Zay Jones & Robert Foster - Advanced Metrics

[DCOrange]

I did this last year to see how Zay Jones compared to his peers as a rookie and thought that it would be fun to update it for this year. I've also analyzed Robert Foster compared to some of his peers to see how he stacks up (albeit on a small sample size at this point in his career). PlayerProfiler.com is a very cool website, and one of the many things that they do (and what I'm focusing on here) is that they strip out the passes that they believe are "uncatchable", which allows us to see how WRs have performed strictly when they have an actual chance at catching the ball.

 

The results, particularly with Foster, are pretty cool IMO.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/12/12/18137664/zay-jones-amp-robert-foster-advanced-metrics

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I did this last year to see how Zay Jones compared to his peers as a rookie and thought that it would be fun to update it for this year. I've also analyzed Robert Foster compared to some of his peers to see how he stacks up (albeit on a small sample size at this point in his career). PlayerProfiler.com is a very cool website, and one of the many things that they do (and what I'm focusing on here) is that they strip out the passes that they believe are "uncatchable", which allows us to see how WRs have performed strictly when they have an actual chance at catching the ball.

 

The results, particularly with Foster, are pretty cool IMO.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/12/12/18137664/zay-jones-amp-robert-foster-advanced-metrics

Good stuff. Matches up with the eye test too. Foster seems like a more talented receiver to me.

[Watkins90]

I think it would have been better if the author had compared the two with the 15 guys PFF ranks ahead of each, rather than the guys that were chosen. I mean trying to compare Zay Jones and Antonio Brown and Hopkins is fools gold in my opinion. 

[Magox]

Robert Foster without doubt has a much higher ceiling than Zay Jones.

 

Zay is a more polished route runner but Foster has much more speed and separation capabilities.   They both have a future in the league.

 

I'm beginning to change my views on Foster, if he can continue to progress the way we've seen and he commits to his route running and continues to demonstrate good hands then he actually could end up being a very productive receiver in this league.

[billsfan1959]

I like both Jones and Foster. I believe both would continue to improve with more defined roles and legitimate #1 and #2 receivers on this team.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

If they strip out and don't count balls they consider uncatchable, why don't the catch rate % and drop rate % add up to 100%?

 

Is the unaccounted for % a measure of how often the pass was neither droppped not caught, but knocked away by the defender after it hit the receiver's hands as the receiver was trying to "secure" the catch?  If so, it would be interesting to see that number separately listed for each receiver.

 

Not sure what else the unaccounted for % could possibly be. 

[Antonio]

I´m corious as to how did you chose wich players you were going to compare Zay and Foster.

[OutOfBubbleGum]

Jones has a future in this league provided he doesn't jump out of any high rise apartment windows. 

 

Fosters ceiling is high enough he can jump up and into that high rise apartment window.

 

Seriously they should both do fine but I think Foster will be the better of the two.

 

[Antonio]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

Robert Foster without doubt has a much higher ceiling than Zay Jones.

 

Zay is a more polished route runner but Foster has much more speed and separation capabilities.   They both have a future in the league.

 

I'm beginning to change my views on Foster, if he can continue to progress the way we've seen and he commits to his route running and continues to demonstrate good hands then he actually could end up being a very productive receiver in this league.

 

I agree, and I would like us to try and use Foster like KC uses Hill or SF uses Goodwin. They both run more than just lfy or go routs.

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

I think it would have been better if the author had compared the two with the 15 guys PFF ranks ahead of each, rather than the guys that were chosen. I mean trying to compare Zay Jones and Antonio Brown and Hopkins is fools gold in my opinion. 

 

The reason I went in the direction that I did is because if I simply took the 15 guys around Zay in terms of PFF ranks:

1. We'd be comparing him to basically the worst WRs in the NFL, and I'm not sure there's all that much value in that

2. We'd be comparing guys that are purely deep threats or purely screen-kinda guys to Zay, who is performing a completely different role.

I think comparing Foster to other deep threats and comparing Zay to other all-around WRs makes more sense personally, but to each their own.

3 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

If they strip out and don't count balls they consider uncatchable, why don't the catch rate % and drop rate % add up to 100%?

