McBean Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 I can’t wait to bump some of these posts in 3 years. Going to be great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said: Why has any expert/NFL scout fallen in love with him? Of course his size, mobility, ability to throw the home run ball and he has shown glimpses of the Arron Rodgers throwing out of the pocket down the field. Every single QB in this class needs to get better. Nobody is good enough right now. Why not take the guy with the highest potential, especially since he doesn't have to start right away. I'd say - and I've heard scouts say - every college QB needs to get better. That's why, despite all their expertise and and hours of due diligence, scouting departments still decide upon the wrong QB year after year. It's hard to predict which QB will improve in the ways needed, and which won't. Personally, I am concerned about Allen. Guys who weren't productive in college usually aren't productive in the pros. Then again, I'd have been concerned about any of these guys because of the high fail rate of 1st round QBs. That all have shortcomings they may fail to overcome. Even an amazing talent evaluator like Bill Walsh was wrong almost as often as he was right. I won't pretend to know what to expect from Allen. I just cross my fingers and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. ChumChums Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Nothing to see here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Well the article said someone's going to be wrong. Either NFL talent pros or statistics. All we can do is wait and hope that the stats don't tell the whole story, because the stats tell a bleak story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said: I'd say - and I've heard scouts say - every college QB needs to get better. That's why, despite all their expertise and and hours of due diligence, scouting departments still decide upon the wrong QB year after year. It's hard to predict which QB will improve in the ways needed, and which won't. Personally, I am concerned about Allen. Guys who weren't productive in college usually aren't productive in the pros. Then again, I'd have been concerned about any of these guys because of the high fail rate of 1st round QBs. That all have shortcomings they may fail to overcome. Even an amazing talent evaluator like Bill Walsh was wrong almost as often as he was right. I won't pretend to know what to expect from Allen. I just cross my fingers and hope for the best. That's all we can do, root for the kid instead of tearing him down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 we shall see doubting Thomas. we all shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Kemp said: Well, we know it's not statistically-based. 3rd option that it could be based upon? Well gosh, I'm not an NFL scout or GM, so I can't say for sure. And neither are you, so dont talk as if you have such authority on the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 (edited) 38 minutes ago, noacls said: Not as bad as this thread. Rosen was not picked get over it I have no love or hate of Rosen. I had one desire for this draft. Just don't take Josh Allen. People are free to think I'm wrong, but no one can say that statistics don't make this look like an abominable pick. Cardale Jones had a good arm. How did that work out? Losman.... The list is never ending. 33 minutes ago, McBean said: I can’t wait to bump some of these posts in 3 years. Going to be great. Yeah, just like the guy who told us that Rudolph was going at 12. He's going to check back on that, too. Edited April 28, 2018 by Kemp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister Defense Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 A good read. But if accurate, if his college stats indicate it is extremely unlikely he will be a quality starting quarterback, this will go down in history as the worst pick in the Bills history. As that means that the Bills will have nothing to show for the first, third, and fourth picks this year, when they desperately needed them to rebuild their offensive line, linebackers, and wide receivers. And if Rosen becomes a great qb, well, it may be a quick end to the new Bills era. Really hoping that the Bills saw something definitive in Allen, and that they were fully aware of how poor his college stats were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 On 4/25/2018 at 9:25 AM, sleeby said: Here, I think many here may be well advised to brush up on this ahead of thursday: Shock. ... Denial. ... Anger. ... Bargaining. ... Grieving. ... Acceptance. Was just going to post something similar. Most of us have arrived to the acceptance stage of grief, but I still hate the pick. Allen is a Buffalo Bill now, so I'll root for him, no question, and hope he develops into an outlier, defying every "bust" statistic along the way, but I have my doubts. I just don't think he has the mind that makes the game easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 On 4/24/2018 at 1:27 PM, BillsEnthusiast said: I had a dream about him being drafted by us. He absolutely lit it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Everyone want to compare Allen to Wentz coming out of college because of the same coach. Here is the the thing in 15 more games Wentz threw for 49 more yards, 1 more td, and 7 less Ints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said: Well gosh, I'm not an NFL scout or GM, so I can't say for sure. And neither are you, so dont talk as if you have such authority on the matter. I know that statistics don't lie and can't be fudged. Only opinions can. I have zero authority on the matter, but anyone who looks at the stats I linked to and believes math is no longer a science, just doesn't understand reality. Allen could turn out to be the exception to the rule, but that doesn't change the fact that the rule exists and it has proven to be very reliable as a predictor of success. Those who attacked me as a troll are missing the point. It's not my opinion that he is unlikely to work out. It's the "opinion" of mathematics. If that makes people angry or upset with me is unimportant to me. Your gripe is with math. It's amazing to me that anyone can read that article and be confident on how this will play out well. I also realize that at least some of those who ridiculed the posted stats never read them, because it's a long and in-depth analysis, that some didn't have the time to read before dismissing it, so those folks are phonies. Like everyone else, I hope it's wrong on Allen, but experience teaches that the favorite comes in way more than the longshot. Edited April 28, 2018 by Kemp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 On 4/24/2018 at 1:27 PM, BillsEnthusiast said: I had a dream about him being drafted by us. He absolutely lit it