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Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

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On 1/15/2019 at 2:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.

 

Regardless, I figured examining Allen's accuracy in comparison to his peers would help determine whether he truly somehow has the severe accuracy problems portrayed by the national media. I only did the 4 other rookies with Allen, not the 31 other starters. Would anyone expect Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or any of the 5 rookies to be as accurate as Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers?

They're rookies. That's why the 5 rookies are my ultimate points of comparison. And part of the point was also anecdotal. Just looking at Darnold and Allen, you see Darnold just throw some real head-scratchers that wind up being tipped or batted. These types of throws I so very rarely saw with Allen that I just didn't consider them negative throws. Darnold showed that those throws should largely be weighed negatively, so I adjusted. Methodology for all QBs were the same.
 

Rookies in the NFL are peers who have the same short offseason to work and, in the case of all 5 rookies, spent the entire offseason as presumed backups, taking 2nd and 3rd string snaps. Allen was talked about and is still talked about consistently as the rookie QB who has a serious accuracy problem, not the other guys. I wanted to test that narrative with my own eyes, so before this post reaches the TLDR category for the impatient, here were the final %s I came up with after watching every single pass of all 5 rookie QBs, arranged from best to worst.

 

UPDATE: I'm starting to go through some previous rookies, too.  Primarily I'm focusing on the "good rookies," meaning rookies who were considered as having pretty good rookie seasons.  So I started with Watson, as you can now see.

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways


1) Darnold - 79.5% (2019)
2) Allen -78.1% (2019)

3) Wentz - 77% (2016)
4) Mayfield -76.6% (2019)

5) Watson- 75.1% (2018)
6) Jackson -72.7% (2019)
7) Rosen - 71.6% (2019)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

1) Allen - 7.1% (2018)
2) Jackson -6% (2018)
3) Rosen - 5.8% (2018)
4) Darnold - 5.5% (2018)

5) Watson- 3.4% (2017)
6)) Mayfield -3.2% (2018)

7) Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

1) Wentz - 6.9% (2016)

2) Mayfield - 7.6% (2018)
3) Jackson - 8.5% (2018)
4) Allen - 8.7% (2018)
5) Rosen - 9.1% (2018)

6) Watson- 10.7% (2017)
7) Darnold - 11.2% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Sam Darnold

Total passes: 414

Catchable passes: 311

Uncatchable passes: 57

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 23

Interceptable passes: 44

 

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

Baker Mayfield

Total passes: 486

Catchable passes: 360

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 36

 

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

 

Deshaun Watson

Total passes: 204

Catchable passes: 148

Throwaway/Spikes: 7

Tipped/batted passes: 7

Interceptable passes: 21

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41

 

 

I have game by game breakdowns for every QB.

 

Like for Allen, week 16 against the Pats:

 

Catchable passes: 9 (Foster slips on one of these attempts that I thought was catchable)

Uncatchable passes:7 (One of these is a back shoulder fade to Zay that he never turns for that I marked uncatchable)

Throwaways: 3 (one of these is the near Safety Allen escaped from and flipped the ball away to the sidelines)

 

Tipped/Batted passes: 0

Interceptable passes: 2

 

 

or week 17 for Allen:

 

Catchable passes: 18

 

Uncatchable passes: 6

 

Throwaways: 2  (one of these was thrown into the ground)

 

Tipped/batted passes: 0

 

Interceptable passes: 1

 

Part of the reason I decided to go through this endeavor was because I saw this tweet 

And then seeing this:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

Kinda makes me think this is the reality

 

First off, let me explain my "methodology," so to speak...  I rewatched each "condensed" version of all of every rookie's games and made a judgment call on whether their incompletions were catchable or uncatchable.

 

That's it.  

 

No, I didn't do Coach's film, but I realize that would have been better, but also much more time consuming.  When there was a real question on a throw, gamepass has a slow motion option. This process took a few weeks to get through all 5 rookies.

