Barnwell: Progress Report on 2018 1st Round QBs

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but that was a bad throw to Clay. Objectively so.

 

I know we're on opposite ends of that play, but I still say that 100 NFL pass-catchers out of 100 will say that they expect to catch that ball with the game on the line, while maybe 5 NFL QBs (including Allen) will say that they would be able to avoid the pressure and make that throw.

 

For the record: I don't expect to change your mind (nor do I presume that it needs to be changed)

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That traveled what, 40 yards in the air after being chased to the sideline and thrown off balance? Yeah. I'll continue to blame Charles Clay on that one.

 

He made a great play up to that point. Regardless, it was a poor, inaccurate throw. Christ, it wasn't even *remotely* a spiral. I can't believe I'm arguing about this.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

He made a great play up to that point. Regardless, it was a poor, inaccurate throw. Christ, it wasn't even *remotely* a spiral. I can't believe I'm arguing about this.

 

Sorry, but if you're right, you wouldn't be.

 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I know we're on opposite ends of that play, but I still say that 100 NFL pass-catchers out of 100 will say that they expect to catch that ball with the game on the line, while maybe 5 NFL QBs (including Allen) will say that they would be able to avoid the pressure and make that throw.

 

For the record: I don't expect to change your mind (nor do I presume that it needs to be changed)

Agreed about the avoidance of pressure; it was impressive. You also know that I think that Zay Jones should have probably held onto that ball he was interfered with on. Upper tier receivers hold onto those. That was more catchable (even with the mild PI) than the Clay one.

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't understand what you are saying or what the percentage refers to.

 

How is that possible ? 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Sorry, but if you're right, you wouldn't be.

 

I'm not arguing because you're not presenting an argument (unlike Bandit).

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

 

How is that possible ? 

How is what possible? Can you please explain instead of being cryptic?

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That was more catchable (even with the mild PI) than the Clay one.

 

Yikes.     Thats a spicy one 

 

Last year you went to war for the 56 yard kid but not want to rail against the rookie ? 

 

These are just turrrrrrrrble 

Edited December 13, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I'm not arguing because you're not presenting an argument (unlike Bandit).

 

My argment is pretty simple. It was a catchable ball. Had Clay ANY catching talent and situational awareness, it would have been caught, spiral or no.

 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

My argment is pretty simple. It was a catchable ball. Had Clay ANY catching talent and situational awareness, it would have been caught, spiral or no.

 

We can agree to disagree. I think it would have qualified as a circus catch: doable for some but not most, especially TEs known for their blocking.  Charles Clay, a decent TE, is not a flexible, high-talent leaper like, say, Antonio Brown. Gronk would not have made that catch, I don't think.

Edited December 13, 2018 by dave mcbride

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

52 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Barnwell is not clickbait. He’s posted more meaningful NFL pieces in the last 3 years than Peter King has in the last 30. Keep homering it up tho makes you look smart.

 

Too bad this couldn't have been one of them.  

 

Again, if you can't agree that Allen has at least gotten better, then you are wrong.  I was out on the article when he didn't appreciate that the difference in attempted air yards of 11.4 and 9.0 isn't a significant amount.  

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Too bad this couldn't have been one of them.  

 

Again, if you can't agree that Allen has at least gotten better, then you are wrong.  I was out on the article when he didn't appreciate that the difference in attempted air yards of 11.4 and 9.0 isn't a significant amount.  

He did clarify that he only focused on the last two games of each of the QBs. He was upfront about that. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

He did clarify that he only focused on the last two games of each of the QBs. He was upfront about that. 

 

So, he's judging a season's body of work on two games.

 

Must be an "analytics" thing.

 

[Chuck Wagon]

I always expect the worst from Barnwell on the Bills and he never disappoints.

 

So basically, Allen 9 GAMES into his career is a slightly worse version of what Tyrod was 7 YEARS into his career but everything is trash.

[Teddy KGB]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think it would have qualified as a circus catch 

 

Worst post of the year      Hands down 

 

ive never seen a “circus catch”by a wide open receiver whose feet were glued to the ground for some reason 

 

Can you cite similar circus catches for reference? 

 

Are you sure this isn’t about your torrid love for the Browns backup as well ?   Seems to be clouding your views.  

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He did clarify that he only focused on the last two games of each of the QBs. He was upfront about that. 

 

I thought he said he looked at the previous games and then "went back and looked at the last two again"

 

If he didn't, how can he say Allen hasn't progressed? 

 

I'd go back and read the article again, but I hate giving articles like this more clicks than it deserves.  

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

So, he's judging a season's body of work on two games.

 

Must be an "analytics" thing.

