Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[thebandit27]

Just now, RyanC883 said:

 

If I'm the Cardinals, and I think Murray is better than Rosen, I take him #1 and try to trade Rosen somewhere for a 1st.   Perhaps the Giants? 

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

[oldmanfan]

In the era of things like the Internet, cell phones, drive through liquor stores, etc, etc where we expect anything we want to be at our fingertips right now, I suppose it's to be expected that a team would draft a QB top ten one year and give up on himafter one season.

 

Rosen will be fine I think with time.  But why not replace him with a midget QB that could run towards MLB whenever he wants?

[thebandit27]

 

Their best bet for a trade partner would be a team like New Orleans or NE, where they are going for it all this year and can afford to let Rosen sit a year

[RyanC883]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

 

will be interesting to see.  Barkley is/was a stud.  Too good to pass-up.   But your right, the QB2 this year is likely better than Rosen.  Perhaps the Jags, who need an immediate player, and Rosen has the 1 year of experience to step-in day 1.  Or the Dolphins.  That would be fun.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I doubt you're getting a 1 for Rosen at this point; it's just not a strong endorsement that teams weren't in a hurry to get him last year, and the GM that drafted him is already looking to move on from him.

 

I also don't see the Giants, who could've had Rosen, but instead took a RB at #2 overall, giving up the #6 overall pick this year--a pick where they will very likely have their choice of the 2nd QB off the board.

 

If the Cardinals are already shopping Rosen, no way in HELL do they get a 1 for him!

[RobbRiddick]

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 3/1/2019 at 5:16 PM, RobbRiddick said:

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

 

It's possible.

 

Both Murray, who is predicted to go #1 this year, and Allen have or were big questions marks as to whether or no they will work out in the NFL. But the elite skills are tangible for both.

 

Murray's college resume was elite where as Allen's was not. I think that would prevent a team like the Cards to move off of a former 1st round pick the year prior to take a QB like Allen. 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[transplantbillsfan]

On 3/1/2019 at 3:16 PM, RobbRiddick said:

Here's a hypothetical: if Josh Allen was in the draft this year, would he go number 1? Would the Cards trade Rosen and take him, or would another team give up a bundle to trade up to number 1 and snag him?

 

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's possible.

 

Both Murray, who is predicted to go #1 this year, and Allen have or were big questions marks as to whether or no they will work out in the NFL. But the elite skills are tangible for both.

 

Murray's college resume was elite where as Allen's was not. I think that would prevent a team like the Cards to move off of a former 1st round pick the year prior to take a QB like Allen. 

 

Not that this is necessarily meaningful since Murray might replace a guy Jeremiah had graded out better than both him and Mayfield...

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-today-how-does-kyler-murray-compare-to-josh-allen

“In terms of grades, now this is the grade I had on them coming out, not what they've done. I have Darnold with the highest grade,” Jeremiah said. “Then it was Rosen, then it was Mayfield, and then I gave the same grade to Josh Allen as my fourth quarterback last year as I gave to Kyler Murray this year. So they would be tied for my fourth, and then I would have Haskins would be behind them and then Lamar Jackson would be behind him. So that would be the order I have stacking those guys in with last year's class based purely off the grade.”

Edited March 3, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

I think Jeremiah and Brooks largely nail why Allen is never going to be tops in the league in completion percentage.

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/what-they-re-saying-6-observations-on-the-bills-from-the-nfl-combine

“I think Brandon Beane and that organization is going to be able to go out there and surround him with the talent he needs, that fits what he does well,” says Jeremiah. “In my opinion, that’s getting a track team. Some speed out there. You can run the ball, run the ball, and then with his arm he’ll get big chunks. You don’t need to have 12-14 play drives with Josh Allen—you can eat the same with one bite.”

 

...

 

“The best thing that Josh Allen does is he can throw the ball down the field. You have to find a guy who can be a vertical threat down the field and also be a chain mover.”

 

If you're throwing downfield, they're lower percentage throws naturally.  You can be an accurate passer, but if you're throwing the ball downfield a lot more than your peer group, your completion % is naturally going to take a dip.

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/28/2019 at 9:03 AM, RyanC883 said:

I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen.  They are worse than Allen.  Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast."   He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB.  

 

 

 

If I could give you 1000 trophies for this post I would.  Rosen had a better cast than Allen, yet Allen got more out his worse cast and Rosens team is giving up on it seems after one season.  

 

I would kill to swap receivers and RBs with the Cardinals.  And our OL was just as bad, just that Allen isnt a statue back there and turns on the burners to escape.  

[transplantbillsfan]

This should help...