 

I'm not judging ball placement, just whether the WR/TE/RB could reasonably have made a catch or not... even a great catch.  If he had a chance, I labelled it as "catchable."  If not, I labelled it as "uncatchable." 

 

Ball hits palm (or would with reasonable adjustment) = Catchable

 

Ball hits fingertips of outstretched arms or beyond = Uncatchable

 

That Clay non-catch in the EZ at the end of the Miami game is absolutely catchable because it's a catch you see NFL WRs and TEs across the league make frequently. It may not be Charles Clay catchable, but it's catchable.

 

I'm not making judgement calls on miscommunication or anything because I think that type of thing will largely even out in the end. So when I looked at the wide open Zay Jones miss in the back of the end zone in the Miami game--which we now know from post game interviews was a miscommunication where Allen assumed Jones was going to "sit" when he threw it--I labelled it as uncatchable. I saw one of those plays in Darnold's 2nd game that appears to also be a miscommunication.

So, my process is something you're obviously free to criticize, but I'm using the same process for all the rookies.

 

I tried to be as absolutely unbiased as I could be, but there's inherent subjectivity to this exercise. But do you agree that all (roughly) 35 of these passes are catchable?

 

 

 

And that's missing a good number, believe me. Remember Allen's interception in the Titans game that went right between Andre Holmes hands? Yeah... catchable... not Interceptable.

 

Now, on top of that, I also counted "throwaways" and "tipped/batted balls."


I also kept track of interceptable passes.  Each interceptable pass was also either a catchable pass, uncatchable pass, or tipped/batted ball for obvious reasons.  


I think it's important to discard throwaways when considering a QB's accuracy... and yes yes yes, I know that "ball placement is part of this equation, but that's highly highly highly subjective... much moreso than just whether a pass is catchable or not.

 

This is anecdotal, but I can tell you this, a huge number of Allen's catchable incompletions were targeting the liabilities of Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Charles Clay.

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

 

I think it's worth pointing out that passes where QB throws it to a WR and a DB steps in front to intercept it, but can't hang on, I'm counting in the category of "tipped/batted balls" along with obviously "Interceptable." Holy CRAP does Darnold throw a lot of those! These are the types of bad throws where maybe a QB just doesn't see a guy closing in that don't get intercepted, they just end up being passes defensed. This very rarely happened with Allen, but happened really frequently with Darnold.

 

The narrative seems to be that Allen succumbs to "Hero Ball" too much and takes too many risks with the football. I think there might be an argument to be made there up until he throws the football, but once Allen throws it, he appears to be the most conscientious of defenders in the realm of his intended target.

To me this idea that Allen is like Brett Favre--in terms of being a gunslinger--just doesn't hold water. Yes, he's consistently throwing farther than the other rookie QBs... actually farther than any other QB in the NFL. But he's not making a lot of risky throws. That's Darnold and Mayfield.

And while a lot of people look at those risky throws as indicative of better QB play, I'll give you these Next Gen stats of Aggressiveness %. Here's how it's defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

Looks to me like being aggressive with the football is something Josh Allen is not, and that may not be a bad thing based on the QBs accompanying him on the list.

 

The work so many stress Allen needs to do in the offseason regarding mechanics and just improving as a pocket passer is Jackson ×100. Baltimore does some brilliant stuff on offense in order to get WRs consistently pretty wide open and/or providing Jackson with just a single read passing wiseIf anyone reminds me of Tebow this year, it's Jackson, and it's not even close.

 

Mayfield, like you might expect--I did--was the best passer of the bunch. His 2nd half of the year was much stronger than the 1st. Damn does he get a lot of balls batted at the line, though.

 

Rosen was pretty bad. He honestly might get the David Carr effect long term and never reach his potential largely because of the talent around him, honestly.

 

 

 

 

I'll be happy to answer any questions about my numbers, but I would encourage you to try this exercise yourself if you have those serious doubts. But if I were to ask you if you'd be happy with a QB who threw catchable footballs 78.1% of the time, would you be happy?