 

No, that's not what he said. He said he watched every qb play of their last two games and factored that into an overall analysis of their entire seasons so far. Barnwell is about as good as it gets even if I don't always agree with him. My hunch is that if he said great things about Allen, no one here would be criticizing him. As I said above, I like Allen and the sky is the limit with him, but he is at the moment very error prone -- too many inaccurate passes and a lot of INTs (although not an inordinate # for a rookie). He needs a better cast, but he needs to get better too. Barnwell isn't wrong to say this, and he emphatically indicates that he's not declaring anyone a bust. 

Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I thought he said he looked at the previous games and then "went back and looked at the last two again"

 

If he didn't, how can he say Allen hasn't progressed? 

 

I'd go back and read the article again, but I hate giving articles like this more clicks than it deserves.  

I said "focused." He said he watched every play of the last two games so that he could flesh out an overall assessment. He's not really glowing about any of these guys except Mayfield, and he is correct to be glowing about him. He's good. 

[oldmanfan]

If Barnwell had gone back and looked at his first couple games and then compared them to the last two his article would have, or should have, read differently.  Allen is a work in progress, and some of what he says is valid.  Like better decision making.  But to say he's worse version than Taylor?  Silly.  Taylor's issue is he wouldn't try to let his receivers makes plays, and Allen's is that at times he's too aggressive.  I said it when Taylor got traded and Allen started playing:  the same people that were critical of Taylor for not taking chances and throwing the occasional pick will be the same ones criticizing Allen for taking a chance and throwing a pick.  And here we are.

 

It's also a bit silly to give Darnold a pass for his O line and not mention it with the Allen critique.  It's also a bit silly to just critique and not mention some of the really good throws he's made like some to Foster.  

 

One last thing.  Clay has to catch that pass.  He gets two hands on it in the end zone, he has to catch that pass.  Plus what ever happened to the diea of working back to your QB when he's in trouble?

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Worst post of the year      Hands down 

 

ive never seen a “circus catch”by a wide open receiver whose feet were glued to the ground for some reason 

 

can you cite similar circus catch for reference? 

Exaggeration is a weapon of the weak, and I advise against it. I disagree with you, that's all. Are you suggesting that it was a remotely accurate pass?

[GoBills808]

Remember Barnwell was a big Taylor guy. These guys are prisoners of their original takes.

 

You can't honestly complain about Allen's INTs completion percentage and then immediately say Darnold has a bad offensive line. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No, that's not what he said. He said he watched every qb play of their last two games and factored that into an overall analysis of their entire seasons so far. Barnwell is about as good as it gets even if I don't always agree with him. My hunch is that if he said great things about Allen, no one here would be criticizing him. As I said above, I like Allen and the sky is the limit with him, but he is at the moment very error prone -- too many inaccurate passes and a lot of INTs (although not an inordinate # for a rookie). He needs a better cast, but he needs to get better too. Barnwell isn't wrong to say this, and he emphatically indicates that he's not declaring anyone a bust. 

I said "focused." He said he watched every play of the last two games so that he could flesh out an overall assessment. He's not really glowing about any of these guys except Mayfield, and he is correct to be glowing about him. He's good. 

 

You just had to make me go and look....

 

The quote is: 

"I've been watching these quarterbacks all year, but in writing this, I rewatched each of their past two starts closely to get a sense of how they're progressing."

 

From that, I think my criticism is fair.  Your characterization is not unreasonable.  All the same, if the point is to analyze how they are "progressing" I don't think it is fair to do that based on the last two games with only a cursory analysis of the first several games.   

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

If Barnwell had gone back and looked at his first couple games and then compared them to the last two his article would have, or should have, read differently.  Allen is a work in progress, and some of what he says is valid.  Like better decision making.  But to say he's worse version than Taylor?  Silly.  Taylor's issue is he wouldn't try to let his receivers makes plays, and Allen's is that at times he's too aggressive.  I said it when Taylor got traded and Allen started playing:  the same people that were critical of Taylor for not taking chances and throwing the occasional pick will be the same ones criticizing Allen for taking a chance and throwing a pick.  And here we are.

 

It's also a bit silly to give Darnold a pass for his O line and not mention it with the Allen critique.  It's also a bit silly to just critique and not mention some of the really good throws he's made like some to Foster.  

 

One last thing.  Clay has to catch that pass.  He gets two hands on it in the end zone, he has to catch that pass.  Plus what ever happened to the diea of working back to your QB when he's in trouble?

Just to play devil's advocate (I've said too much already), working back to someone like Allen given his arm strength is not always the best choice. We're not talking about an arm like Matt Ryan's here. He overthrows people a LOT. I wouldn't blame Clay for that. He was wide open in the middle of the EZ and Allen missed him.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Exaggeration is a weapon of the weak, and I advise against it. I disagree with you, that's all. Are you suggesting that it was a remotely accurate pass?

 

it was accurate enough that probably 80% of WIDE OPEN NFL RECEIVERS would have made it. But, Clay is not NFL-caliber.  Not as a receiver anyway.

