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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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5 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Brown had a very high drop rate last year. Beasley should help improve the overall drop rate slightly. 

 

And let's hope Zay is much better and Foster keeps improving.

 

I think cutting Clay was ultimately addition by subtraction.

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5 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Brown had a very high drop rate last year. Beasley should help improve the overall drop rate slightly. 

Look at who was throwing the ball to brown and how many of those were on the edge of catchable and that says a lot. If you look at Brown before last year he was fine. I am not worried.

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5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Look at who was throwing the ball to brown and how many of those were on the edge of catchable and that says a lot. If you look at Brown before last year he was fine. I am not worried.

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

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but Allen = inaccurate is the media narrative, scripted for announcers by producers.  He just needs to go out and win games and all of it will largely go away.  No one talks about Cam being inaccurate when they are winning.   Ignore the media.  Lets see how he does on the field this year.  

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1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

but Allen = inaccurate is the media narrative, scripted for announcers by producers.  He just needs to go out and win games and all of it will largely go away.  No one talks about Cam being inaccurate when they are winning.   Ignore the media.  Lets see how he does on the field this year.  

 

No, but that doesn't change the fact that he is still, in comparison to the other top QBs inaccurate.

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2 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

 

That was not How about Lamar Jackson? you no the RB playing QB? lol? and you made my point in itself. so yea.. lol..

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Allen is a stronger running QB than Tyrod was-which is amazing. Yes, you don't want the guy to get hurt but his running ability-especially near the goal line is a major weapon the D has to account for. He will always be more effective than his passing stats-the goal is to win.

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3 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

 

I don't think Flacco at QB was the problem for Brown.

Here are Brown's 2018 splits by quarter season.  Lamar Jackson took over at QB with Game 10. (if you click on the chart, it will embiggen)

 

image.thumb.png.167ada1cf305070e07ad079b2679c3c5.png

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9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

And let's hope Zay is much better and Foster keeps improving.

I think cutting Clay was ultimately addition by subtraction.

 

I kind of picture Clay and Kelvin sitting together, in a hot tub or maybe a bar, counting their Benjamins and agreeing "process my ass, why bust it for a QB who is not Tom Brady?

 

I don't think Arizona is going to like Clay too much.  But I could be wrong.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think Flacco at QB was the problem for Brown.

Here are Brown's 2018 splits by quarter season.  Lamar Jackson took over at QB with Game 10. (if you click on the chart, it will embiggen)

 

image.thumb.png.167ada1cf305070e07ad079b2679c3c5.png

a lot of people don't realize brown was on pace for an 1100 yd season 8 games into last season. I've been preaching that since before we even signed him. 

 

Jackson rendered him and any other perimeter player obsolete last year...… if I was marquise brown I think I may have wanted to get drafted by any of the other 31 nfl teams.

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I kind of picture Clay and Kelvin sitting together, in a hot tub or maybe a bar, counting their Benjamins and agreeing "process my ass, why bust it for a QB who is not Tom Brady?

 

I don't think Arizona is going to like Clay too much.  But I could be wrong.

in hindsight the most impactful play clay ever "made" was the drop in Miami saving us 6( maybe it was 7)draft slots and landing oliver.

Edited by Stank_Nasty

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I kind of picture Clay and Kelvin sitting together, in a hot tub or maybe a bar, counting their Benjamins and agreeing "process my ass, why bust it for a QB who is not Tom Brady?

 

I don't think Arizona is going to like Clay too much.  But I could be wrong.

whaley.jpg

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6 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

whaley.jpg

Honestly, Tim Murray looks like he got a raw deal.  And a lot of Whaley guys played big roles on good teams.  Also, Osteria is a really good Buffalo restaurant.

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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Honestly, Tim Murray looks like he got a raw deal.  And a lot of Whaley guys played big roles on good teams.  Also, Osteria is a really good Buffalo restaurant.

It's just the image I pictured while reading his statement. I thought about dropping KB & Clay's faces, but didn't feel like actually doing it.

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7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

That was not How about Lamar Jackson? you no the RB playing QB? lol? and you made my point in itself. so yea.. lol..

It’s funny that some people make every excuse in the world for Allen and say Jackson, with a better completion %, is a RB playing qb.  A lot of times, Allen played like a rb playing qb too.  

