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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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12 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

It's a fair bet he probably watched less than half. 

 

But even if he did see them all, I think his assessment of Josh is all wrong. How can he be so big on Rosen who had a similar completion percentage and an equally bad OLine.

 

His assessment is inconsistent at best.

Josh makes up for his occasional inaccuracy with big plays.... I'll take the occasional overthrow or WTF was that throw if he is making big plays with his leg and arm like he started to do towards the end of the season.

 

I would like to see him cut down on the absolute bone head throws that he does make which go back to his days at Wyoming...

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Just now, ScottLaw said:

Josh makes up for his occasional inaccuracy with big plays.... I'll take the occasional overthrow or WTF was that throw if he is making big plays with his leg and arm like he started to do towards the end of the season.

 

I would like to see him cut down on the absolute bone head throws that he does make which go back to his days at Wyoming...

 

Just so I'm clear .... are you asserting that a rookie QB in the NFL made some bad throws?  Because I watch a lot of football and I never saw Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson or Rosen do that.  

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1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

Just so I'm clear .... are you asserting that a rookie QB in the NFL made some bad throws?  Because I watch a lot of football and I never saw Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson or Rosen do that.  

Yep, that's what I'm asserting.... I'd like to see them stop as he gets more experience. 

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5 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Just so I'm clear .... are you asserting that a rookie QB in the NFL made some bad throws?  Because I watch a lot of football and I never saw Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson or Rosen do that.  

I think I saw Rosen throw a bad one once.  

 

;)

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Just now, buffaloboyinATL said:

I think I saw Rosen throw a bad one once.  

 

;)

 

That was a fluke.  Allen's bad passes are because he sucks and he went to Wyoming.

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Posted (edited)

Riddick's analysis is way off base. Allen had no success with KB(I get it, he sucks) and throwing 50/50 balls doesn't appear to be his thing. I think they acquired the right KIND of receivers; guys that are able to create separation. Much of his success came when he and Foster developed rapport DOWN the field. His take that the Bills should prioritize a bunch of big body/large catch radius types is not only lazy, but goes against the way the NFL is currently being played. 

 

It makes sense in theory; he's not particularly accurate so he should be throwing to guys with larger frames. It just isn't something I believe would translate well on the field. Separation is just as, if not more important than catch radius if your QB misses the spot more than league average.

 

It would be nice if they had a 6'3 receiver he could try to stick on 3rd and 10. I just don't think it's a NEED.

 

What you NEED are guys that are able to adjust to the ball whether they're 5'9 or 6'5.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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8 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

 

What you NEED are guys that are able to just to the ball whether they're 5'9 or 6'5.

 

Get open and catch the ball. It doesn't matter if you run a 4.4 or a 4.8 and it doesn't matter if you are 5'9 or 6'5...... get open and catch the ball. That is all it is about.

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11 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Riddick's analysis is way off base. Allen had no success with KB(I get it, he sucks) and throwing 50/50 balls doesn't appear to be his thing. I think they acquired the right KIND of receivers; guys that are able to create separation. Much of his success came when he and Foster developed rapport DOWN the field. His take that the Bills should prioritize a bunch of big body/large catch radius types is not only lazy, but goes against the way the NFL is currently being played. 

 

It makes sense in theory; he's not particularly accurate so he should be throwing to guys with larger frames. It just isn't something I believe would translate well on the field. Separation is just as, if not more important than catch radius if your QB misses the spot more than league average.

 

It would be nice if they had a 6'3 receiver he could try to stick on 3rd and 10. I just don't think it's a NEED.

 

What you NEED are guys that are able to just to the ball whether they're 5'9 or 6'5.

in all fairness would throwing 50/50 balls have been any qb's thing on last years squad?

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I have finished all of Josh Allen's games.  His final adjusted completion % is 74.2%.  That number factors in everything, decision making and pressure.  In terms of catch-able passes which only takes into account plays where a completion should have been expected based on the decision the QB made and the receivers availability; his % is 86.8%.  Some interesting notes:  Two of his worst games in catch-able % was in wins against Miami and Tennessee.  That Miami game was also his 3rd worst in adjusted completion%.  He made up for the lower % with his running ability which was highly effective in that game.

