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transplantbillsfan

Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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Thanks for all the effort you put into this @transplantbillsfan

 

I'd like to see Josh improve dramatically in regards to his short passes, but you're right he's not as bad as people make him out to be accuracy-wise. That throwaway percentage is ungodly. Hopefully we can support Josh with an actual OL this year rather than a bunch of mannequins dressed in jerseys. 

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52 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

lol

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1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

No one is saying stats don't matter, but there is no stat that measures accuracy. That's the whole point of this thread. That his accuracy isn't as bad as people think. Not sure why so many people have a hard time with that concept?

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8 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

It's actually a different kind of eyeball test here with regard for Allen we're talking about... a more objective one than the wildly subjective "he just looks the part."

 

That said, he looks the part, too.

 

I'm surprised you're so steadfast in your pre-draft feelings on Allen.

 

How much did you know about Allen before the draft? How much did you watch of him playing?

 

The biggest reason I did such a 180 on him in the days following the draft is because I took the time I hadn't taken before the draft researching him and watching him play as much as possible. I freely admit my feelings on Allen were almost entirely formed on analytics and history. I just didn't honestly think we'd draft him, so I didn't bother really doing a deep dive.

 

Then we did, and I was furious.

 

Obviously I got over it and understand completely the trade up to 7 to get him and feel it was warranted, so much so that I wish we just gave him the reins right away back in training camp.

 

And then the season happened and Allen so often looked like Atlas holding the weight of the offense on his shoulders. And he looked like he was throwing the ball where he wanted it to go a lot more consistently than I was reading and hearing in the national media and somewhat here.

 

And that's why I did the study. I wish skeptics like you and Thurm and Cornellius would bother trying yourself to see how wildly your numbers disagree with mine, since that's what you guys seem to assume.

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47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

That said, he looks the part, too.

 

I'm surprised you're so steadfast in your pre-draft feelings on Allen.

 

Except....I’m not. I admittedly did not want Allen based on everything that I read analytics wise and what I watched. I’ve repeatedly said he played much better than I expected him to and I’m fairly optimistic about his future.

 

Quote

 

How much did you know about Allen before the draft? How much did you watch of him playing?

 

I read all the pre-draft stuff and watched as many games as I could. I did enough to form my own opinion on all the QB prospects expected to go high.

 

Quote

 

The biggest reason I did such a 180 on him in the days following the draft is because I took the time I hadn't taken before the draft researching him and watching him play as much as possible. I freely admit my feelings on Allen were almost entirely formed on analytics and history. I just didn't honestly think we'd draft him, so I didn't bother really doing a deep dive.

 

Then we did, and I was furious.

 

Obviously I got over it and understand completely the trade up to 7 to get him and feel it was warranted, so much so that I wish we just gave him the reins right away back in training camp.

 

And then the season happened and Allen so often looked like Atlas holding the weight of the offense on his shoulders. And he looked like he was throwing the ball where he wanted it to go a lot more consistently than I was reading and hearing in the national media and somewhat here.

 

And that's why I did the study. I wish skeptics like you and Thurm and Cornellius would bother trying yourself to see how wildly your numbers disagree with mine, since that's what you guys seem to assume.

 

I’m not as big of an Allen skeptic as you probably think I am. I’m also not on here harping on any accuracy issues.

Edited by Bangarang

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1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

I’m not as big of an Allen skeptic as you probably think I am. I’m also not on here harping on any accuracy issues.

 

Soooo... you just felt like chiming in with an irrelevant comment?

 

You and Foxx must be super tight.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one is saying stats don't matter, but there is no stat that measures accuracy. That's the whole point of this thread. That his accuracy isn't as bad as people think. Not sure why so many people have a hard time with that concept?

 

Equally the criticism of his accuracy pre-draft is often misunderstood. The issue I had with Josh's accuracy and I still have to an extent is not that he is inaccurate with every ball. He clearly is not. It is that the inaccuracy when it comes is wild and still, to my mind, unexplained. I know some buy the Jordan Palmer "he is overstepping" theory. I personally have looked for that and don't see it. Maybe my eye is just not trained enough that is certainly possible but to me technically his inaccurate balls still generally look no different technically to his accurate ones.

 

I compare him to someone like a Sam Darnold and I can pretty much tell you with Darnold whether the ball is going to be thrown accurately before it leaves his hand. With Allen I can't. And it is that natural inaccuracy that does concern me. It concerned me a lot on his college tape it concerns me a little less now because his legs raise the floor and take away some of the throws he would otherwise need to make more of. But it is still a concern. 

 

I am sure if any two people did the same exercise as transplant they might quibble with a few throws here and there but overall I don't dispute the value of what he has done. It just isn't really answering the questions and concerns that I and some others had. Josh has mitigated them to an extent his rookie year but they do remain. 

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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Soooo... you just felt like chiming in with an irrelevant comment?

 

You and Foxx must be super tight.

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. 🤷‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

Edited by Bangarang

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55 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. 🤷‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

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40 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

 

Must be nice. Perhaps one of these days I will endure the long plane ride and make my way out there.

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http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/48725/rg3-lamar-jackson-will-develop-into-a-more-accurate-passer

 

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- When it comes to Lamar Jackson, few have a better perspective than Robert Griffin III.

Part backup quarterback and part mentor, Griffin has watched nearly every pass that Jackson has thrown since Jackson joined the Baltimore Ravens as a first-round pick last season. Based on that, Griffin believes one of the biggest areas where Jackson will improve upon is his completion rate.

 

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. 🤷‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

it snowed on the beach last week  

 

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2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/48725/rg3-lamar-jackson-will-develop-into-a-more-accurate-passer

 

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- When it comes to Lamar Jackson, few have a better perspective than Robert Griffin III.