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Exaggeration is a weapon of the weak, and I advise against it. I disagree with you, that's all. Are you suggesting that it was a remotely accurate pass?

 

Interesting statement coming from someone who claims that clay would have needed to make a circus catch.

 

The pass was accurate enough and should have been caught. Could the pass have been better? Sure, and I dont think anyone is disputing that

[dave mcbride]

Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You just had to make me go and look....

 

The quote is: 

"I've been watching these quarterbacks all year, but in writing this, I rewatched each of their past two starts closely to get a sense of how they're progressing."

 

From that, I think my criticism is fair.  Your characterization is not unreasonable.  All the same, if the point is to analyze how they are "progressing" I don't think it is fair to do that based on the last two games with only a cursory analysis of the first several games.   

That is a fair point, although I'd counter that slightly by saying that his best game by far in every area was against Minnesota. It was also on the road and against an upper tier defense too. 

[LSHMEAB]

52 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Nobody knows if Allen is going to be a franchise QB.

 

On the one hand, anyone who says he's so bad that it's just not going to happen is either delusional or just not watching.   Allen has proven his ability to make big time NFL throws.  The question is: can he do it consistently?  And that depends on his biomechanics, ability to read defenses & find receivers, the talent around him, and all that.   NFL QBs sometimes get better and sometimes they don't.  There's no foolproof way of prognosticating this.  

 

On the other hand, those who think it's certain that Allen will be franchise QB are also delusional.  There's just no guarantee.  

 

In the end, one camp will be proven right and we'll hear the gloating told-you-so's.   But any certainty at either end of the spectrum at this point is misguided.  

 

As I fan I see positive signs.  I see why Beane drafted the kid and hope for the best.  I don't care at all what Barnwell thinks or writes.  

 

 

Best post I've seen on the subject.

 

I was in the Allen is a sure bust camp, but his play has moved me to CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.

 

I don't know if he's ever going to live up to his talent, but he's certainly not going to be a Jake Locker like bust. The kid is too talented and works too hard. He's going to be here for awhile. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Interesting statement coming from someone who claims that clay would have needed to make a circus catch.

 

The pass was accurate enough and should have been caught. Could the pass have been better? Sure, and I dont think anyone is disputing that

I strongly disagree that it was accurate enough given where Clay was in the EZ (right where he should have been given the QB's arm strength; plus he was wide open), where it landed, and the rotation of the pass. (I've said so much about this that I worry that it'll be written on my tombstone!) Look: he missed two wide open receivers in the end zone that game. Did they lose because of that? No, but the opposing QB made three accurate throws to the EZ on his three tries. 

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I strongly disagree that it was accurate enough given where Clay was in the EZ (right where he should have been given the QB's arm strength; plus he was wide open), where it landed, and the rotation of the pass. (I've said so much about this that I worry that it'll be written on my tombstone!) Look: he missed two wide open receivers in the end zone that game. Did they lose because of that? No, but the opposing QB made three accurate throws to the EZ on his three tries. 

 

Where did the pass hit Clay?

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Best post I've seen on the subject.

 

I was in the Allen is a sure bust camp, but his play has moved me to CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.

 

I don't know if he's ever going to live up to his talent, but he's certainly not going to be a Jake Locker like bust. The kid is too talented and works too hard. He's going to be here for awhile. 

I agree with this 100 percent. The worst case scenario isn't Locker but (at least in terms of production) Jeff George - who actually had some very good seasons. Allen has a better attitude, of course. What I'm saying is that talent will get him places that guys like Locker and David Carr couldn't get to.

[PIZ]

Yes, Mr. Barnwell, I agree.  Instead of making huge yardage and risk getting tackled, Allen should just stay put in the pocket and get smashed by DEs and DTs because the OL sucks.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Why is it biased opinion and why are the arguments bad? Is Josh Allen better than what the performance output says he is so far? Don't get me wrong - I like him and think the sky is the limit. But he's simply not accurate enough at present (watch other good qbs and you'll see what I mean), and if he doesn't fix that, he's going to struggle to succeed. I can't believe people don't see this. Only Bills homer fans would zero in on Charles Clay alone for that throw-and-catch failure at the end of the Miami game. It was a straight-up inaccurate wounded duck rotating like a helicopter. 

Your posts are generally cogent, but I think you are the one who is being unduly reactive here. I didn't actually make any claim about Allen. I think Barnwell's judgment, especially in the context of his overall evaluation of the rookie qbs, demonstrates an agenda. He's simply not just and balanced in his interpretation. I don't believe he's applying the same criteria to all the qbs. I do think Allen has a good chance to be very good. He needs to develop and correct numerous mistakes. One can disagree with Barnwell, be optimistic about Josh Allen, and also see he is a raw rookie whose potential is yet to be realized. If the offensive personnel is upgraded, I believe he likely succeeds. Belief, of course, is not certitude.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Where did the pass hit Clay?