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

Edited by Scorp83
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On 3/16/2019 at 9:44 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

To put Allen in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous???? :blink:

 

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

 

Allen was Sisyphus. But he kept pushing that boulder up the hill anyway, despite little help and knowing it was about to roll right back down.

 

 

Hey... aren't you the guy who thought Peterman should be our starter? :lol:

On 3/17/2019 at 5:56 AM, Scorp83 said:

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

 

Wait I'm sorry, are you accusing me of providing incomplete stats? 

 

I didn't. It's there. Look closer.

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On 3/17/2019 at 10:56 AM, Scorp83 said:

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

Dawg never quote an OP that long in full again hahaha it was impossible to see what you wrote

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Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

 

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24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

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Lol @ ‘touch’. How about catch the ball and don’t complain that it’s moving too fast.

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27 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

 

That's decision making and while one of the most important attributes of a QB it definitely isn't the same thing as accuracy.

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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

To put Allen in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous???? :blink:

 

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

 

Allen was Sisyphus. But he kept pushing that boulder up the hill anyway, despite little help and knowing it was about to roll right back down.

 

 

Hey... aren't you the guy who thought Peterman should be our starter? :lol:

 

Wait I'm sorry, are you accusing me of providing incomplete stats? 

 

I didn't. It's there. Look closer.

I'm the guy who thought Peterman would be the starter, and he was. Need any more reminders of times I was right and you were wrong? Spoiler: it's this conversation. Allen could very well get better, but as of today, yes - it's ridiculous to put Allen in the same class as Mayfield. They're both the same players they were going into the draft as of right now, and that's a positive for Mayfield and a knock for Allen.

I hope to hell he gets better, because he's the guy we got.

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2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

All of this critique is fine. However, the reason I decided to go through this endeavor WITHOUT including any breakdowns of ball placement or especially where the ball was supposed to go was because, first of all, I don't know crap about specific NFL playbooks. Hell, even the "experts" don't know crap about the 2018 Brian Daboll NFL playbook, do they? Do you really think these guys who are experts can truly break down #1 read vs #2 read vs hot read vs etc.? If you have that much faith in them, be blissful in... well, you get my drift, and if you don't, enjoy.

 

But most of all, what I tried to do was the most objectively subjective breakdown I could possibly do.

 

And I think my efforts stand.

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2 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

 

Completion % is everything, huh?

 

You're not seeing the big picture here if you're just brushing aside the talent gap.

 

Rookie QBs...

 

#1: 54.1% completion percentage, 1.75 TDs per game, 1.75 turnovers per game.

 

#2: 52.8% completion percentage, 1.5 TDs per game, 1.2 turnovers per game.

 

 

One had the benefit of an entire offseason of reps with the 1st team.

 

One was relegated to a QB competition against inferior QBs and got a fraction of the snaps in the offseason with the 1s.

 

 

Are you still so sure completion percentage is everything?

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30 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm the guy who thought Peterman would be the starter, and he was. Need any more reminders of times I was right and you were wrong? Spoiler: it's this conversation. Allen could very well get better, but as of today, yes - it's ridiculous to put Allen in the same class as Mayfield. They're both the same players they were going into the draft as of right now, and that's a positive for Mayfield and a knock for Allen.

I hope to hell he gets better, because he's the guy we got.

 

Oh that's precious... trying yo make it seem like you were merely making a prediction about Peterman rather than being all over his jock the way you were.

 

Congrats for being right about our Head Coach being a total moron in that decision, but you weren't just putting that out there as some kind of hesitant prediction. You desperately wanted Peterman to start, for whatever weird reason. Apparently you missed Peterman's appearances against the Chargers and Jaguars in 2017.

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3 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

Another guy who does not get that completion percentage is not accuracy.  Read the thread before commenting.  Within it you'll see why.

