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Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

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Just now, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Did he say Allen was “accurate” though? I don’t think so. Seems like he said Allen was “as inaccurate” as certain other quarterbacks he looked at. 

 

For one of his biggest cheerleaders throughout this thread, seems like you missed the headline. Not surprised; you’re the biggest Allen stan here.

Just stop with the nonsense.  I just said above that the kid has a ways to go.  Which I've said consistently.  The OP talked about how Allen's accuracy is similar to other young QBs.  He did so because so many claimed he was worse, based primarily on completion percentage which is a false equivalency. I understand perfectly. 

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42 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

I'm being silly?  basically this thread has devolved into 

 

A. Any data and theories that support Josh Allen, the data is valid

B. Any data and theories that suggest Josh Allen has problems passin a football are not valid....

 

And since we can't know what Allen is seeing or thinking...we can't know how accurate he is?

but, but... he's really precise.

 

:rolleyes:

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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Just stop with the nonsense.  I just said above that the kid has a ways to go.  Which I've said consistently.  The OP talked about how Allen's accuracy is similar to other young QBs.  He did so because so many claimed he was worse, based primarily on completion percentage which is a false equivalency. I understand perfectly. 

 

Everything you said about accuracy vs precision was correct. It’s foolhardy though to stare all these QBs throws and make some sort of determination of “oh yes that was intended to be thrown there and it was a little off” and mark it a minus, or vice versa. You, me, none of us know enough about the “back-end” of the plays in question to make those judgments. Clay raising his hand on one play “my bad’ing” doesn’t mean Allen didn’t also do anything wrong on that play. 

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4 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Everything you said about accuracy vs precision was correct. It’s foolhardy though to stare all these QBs throws and make some sort of determination of “oh yes that was intended to be thrown there and it was a little off” and mark it a minus, or vice versa. You, me, none of us know enough about the “back-end” of the plays in question to make those judgments. Clay raising his hand on one play “my bad’ing” doesn’t mean Allen didn’t also do anything wrong on that play. 

I agree.  That is why these simplistic "he's inaccurate" statements are lazy IMHO.  I used the Clay as an example, but without asking Allen I can't know for sure if he threw it right where he wanted.

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33 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Exactly. I appreciate the work done, but to sit here and pretend the OP didn’t make a TON of assumptions of the homer variety is completely ridiculous. Leave it to the KC fan to put things in persepctive. 

 

I know we are all desperate for a actual, real-life good QB here, but I’ve never, EVER seen such a concerted effort to whitewash this kid’s flaws. Somebody in another thread called Allen a “budding superstar” the other day. Assumingly with a straight face as he or she typed it.

I think it’s pretty funny hearing the KC fan say ‘supporting cast doesn’t matter’, myself. Nothing like Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill for putting things in perspective. 

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3 hours ago, syhuang said:

 

This is logically flaw. When you said X was the only Quarterback (I emphasize only here), this makes none of the other players on the roster qualify as "Quarterback" no matter what your definition of "Quarterback" is. Otherwise, if anyone else on the roster is considered a Quarterback, X is then not the only Quarterback. Thus, X would be the best (and the wort, and the only) Quarterback on the roster.

 

No he would be the only Quarterback on the roster and still worse than the 3rd string TE. 

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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree.  That is why these simplistic "he's inaccurate" statements are lazy IMHO.  I used the Clay as an example, but without asking Allen I can't know for sure if he threw it right where he wanted.

 

I saw enough drops in games to know the fault wasn't mostly with Josh.  That Clay play was the most egregious though as it was a game-killer.

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it’s pretty funny hearing the KC fan say ‘supporting cast doesn’t matter’, myself. Nothing like Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill for putting things in perspective. 

Our supporting cast looks vastly improved, so big things ahead! Josh also has a valuable year of game experience under his belt so that should give him a leg up on Mahomes.  

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2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

No it hasn't and now you're just being dumb.  This thread was stated by an individual who did an exhaustive analysis of several young QBs, with the data indicating the supposed accuracy issues Allen has are overblown.  We also discussed at length accuracy and precision, and discussed at length why completion percentage is not really an indicator of accuracy.

 

Go back through the thread and look at the dartboard diagrams that show what accuracy means.  You can only define accuracy by how close a given throw is to the target.  Ergo, if you don't know the exact target you can't really define how accurate a throw is.  That is basic statistics and if you want to just ignore that it's your problem.