 

Is the unaccounted for % a measure of how often the pass was neither droppped not caught, but knocked away by the defender after it hit the receiver's hands as the receiver was trying to "secure" the catch?  If so, it would be interesting to see that number separately listed for each receiver.

 

Not sure what else the unaccounted for % could possibly be. 

 

Yeah, not every pass is caught or dropped. A pass that's heavily contested and isn't caught would be deemed catchable but wouldn't count as a drop.

[Antonio]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

The reason I went in the direction that I did is because if I simply took the 15 guys around Zay in terms of PFF ranks:

1. We'd be comparing him to basically the worst WRs in the NFL, and I'm not sure there's all that much value in that

2. We'd be comparing guys that are purely deep threats or purely screen-kinda guys to Zay, who is performing a completely different role.

I think comparing Foster to other deep threats and comparing Zay to other all-around WRs makes more sense personally, but to each their own.

 

Yeah, not every pass is caught or dropped. A pass that's heavily contested and isn't caught would be deemed catchable but wouldn't count as a drop.

 

I think a good comparison or a more fair comparison would be to do so against their own Draft Class. 

 

I still find it very interesteing. Thanks!

[DCOrange]

4 minutes ago, Antonio said:

I´m corious as to how did you chose wich players you were going to compare Zay and Foster.

I mentioned this in the article, but it's based on average target depth. So in Foster's case, he's #1 in the league in terms of average target depth, so his peer group is the top 15 deep threats.

 

Same deal with Zay; I put him in the middle of his peer group, so his average target depth on PFF is roughly 12 yards give or take. I then took the 8 above him and the 8 below him to form his peer group.

 

So their respective peer groups are made up of guys that are roughly performing the same role as them. Foster is compared to pure deep threats (though a couple surprising guys like Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin are in there too) while Zay is compared to guys that are running more intermediate routes.

[Antonio]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

I mentioned this in the article, but it's based on average target depth. So in Foster's case, he's #1 in the league in terms of average target depth, so his peer group is the top 15 deep threats.

 

Same deal with Zay; I put him in the middle of his peer group, so his average target depth on PFF is roughly 12 yards give or take. I then took the 8 above him and the 8 below him to form his peer group.

 

So their respective peer groups are made up of guys that are roughly performing the same role as them. Foster is compared to pure deep threats (though a couple surprising guys like Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin are in there too) while Zay is compared to guys that are running more intermediate routes.

 

 

Oh I see, I dind´t catch that in the article. 

 

As I said before, I still find it very interesting. 

[buffalostu2]

How can Jones be 17th in catch rate when he is being compared to 15 players?  

 

Also Foster's numbers are sure to be better because of who played QB in his games vs. a full season by Zay.

 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Robert Foster without doubt has a much higher ceiling than Zay Jones.

 

Zay is a more polished route runner but Foster has much more speed and separation capabilities.   They both have a future in the league.

 

I'm beginning to change my views on Foster, if he can continue to progress the way we've seen and he commits to his route running and continues to demonstrate good hands then he actually could end up being a very productive receiver in this league.

 

They will probably be competing for the WR3 spot next summer. 

[DCOrange]

5 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

How can Jones be 17th in catch rate when he is being compared to 15 players?  

 

Also Foster's numbers are sure to be better because of who played QB in his games vs. a full season by Zay.

 

 

Zay is in a group of 17.

 

And the beauty of this is that the QB play should, in theory, not matter. Having Peterman/Anderson throw off-target passes to Zay aren't being counted here. It's only counted if he has an actual chance to catch the ball. There's definitely some limitations there, as I imagine there's at least a decent degree of subjectiveness in determining what is and isn't catchable.

 

But for example, Zay was targeted 74 times as a rookie but only 47 of them were considered catchable. This year, he's been targeted 78 times and only 63 are considered catchable.

[GoBills808]

Interesting stuff...would like to know how you established the peer groupings.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I mentioned this in the article, but it's based on average target depth. So in Foster's case, he's #1 in the league in terms of average target depth, so his peer group is the top 15 deep threats.

 

Same deal with Zay; I put him in the middle of his peer group, so his average target depth on PFF is roughly 12 yards give or take. I then took the 8 above him and the 8 below him to form his peer group.

