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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Teams have to list people by position. That is a requirement of the league. He could have been the only person listed as a Quarterback on the roster and still not been the best actual Quarterback. 

 

Logic 102. 

 

Now you're backtracking, now there are two kinds of Quarterbacks, listed Quaterbacks and actual Quarterbacks. In this case, your original statement needs to be changed to "even if he was the only listed Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best actual Quarterback on the roster" in order to make any sense.

 

You are welcome.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, VW82 said:

I reiterate my position from earlier in the thread. I applaud the effort by OP, but even if you assume away any pre-conceived bias, he/she isn't working with the same technology that PFF and ESPN / Elias Sports Bureau is using. Those guys all said Allen was the least accurate QB in the NFL last year based on a dart board approach, not completion percentage. ESB has been the leading sports stats provider for over 100 years. If you're arguing against them, you have a serious uphill battle ahead of you. 

 

All of that said, it sure felt to me like Josh improved post injury. He still has accuracy issues, and precision issues. I like that we went after WRs in FA who can get open. If they're open, Allen doesn't have to worry as much about precision. Just as important, it seemed like his decision making and feel for the game improved. There's a lot to be excited about. On to year two.

 

You understand that it's people, not technology that's doing the breakdown for these QBs, right? There's no AI that uses some kind of algorithm to decide what is an accurate vs an inaccurate pass. 

 

Also, those guys aren't using the dartboard approach. 

 

This is a highly highly subjective measure of ball placement, not accuracy. 

 

When you fall into the Goldilocks predicament, "just right" for one might be "too big" for another. As as you increase the variables, you also increase the gray lines, that's why I kept the gray lines at a minimum as much as possible.

10 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

Now you're backtracking, now there are two kinds of Quarterbacks, listed Quaterbacks and actual Quarterbacks. In this case, your original statement needs to be changed to "even if he was the only listed Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best actual Quarterback on the roster" in order to make any sense.

 

You are welcome.

 

You're, making an idiotic argument.

 

Our 3rd string TE was Logan Thomas, a college QB who eventually converted to TE in the NFL. 

 

Therefore, if Peterman were the only QB on our roster, he still wouldn't have been the best QB because our 3rd string TE would have been better.

 

Even if Logan Thomas weren't on the roster, Peterman only would have come in close 2nd to the piece of dust floating around in the Bills locker room.

 

That was not a logical fallacy.

 

That was hyperbole... sort of...

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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1 hour ago, syhuang said:

 

Now you're backtracking, now there are two kinds of Quarterbacks, listed Quaterbacks and actual Quarterbacks. In this case, your original statement needs to be changed to "even if he was the only listed Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best actual Quarterback on the roster" in order to make any sense.

 

You are welcome.

 

Nope. I am not. The league defines Quarterbacks for me. So I don't have to. Unlucky. 

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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays.

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Catchable 

 

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Uncatchable 

 

 

About the only interpretation of plays I had to do were for back shoulder throws, which were often obvious.

 

And I understand why you wouldn't believe this, but I truly and conscientiously tried to arrive, if anything, on the side of uncatchable with Allen. 

 

And that is a great description and if you followed that it your analysis cheers. As i said before great work i imagine it took quite a while.

 

I just want those “outcome” type stats I spoke of earlier to rise a bit and match up with these types of analyses before I anoint this kid a (to use the words of another poster here) “budding superstar.” Maybe I’m jaded and hard to please ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

But Allen is light years ahead of where I’d thought he be already so I hope I’m sitting here looking like the last one to see it. 

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These super duper steroid-charged advanced analytics are all well and good, but what the hell is wrong with just watching a player over ENTIRE games (not just highlights/lowlights) and making your decision based on that?

 

All this ***** about breaking down Allen's throws, the angle of his head, the microchip in his brain telling us what he was thinking about at the moment the ball was released, how long his finger nails were and whether that effected ball trajectory. 

 

All you really need to know is that when you watch every play from the season he obviously improved loads as the year went on, and he has all the intangibles that these metrics ironically cannot measure. I'm sure these analytics would have told us Tyrod was a better, more accurate QB than Allen. Watch the two of them play a significant number of games and you realize which one you'd rather have.

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8 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

....How much improvement are you expecting?

 

These are all 1st season numbers.