 

Game by Game notes

Baltimore - came in late during a blow-out.  Low % was because of team more than anything.  All of the incomplete passes I attributed to him were because of decision making, which is expected in a QB's first action.  Accuracy wasn't an issue.

 

L.A. Chargers - Accuracy wasn't an issue.  Decision making was.

 

 Minnesota - Accuracy and decision making were both good in this game with only 2 bad plays attributed to Allen, 1 poor decision and 1 poor throw.

 

Green Bay - Decision making was more of a problem in this game than accuracy but he had some issues with both.  This was his worst game and 1 of 2 where I had him in the 60's for adjusted %.

 

Tennessee - Accuracy was an issue in this game with 3 un-catch-able passes in only 14 attempts.

 

Houston - This was a pretty good game with 1 questionable accuracy and 2 questionable decisions.

 

Jacksonville - This was a decent game with accuracy being the main issue but he was still at an 80% catch-able rate.

 

Miami - This was Allen's 2nd worst game in terms of adjusted %.  It is the only other game in the 60% range, although at 69.3 it was very close to 70%.  This was one of his most inaccurate games (tied for 2nd) so that was more of a problem than decision making.

 

N.Y. Jets - This game was close to equal share of bad passes and questionable decisions.  His accuracy % wasn't bad at 86.2% but combine it with the decisions and he wasn't good enough in this game, with the ending being the most disappointing part.

 

Detroit - Accuracy was perfectly fine in this game.  Decision making could have been better but overall this was his 3rd best game in adjusted %.

 

New England - This was similar to the Jets game where accuracy wasn't necessarily an issue and decision making was really what affected his %.  There were also some big plays lost because of receivers or issues with the sun.

 

Miami - This was a dominating win but not necessarily one of Allen's best days in the passing game.  It is actually his worst in terms of catch-able %, which made it the 3rd worst in adjusted %.

 

Overall, I don't think accuracy is really an issue.  I do think it will improve with a better team around him.  Less pressure and more experience should make him a better decision maker which will also make him more accurate because he is playing with more confidence in himself and the team around him.

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3 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I have finished all of Josh Allen's games.  His final adjusted completion % is 74.2%.  That number factors in everything, decision making and pressure.  In terms of catch-able passes which only takes into account plays where a completion should have been expected based on the decision the QB made and the receivers availability; his % is 86.8%.  Some interesting notes:  Two of his worst games in catch-able % was in wins against Miami and Tennessee.  That Miami game was also his 3rd worst in adjusted completion%.  He made up for the lower % with his running ability which was highly effective in that game. ...

it is hard to really understand these numbers without having them in the proper context. that being, the numbers for the other top 36 QB's in the league. having the proper context could possibly give meaning to them but maybe not. until that happens ...

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5 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I have finished all of Josh Allen's games.  His final adjusted completion % is 74.2%.  That number factors in everything, decision making and pressure.  In terms of catch-able passes which only takes into account plays where a completion should have been expected based on the decision the QB made and the receivers availability; his % is 86.8%.  Some interesting notes:  Two of his worst games in catch-able % was in wins against Miami and Tennessee.  That Miami game was also his 3rd worst in adjusted completion%.  He made up for the lower % with his running ability which was highly effective in that game.

 

Game by Game notes

Baltimore - came in late during a blow-out.  Low % was because of team more than anything.  All of the incomplete passes I attributed to him were because of decision making, which is expected in a QB's first action.  Accuracy wasn't an issue.

 

L.A. Chargers - Accuracy wasn't an issue.  Decision making was.

 

 Minnesota - Accuracy and decision making were both good in this game with only 2 bad plays attributed to Allen, 1 poor decision and 1 poor throw.

 

Green Bay - Decision making was more of a problem in this game than accuracy but he had some issues with both.  This was his worst game and 1 of 2 where I had him in the 60's for adjusted %.

 

Tennessee - Accuracy was an issue in this game with 3 un-catch-able passes in only 14 attempts.

