn't just "play better". He was absolutely brilliant in that run. He was the single biggest reason they won the Superbowl once in the playoffs. 

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......Let's assume that Allen did in fact play with a bad O-line and bad WR last season (wich I am good with...that seems like a reasonable assumption)  WHY would Allen decide on purpose to do the LEAST optimal thing he can do under those circumstances?  A bad line would mean poor protection to allow time for downfield plays to develope and those would supposedly develop less often and more slowly with bad WR.  The optimal thing to do under these circumstance would be designed plays/audibles, RPO action etc that would happen quickly and a read made more quickly to a shorter, faster develping route to mitigate the bad Oline and bad WR.  

 

Either the coaches called bad plays for Allen to try and throw deeper...OR they called good plays and Allen made bad choices.  One of those had to have happened.

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10 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

The optimal thing to do under these circumstance would be designed plays/audibles, RPO action etc that would happen quickly and a read made more quickly to a shorter, faster develping route to mitigate the bad Oline and bad WR.  

 

Either the coaches called bad plays for Allen to try and throw deeper...OR they called good plays and Allen made bad choices.  One of those had to have happened.

 

The truth is he isn't as comfortable with those things. There were some occasions early in the season where Daboll designed quick hitters as drive starters - the sort you see almost all OCs run for young QBs. Allen struggled with them. They are not his bread and butter. He finds the harder downfield throws easier than the short, quick game. Daboll adjusted as the season went on and gave him more downfield shots on early downs and early in drives or let him run more on early downs. 

 

Allen is such an unusual combination of strengths and weaknesses in a 1st and 2nd year NFL QB. That is why what happens next will be such an intriguing case study. Because in many ways he is trying to buck conventional wisdom.  

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1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

......Let's assume that Allen did in fact play with a bad O-line and bad WR last season (wich I am good with...that seems like a reasonable assumption)  WHY would Allen decide on purpose to do the LEAST optimal thing he can do under those circumstances?  A bad line would mean poor protection to allow time for downfield plays to develope and those would supposedly develop less often and more slowly with bad WR.  The optimal thing to do under these circumstance would be designed plays/audibles, RPO action etc that would happen quickly and a read made more quickly to a shorter, faster develping route to mitigate the bad Oline and bad WR.  

 

Either the coaches called bad plays for Allen to try and throw deeper...OR they called good plays and Allen made bad choices.  One of those had to have happened.

Both of those things happened.  Why would you say 1 of them had to have happened.  There were plays where Allen could have checked down.  There were plays Allen missed on deep throws.  There were plays that didn't have good options and Allen threw it away.  There were times Allen had to force the ball downfield because he was in 3rd and unmanageable and checkdowns wouldn't have been a realistic option.  Nobody thinks Allen never made a bad throw or a bad decision, they just believe that Allen was more negatively affected by the team around him than other QB's are, to which I believe he was.

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4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

......Let's assume that Allen did in fact play with a bad O-line and bad WR last season (wich I am good with...that seems like a reasonable assumption)  WHY would Allen decide on purpose to do the LEAST optimal thing he can do under those circumstances?  A bad line would mean poor protection to allow time for downfield plays to develope and those would supposedly develop less often and more slowly with bad WR.  The optimal thing to do under these circumstance would be designed plays/audibles, RPO action etc that would happen quickly and a read made more quickly to a shorter, faster develping route to mitigate the bad Oline and bad WR.  

 

Either the coaches called bad plays for Allen to try and throw deeper...OR they called good plays and Allen made bad choices.  One of those had to have happened.

 

Those are faulty assumptions.  Allen clearly believed that his best option would be to scramble, buy himself time, and try to make plays down the field.

 

And he was right, by the way.

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Some more interesting stats that I got from Allen's first 8 games.  I have him responsible for 37.8% of the plays that didn't have a gain of at least a yard.  The team is 55% responsible and the other 7.2% is situational such as kneel downs and hail mary's.  I don't have comparisons to other QB's so it's hard to say where that ranks but it might be of interest to some.  12.8% of those negative plays were because of accuracy issues with Josh Allen.  25% were decision making issues.  When you break it down to just Allen's negative plays, then 34% were because of accuracy and 66% were because of decision making.  As someone else said, it doesn't take that many improved passes to get a completion % to 60.  For Allen in the first 8 games he only needed 14 more completions to get 60%.  He was responsible for 53 negative plays and the team for 77.  Is it really that hard to believe that he could get that extra 14 completions with better decision making and a better team around him?

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His low completion % is a distortion resulting from:

 

1)  Being near the top in % dropped passes

2)  Being near the top in % spikes and throwaways

3)  Leading the league in depth of target

4)  Being near the top in throws under pressure

5)  Being a rookie

6)  Lacking enough accuracy on some of his throws  (Not hitting his spot or improper timing, route running or reads?  We rarely know for sure.)

 

Because of the predraft assessments, for some #6 is the only one that matters. The low comp% confirms what they think they already knew.   It's the only one they want to consider and therefore no need to look any further.  If #1 & 2 (objectively quantifiable if evenly applied) and #3 and  4 (less so) are considered his completion% would look more like other rookies which is TBF's major conclusion and the basis of this thread title.  It makes sense to me.

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