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Ya know... this is the kind of cherry picking that's just irritating:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/antonio-brown-trade-rumors-conflicting-reports-emerge-about-potential-bills-trade-as-free-agency-nears/amp/

Antonio Brown trade rumors: Conflicting reports emerge about potential Bills trade as free agency nears

But from Brown's perspective, it'd be impossible to see the reported trade as a win. He'd be going from Big Ben, a future Hall of Famer, to an inaccurate second-year quarterback who looks significantly better as a runner than a passer.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Exactly Mr. Beane.... exactly...

 

Courtesy of @stevewin

AS – We know he’s a great athlete, know he has a cannon for an arm.  In your opinion where does he need to get better

BB – It’s his decision making.  I hear the accuracy criticism, I don’t totally agree with that narrative.  It’s the decision making – and what it is is Josh is so competitive and he’s obviously got the arm, that he tries to make throws that a lot of guys can’t make so they don’t try even try it.  That was one of the areas of growth that we ket stressing to him – is it’s OK to take the 5 yd check down and move it to 2^nd and 5 instead of trying to squeeze it into the hole 18 -20 yards down the field that’ just lower percentage.  There are times for those but sometimes you just want to possess the ball and keep the chains moving depending on your defense.  There’s times we’re playing a tom Brady we don’t want to score too quick, we ant to keep him on the sidelines.  That’s just a maturity thing.  I’d rather have to pull him back then him be check down Charlie and trying to kick him and ask him to drive it down the field.

 

[BullBuchanan]

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

No. It is not.

[thebandit27]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

Show us a few examples of this consistent fastball-that-an-NFL-WR-can't-catch tendency from Josh's rookie season 

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

 

[Scorp83]

On 1/15/2019 at 2:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.

 

Regardless, I figured examining Allen's accuracy in comparison to his peers would help determine whether he truly somehow has the severe accuracy problems portrayed by the national media. I only did the 4 other rookies with Allen, not the 31 other starters. Would anyone expect Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or any of the 5 rookies to be as accurate as Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers?

They're rookies. That's why the 5 rookies are my ultimate points of comparison. And part of the point was also anecdotal. Just looking at Darnold and Allen, you see Darnold just throw some real head-scratchers that wind up being tipped or batted. These types of throws I so very rarely saw with Allen that I just didn't consider them negative throws. Darnold showed that those throws should largely be weighed negatively, so I adjusted. Methodology for all QBs were the same.
 

Rookies in the NFL are peers who have the same short offseason to work and, in the case of all 5 rookies, spent the entire offseason as presumed backups, taking 2nd and 3rd string snaps. Allen was talked about and is still talked about consistently as the rookie QB who has a serious accuracy problem, not the other guys. I wanted to test that narrative with my own eyes, so before this post reaches the TLDR category for the impatient, here were the final %s I came up with after watching every single pass of all 5 rookie QBs, arranged from best to worst.

 

UPDATE: I'm starting to go through some previous rookies, too.  Primarily I'm focusing on the "good rookies," meaning rookies who were considered as having pretty good rookie seasons.  So I started with Watson, as you can now see.

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways

1) Darnold - 79.5% (2019)
2) Allen -78.1% (2019)

3) Wentz - 77% (2016)
4) Mayfield -76.6% (2019)

5) Watson- 75.1% (2018)
6) Jackson -72.7% (2019)
7) Rosen - 71.6% (2019)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

1) Allen - 7.1% (2018)
2) Jackson -6% (2018)
3) Rosen - 5.8% (2018)
4) Darnold - 5.5% (2018)

5) Watson- 3.4% (2017)
6)) Mayfield -3.2% (2018)

7) Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

1) Wentz - 6.9% (2016)

2) Mayfield - 7.6% (2018)
3) Jackson - 8.5% (2018)
4) Allen - 8.7% (2018)
5) Rosen - 9.1% (2018)

6) Watson- 10.7% (2017)
7) Darnold - 11.2% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Sam Darnold

Total passes: 414

Catchable passes: 311

Uncatchable passes: 57

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 23

Interceptable passes: 44

 

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

Baker Mayfield

Total passes: 486

Catchable passes: 360

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 36

 

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

 

Deshaun Watson

Total passes: 204

Catchable passes: 148

Throwaway/Spikes: 7

Tipped/batted passes: 7

Interceptable passes: 21

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41

 

 

I have game by game breakdowns for every QB.

 

Like for Allen, week 16 against the Pats:

 

Catchable passes: 9 (Foster slips on one of these attempts that I thought was catchable)

Uncatchable passes:7 (One of these is a back shoulder fade to Zay that he never turns for that I marked uncatchable)

Throwaways: 3 (one of these is the near Safety Allen escaped from and flipped the ball away to the sidelines)

 

Tipped/Batted passes: 0

Interceptable passes: 2

 

 

or week 17 for Allen:

 

Catchable passes: 18

 

Uncatchable passes: 6

 

Throwaways: 2  (one of these was thrown into the ground)

 

Tipped/batted passes: 0

 

Interceptable passes: 1

 

Part of the reason I decided to go through this endeavor was because I saw this tweet 

And then seeing this:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

Kinda makes me think this is the reality

 

First off, let me explain my "methodology," so to speak...  I rewatched each "condensed" version of all of every rookie's games and made a judgment call on whether their incompletions were catchable or uncatchable.