 

Trust me, I’m not passing Judgment on either guy.  I basically had Allen and Jackson ranked the same in the draft because they both had certain flaws.  I just hate the double standards some people use.  But I would guess Allen will have the better career going forward because Jackson seems to make some questionable decisions on and off the field. 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It's just the image I pictured while reading his statement. I thought about dropping KB & Clay's faces, but didn't feel like actually doing it.

No I know haha.  It’s just that the Sabres fires their GM; ended up with a worse record; and saw the goalie he got become one of the best in the league; o’reilly Have a career season; and Kane have 30 goals.  He wasn’t the problem haha.

 

also, this regime acquired fat Kelvin after seeing him up close and personal.  That can not be stated enough. So bad. 

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3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s funny that some people make every excuse in the world for Allen and say Jackson, with a better completion %, is a RB playing qb.  A lot of times, Allen played like a rb playing qb too.  

 

Nonononononononono...

 

This is a moment where I'll simply encourage you to actually go watch Jackson's snaps with the Ravens and then Allen's with the Bills.

 

Allen was running for his life because of horrible OL play.  The VAST majority of his runs and rushing yards came on passing plays.  And yes, of course you could find plays where he bailed early, but MOST of them were him making lemonade out of lemons.

 

Jackson, by contrast, was in an offensive system that set him off running on designed runs the vast majority of the time.  And even many of his passing plays were getting him on the run rolling out to one side of the field in an effort to fake that he was going to run.

 

The distinction between the 2 is absolutely fair.  Jackson had loads more work to do in the offseason if he's going to become a long term pocket passer than Allen did.

 

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Trust me, I’m not passing Judgment on either guy.  I basically had Allen and Jackson ranked the same in the draft because they both had certain flaws.  I just hate the double standards some people use.  But I would guess Allen will have the better career going forward because Jackson seems to make some questionable decisions on and off the field. 

 

See above.

 

No double standards here.

 

Jackson just had waaaAAAaaaayyyy more designed runs than Allen.

 

I have the actual numbers somewhere distinguishing between designed runs and scrambles, if you want them.

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I think its funny that people think they are about the same QB and don't see the differences do to stats alone....

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I have been working on a QB study lately but I haven't finished with my in-completion study yet.  I've finished with interceptions, fumbles and sacks.  So far I have only done 6 games on in-completions but I can give an excellent example of why completion % is not a great indicator of accuracy.  Of the 6 games I have done, Josh Allen has the lowest responsibility percentage for his incomplete passes.  He went 6 for 15 (40%) in that game but I only charged him for 1.3 of the 9 incomplete passes he had.  4 of his passes were dropped but 2 of those had a degree of difficulty that he received partial blame for.  He threw 3 of the passes away and I found some questionable fault with 1 of those because it was debatable that he had a receiver open.  He had 1 pass defended, which it means it was on target but he couldn't get it past the defender.  None of his passes were actually completely off target in that game so a 40% completion rate does nothing to portray his true accuracy.

 

The surprising result is that the guy who was most responsible for his incomplete passes in these week 1 games was Tom Brady.  Brady was 26 of 39 (66.7) in that game.  I charged Brady with 8.1 incomplete passes out of the 13 that he had.  He had 3 passes defended, 1 bad throw away and 5 inaccurate passes.

 

Brady was the more inaccurate passer based on these 2 games and yet the completion % doesn't reflect that at all.  Brady was much more productive but the team around him allowed for him to make more bad plays because they don't screw up themselves as much as the players around Allen.  That gave Brady more opportunity to be more productive.  I am very curious to see the end results but it will be a while.

 

I don't think Allen is as inaccurate as he is made out to be.  He had a lot of throw aways and dropped passes and not a lot of attempts, so his completion % is not a good indicator of his true accuracy.

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9 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I have been working on a QB study lately but I haven't finished with my in-completion study yet.  I've finished with interceptions, fumbles and sacks.  So far I have only done 6 games on in-completions but I can give an excellent example of why completion % is not a great indicator of accuracy.  Of the 6 games I have done, Josh Allen has the lowest responsibility percentage for his incomplete passes.  He went 6 for 15 (40%) in that game but I only charged him for 1.3 of the 9 incomplete passes he had.  4 of his passes were dropped but 2 of those had a degree of difficulty that he received partial blame for.  He threw 3 of the passes away and I found some questionable fault with 1 of those because it was debatable that he had a receiver open.  He had 1 pass defended, which it means it was on target but he couldn't get it past the defender.  None of his passes were actually completely off target in that game so a 40% completion rate does nothing to portray his true accuracy.