 

So their respective peer groups are made up of guys that are roughly performing the same role as them. Foster is compared to pure deep threats (though a couple surprising guys like Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin are in there too) while Zay is compared to guys that are running more intermediate routes.

 

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Interesting stuff...would like to know how you established the peer groupings.

See above

[Da webster guy]

Foster gets more separation than most receivers in the NFL.   It was his ball skills that have held him back, yet he's made the best catches of the year for us.

 

If I were Foster I would get an apartment near Josh in the offseason and train with him every day.   Those guys need to get timing and speed down so Josh can get used to Fosters speed and tendencies.   Throwing deep varies from one receiver to another because everyone runs differently.

 

We will draft a WR high, put Zay in the slot, and Foster can be the WR3.

 

Like Tasker always says, there are a million guys that can fly in a straight line (Listenbee types) but in order to make it in the NFL you have to be able to stop dead and catch balls underneath sometimes.  Seems Foster can do that, and he's bigger than most burner types.   Hard to believe he had less than 400 yards in his college career.

[ctk232]

2 hours ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

If they strip out and don't count balls they consider uncatchable, why don't the catch rate % and drop rate % add up to 100%?

 

Is the unaccounted for % a measure of how often the pass was neither droppped not caught, but knocked away by the defender after it hit the receiver's hands as the receiver was trying to "secure" the catch?  If so, it would be interesting to see that number separately listed for each receiver.

 

Not sure what else the unaccounted for % could possibly be. 

I had similar questions. You could poke holes in methodology all day long with most of these articles, too - including what parameters they are using to define "uncatchable." Or how often they might be targeted as a guy with 3-5 targets will likely have different percentage grades than a guy with 10-15 or more. The comparison to similar receivers is laughable to me on so many mathematical and logical levels - nowhere does it account for differences in scheme, or variance in QB performance. To extend the above percentage discrepancies, a QB that is incredibly inaccurate may only provide 2-3 actual "catchable" targets per game, vastly impacting the resulting percentage.

 

They do highlight certain pieces though that either agree or conflict with most people's eye test, but more often than not highlight whether a player is actually playing to their role (i.e. the whole Star debate and his PFF rating...guy is a stud at the one tech eating double teams and getting off the ball quickly, doesn't grade well in the sexy stats columns though).

Edited December 12, 2018 by ctk232

[Antonio]

Advance Metrics Zay Jones 2018 vs Draft Class.xlsx

 

Well I took some time to compare Zay to his Draft Class, if you have some time take a look.

 

I only included 13 of them includin McKenzi cause he is a Bills now.

 

I added ** to the teams that I think the QB play influences a lot (Top Tier QB) in this rankings 

 

What I take from this is that we should expect better production, kind of like Kenny Golladay, with better QB play. They both have similar playing time and Target Share.

 

If I have time I will do it for Foster later on. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Zay is in a group of 17.

 

And the beauty of this is that the QB play should, in theory, not matter. Having Peterman/Anderson throw off-target passes to Zay aren't being counted here. It's only counted if he has an actual chance to catch the ball. There's definitely some limitations there, as I imagine there's at least a decent degree of subjectiveness in determining what is and isn't catchable.

 

But for example, Zay was targeted 74 times as a rookie but only 47 of them were considered catchable. This year, he's been targeted 78 times and only 63 are considered catchable.

 

Now that is an interesting stat, what it is is a real indictment of Tyrod Taylor, esp compared to an allegedly inaccurate rookie and three other scrubs.

 

So 40% of Tyrod throws to Jones were uncatchable and this year 19%?  Somewhat mitigating that is a sure some of those uncatchable balls were the rookies fault for not running the right route.

Edited December 12, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive

[MJS]

Zay Jones is like a poor man's Robert Woods. I don't ever see him becoming a #1 WR, but he should always have a job and can be your #2 or #3 WR in a pinch.

 

It's difficult to know what Foster could be. His speed is impressive, but there are a lot of guys in the NFL with speed. He'll have to up his game in other areas and start making contested catches to be a #1. I don't see that happening, but he can be your deep threat.

 

They are both average, quality WR's. I bet having a true, elite #1 WR ahead of them on the depth chart (a guy you have to double) would do wonders for their stats and effectiveness.