 

Just as an example why, if a QB makes 30 throws in a game and has two drops by receivers and one throwaway, it moves him from 52% to the magical 60% so many want  if those are taken out.  Those have nothing to do with accuracy.

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4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Another guy who does not get that completion percentage is not accuracy.  Read the thread before commenting.  Within it you'll see why.

 

Just as an example why, if a QB makes 30 throws in a game and has two drops by receivers and one throwaway, it moves him from 52% to the magical 60% so many want  if those are taken out.  Those have nothing to do with accuracy.

I'm not saying it is. I think it still tells another story of QB ability. I get the premise of the thread. I still think completion percentage means something. The stat lumps a lot of things outside the Quarterback's power, sure, but it's still an important information in tandem with other QB stats.

 

I'm not going to dismiss it as not important. At the end of the day it's highly correlated with moving the chains. I want to move the chains

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

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20 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I'm not saying it is. I think it still tells another story of QB ability. I get the premise of the thread. I still think completion percentage means something. The stat lumps a lot of things outside the Quarterback's power, sure, but it's still an important information in tandem with other QB stats.

 

I'm not going to dismiss it as not important. At the end of the day it's highly correlated with moving the chains. I want to move the chains

I agree with this.  But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.

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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion % is everything, huh?

 

You're not seeing the big picture here if you're just brushing aside the talent gap.

 

Rookie QBs...

 

#1: 54.1% completion percentage, 1.75 TDs per game, 1.75 turnovers per game.

 

#2: 52.8% completion percentage, 1.5 TDs per game, 1.2 turnovers per game.

  

 

One had the benefit of an entire offseason of reps with the 1st team.

 

One was relegated to a QB competition against inferior QBs and got a fraction of the snaps in the offseason with the 1s.

  

 

Are you still so sure completion percentage is everything?

well... yep you nailed it: it's most everything, including poor WRs, poor protection, and.. I guess preseason reps for you. I'm saying it's tons of variables lumped into a pretty simple metric. So it just need to be considered in context.. as you've written as much. I'm not saying it's everything that defines a quarterback. It's everything that determines if a ball gets thrown and caught. Which is a good thing. You want that to happen a lot.

 

It also shows quarterback's touch, IQ, reading the field, accuracy, throw power. In needs to be viewed not in a vacuum, but in context with YPC, drops, all that. It's so many factors lumped into one thing. That's ultimately what you're saying anyway. But it's important to have a good completion %. It's a telling stat, regardless of what determines it, it's ultimately a good metric a team wants to improve on. Not something to be dismissed because you don't like the criticism.

 

if you want it to be more a team stat then so be it. It certainly is. The degree to which completion % is individual or team can be reasonably interpreted differently. Your work essentially is an attempt to convert it into an individual stat. And out of 7 guys, the rankings roughly follow completion % anyway. Variance is significantly reduced after your conversion, so without seeing how more quarterbacks would get converted, it appears the individual conversion of the stat puts all quarterbacks closer together (makes sense). 

 

I was simply giving you an example where Baker makes a throw that more often gets completed than JA would. JA has throws that Baker can't make. They both put a tiny dent in your completion %.

 

It's literally everything that indicates how many throws get caught. This is completion %.

 

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

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Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

 I agree with this.  But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.

Yep it's everything in football that leads to a throw being caught. Accuracy is included in all that.

 

I think it gets associated with accuracy for people when taking a quarterback's career completion. Over a large sample size a ton of these things change up and down. On aggregate it becomes a wash. The only constant is the thrower after say 240 games. Over a single season I don't think accuracy should be credited as much for completion %. Over a career I do think it becomes a more individual stat, making accuracy, touch, throw power, reading defenses the primary drivers.

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4 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

 

Lol.  Fire post.  "I'm going to ignore the mountain of statistical evidence and accompanying analysis, and instead go with my gut on this."  

 

Its the literal equivelant of "The earth is flat, any one with eyes can see the earth is flat."  

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