 

An example would be a throw over the middle Allen made to Clay.  Clay had to reach for the ball and it was incomplete.  The uneducated would say Allen was inaccurate.  But Clay immediately got up and gestured it was on him, I.e. Allen put it right where he wanted it but Clay didn't get to the spot.

 

So again, do you want to have a serious discussion, or be silly?  Either way I'll be watching UB so it'll be a while.  Maybe you can spend time on your beloved Chiefs site for a while.

 

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it’s pretty funny hearing the KC fan say ‘supporting cast doesn’t matter’, myself. Nothing like Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill for putting things in perspective. 

 

I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here.  I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards.  

 

With the SAME supporting cast.  Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards.  The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017.  The offense was the same.  The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER.  

 

I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes.

 

And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away.  OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage.  Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year... 

 

He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018. 

 

Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.  

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3 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here.  I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards.  

 

With the SAME supporting cast.  Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards.  The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017.  The offense was the same.  The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER.  

 

I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes.

 

And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away.  OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage.  Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year... 

 

He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018. 

 

Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.  

 

Most people would agree that Mahomes is a better QB than Smith, but you realize that the Chefs added Sammy Watkins prior to the 2018 season, right?  With him and without him was almost a TD difference in scoring.

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17 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

 

 

I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here.  I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards.  

 

With the SAME supporting cast.  Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards.  The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017.  The offense was the same.  The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER.  

 

I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes.

 

And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away.  OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage.  Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year... 

 

He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018. 

 

Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.  

 

Smith had his best year, by a longshot, with those guys and that system. Nobody is arguing that Mahomes isn't a better QB than Smith, but it is very obvious that the offensive cast in KC is going to substantially improve QB performance over the mean.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No he would be the only Quarterback on the roster and still worse than the 3rd string TE. 

 

Maybe, but he would still be the best Quarterback on the roster since he is the only Quarterback consider a 3rd string TE is not a Quarterback. If a 3rd string TE is considered a Quarterback, then the statement of "only" Quarterback is wrong.

 

Logic 101

Edited by syhuang

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10 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

 

Of course Allen can improve his accuracy. Sounds like that's one of the big things he's been working on this offseason.

 

But Allen simply doesn't have to improve his accuracy to any significantly greater degree than the 4 rookies this year or than Deshaun Watson did after his rookie year or than Carson Wentz did after his rookie year.

 

This almost comical criticism of Allen's accuracy that's practically turned itself into a Meme is unwarranted.

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Posted (edited)
On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

Out of curiosity I wanted to try this formula out with other quarterbacks. I've found slightly different data, and am still looking for more but I'm having a hard time matching your math when back testing.

 

1. Catchable pass data: I match all but Lamar and Rosen.. Lamar Jackson has 136/170 catchable passes, for 95.8%. Rosen has an absurd 86/265 catchable rounding out to 35.5%. I goal seeked to checked for typos but the %s don't match the data

 

2. Catchable pass data excludes uncatchable passes from Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz. So with 0s I match your %s for all but Rosen. But they definitely don't have 0 uncatchable passes

 

3. I get 393 attempts for Rosen

 

4. Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz are missing uncatchables, so their totals don't add up to pass attempts at all. I can assume the difference between adding up JA, Lamar, and Darnold's stats should add up to pass attempts considering interceptable passes and uncatchables as mutually inclusive.. but Lamar for example doesn't add up either. Darnold and Allen otherwise clearly show all interceptable passes are also counted as uncatchable which makes sense.

 

That said uncatchables don't have an affect on the %s

 

Otherwise I can get pretty close with my set of data. I just can't get close to throwaways for the life of me..

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

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3 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

 

 

I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here.  I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards.  

 

With the SAME supporting cast.  Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards.  The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017.  The offense was the same.  The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER.  

 

I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes.

 

And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away.  OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage.  Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year... 

 

He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018. 

 

Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.  

Yes, and I'm sure there were no other variables involved at all, and I'm even more sure you are capable of knowing that.  Everything was exactly the same except for the QBs throwing the ball.

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1 hour ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

 

Out of curiosity I wanted to try this formula out with other quarterbacks. I've found slightly different data, and am still looking for more but I'm having a hard time matching your math when back testing.