Darnold  57.5%

L. Jackson 58.2%

M Trubisky 59.4%

D Watson 61.8%

Mayfield 63.8%

 

Allen 52.8%

 

 

Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved.

 

Trubisky  66.6%  That is a nice jump of 7%  

Watson  68.3%  That is also a nice 7% Jump.

 

Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

 

7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected.

 

If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB.  That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB.

 

Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career.  

 

You are expecting A LOT to happen here.  1.  Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters.

And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely

 

You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement.


I'm thinking...15.2%.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays.

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Catchable 

 

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Uncatchable 

 

...

herein lies the problem with the analysis and why it essentially is/was a waste of time/effort.... in a way, it is also an unbalanced attempt to prove a negative.

 

why was not the speed of the pitch considered in catchable/uncatchable? why was not the sun blinding/not blinding a receiver considered? why was not the defenders coverage considered? why was not the bunions on the receivers feet considered? why was not....

 

which is why, 'completion percentage' is probably the best metric we have to determine how a QB is doing with regard. not some silly effort directed at a subjective analysis that in no way can possibly measure up to the positive of a 'completion percentage'.

 

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

... When you fall into the Goldilocks predicament, "just right" for one might be "too big" for another. As as you increase the variables, you also increase the gray lines, that's why I kept the gray lines at a minimum as much as possible....

which is right where you have landed with your attempt to prove a negative.

 

look, i understand that we all have BDS (Bills Derangement Syndrome) and want more than anything for Allen to be the next Kelly (or better) and as such, some of us will try to make any argument we can to convince ourselves that he is the man we have been waiting for. i want more than anything for him to be that guy as well but nothing, absolutely nothing is going to change the fact that he only completed 52% of his passes last year. you can try to look at it through rose colored glasses and say well, this, this and that and if that woks for you, fine. myself i prefer to reside in reality, the fact of the matter remains, he completed 52% of his passes last year. hopefully he will continue on his upward trajectory he embarked upon after returning from injury last year. I want to see him continue along that path this year and if he does, well... i think we should be on our way. however, creating silly items to make it so, will not make it so.

Edited by Foxx
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16 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Most people would agree that Mahomes is a better QB than Smith, but you realize that the Chefs added Sammy Watkins prior to the 2018 season, right?  With him and without him was almost a TD difference in scoring.

 

Also lost Kareem hunt for half the year.

(Not arguing just mentioning this fact)

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7 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

And that is a great description and if you followed that it your analysis cheers. As i said before great work i imagine it took quite a while.

 

I just want those “outcome” type stats I spoke of earlier to rise a bit and match up with these types of analyses before I anoint this kid a (to use the words of another poster here) “budding superstar.” Maybe I’m jaded and hard to please ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

But Allen is light years ahead of where I’d thought he be already so I hope I’m sitting here looking like the last one to see it. 

Agree entirely with the last sentence. Post draft, I thought Josh Allen was going to be a stone cold BUST. Even the most jaded cynics can now see that the kid has a shot because his strengths are greater than they could have imagined. I'm not sold(at all), but I CAN say that I have far more hope than I did prior to the season.

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10 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

.If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB.  That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB.

 

Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career.  

 

 

My take has always been that Allen will end up averaging around 58-59% completion most seasons. And that will be just fine. While that number is far lower than your typical QB in today's game, Allen does offer a lot of other traits that your typical QB does not. Some years 58-59% completion might not be enough to get us to the playoffs. Other years, 58-59% completion could put him in the MVP race. There really isn't a better comp for Allen right now than Cam Newton. 

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4 minutes ago, Foxx said:

look, i understand that we all have BDS (Bills Derangement Syndrome) and want more than anything for Allen to be the next Kelly (or better) and as such, some of us will try to make any argument we can to convince ourselves that he is the man we have been waiting for. i want more than anything for him to be that guy as well but nothing, absolutely nothing is going to change the fact that he only completed 52% of his passes last year. you can try to look at it through rose colored glasses and say well, this, this and that and if that woks for you, fine. myself i prefer to reside in reality, the fact of the matter remains, he completed 52% of his passes last year. hopefully he will continue on his upward trajectory he embarked upon after returning from injury last year. I want to see him continue along that path this year and if he does, well... i think we should be on our way. however, creating silly items to make it so, will not make it so.

