[Vague Title] The Sky Is Not Falling

[ColdFront_USAF]

I just had a chance to watch the game on game rewind, as my current time zone did not allow me to watch it live. I think being removed from the anticipation and energy felt during a highly anticipated game helped a bit with perspective. After reading the meltdown on TSW while at work, and then seeing the game for myself, I had a few thoughts.

 

POSITIVES:

 

Josh Allen did not melt down: sure he had an abysmal stat line. I am not a member of the "JA can do no wrong" crowd, and of course I hold him accountable for the errors he made. That under thrown ball (I believe to Kirkpatrick) would have been a pick probably 8 times out of 10, he got away with one there. Then there was the overthrow on the next play, not as dangerous but obviously not ideal.  But aside from those two throws, I saw a young and "raw" player making the most out of an impossible situation. Nothing went his way, but he remained composed and did what he could. He had drops from the two guys he should depend on the most, and the O Line may as well have not been there for a ton of his snaps, yet he did not make any major mistakes, and for a rookie, that's a positive in my book. He also showed good ball security considering he met the turf on pretty much every other play, something that seems to go unnoticed until its a problem.

 

Peterman looks serviceable: As long as Daboll does not commit the Cardinal Sin of calling plays for Peterman (any throw to the outside that requires arm strength), the guy looks like he can get the job done until they feel the time is right for Josh to take over. Just don't do it Brian, for the love of god, stick to the throws he can make to the guys in the blue jerseys.

 

The running game looks solid yet again: Remember, we didn't have our best RB on the field today, and they still ran the ball well without him. Ivory looked like a tank at times, and Marcus Murphy is having one of the best pre-seasons I've seen from a no-name guy, and the Bengals top defense did little to slow him down. With Shady wearing down the front 7, and Ivory bruising them, I think Murph will be an excellent piece for this offense. Also on this topic, the O Line seemed to remember they were playing football when a running play was called, so maybe they aren't entirely useless.

 

Davis bounced back a bit: Okay, that wr made him look ridiculous on that first play. Pretty embarrassing in all honesty. But when he came back in, he seemed to improve. That hit he made late in the game was nasty, and something I hope to see more of during the season.

 

WHY THE SKY IS NOT FALLING

 

We still have time to adjust the O Line: I would bet my next paycheck (it's not very much, so don't get excited) that the line we saw out there today will not be the same configuration we see against the Ravens in week 1. Dawkins wasn't even in the lineup today, and there is still time to replace one of the guards (preferably Duccasse) with Teller or possibly a dumpster dive pickup after cuts. I know they looked awful today, but there are moves that can be made to bring them a bit closer to serviceable.  Maybe put Castillo at quarterback during practice for some motivation, I think fans would enjoy that.

 

The defense was extremely vanilla: I saw a ton of people whining that there was little to no pressure from the front 7. Watching the game, I noticed damn near every snap was a 4 man rush, with Kyle Williams in gym shorts on the side line. We weren't going to build a dominant 4 man front like we saw a few years ago in one offseason, and like the vast majority of teams, we will need to manufacture our pressure with blitzes and a little deception at times. That's to be expected, and very few teams have a 4 man wrecking crew on the line. I expect to see much more variance defensively during the regular season that will help with creating pressure and stuffing the run. There was also little evidence of game planning defensively. If you're leaving AJ Green 1 on 1 with ANY cornerback in the redzone, you're wrong. It should have come to nobody's surprise that he beat Tre for the TD catch on a perfect throw from Dalton. There's a reason he is considered one of the best in the game, and I would absolutely expect more attention to be given to him in a regular season game. The same goes for the rest of the secondary. It really shouldn't be difficult for an experienced qb like Dalton to pick apart a vanilla cover 2 defense with little in the way of blitzing. Not a huge concern for me at this point.

 

Last, this team is still a work in progress: This mostly goes out to the "Fire Beane and McD now" crowd that will inevitably surface after every loss.  Yes, they neglected the O Line and the WR corps this year, and that was probably a mistake. However, for the first time in my lifetime, it would appear that we have a front office with a long term plan in place. They are well aware that we will have a ton of spending money next year, and Beane did a phenomenal job preserving our 2019 draft picks. This means, if executed properly, we may have a huge influx in talent next year, in addition to key guys like Allen and Edmunds getting a year of experience under their belts. Time will tell if it will work out, but for now, hang in there. We are far from a finished product, and the guys in the high level business meetings are well aware of this. 