 

The surprising result is that the guy who was most responsible for his incomplete passes in these week 1 games was Tom Brady.  Brady was 26 of 39 (66.7) in that game.  I charged Brady with 8.1 incomplete passes out of the 13 that he had.  He had 3 passes defended, 1 bad throw away and 5 inaccurate passes.

 

Brady was the more inaccurate passer based on these 2 games and yet the completion % doesn't reflect that at all.  Brady was much more productive but the team around him allowed for him to make more bad plays because they don't screw up themselves as much as the players around Allen.  That gave Brady more opportunity to be more productive.  I am very curious to see the end results but it will be a while.

 

I don't think Allen is as inaccurate as he is made out to be.  He had a lot of throw aways and dropped passes and not a lot of attempts, so his completion % is not a good indicator of his true accuracy.

 

Are you doing all games for every QB?  What's your methodology?  Are you able to post any of your comparative numbers?

 

Sounds interesting... let us know what you come up with!  :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Are you doing all games for every QB?  What's your methodology?  Are you able to post any of your comparative numbers?

 

Sounds interesting... let us know what you come up with!  :thumbsup:

 

I am doing all the games for all the QB's.  Allen finished 2nd in my adjusted rushing yards.  Which exclude Kneel downs and sneak yards.  I also added yards called back from penalties and yards behind the line of scrimmage when the QB had to get away from unblocked rushers.  Of the QB's with 50 or more rushes, Allen ranked 2nd in my adjusted average yards.  He was 5th in broken / missed tackles.  He had the most yards from scrambling.  Lamar Jackson who was 1st, got most of his yards from called runs.  Allen is clearly one of the elite QB's at scrambling.  The good thing is that he did it because it was given to him or necessary and not really because it was a crutch. 

 

Allen was 33rd (out of 44) in my adjusted sack % which takes into account coverage and pressure.  Allen's biggest reason for improvement after injury was because his sack% went down and his rushing went up.  It wasn't necessarily because the line improved or the receivers got better.  Notable QB's with a higher sack %; Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, DeShaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Tyrod Taylor.

 

He was tied for 21st (out of 43) in fumble % which takes into account situation and pressure.  Notable QB's with the same or higher fumble %; Mitchell Truibisky, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Josh Rosen, Tyrod Taylor and Lamar Jackson.

 

He was tied for 31st (out of 40) in interception % which takes into account coverage, pressure and situation.  Notable QB's with a higher int%; Mitchell Truibisky, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold and Ryan Tannehill.

 

I don't really want to share all of the information, there is a lot of work and time involved and I will probably have to sell the information once the study is done.  I will attach the incompletion study since it is very early in the process and there isn't that much information on the sheet and you can get an idea of what I'm doing.  See attachment for that.

 

 

Incompletion Study - 2018.pdf

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Allen is less accurate than all the other QB's you list in your title statement. Therefore the statement is false. Just accept reality.

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17 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Allen is less accurate than all the other QB's you list in your title statement. Therefore the statement is false. Just accept reality.

 

I love posts like this that contain zero context and simply tell people that they are wrong.

 

They are so compelling.

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17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I love posts like this that contain zero context and simply tell people that they are wrong.

 

They are so compelling.

 

If you can't beat em, beat em down! ;) 

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18 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Allen is less accurate than all the other QB's you list in your title statement. Therefore the statement is false. Just accept reality.

Thank god you came to let us know here on page 27 who knows how much longer this thread could of become.

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49 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Thank god you came to let us know here on page 27 who knows how much longer this thread could of become.

it's already gone 26 pages longer than it probably should have.

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19 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Allen is less accurate than all the other QB's you list in your title statement. Therefore the statement is false. Just accept reality.

 

Except for the fact that you simply can't definitively say that because I highly doubt you actually scrutinized every single pass of every single QB or watched every single Allen pass  at least a handful of times.

 

Deep down in your gut, you know that what you're saying is based on just that, your gut.... "this is the national narrative, so it must be true!!!"

 

Come back to me when you've watched every single pass of all those QBs at least once.

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