Allen had one of the worst o-lines in the league, bottom five wr corps, and generally ineffective running game. He didn't have the luxury of a redshirt year or a coaching staff with proven offensive success like Mahomes. We'll see how he does going into camp with all the first-team reps, a year of experience, improved line, players, etc. Couldn't care less about numbers. Allen emerged as a player after the injury, imo. He was carrying that team. He's already a leader. We'll find out if truth or a mirage soon enough.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Also lost Kareem hunt for half the year.

(Not arguing just mentioning this fact)

 

True but Spencer Ware and Damien Williams had higher YPC averages and averaged the same number of receiving yards a game in the (5) games they started after Hunt was cut.

Edited by Doc
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Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Agree entirely with the last sentence. Post draft, I thought Josh Allen was going to be a stone cold BUST. Even the most jaded cynics can now see that the kid has a shot because his strengths are greater than they could have imagined. I'm not sold(at all), but I CAN say that I have far more hope than I did prior to the season.

 

i thought he was still trending towards bust until he came from his injury. But his improvement when he came back was remarkable. The game slowed down for him. He wasn't taking sacks left and right like he was before the injury. He realized how gifted he was athletically. And he cut down on the turnovers. Add in  personnel improvements across the board on offense and a full season with Robert Foster and you can definitely project improvement in year two.  

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1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

i thought he was still trending towards bust until he came from his injury. But his improvement when he came back was remarkable. The game slowed down for him. He wasn't taking sacks left and right like he was before the injury. He realized how gifted he was athletically. And he cut down on the turnovers. Add in  personnel improvements across the board on offense and a full season with Robert Foster and you can definitely project improvement in year two.  

I should have included that addendum in my previous post. I didn't even begin to budge on my stance until his play post injury. He looked exactly the way I expected him to look, even when you take into account the supporting cast and inexperience. Frankly, like crap. What I observed in those final 6 weeks provided a glimmer of hope that his mobility/huge arm/intangibles just might be enough to overcome the accuracy issues.

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9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

True but Spencer Ware and Damien Williams had higher YPC averages and averaged the same number of receiving yards a game in the (5) games they started after Hunt was cut.

 

Agreed.

I don't think they are anywhere near the player hunt is though.

It's like saying James Connor had similar numbers to Bell or how Smith Schuster had more yards and catches than ab.

A lot goes into it.

Hunt is better than both of them.

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2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I should have included that addendum in my previous post. I didn't even begin to budge on my stance until his play post injury. He looked exactly the way I expected him to look, even when you take into account the supporting cast and inexperience. Frankly, like crap. What I observed in those final 6 weeks provided a glimmer of hope that his mobility/huge arm/intangibles just might be enough to overcome the accuracy issues.

 

Yep. With that athletic ability, and if he can avoid the sacks and turnovers like he did in his final six games and take advantage of speed guys like Foster it is possible 58% completion will be good enough to make him a franchise QB. 

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1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

Agreed.

I don't think they are anywhere near the player hunt is though.

It's like saying James Connor had similar numbers to Bell or how Smith Schuster had more yards and catches than ab.

A lot goes into it.

Hunt is better than both of them.

 

Hunt is better in that he's a full-time starter.  You can get equal production out of the other 2 guys, like they did, but probably only in short spells, like last year.  I mean, looking at Williams' production with the Dols and then the Chefs for a couple games is like night and day, because as you said, a lot goes into it.  But that doesn't mean I think they should stick with Williams or even Spencer (who appears injury-prone).

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10 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Hunt is better in that he's a full-time starter.  You can get equal production out of the other 2 guys, like they did, but probably only in short spells, like last year.  I mean, looking at Williams' production with the Dols and then the Chefs for a couple games is like night and day, because as you said, a lot goes into it.  But that doesn't mean I think they should stick with Williams or even Spencer (who appears injury-prone).

 

Right on.

Anyway, at least in that system, mahomes looks better than Smith.

I'm not sure mahomes would work in a conservative offense.

I think Allen needs the wide open aggressive offense mahomes has also.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You understand that it's people, not technology that's doing the breakdown for these QBs, right? There's no AI that uses some kind of algorithm to decide what is an accurate vs an inaccurate pass. 

