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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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On 3/23/2019 at 12:54 AM, Zerovotlz said:

....How much improvement are you expecting?

 

These are all 1st season numbers.

Darnold  57.5%

L. Jackson 58.2%

M Trubisky 59.4%

D Watson 61.8%

Mayfield 63.8%

 

Allen 52.8%

 

 

Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved.

 

Trubisky  66.6%  That is a nice jump of 7%  

Watson  68.3%  That is also a nice 7% Jump.

 

Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

 

7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected.

 

If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB.  That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB.

 

Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career.  

 

You are expecting A LOT to happen here.  1.  Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters.

And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely

 

You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement.

 

 

 

 

I would take 59-62% with Allen. Lower % is ok with him because it will likely be with the longest air yard completion distance in the league.

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Thanks for the data.  From a productivity point of view, rushing yards when all WRs are blanketed should count for something too.  That's where Allen, Wentz, Watson, Trubisky, and Jackson would get a bump over their peers.

 

Allen passes the eyeball test.  He was decent last year, despite OL/WR deficiencies.  There is no doubt that Allen should be in for an even better season, with a better group of guys upfront and with improved pass catchers - especially if Foster can improve in year 2.  The thing I liked most about Allen was his ability to turn an otherwise pathetic offense into a competitive one (albeit inconsistently).

 

I'd expect Allen to get to 59%+ and also a middle of the road offense in 2019 (16th) with upside to get into the top 10.  Anything less will be a disappointment.

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4 games under 50 percent completions vs 2 games over 60 percent completions tells me Allen has problems with completion percentage, His completion percentage being right near the bottom of the league is a problem. Him having mor interceptions than to passes is a problem too. If the players have high drop rates it could be because he is throwing the ball too hard in some cases and is lacking touch. He runs well and does a good job of avoiding the rush, but he needs to improve as a passer. 

 

Edited by Superhero
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On 5/3/2019 at 10:19 PM, Superhero said:

4 games under 50 percent completions vs 2 games over 60 percent completions tells me Allen has problems with completion percentage, His completion percentage being right near the bottom of the league is a problem. Him having mor interceptions than to passes is a problem too. If the players have high drop rates it could be because he is throwing the ball too hard in some cases and is lacking touch. He runs well and does a good job of avoiding the rush, but he needs to improve as a passer. 

 

 

These are NFL Wide Receivers. 

 

Aside from me asking if you watched that 5 minute youtube drop video and sincerely thought most of those passes were dropped because the ball was thrown too hard and lacked touch, I'd just say that they're friggin NFL Wide Receivers who should be able to catch a damn ball that they get their hands on.

 

His completion percentage does need to improve, obviously, but it's more a product of the talent around him and decision making on his part than it is his actual accuracy.

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33 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Don't tell me that anybody knows what this kid will be yet:

 

http://pfref.com/tiny/cWIiH

that's pretty cool that that can be done.

Edited by Foxx

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On 5/4/2019 at 12:42 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Brown had a very high drop rate last year. Beasley should help improve the overall drop rate slightly. 

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Wicked accurate off play fakes, just like he was at Wyoming. Gives me confidence in his development. How hard was it for him to establish any timing last’s year that wasn’t off playaction? He was forced out of the pocket in about 2 seconds more often than not.

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5 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Brown had a very high drop rate last year. Beasley should help improve the overall drop rate slightly. 

 

And let's hope Zay is much better and Foster keeps improving.

 

I think cutting Clay was ultimately addition by subtraction.

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5 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Brown had a very high drop rate last year. Beasley should help improve the overall drop rate slightly. 

Look at who was throwing the ball to brown and how many of those were on the edge of catchable and that says a lot. If you look at Brown before last year he was fine. I am not worried.

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5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Look at who was throwing the ball to brown and how many of those were on the edge of catchable and that says a lot. If you look at Brown before last year he was fine. I am not worried.

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

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but Allen = inaccurate is the media narrative, scripted for announcers by producers.  He just needs to go out and win games and all of it will largely go away.  No one talks about Cam being inaccurate when they are winning.   Ignore the media.  Lets see how he does on the field this year.  

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1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

but Allen = inaccurate is the media narrative, scripted for announcers by producers.  He just needs to go out and win games and all of it will largely go away.  No one talks about Cam being inaccurate when they are winning.   Ignore the media.  Lets see how he does on the field this year.  

 

No, but that doesn't change the fact that he is still, in comparison to the other top QBs inaccurate.

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2 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

 

That was not How about Lamar Jackson? you no the RB playing QB? lol? and you made my point in itself. so yea.. lol..

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Allen is a stronger running QB than Tyrod was-which is amazing. Yes, you don't want the guy to get hurt but his running ability-especially near the goal line is a major weapon the D has to account for. He will always be more effective than his passing stats-the goal is to win.

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3 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

You may be right but could get into chicken/egg type circular argument here. If you’re going to claim Allen’s drop rate was due to his bad receivers why is Flacco’s due to his poor accuracy? 

 

I don't think Flacco at QB was the problem for Brown.

Here are Brown's 2018 splits by quarter season.  Lamar Jackson took over at QB with Game 10. (if you click on the chart, it will embiggen)

 

image.thumb.png.167ada1cf305070e07ad079b2679c3c5.png

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9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

And let's hope Zay is much better and Foster keeps improving.

I think cutting Clay was ultimately addition by subtraction.

 

I kind of picture Clay and Kelvin sitting together, in a hot tub or maybe a bar, counting their Benjamins and agreeing "process my ass, why bust it for a QB who is not Tom Brady?

 

I don't think Arizona is going to like Clay too much.  But I could be wrong.

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think Flacco at QB was the problem for Brown.

Here are Brown's 2018 splits by quarter season.  Lamar Jackson took over at QB with Game 10. (if you click on the chart, it will embiggen)

 

image.thumb.png.167ada1cf305070e07ad079b2679c3c5.png

a lot of people don't realize brown was on pace for an 1100 yd season 8 games into last season. I've been preaching that since before we even signed him. 

 

Jackson rendered him and any other perimeter player obsolete last year...… if I was marquise brown I think I may have wanted to get drafted by any of the other 31 nfl teams.

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I kind of picture Clay and Kelvin sitting together, in a hot tub or maybe a bar, counting their Benjamins and agreeing "process my ass, why bust it for a QB who is not Tom Brady?

 

I don't think Arizona is going to like Clay too much.  But I could be wrong.

in hindsight the most impactful play clay ever "made" was the drop in Miami saving us 6( maybe it was 7)draft slots and landing oliver.

Edited by Stank_Nasty

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