 

That's it.  

 

No, I didn't do Coach's film, but I realize that would have been better, but also much more time consuming.  When there was a real question on a throw, gamepass has a slow motion option. This process took a few weeks to get through all 5 rookies.

 

I'm not judging ball placement, just whether the WR/TE/RB could reasonably have made a catch or not... even a great catch.  If he had a chance, I labelled it as "catchable."  If not, I labelled it as "uncatchable." 

 

Ball hits palm (or would with reasonable adjustment) = Catchable

 

Ball hits fingertips of outstretched arms or beyond = Uncatchable

 

That Clay non-catch in the EZ at the end of the Miami game is absolutely catchable because it's a catch you see NFL WRs and TEs across the league make frequently. It may not be Charles Clay catchable, but it's catchable.

 

I'm not making judgement calls on miscommunication or anything because I think that type of thing will largely even out in the end. So when I looked at the wide open Zay Jones miss in the back of the end zone in the Miami game--which we now know from post game interviews was a miscommunication where Allen assumed Jones was going to "sit" when he threw it--I labelled it as uncatchable. I saw one of those plays in Darnold's 2nd game that appears to also be a miscommunication.

So, my process is something you're obviously free to criticize, but I'm using the same process for all the rookies.

 

I tried to be as absolutely unbiased as I could be, but there's inherent subjectivity to this exercise. But do you agree that all (roughly) 35 of these passes are catchable?

 

 

 

And that's missing a good number, believe me. Remember Allen's interception in the Titans game that went right between Andre Holmes hands? Yeah... catchable... not Interceptable.

 

Now, on top of that, I also counted "throwaways" and "tipped/batted balls."

I also kept track of interceptable passes.  Each interceptable pass was also either a catchable pass, uncatchable pass, or tipped/batted ball for obvious reasons.  

I think it's important to discard throwaways when considering a QB's accuracy... and yes yes yes, I know that "ball placement is part of this equation, but that's highly highly highly subjective... much moreso than just whether a pass is catchable or not.

 

This is anecdotal, but I can tell you this, a huge number of Allen's catchable incompletions were targeting the liabilities of Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Charles Clay.

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

 

I think it's worth pointing out that passes where QB throws it to a WR and a DB steps in front to intercept it, but can't hang on, I'm counting in the category of "tipped/batted balls" along with obviously "Interceptable." Holy CRAP does Darnold throw a lot of those! These are the types of bad throws where maybe a QB just doesn't see a guy closing in that don't get intercepted, they just end up being passes defensed. This very rarely happened with Allen, but happened really frequently with Darnold.

 

The narrative seems to be that Allen succumbs to "Hero Ball" too much and takes too many risks with the football. I think there might be an argument to be made there up until he throws the football, but once Allen throws it, he appears to be the most conscientious of defenders in the realm of his intended target.

To me this idea that Allen is like Brett Favre--in terms of being a gunslinger--just doesn't hold water. Yes, he's consistently throwing farther than the other rookie QBs... actually farther than any other QB in the NFL. But he's not making a lot of risky throws. That's Darnold and Mayfield.

And while a lot of people look at those risky throws as indicative of better QB play, I'll give you these Next Gen stats of Aggressiveness %. Here's how it's defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

Looks to me like being aggressive with the football is something Josh Allen is not, and that may not be a bad thing based on the QBs accompanying him on the list.

 

The work so many stress Allen needs to do in the offseason regarding mechanics and just improving as a pocket passer is Jackson ×100. Baltimore does some brilliant stuff on offense in order to get WRs consistently pretty wide open and/or providing Jackson with just a single read passing wise. If anyone reminds me of Tebow this year, it's Jackson, and it's not even close.

 

Mayfield, like you might expect--I did--was the best passer of the bunch. His 2nd half of the year was much stronger than the 1st. Damn does he get a lot of balls batted at the line, though.

 

Rosen was pretty bad. He honestly might get the David Carr effect long term and never reach his potential largely because of the talent around him, honestly.

 

 

 

 

I'll be happy to answer any questions about my numbers, but I would encourage you to try this exercise yourself if you have those serious doubts. But if I were to ask you if you'd be happy with a QB who threw catchable footballs 78.1% of the time, would you be happy?

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Scorp83
Typo

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

 

Using a Gary Vee gif tells me all I need to know about this conversation.