[Alphadawg7]

QUESTION:  How are Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans "peers" of Robert Foster or even any of the other guys on the list?  They are not remotely close to the same WR as Foster, Goodwin, Jackson, etc.  KB is big and slow as molasses.  Evans is fast, but he is a physical freak and a beast.  I am not following how they are in the same peer group.  Seems like a mistake to have them inside this sample.  I can think of a lot of there WR's that are closer to his peer group that aren't on your list.

 

Same question for Zay's "peers".  Guys like Adams and Hopkins are way different types of WR.  Antonio Brown has way more speed and explosiveness.  Missing are guys that are really more like his peer group in type of WR, like Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, etc.  

 

Certainly appreciate the work, but the peer groups to me are not very accurate comparisons on either player.  

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Foster has grown on me over the course of the year. He's a Buffalo "blue collar" kind of guy and he's good for the team and the city. He could be the kind of role model every team wants and hopefully his production will continue to rise. He has gotten separation at this level and it's important. Now once the rest of his game comes along, I think he could be a great #2 or #3 and get 45-50+ REC,  700+ YDS and 6-8 TD's annually. Hopefully more.  

Zay could be a #2 possession type receiver and/or #3 slot guy working the inside of the field. I don't see him as the stretcher that Foster is.  I think all we really need is the #1 WR. The contest catch machine who makes big plays, can stretch the field and draws double coverage so others can make plays. Neither Zay or Foster are the mismatch creators.  

 

My goal would be get that #1, shore up the line with 3 new bodies,  get a real threat at TE,  and find a new bell cow #1 RB. That's a big order for one off-season but I feel we don't need 2-3 new WR with the emergence of these 2 and McKenzie as a #4 and special teamer. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

QUESTION:  How are Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans "peers" of Robert Foster or even any of the other guys on the list?  They are not remotely close to the same WR as Foster, Goodwin, Jackson, etc.  KB is big and slow as molasses.  Evans is fast, but he is a physical freak and a beast.  I am not following how they are in the same peer group.  Seems like a mistake to have them inside this sample.  I can think of a lot of there WR's that are closer to his peer group that aren't on your list.

 

Same question for Zay's "peers".  Guys like Adams and Hopkins are way different types of WR.  Antonio Brown has way more speed and explosiveness.  Missing are guys that are really more like his peer group in type of WR, like Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, etc.  

 

Certainly appreciate the work, but the peer groups to me are not very accurate comparisons on either player.  

 

It's based on average target depth. Benjamin and Mike Evans rank in the top 15 in the league this year in terms of how deep their average target is. They certainly aren't the typical archetype of a deep threat, but that's the way the numbers have averaged out this year. Evans just barely snuck into the top 15. There's actually only 6 WRs in the entire league that have received deeper targets on average than Benjamin.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

It's based on average target depth. Benjamin and Mike Evans rank in the top 15 in the league this year in terms of how deep their average target is. They certainly aren't the typical archetype of a deep threat, but that's the way the numbers have averaged out this year. Evans just barely snuck into the top 15. There's actually only 6 WRs in the entire league that have received deeper targets on average than Benjamin.

 

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Magox said:

Robert Foster without doubt has a much higher ceiling than Zay Jones.

 

Zay is a more polished route runner but Foster has much more speed and separation capabilities.   They both have a future in the league.

 

I'm beginning to change my views on Foster, if he can continue to progress the way we've seen and he commits to his route running and continues to demonstrate good hands then he actually could end up being a very productive receiver in this league.

I see Foster being a much better,  bigger and more durable version of Goodwin. I see Zay being slightly less reliable than Woods. Our #1 wr will come in April.

Harry or M Brown. 

[artmalibu]

I have been a Jones fan from last year.  But, I dont think he could ever be a #1 WR.  IMO Jones could be a solid #2.  If the Bill can get a legit #1 and decent production from the TE position Jones will do well.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

Can Foster be Allen’s Antonio Brown?

Edited December 13, 2018 by atlbillsfan1975

[DCOrange]

For those wondering why catches + drops doesn’t equal catchable targets, watching Zay today was a good example of it. He really struggled to make contested catches.