In his arm feet.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Where did the pass hit Clay?

I've had this argument before. Just because a pass hits a receiver in the hands doesn't mean it's very catchable. There was a knock-down drag-out argument years back when a Taylor pass sailed off the top of Watkins' fingertips when the Bills were down by one score against the Pats and on their last possession, and the tendency was to blame Watkins because "it hit him in the hands." It was essentially uncatchable, however, and an errant throw. 

 

I will agree that Antonio Brown makes that catch. Clay is a serviceable TE -- not horrible by any stretch -- but he's not on this team to make catches like that. Hardly any TEs in the NFL make that catch given the starting point that Clay was at.

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Your posts are generally cogent, but I think you are the one who is being unduly reactive here. I didn't actually make any claim about Allen. I think Barnwell's judgment, especially in the context of his overall evaluation of the rookie qbs, demonstrates an agenda. He's simply not just and balanced in his interpretation. I don't believe he's applying the same criteria to all the qbs. I do think Allen has a good chance to be very good. He needs to develop and correct numerous mistakes. One can disagree with Barnwell, be optimistic about Josh Allen, and also see he is a raw rookie whose potential is yet to be realized. If the offensive personnel is upgraded, I believe he likely succeeds. Belief, of course, is not certitude.

I like Barnwell but don't always agree with him. I have a higher opinion of Allen than he does, but I see where he's coming from.

[Bob in NoCal]

56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is hilarious and it’s why our country is so divided.  If someone doesn’t have the opinion I have, they are wrong!!!!

 

there is plenty of stuff he writes I don’t agree with but he makes good uses of analytics and always has decent reasoning for his points.  But to think everyone who doesn’t say Allen or the Bills are awesome is out to get us makes us look a bit crazy.  Allen has some work to do.  It’s also funny that you ignore him posting clips of Allen embarrassing Kiko or stating that he doesn’t have good receivers.  Stop being so sensitive.

 I am not here to argue with you or anyone else, because I believe it serves no purpose. I truly do feel that you are crusading somewhat; masquerading under the claim of objectivity.   No further comment from this quarter, please consider what I have said. 

( And I totally agree that Allen has some work to do.)

[Teddy KGB]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Exaggeration is a weapon of the weak, and I advise against it. 

 

Agree.   It’s why you should refrain from calling a wide open bum who can’t track a ball a circus catch 

10 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

it was accurate enough that probably 80% of WIDE OPEN NFL RECEIVERS would have made it. But, Clay is not NFL-caliber.  Not as a receiver anyway.

 

97% whose the last one to make a drop

like that ?    Stevie Johnson ? 

[gjv001]

I don't begrudge any sports writer making a living by analyzing players and offering their opinion. But this so-called football expert analysis of Allen borders on Fake News.

[HappyDays]

I dont care if he has a poor opinion of Allen. That's fine. But really, comparing him to Tyrod Taylor? Is every mobile QB Tyrod Taylor? That take is so lazy. They play completely different styles of QB.

[Teddy KGB]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

I dont care if he has a poor opinion of Allen. That's fine. But really, comparing him to Tyrod Taylor? Is every mobile QB Tyrod Taylor? That take is so lazy. They play completely different styles of QB.

 

Hes a cot guy just like circus catch.  

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

I dont care if he has a poor opinion of Allen. That's fine. But really, comparing him to Tyrod Taylor? Is every mobile QB Tyrod Taylor? That take is so lazy. They play completely different styles of QB.

 

I think, and I could be wrong here, that he's probably comparing Allen to Tyrod because Allen is replacing Tyrod. The fact that he happens to be running more often than Tyrod ever did only makes the comparison more obvious. There aren't many QBs in the league that run a significant enough amount to really compare Allen to and it just so happens that one of them is the guy that he's replaced.

[nedboy7]

4 minutes ago, Bob in NoCal said:

 I am not here to argue with you or anyone else, because I believe it serves no purpose. I truly do feel that you are crusading somewhat; masquerading under the claim of objectivity.   No further comment from this quarter, please consider what I have said. 

( And I totally agree that Allen has some work to do.)

 

He is not doing any of that. He is being reasonable. Which irritates the fanboys. 

[MikeSpeed]

His criticisms of Allen did not bother me. What did bother me was he compares the Bills QB with last years QB (Taylor) , but yet doesn't compare any of the other QB to any teams former QB. Heck Taylor is still on the Browns and he didn't compare Mayfield to him? He doesn't compare Jackson to Flacco, Darnold to McCown, or Rosen to Bradford.

What is the fascination with media members wanting the Bills to retain Taylor? Do they want us to always be bad and never improve?