[TPS]

It's the usual gnashing of teeth after a bad game, but it is still preseason ...

a few other things to add:

im a Teller fan, but much like Allen needs to sit and watch and learn, so does Teller.  He'll crack the lineup in due time. 

The O-line is much better against the run, and that should once again be the focus of the O, I hope

The strength of the passing game is the TE group--Croom and Thomas need to be on this team.

Vontae should be fine, it's the fact there is no depth behind the two outside starters that worries me more.

Unless AJ lights up the final, it's Nate on day 1. Btw, He seems to have a very good connection with KB and the TEs mentioned earlier. 

 

[Doc Brown]

Since this is an optimistic thread.  Edmunds looked good.  Two tackles for losses and absolutely blew up that toss play we usually get burned on.

Edited August 27, 2018 by Doc Brown

[bmur66]

Castillo at QB. Best idea yet!

[GETTOTHE50]

I’m still starting Allen game 1.

 

daboll now has to know what plays to call to shield that weak o line. It’s been shown the past two games that they can’t handle much.

 

Set up the run, run 7/10x if you have to. And then get the play action going. 

[ColdFront_USAF]

10 minutes ago, TPS said:

It's the usual gnashing of teeth after a bad game, but it is still preseason ...

a few other things to add:

im a Teller fan, but much like Allen needs to sit and watch and learn, so does Teller.  He'll crack the lineup in due time. 

The O-line is much better against the run, and that should once again be the focus of the O, I hope

The strength of the passing game is the TE group--Croom and Thomas need to be on this team.

Vontae should be fine, it's the fact there is no depth behind the two outside starters that worries me more.

Unless AJ lights up the final, it's Nate on day 1. Btw, He seems to have a very good connection with KB and the TEs mentioned earlier. 

 

 

Croom was a positive I forgot to mention. He looks like a freak athlete for his size, great hands and offers surprising RAC ability for a big guy. He could develop into a reliable target. 

 

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Since this is an optimistic thread.  Edmunds looked good.  Two tackles for losses and absolutely blew up that toss play we usually get burned on.

 

Absolutely. I watched him closely, and he seems to be playing faster with each game. He looked a bit lost against Carolina, but now he seems to be diagnosing plays and getting to the ball faster. He's made some excellent plays in the last two games. 

[SoTier]

The sky isn't falling because it already fell ... when Eric Wood was forced into retirement by injury and the team was just fine with Richie Incognito retiring, too.   Then, in FA, they let Seantrel Henderson leave before they traded away proven LT Cordy Glenn.  Whatever could have been done to address the OL should have been done months ago in FA and the draft, but as numerous posters have noted, McDermott and Beane chose to go with bottom feeder FAs and a single, later round prospect in the draft.

 

There are virtually never starter caliber OLers available at the end of preseason.  A team might pick up a young OL prospect who can't make another team's final 53 but teams generally don't sacrifice starting OLers because of the cap so late in the game.  Quality OLers are just too valuable because a team without a decent OL is totally stymied on offense no matter what other stars a team may have on offense.  Most teams GMs/HCs understand this but apparently it's a lesson that McDermott and Beane still have to learn.

[billsredneck1]

good points cf  and i shouldn't say this, but as i was watching the first half, this line of thought came into my mind.

 

i couldn't help but think...how could they possibly be playing this bad(all the way around)?  are they sending a signal as to who they want to start the regular season?

 

i hope that doesn't turn your thread into a crap storm, but it almost seemed like they were trying to be bad. i know it sounds ridiculous. maybe it was the beer....idk

[TheBeaneBandit]

9 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

Castillo at QB. Best idea yet!

The man is a visionary,  outstanding citizen,  and asset to his community! I concur...... Off with Castillo's head lol!