 

Houston - This was a pretty good game with 1 questionable accuracy and 2 questionable decisions.

 

Jacksonville - This was a decent game with accuracy being the main issue but he was still at an 80% catch-able rate.

 

Miami - This was Allen's 2nd worst game in terms of adjusted %.  It is the only other game in the 60% range, although at 69.3 it was very close to 70%.  This was one of his most inaccurate games (tied for 2nd) so that was more of a problem than decision making.

 

N.Y. Jets - This game was close to equal share of bad passes and questionable decisions.  His accuracy % wasn't bad at 86.2% but combine it with the decisions and he wasn't good enough in this game, with the ending being the most disappointing part.

 

Detroit - Accuracy was perfectly fine in this game.  Decision making could have been better but overall this was his 3rd best game in adjusted %.

 

New England - This was similar to the Jets game where accuracy wasn't necessarily an issue and decision making was really what affected his %.  There were also some big plays lost because of receivers or issues with the sun.

 

Miami - This was a dominating win but not necessarily one of Allen's best days in the passing game.  It is actually his worst in terms of catch-able %, which made it the 3rd worst in adjusted %.

 

Overall, I don't think accuracy is really an issue.  I do think it will improve with a better team around him.  Less pressure and more experience should make him a better decision maker which will also make him more accurate because he is playing with more confidence in himself and the team around him.

 

Well I certainly appreciate the work done by you.

 

Jives with what I've been saying: accuracy isn't a big problem for Allen. Decision making was the much bigger problem.

 

Are you still doing all the other QBs, too?

 

His numbers--while interesting--don't mean much with out at least a handful of others to compare him with.

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19 hours ago, Foxx said:

it is hard to really understand these numbers without having them in the proper context. that being, the numbers for the other top 36 QB's in the league. having the proper context could possibly give meaning to them but maybe not. until that happens ...

Having other QB's would be good for comparison but these numbers do show that Allen has the potential to get his completion % over 60%.  If his top potential last year was 74.2%, then all he needs to get to 60% is to have half of that potential to be realized this year, getting his % up to 63.5.  That potential can be realized by improved decision making and/or improved team play.  It doesn't seem to be unrealistic to believe that he can get that kind of improvement to me without improving his accuracy.  That's what I get from the numbers without comparing them to other QB's.

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well I certainly appreciate the work done by you.

 

Jives with what I've been saying: accuracy isn't a big problem for Allen. Decision making was the much bigger problem.

 

Are you still doing all the other QBs, too?

 

His numbers--while interesting--don't mean much with out at least a handful of others to compare him with.

I might do a guy like DeShaun Watson but I have to prepare for the 2019 season so I'm not sure whether or not I will have the time to do other QB's or not.  If I do, I will share the results with you guys and I will share the 2019 results too.

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Too add to my other post.  I looked at all of the poor passes that I recorded for Allen and took away all of the ones that he had while under pressure or on the move.  That resulted in subtracting an additional 10 incomplete passes.  Which means that Allen missed completely on 21 passes (6.5% of all passes) that there are no excuses for.  This adjustment gets his catch-able % up to 90.7%

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20 hours ago, Foxx said:

it is hard to really understand these numbers without having them in the proper context. that being, the numbers for the other top 36 QB's in the league. having the proper context could possibly give meaning to them but maybe not. until that happens ...

Don't care about other QBs.  How they do has no effect on what Allen does.

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24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Don't care about other QBs.  How they do has no effect on what Allen does.

not even close to anything i said.

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On 5/21/2019 at 5:23 PM, Foxx said:

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

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52 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

I entirely agree with your larger point about seeing every facet of a completed pass improving across the board. 

 

Per the bold text, I’m not sure I can buy that knowing that the potential exists to throw 10 perfectly accurate passes and not completing any. Again, that alludes to the other facets involved in completed passes, but it makes it hard for me to buy into the concept of accuracy being a subset of completion percentage because of those other aspects. 

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Thank God someone revived this post.  On an unrelated note, are there lifetime bans on this site?

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, K-9 said:

I entirely agree with your larger point about seeing every facet of a completed pass improving across the board. 