up. Take this for what it's worth. Call me Nostradamus, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kemp said: I know that statistics don't lie and can't be fudged. Only opinions can. But they can be used to draw false conclusions. I posted this in the Allen thread, but seems relevant here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said: Most of us have arrived to the acceptance stage of grief, but I still hate the pick. Yep. I'm at acceptance now as well. I'm not confident he'll be able to fix his footwork any more than Manuel was able to. But time will tell and 2-3 years goes by pretty quickly. We'll just have to hope this time it works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Heitz said: But they can be used to draw false conclusions. I posted this in the Allen thread, but seems relevant here: Some of the many interesting stats: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starrymessenger Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 No not a nightmare scenario, not at all. Unlike EJ, who in most years would be a 3-4 round prospect at best, Allen is legit as a 1st round prospect. It should have been obvious (and it was to some) that EJ just couldn't do it. Allen's tape has given plenty of evidence that he can. He just has to do it more often. And that should be a question of discipline and repetition, which is what coaches are for. He has all the tools. Just needs to learn how to better use them. And that's why so many pro talent evaluators like him (not because they are stupid). I'm a Rosen guy but if you go with Beane's approach and philosophy (the same approach that yielded Edmunds) you cannot really complain about his taking Allen. Time to get behind this young man. If he pans out he will be really really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 (edited) On 4/24/2018 at 3:16 PM, zevo said: I am going to love reading this board when Allen is the pick Some of the tantrums have been pretty good but I expected more actually. Edited April 28, 2018 by QCity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, QCity said: Some of the tantrums have been pretty good but I expected more actually. It has exceeded my expectations....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, zevo said: It has exceeded my expectations....lol I wonder if any of them are going to be done with this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Mojo44 said: I wonder if any of them are going to be done with this team. We can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Kemp said: I know that statistics don't lie and can't be fudged. Only opinions can. I have zero authority on the matter, but anyone who looks at the stats I linked to and believes math is no longer a science, just doesn't understand reality. Allen could turn out to be the exception to the rule, but that doesn't change the fact that the rule exists and it has proven to be very reliable as a predictor of success. Those who attacked me as a troll are missing the point. It's not my opinion that he is unlikely to work out. It's the "opinion" of mathematics. If that makes people angry or upset with me is unimportant to me. Your gripe is with math. It's amazing to me that anyone can read that article and be confident on how this will play out well. I also realize that at least some of those who ridiculed the posted stats never read them, because it's a long and in-depth analysis, that some didn't have the time to read before dismissing it, so those folks are phonies. Like everyone else, I hope it's wrong on Allen, but experience teaches that the favorite comes in way more than the longshot. Nope. It's not math, it's proper use of statistics. And since football is almost the definition of a multivariate function picking one thing like completion percentage has little meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 2 hours ago, oldmanfan said: Nope. It's not math, it's proper use of statistics. And since football is almost the definition of a multivariate function picking one thing like completion percentage has little meaning. Your point would be valid if that was the only stat cited in the linked article. It makes me wonder if you read it, because there are many different kinds of stats cited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Kemp said: Your point would be valid if that was the only stat cited in the linked article. It makes me wonder if you read it, because there are many different kinds of stats cited. Well, yes I did look at it. And to properly analyze such information sophisticated multivariate analysis would need to be done. Football is the ultimate in multiple variables. What is the quality of your receivers, the quality of your protection schemes? What type of offense is run? Quality of defenses? I picked completion percentage because so many people harp on this. It stands to reason that completion percentages have increased over the years since so many college teams have gone to spread offenses. Receivers are more open, and QB have an easy time completing passes. Allen as I understand it played in more of a pro style offense. As did Rosen I believe, and I wanted Rosen as our pick because I feel he's farther advanced. Andceven with both playing a similar style, there are still dozens of variables to consider when trying to compare. We will see how Allen does. They key for him, really for any QB coming into the league, is whether they can process things such that the game slows down. Some compare Allen to JP; JP could never adjust mentally to the NFL; he couldn't get the game to slow down. Hopefully Allen does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 On 4/25/2018 at 9:25 AM, sleeby said: Here, I think many here may be well advised to brush up on this ahead of thursday: Shock. ... Denial. ... Anger. ... Bargaining. ... Grieving. ... Acceptance. Where does being so convinced he's going to be a bust that you start looking at 2019 top QB prospects shortly after Allen was taken fit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleeby Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Where does being so convinced he's going to be a bust that you start looking at 2019 top QB prospects shortly after Allen was taken fit? Sounds like bargaining to me. You're probably bargaining with the situation as " well, AJ is starting this year anyhow and we do still need more OL and WR adds yet so between Allen, N8 P and the guy we get in round 1 next spring something will bear fruit before the rest of the squad is ready to commence kicking ass." Mind you, these are not.my thoughts. I was pissed in the moment but then seeing Rosen act like a thin skinned and spoiled turd before and after he was drafted at 10 I realized we had dodged a bullet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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