[vorpma]

16 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The sky isn't falling because it already fell ... when Eric Wood was forced into retirement by injury and the team was just fine with Richie Incognito retiring, too.   Then, in FA, they let Seantrel Henderson leave before they traded away proven LT Cordy Glenn.  Whatever could have been done to address the OL should have been done months ago in FA and the draft, but as numerous posters have noted, McDermott and Beane chose to go with bottom feeder FAs and a single, later round prospect in the draft.

 

There are virtually never starter caliber OLers available at the end of preseason.  A team might pick up a young OL prospect who can't make another team's final 53 but teams generally don't sacrifice starting OLers because of the cap so late in the game.  Quality OLers are just too valuable because a team without a decent OL is totally stymied on offense no matter what other stars a team may have on offense. 

"Most teams GMs/HCs understand this but apparently it's a lesson that McDermott and Beane still have to learn." Man, we need you in the front office, how did the NFL ever miss you! Your post has Super Bowl all over it!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The sky isn't falling because it already fell ... when Eric Wood was forced into retirement by injury and the team was just fine with Richie Incognito retiring, too.   Then, in FA, they let Seantrel Henderson leave before they traded away proven LT Cordy Glenn.  Whatever could have been done to address the OL should have been done months ago in FA and the draft, but as numerous posters have noted, McDermott and Beane chose to go with bottom feeder FAs and a single, later round prospect in the draft.

 

There are virtually never starter caliber OLers available at the end of preseason.  A team might pick up a young OL prospect who can't make another team's final 53 but teams generally don't sacrifice starting OLers because of the cap so late in the game.  Quality OLers are just too valuable because a team without a decent OL is totally stymied on offense no matter what other stars a team may have on offense.  Most teams GMs/HCs understand this but apparently it's a lesson that McDermott and Beane still have to learn.

 

Oh, please go **** on another thread, will you?

 

 

[White Linen]

20 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The sky isn't falling because it already fell ... when Eric Wood was forced into retirement by injury and the team was just fine with Richie Incognito retiring, too.   Then, in FA, they let Seantrel Henderson leave before they traded away proven LT Cordy Glenn.  Whatever could have been done to address the OL should have been done months ago in FA and the draft, but as numerous posters have noted, McDermott and Beane chose to go with bottom feeder FAs and a single, later round prospect in the draft.

 

There are virtually never starter caliber OLers available at the end of preseason.  A team might pick up a young OL prospect who can't make another team's final 53 but teams generally don't sacrifice starting OLers because of the cap so late in the game.  Quality OLers are just too valuable because a team without a decent OL is totally stymied on offense no matter what other stars a team may have on offense.  Most teams GMs/HCs understand this but apparently it's a lesson that McDermott and Beane still have to learn.

 

I sure hope you can teach them how to run the team.  I know I've already learned a ton from you.  

[dpberr]

I think that the offensive line is having a difficult time learning the new offense and the complete chaos is lack of communication and getting the line call correct.  I think it's part coordinator to coordinator communication and you have two inexperienced centers (one who's never started, one who just joined the team.)  You're asking a lot of those two men.  

 

I don't think the Bills have shown a thing on defense scheme wise.  I think you're seeing a combination of experiments and evaluation.  

 

The quarterbacks are fine.  I feel good about all three.  Improve protection and any of these guys will do well. 

[njbuff]

I will say this.

 

2 retirements and the trading of Glenn meant the Bills had to keep Vlad on this roster, force Miller to start and an uninspiring battle to ensue at C.

 

There is precedent to a bad OL derailing an entire season. Ask the 2017 New York Giants.

 

I am no fan of overreacting to preseason, but the OL looks frighteningly bad. All this means is that the QB’s and the RB’s had better prepare to get crushed and there is very little doubt that one (or more) of them will be lost to season-ending injuries.

 

Right now, the OL is going to destroy this season.

[YoloinOhio]

Well written post and quite thoughtful. Thanks for contributing!

[CountDorkula]

I am a bit concerned.

 

The offense couldn't sustain a drive against Cincinnati starters.

 

Yes, I know its preseason, but it's still alarming that they couldn't get anything going in what was supposed to be a dress rehearsal, so they say. 