Part backup quarterback and part mentor, Griffin has watched nearly every pass that Jackson has thrown since Jackson joined the Baltimore Ravens as a first-round pick last season. Based on that, Griffin believes one of the biggest areas where Jackson will improve upon is his completion rate.

 

I dunno.  Jackson has a delivery that really reminds me of Tebow.  He's going to last a lot longer than Tebow because he's just so much more athletic, but I just think there's a lot of work to be done on his upper body mechanics, which are just awkward.

 

But who knows, he's been getting away with it because of his athleticism for so long.  It could last another 5-10 years.

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Equally the criticism of his accuracy pre-draft is often misunderstood. The issue I had with Josh's accuracy and I still have to an extent is not that he is inaccurate with every ball. He clearly is not. It is that the inaccuracy when it comes is wild and still, to my mind, unexplained. I know some buy the Jordan Palmer "he is overstepping" theory. I personally have looked for that and don't see it. Maybe my eye is just not trained enough that is certainly possible but to me technically his inaccurate balls still generally look no different technically to his accurate ones.

 

I compare him to someone like a Sam Darnold and I can pretty much tell you with Darnold whether the ball is going to be thrown accurately before it leaves his hand. With Allen I can't. And it is that natural inaccuracy that does concern me. It concerned me a lot on his college tape it concerns me a little less now because his legs raise the floor and take away some of the throws he would otherwise need to make more of. But it is still a concern. 

 

I am sure if any two people did the same exercise as transplant they might quibble with a few throws here and there but overall I don't dispute the value of what he has done. It just isn't really answering the questions and concerns that I and some others had. Josh has mitigated them to an extent his rookie year but they do remain. 

 

Fantastic post and observations Gunner!

 

And I think I mention this in the OP, but I'll say it here again.  Of all the 2019 rookies, Allen is definitely the one who threw the most wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws. 

 

But there really just weren't many of those, and all the other QBs had their fair share of them.

 

And after going through Wentz, I actually think Wentz had as high a percentage of those wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws as Allen.

 

 

But as I said before, does it matter if those throws happen if they're very infrequent and the vast majority of the rest of the time you're throwing a pass that can/should be caught?

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6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

You live in Hawaii?  And you are doing this haha?  Props to you.  

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EJ Manuel was not an accurate passer.

 

I don’t see that in Allen.  The stats are such a small part of the story with him.  His throws don’t have that wild quality.  Give him just a little more time and I doubt we’ll still be talking about accuracy as any kind of problem.

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29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But as I said before, does it matter if those throws happen if they're very infrequent and the vast majority of the rest of the time you're throwing a pass that can/should be caught?

 

It really depends. There is no easy answer. I have noted elswhere to me the natural inaccuracy seems to come in bunches rather than a throw here and a throw there. Josh has to reduce the occurrences of it even from where he was this past year if he wants to establish himself as a bona fide franchise QB. The next 12 months is (it goes without saying) huge for him. 

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40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It really depends. There is no easy answer. I have noted elswhere to me the natural inaccuracy seems to come in bunches rather than a throw here and a throw there. Josh has to reduce the occurrences of it even from where he was this past year if he wants to establish himself as a bona fide franchise QB. The next 12 months is (it goes without saying) huge for him. 

 

Why?

 

That sounds like a perception thing more than anything, to me.

 

This would be for a different analysis that I'm just not going to do, but if, hypothetically, my comparison between Allen and the rookies were changed to Allen and all NFL QBs and it yielded the same results--again, not saying that it would, just speaking hypothetically--finding that Allen throws pretty much the same percentage of catchable passes as all QBs across the NFL, then why would it matter that some of his misses were more wild and off target than other QBs and why would it prevent him from being a bona fide Franchise QB, despite throwing with pretty much the same accuracy?

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You live in Hawaii?  And you are doing this haha?  Props to you.  

 

Can't surf all the time.

 

My alabaster skin wouldn't be able to handle it.

 

Don't worry, I live the Hawaiian life very well  :thumbsup:

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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why?

 

That sounds like a perception thing more than anything, to me.

 

This would be for a different analysis that I'm just not going to do, but if, hypothetically, my comparison between Allen and the rookies were changed to Allen and all NFL QBs and it yielded the same results--again, not saying that it would, just speaking hypothetically--finding that Allen throws pretty much the same percentage of catchable passes as all QBs across the NFL, then why would it matter that some of his misses were more wild and off target than other QBs and why would it prevent him from being a bona fide Franchise QB, despite throwing with pretty much the same accuracy?

 

 

It matters not because the inaccurate balls are more inaccurate it matters because it is unexplained inaccuracy. I can work on Sam Darnold's base, I can build better protection for Josh Rosen, I can even try and work on Jackson's mechanics (that one is a lot tougher). But if I have a Quarterback who throws inaccurate balls for unexplained reasons it makes it difficult for me to tailor my offense to that. And again you conflate completions with accuracy. Just completing balls is not always enough and we did this debate to death with Taylor. He left too many yards on the field because his completions took away opportunities for YAC. All completions are not created equal. 

 

Josh has to reduce the instances of unexplained natural inaccuracy if he wants to be a bona fide Franchise QB. He can win some games as he is now.... we have already seen that. But his 2018 performance was only an encouraging rookie campaign. If that was year 3 or 4 in the league I'd be saying it is time to move on. 

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43 minutes ago, papazoid said:

 

 

Some of the accuracy issues still can be pinned on Allen; a league-high 23.7 percent of his attempts (excluding throwaways and spikes) were off target, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25998951/how-nfl-worst-quarterbacks-improve-2019

Show me their definition of on and off target. The article you cite says nothing about that.

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