 

Per the bold text, I’m not sure I can buy that knowing that the potential exists to throw 10 perfectly accurate passes and not completing any. Again, that alludes to the other facets involved in completed passes, but it makes it hard for me to buy into the concept of accuracy being a subset of completion percentage because of those other aspects. 

Yeah I suppose I could reiterate. Accuracy is part of the equation. And it's a complicated equation. And I'll grant that accuracy has diminishing returns.. a truly inaccurate Tim Tebow type player weighs very heavily on the ultimate completion %. Let's say he hits the water cooler 60% of the time. He's making the 2 virtually the same.

 

As you look at better Quarterbacks, a significantly more accurate JA's part in the equation weighs much less as he's giving his guys chances to drop the balls at least, with occasional lapses in his throw himself some downs.

 

And take Drew Brees who hits 70% and his accuracy is so good the completion % pretty much plateaus because no matter how accurate he can be, the human error around him is going to settle at 70% which may be nearly impossible: is this is virtually nothing to do with Brees by this point. 

 

What do you think? That make sense? That's why I've contended several times JA may never be the most accurate but he's up there experiencing diminishing returns such that his other attributes can shine and make him stand out since he's not crippling inaccurate to the point that it heavily affects completion %.

 

So I'm fine with seeing him have marginal improvement in pure accuracy but believe his other complimentary skill sets become much more important in getting a productive offense of deep balls, broken plays, and diagnosing defenses to get his completion % and YPA as good as it needs for a win.

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Thank you brutha. I'm losing it here with all the talk about why being able to get the ball securely in your WR's mitts doesn't matter. Completion % encompasses EVERYTHING that requires a ball to be pitched.. and caught. And part of that equation is your quarterback hitting the WR's hands. Of course there's other factors affecting completion % other than quarterback play. It doesn't mean we can sit back with a sigh of relief after an incompletion and say "well.. at least Josh Allen ain't inaccurate!".

 

No no no. haha even if it isn't JA's fault how bout we pretend like completing passes matter and get better. Because we're playing a team sport here. I want every part of the equation involving a ball getting caught to improve, including JA's misfires, drops, blown blocking assignment throwaways. I want the ball caught and I want it to happen on more attempts than not.. especially compared to the rest of the league.

 

And how many threads does it take to learn yes completion % =/= accuracy       BUT     accuracy is a subset of completion percentage! 

 

Did you not read the OP where I laid our my criteria for what a catchable vs an uncatchable pass is?

 

As I said in the OP, if the ball hit (or was able to hit) the WR in the hands as would be considered "mitts" as you allude to, it's catchable. If the WR is ONLY able to get his fingers, but no part of the hand/palm on the ball, it was unwatchable.

 

Our WRs (and OL) blew chunks last year. Let's hope they've improved immensely this offseason.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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most of this thread is, 'unwatchable'.

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1 hour ago, Foxx said:

most of this thread is, 'unwatchable'.

 

Transplant is the M Night Shyamalan of thread starters 

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On 6/2/2019 at 7:24 AM, oldmanfan said:

Don't care about other QBs.  How they do has no effect on what Allen does.

When you’re talking about an adjusted completion percent how do you know whether it’s good if you have nothing to relate it to?

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15 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

When you’re talking about an adjusted completion percent how do you know whether it’s good if you have nothing to relate it to?

How can you compare when you have different offensive schemes with different receivers and different O lines with different protection abilities and different QBs with different levels of experience?

 

People oversimplify stats all the time around here.  Football is multivariate; any individual stat has to take a host of variants into the equation.  Allen needs to learn more about reading defenses, taking the short throw, etc. A veteran like Brees has a higher percentage because of many factors.

 

You want a stat that is truly mathematical?  If a guy like Allen throws 30 passes and completes 2 more (rather than throws 2 away) he hits the 60% overall completion rate everyone keeps claiming is so critical.

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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

How can you compare...

The same way it has always been done. As a piece of the puzzle. 

 

If if someone takes the time to figure out adjusted stats for one player then that is useless, unless there is something to compare it to.

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