[Soda Popinski]

Dawkins didn't play, so LT was an issue.  Our interior did not hold up vs Cincy's Dline.   Billings beat our guys on almost every play.   It was sad.  I don't know how much they gameplanned but it obviously wasn't enough.   That or the absolutely didn't have a plan to block up front. 

[Jerome007]

Defense was vanilla, but in the offense, I sure hope they are intelligent enough to add more sweeps, reverses, (we saw one  of each with Allen), rolling out the pocket if Allen is the QB as he is mobile, really short passes like Daboll did with the Cheatriots, in other words, anything to slow the pass rush and help that struggling OL. And what we didn't see, a few max protection plays with Benjamin and Coleman running deep to make use of Allen's cannon arm. Shady will add a boost but Murphy and Ivory were good enough that the run was there just enough to slow the pass rushers.... to no avail. But of course McCoy will add quite a dimension to the offense. 

 

On defense White was a step behind way too often. Edwards was much better though. Yes it is vanilla, but you expect the DL with the super high paid Star to do much better...

[Mango]

I like McD. Not calling him to be fired nor Beane.

 

a lot of our holes and current cap situation is created by the current FO. They shot themselevs in the foot. I don’t want to turn over the FO, but I am keeping a close eye. Wasn’t a fan of the Darby, Glenn (I do understand this helped us get Allen), or Darius trades. They also failed to bring in quality replacements on the OL.  I think we should have tried harder to keep Preston Brown. Our starting defense as a whole and offensive line could be much better. 

 

Instead we created roster holes and dead cap because Whaley I guess. They’re in a tough spot because they put themselves in a tough spot. 

12 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Defense was vanilla, but in the offense, I sure hope they are intelligent enough to add more sweeps, reverses, (we saw one  of each with Allen), rolling out the pocket if Allen is the QB as he is mobile, really short passes like Daboll did with the Cheatriots, in other words, anything to slow the pass rush and help that struggling OL. And what we didn't see, a few max protection plays with Benjamin and Coleman running deep to make use of Allen's cannon arm. Shady will add a boost but Murphy and Ivory were good enough that the run was there just enough to slow the pass rushers.... to no avail. But of course McCoy will add quite a dimension to the offense. 

 

On defense White was a step behind way too often. Edwards was much better though. Yes it is vanilla, but you expect the DL with the super high paid Star to do much better...

 

The Dareus trade with the Starr signing, means our starting DT costs us about 25 million this year with salary and dead cap, 

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

The sky isn't falling because it already fell ... when Eric Wood was forced into retirement by injury and the team was just fine with Richie Incognito retiring, too.   Then, in FA, they let Seantrel Henderson leave before they traded away proven LT Cordy Glenn.  Whatever could have been done to address the OL should have been done months ago in FA and the draft, but as numerous posters have noted, McDermott and Beane chose to go with bottom feeder FAs and a single, later round prospect in the draft.

 

There are virtually never starter caliber OLers available at the end of preseason.  A team might pick up a young OL prospect who can't make another team's final 53 but teams generally don't sacrifice starting OLers because of the cap so late in the game.  Quality OLers are just too valuable because a team without a decent OL is totally stymied on offense no matter what other stars a team may have on offense.  Most teams GMs/HCs understand this but apparently it's a lesson that McDermott and Beane still have to learn.

 

If you want a good advocate for the other side of the argument, start with ST who's being unfairly crucified in this thread.  

 

When your offensive lineman are overmatched and repeatedly lose their one-on-one battles - even in preseason - it's not a good sign for the regular season.  

 

Games are won and lost in the trenches.  Good teams usually have a Pro Bowler or two on the line.  We have borderline starters and guys who ought to be backups.  

 

I like the OP's optimism (and thanks for your service!).  I even like Beane and think he's done many good things.  But it's been perplexing to watch OBD ignore the OL after Wood and Incognito left.   Do they know something we don't?  Or was yesterday a precursor of what we can expect this season? 

 

I haven't lost hope yet.  I still think scheme and lineup changes might be able to mask or overcome some of the problems we saw yesterday.  At the same time, I get SoTier's pessimism.  

Edited August 27, 2018 by hondo in seattle