 

Also, those guys aren't using the dartboard approach. 

 

This is a highly highly subjective measure of ball placement, not accuracy. 

 

When you fall into the Goldilocks predicament, "just right" for one might be "too big" for another. As as you increase the variables, you also increase the gray lines, that's why I kept the gray lines at a minimum as much as possible.

 

Look I'm not going to say I know with 100% certainty that these guys are using software to help calculate an exact distance of the football from the receiver's stomach, but I think it's a perfectly reasonable assumption that they are. You don't need AI to do that.  If you know the measurements of surrounding people/objects, you can write a software program which calculates things like distance and accuracy pretty easily.  

 

Just because PFF decided to superimpose a receiver in the background in place of a dart board does not mean it's not a dart board, or that they're not calculating exact distance from the bulls eye. Look at the rings. There are four of them: the two inner ones on the body of the receiver and the two outer ones. Yes, they're also grouping location / ball placement data at various sections/rings of the dart board so we can get an idea of where the makes and misses are happening in relation to other QBs. So what? That's just more good info. It's a graphic -- it's meant to be illustrative and easy to understand, not provide an all encompassing picture of every part of their analysis. I highly doubt their "advanced pass location data" is actually just a "highly subjective measure of ball placement" based solely on one person's eye test, like what you did.  

 

Look, I get you're trying to defend your work, and again, thank you for putting the time and effort into it. But this isn't a case where somebody built an advanced box score stat to give a subjective measure of accuracy or someone like Jay Glazer or Aikman watched a few games and deemed Allen unworthy. PFF did exactly what you did, only they appear to have put a lot more professional resources into their work. BTW so did Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Info, and they all came to the same conclusion: Josh was the least accurate NFL QB last year. 

 

I think a reasonable person would look at your work and take it into consideration, but would probably put a lot less weight on it compared with these other sites whose entire business model revolves around being the best at this type of thing. You've gone way out of your way to prove that Allen, your favorite player on your favorite team, isn't any less accurate than the other rookie QBs. The more you continue pressing this issue and shooting down any naysayers, the more I question just how unbiased you really were with your eye test method. Just sayin.        

Edited by VW82

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Foxx said:

herein lies the problem with the analysis and why it essentially is/was a waste of time/effort.... in a way, it is also an unbalanced attempt to prove a negative.

 

why was not the speed of the pitch considered in catchable/uncatchable? why was not the sun blinding/not blinding a receiver considered? why was not the defenders coverage considered? why was not the bunions on the receivers feet considered? why was not....

 

which is why, 'completion percentage' is probably the best metric we have to determine how a QB is doing with regard. not some silly effort directed at a subjective analysis that in no way can possibly measure up to the positive of a 'completion percentage'.

 

First, congrats on civility and actually articulating yourself well for for the first time in a long time in any address to me

 

Why didn't I consider those things? Because I wasn't considering judgement in terms of where the defender was, though that number shows up in batted/tipped and Interceptable passes. I wasn't considering personal injury like bunions on a foot. I wasn't considering omniscience like knowing that the sun was going to blind Foster on a perfect pass.

 

I was just looking at catchable vs uncatchable while also factoring in spikes/Throwaways and batted/tipped passes and considering Interceptable passes in there, too.

 

As far as trying to prove a negative, I did the exact same thing for 5 other QBs, so that just doesn't make sense.

 

 

Quote

which is right where you have landed with your attempt to prove a negative.

 

look, i understand that we all have BDS (Bills Derangement Syndrome) and want more than anything for Allen to be the next Kelly (or better) and as such, some of us will try to make any argument we can to convince ourselves that he is the man we have been waiting for. i want more than anything for him to be that guy as well but nothing, absolutely nothing is going to change the fact that he only completed 52% of his passes last year. you can try to look at it through rose colored glasses and say well, this, this and that and if that woks for you, fine. myself i prefer to reside in reality, the fact of the matter remains, he completed 52% of his passes last year. hopefully he will continue on his upward trajectory he embarked upon after returning from injury last year. I want to see him continue along that path this year and if he does, well... i think we should be on our way. however, creating silly items to make it so, will not make it so.

 

I want to see improvements, too. 

 

But his 52% completion percentage, was as much or more a result of SooOOooo many things other than accuracy.