 

1. Catchable pass data: I match all but Lamar and Rosen.. Lamar Jackson has 136/170 catchable passes, for 95.8%. Rosen has an absurd 86/265 catchable rounding out to 35.5%. I goal seeked to checked for typos but the %s don't match the data

 

2. Catchable pass data excludes uncatchable passes from Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz. So with 0s I match your %s for all but Rosen. But they definitely don't have 0 uncatchable passes

 

3. I get 393 attempts for Rosen

 

4. Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz are missing uncatchables, so their totals don't add up to pass attempts at all. I can assume the difference between adding up JA, Lamar, and Darnold's stats should add up to pass attempts considering interceptable passes and uncatchables as mutually inclusive.. but Lamar for example doesn't add up either. Darnold and Allen otherwise clearly show all interceptable passes are also counted as uncatchable which makes sense.

 

That said uncatchables don't have an affect on the %s

 

Otherwise I can get pretty close with my set of data. I just can't get close to throwaways for the life of me..

 

How far did these "catchable" passes go in the air.  We endured three years of twisted stats from our own QB.  Lamont Jackson is, by far, one of the worst starters in the entire league.  Just as Tyrod was.  But his stats were purty, too.

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7 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Exactly. I appreciate the work done, but to sit here and pretend the OP didn’t make a TON of assumptions of the homer variety is completely ridiculous. Leave it to the KC fan to put things in persepctive. 

 

I know we are all desperate for a actual, real-life good QB here, but I’ve never, EVER seen such a concerted effort to whitewash this kid’s flaws. Somebody in another thread called Allen a “budding superstar” the other day. Assumingly with a straight face as he or she typed it.

 

What kinds of homer assumptions do you think I made?

 

Did you read my pretty simple methodology in the OP?

 

Did you read any of the OP?

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2 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

 

Out of curiosity I wanted to try this formula out with other quarterbacks. I've found slightly different data, and am still looking for more but I'm having a hard time matching your math when back testing.

 

1. Catchable pass data: I match all but Lamar and Rosen.. Lamar Jackson has 136/170 catchable passes, for 95.8%. Rosen has an absurd 86/265 catchable rounding out to 35.5%. I goal seeked to checked for typos but the %s don't match the data

 

2. Catchable pass data excludes uncatchable passes from Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz. So with 0s I match your %s for all but Rosen. But they definitely don't have 0 uncatchable passes

 

3. I get 393 attempts for Rosen

 

4. Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz are missing uncatchables, so their totals don't add up to pass attempts at all. I can assume the difference between adding up JA, Lamar, and Darnold's stats should add up to pass attempts considering interceptable passes and uncatchables as mutually inclusive.. but Lamar for example doesn't add up either. Darnold and Allen otherwise clearly show all interceptable passes are also counted as uncatchable which makes sense.

 

That said uncatchables don't have an affect on the %s

 

Otherwise I can get pretty close with my set of data. I just can't get close to throwaways for the life of me..

 

Interceptable passes are NOT part of the total attempt count. Sometimes a catchable passes is also Interceptable. Sometimes a tipped/batted pass is also Interceptable.

 

Thank you for cross checking the numbers.

 

I just added the uncatchable passes in the list--which was simple mathematically--but now I will go to my notebook where I have the numbers to check on Rosen and Jackson specifically. I may have just typed something in wrong. It was a lot of work and a long post.

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....How much improvement are you expecting?

 

These are all 1st season numbers.

Darnold  57.5%

L. Jackson 58.2%

M Trubisky 59.4%

D Watson 61.8%

Mayfield 63.8%

 

Allen 52.8%

 

 

Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved.

 

Trubisky  66.6%  That is a nice jump of 7%  

Watson  68.3%  That is also a nice 7% Jump.

 

Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.

 

7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected.

 

If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB.  That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB.

 

Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career.  

 

You are expecting A LOT to happen here.  1.  Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters.

And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely

 

You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement.

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

What kinds of homer assumptions do you think I made?

 

Did you read my pretty simple methodology in the OP?

 

Did you read any of the OP?

 

Read the whole thing yes and while I said before all the work is impressive and appreciated. But you yourself stated that what is “catchable” vs “uncatchable” was based on your interpretation of the play alone. That’s (up to a point) subjective. And you pretty clearly are out to boost Allen in people’s eyes and downplay “outcome” oriented QB statistics, like comp% or QBR. That’s fine, too - PFF does basically the same thing in their metrics. But coming from a Bills fan, and an Allen fan to boot, you can’t fault people for questioning your analysis. 