 

His accuracy was fine for a promising 1st round rookie QB in the NFL. Not great, but fine. He has improvements all facets of his game, for sure, but no more than the typical NFL rookie QB.

 

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

First, congrats on civility and actually articulating yourself well for for the first time in a long time in any address to me

 

Why didn't I consider those things? Because I wasn't considering judgement in terms of where the defender was, though that number shows up in batted/tipped and Interceptable passes. I wasn't considering personal injury like bunions on a foot. I wasn't considering omniscience like knowing that the sun was going to blind Foster on a perfect pass.

 

I was just looking at catchable vs uncatchable while also factoring in spikes/Throwaways and batted/tipped passes and considering Interceptable passes in there, too.

 

As far as trying to prove a negative, I did the exact same thing for 5 other QBs, so that just doesn't make sense.

 

 

 

I want to see improvements, too. 

 

But his 52% completion percentage, was as much or more a result of SooOOooo many things other than accuracy.

 

His accuracy was fine for a promising 1st round rookie QB in the NFL. Not great, but fine. He has improvements all facets of his game, for sure, but no more than the typical NFL rookie QB.

 

Then why focus on just his completion percentage and cloud the issue?

 

He didn't throw that many passes all season long or play in that many games.  Why not analyze every single pass he attempted all season long and make a fair judgment on whether or not the pass was accurate or inaccurate, and see what your findings are?

 

You could maybe assign a number grade to every throw. 

 

Plot the data and report back!

 

And then no one has to argue about this crap for 25 more pages!

 

 

 

Edited by Nextmanup
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Then why focus on just his completion percentage and cloud the issue?

 

I'm not. Others are.

 

Are you paying attention?

 

4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

 

He didn't throw that many passes all season long or play in that many games.  Why not analyze every single pass he attempted all season long and make a fair judgment on whether or not the pass was accurate or inaccurate, and see what your findings are?

 

You could maybe assign a number grade to every throw. 

 

Plot the data and report back!

 

And then no one has to argue about this crap for 25 more pages!

 

I did exactly that.

 

Did you even read the OP?

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm not. Others are.

 

Are you paying attention?

 

 

I did exactly that.

 

Did you even read the OP?

No!  LOL.

 

EDIT:  Just looked at your "grading" system in the first post.

 

That isn't really what I meant.  Your categories are too broad in my opinion.

 

For example, "catchable pass" is too broad or general of a category if you are truly trying to figure out how accurate a passer he is.

 

Stuff like obvious throwaways, spikes, etc. should just be thrown out.  No need to track that.

 

But I would go with like a 1-5 or maybe 1-3 scoring system for every pass where he is trying to throw the ball to a receiver.  And then try to break that down much more accurately in terms of anticipation, timing, and ball location.

 

A "1" could mean "horrible throw, nowhere near target" and a "5" could mean "hit him in the numbers or hands" regardless if the guy actually caught or dropped the ball.

 

And then 2, 3, and 4, fall in line along a spectrum between 1 and 5.


If that's too much scoring, go to a system of just 1, 2, and 3.

 

Of course there is going to be a subjective element to what grade you assign, but try to be fair about it.

 

When folks talk about accuracy of a QB, what they mean is he throws the ball at a receiver and delivers an easily catchable pass.

 

I'd like to see how many of those Allen threw compared to throws that don't match that description.

 

My position is that he is horrible inaccurate and that is not going to improve, even if some of the time, of course, he throws perfectly thrown balls.


So did EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Nextmanup

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This thread makes football not very fun for me...

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3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

My take has always been that Allen will end up averaging around 58-59% completion most seasons. And that will be just fine. While that number is far lower than your typical QB in today's game, Allen does offer a lot of other traits that your typical QB does not. Some years 58-59% completion might not be enough to get us to the playoffs. Other years, 58-59% completion could put him in the MVP race. There really isn't a better comp for Allen right now than Cam Newton. 

The best player to compare is the one we know the most, Jim Kelly. Jim's first 4 seasons in the NFL his completion % was 59. He didn't reach over 60% until he was 30 years old.  Jim's career completion % was 60.1

  You don't need 65+ do accomplish great things. If Josh averaged 58-59 that's fine by me.

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