 

Maybe you really don’t have an agenda, only you can answer if you do or don’t. I just see so much from so many here trying to explain away any little shortcoming that Allen may still possess it’s just a bit much. Hey I love him, you love him we all love him. I hope he turns out every bit as good as Mahomes. I don’t see him approaching anywhere near that...yet.

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3 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

 

Out of curiosity I wanted to try this formula out with other quarterbacks. I've found slightly different data, and am still looking for more but I'm having a hard time matching your math when back testing.

 

1. Catchable pass data: I match all but Lamar and Rosen.. Lamar Jackson has 136/170 catchable passes, for 95.8%. Rosen has an absurd 86/265 catchable rounding out to 35.5%. I goal seeked to checked for typos but the %s don't match the data

 

2. Catchable pass data excludes uncatchable passes from Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz. So with 0s I match your %s for all but Rosen. But they definitely don't have 0 uncatchable passes

 

3. I get 393 attempts for Rosen

 

4. Rosen, Watson, Mayfield, and Wentz are missing uncatchables, so their totals don't add up to pass attempts at all. I can assume the difference between adding up JA, Lamar, and Darnold's stats should add up to pass attempts considering interceptable passes and uncatchables as mutually inclusive.. but Lamar for example doesn't add up either. Darnold and Allen otherwise clearly show all interceptable passes are also counted as uncatchable which makes sense.

 

That said uncatchables don't have an affect on the %s

 

Otherwise I can get pretty close with my set of data. I just can't get close to throwaways for the life of me..

 

My breakdown of the numbers for each QB have been fixed in the OP. The %s were put in correctly from the beginning. I just didn't transfer Rosen and Jackson in correctly in terms of numbers. I stopped typing in Uncatchable passes at some point because I thought it was mathematically obvious.

 

And if you're wondering why Jackson's total attempts are 199, it's because I counted his playoff game.

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23 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Read the whole thing yes and while I said before all the work is impressive and appreciated. But you yourself stated that what is “catchable” vs “uncatchable” was based on your interpretation of the play alone. That’s (up to a point) subjective. And you pretty clearly are out to boost Allen in people’s eyes and downplay “outcome” oriented QB statistics, like comp% or QBR. That’s fine, too - PFF does basically the same thing in their metrics. But coming from a Bills fan, and an Allen fan to boot, you can’t fault people for questioning your analysis. 

 

Maybe you really don’t have an agenda, only you can answer if you do or don’t. I just see so much from so many here trying to explain away any little shortcoming that Allen may still possess it’s just a bit much. Hey I love him, you love him we all love him. I hope he turns out every bit as good as Mahomes. I don’t see him approaching anywhere near that...yet.

 

There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays.

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Catchable 

 

 

WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand

 

=

 

Uncatchable 

 

 

About the only interpretation of plays I had to do were for back shoulder throws, which were often obvious.

 

And I understand why you wouldn't believe this, but I truly and conscientiously tried to arrive, if anything, on the side of uncatchable with Allen. 

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Posted (edited)

I reiterate my position from earlier in the thread. I applaud the effort by OP, but even if you assume away any pre-conceived bias, he/she isn't working with the same technology that PFF and ESPN / Elias Sports Bureau is using. Those guys all said Allen was the least accurate QB in the NFL last year based on a dart board approach, not completion percentage. ESB has been the leading sports stats provider for over 100 years. If you're arguing against them, you have a serious uphill battle ahead of you. 

 

All of that said, it sure felt to me like Josh improved post injury. He still has accuracy issues, and precision issues. I like that we went after WRs in FA who can get open. If they're open, Allen doesn't have to worry as much about precision. Just as important, it seemed like his decision making and feel for the game improved. There's a lot to be excited about. On to year two.

Edited by VW82
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6 hours ago, syhuang said:

 

Maybe, but he would still be the best Quarterback on the roster since he is the only Quarterback consider a 3rd string TE is not a Quarterback. If a 3rd string TE is considered a Quarterback, then the statement of "only" Quarterback is wrong.

 

Logic 101

 

Teams have to list people by position. That is a requirement of the league. He could have been the only person listed as a Quarterback on the roster and still not been the best actual Quarterback. 

 

Logic 102. 

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