Did the Bills get completely screwed on trade compensation last year?

[YoloinOhio]

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

Edited March 20, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[KDIGGZ]

should have traded with a worse team like the Texans.  Browns found the right partner

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

The Bills also got the 91st pick in the 2017 draft, a 3rd rounder.

[Foxx]

we were in what, 10 place? traded back to 27th and got a first this year. i'd say it was a good trade for us. providing Mahomes is not a true franchise qb.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

The Bills also got the 91st pick in the 2017 draft, a 3rd rounder.

Meh

[Chuck Wagon]

But Mahomes is pretty much just like Tyrod, while trading to #2 could get us Baker Mayfield, who actually plays to win the games.

[BuffaloHokie13]

We got a 3% premium based on the new chart. Definitely in bro-deal territory, but not screwed imo.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We got a 3% premium based on the new chart. Definitely in bro-deal territory, but not screwed imo.

Nice 

[BillsFan130]

Here is the math for it.

 

Bills 10th pick was worth 1300 points.

 

Chiefs 27th pick was worth 680.

 

Bills got the chiefs 22nd pick this year which was probably a reasonable guess without knowing where the chiefs would finish.

 

So that pick is worth 780.

 

780 plus 680 was 1460 in total compared to 1300 for the 10th pick.

 

There always seems like there is a bit of a premium, so I would say the trade was pretty fair

[YoloinOhio]

It doesn’t feel fair. I’m cranky. Carry on. You can tell I never look at charts but just seems like we should have been able to get more! Eff you Chefs.

[2003Contenders]

The "value" of picks in the first round get exponentially smaller the later you go in the round. That's why it costs more to move up, say, from 6 to 3 than it does to move up, say, 27 to 10. Then there is the notion of supply and demand. For a variety of reasons there was significantly less hype surrounding the QBs than there has been this year.

[DrDawkinstein]

"This has been the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever"

 

 

But seriously, nah, it's pretty much spot on.

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It doesn’t feel fair. I’m cranky. Carry on. You can tell I never look at charts but just seems like we should have been able to get more! Eff you Chefs.

had they stumbled last year, our pick from them would have been higher. crap shoot but not totally unexpected.

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

had they stumbled last year, our pick from them would have been higher. crap shoot but not totally unexpected.

That 6 game swoon at mid season had my hopes up 

[PaattMaann]

13 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

But Mahomes is pretty much just like Tyrod, while trading to #2 could get us Baker Mayfield, who actually plays to win the games.

 

huh?

[CuddyDark]

Outside the top ten is always less value.

[Foxx]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

That 6 game swoon at mid season had my hopes up 

i think Reid is stuck in the Schottenheimer mold. great coach, just not great enough. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Dorsey owes us one. Maybe there is a wink wink nod nod there. Maybe that's why we got a third for Tyrod? 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Foxx said:

we were in what, 10 place? traded back to 27th and got a first this year. i'd say it was a good trade for us. providing Mahomes is not a true franchise qb.

 

The real question is whether you felt whaley was qualified to make that decision.

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

 

I don't think if memory serves me correct that Mahomes was a late 1st/2nd round prospect for awhile.  Rosen has been a top 5 prospect for the last 2 years.

I'm thinking that Rosen was considered that much of a better prospect but just a guess.  

[Foxx]

Just now, dneveu said:

 

The real question is whether you felt whaley was qualified to make that decision.

honest question here...

 

why would Whaley have been the one to make that decision?

 

at the time of the draft last year, the popular wisdom on the board was that Whaley was merely a lackey and doing McDermotts bidding. I happen to agree with that line of thinking as, if they knew they were going to fire him, why on Earth would they let him make picks forming the future of the franchise he was no longer going to be part of.  

 

 

[Jauronimo]

20 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

General consensus here is that McD and somehow Beane ran last year's draft so I'm surprised to see Whaley now get credit.  Albeit credit for the one part of the draft you now have issue with.  Last year around this time, the trade was a stroke of genius.  Whaley was a dead man walking and there was no way he was allowed to execute a trade in round 1. 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Dorsey owes us one. Maybe there is a wink wink nod nod there. Maybe that's why we got a third for Tyrod? 

I agree! 

[dave mcbride]

25 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

I don't think so. These trends depend on the perceived value of the player. If we're talking about, say, Darnold, he's far more highly rated than Mahomes.

[MrEpsYtown]

We've talked about this before and some people agree with me, but I really think McDermott shelved the idea of taking a quarterback until he had his own GM and scouts etc in place. Why would he make such a huge decision with Whaley and his scouts when he knew Whaley was gone after the draft? 

 

This is the year for the quarterback. 

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I don't think so. These trends depend on the perceived value of the player. If we're talking about, say, Darnold, he's far more highly rated than Mahomes.

That’s part of my question... was Mahomes that much lower rated than the guys this year?

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the math for it.

 

Bills 10th pick was worth 1300 points.

 

Chiefs 27th pick was worth 680.

 

Bills got the chiefs 22nd pick this year which was probably a reasonable guess without knowing where the chiefs would finish.

 

So that pick is worth 780.

 

780 plus 680 was 1460 in total compared to 1300 for the 10th pick.

 

There always seems like there is a bit of a premium, so I would say the trade was pretty fair

There's always a discount involved with future picks. I'm not sure how the discounting works in terms of points, but firsts in subsequent years are generally regarded as seconds.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

There's always a discount involved with future picks. I'm not sure how the discounting works in terms of points, but firsts in subsequent years are generally regarded as seconds.

Even worse

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Foxx said:

honest question here...

 

why would Whaley have been the one to make that decision?

 

at the time of the draft last year, the popular wisdom on the board was that Whaley was merely a lackey and doing McDermotts bidding. I happen to agree with that line of thinking as, if they knew they were going to fire him, why on Earth would they let him make picks forming the future of the franchise he was no longer going to be part of.  

 

 

 

McDermott isn't qualified to make an evaluation about whether a Quarterback is the real deal or not.  The scouting reports still came from Whaley and his scouts. 

 

McDermott targeted seniors, and mostly guys he watched met, and watched practice and play during the senior bowl.  

[Robert James]

18 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the math for it.

 

Bills 10th pick was worth 1300 points.

 

Chiefs 27th pick was worth 680.

 

Bills got the chiefs 22nd pick this year which was probably a reasonable guess without knowing where the chiefs would finish.

 

So that pick is worth 780.

 

780 plus 680 was 1460 in total compared to 1300 for the 10th pick.

 

There always seems like there is a bit of a premium, so I would say the trade was pretty fair

 

The value of this year's 22nd pick would have been about 360, since the value of the next year's pick is generally valued at a round lower (pick 54).  But we also got last year's 91st pick, valued at 136.  So, the total would have been 680 + 360 + 136 = 1176.  Perhaps a bit low, but in the realm of reason given the possibility the Chiefs season would go worse than it did.

 

This year's rumored numbers look reasonable too. 

 

  2.        2600  (Value of Giant's number 2)

 We are rumored as offering:

12.        1200

22.         780

53.         370

65.         265

Total value for our rumored offer

:   2615

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

McDermott isn't qualified to make an evaluation about whether a Quarterback is the real deal or not.  The scouting reports still came from Whaley and his scouts. 

 

McDermott targeted seniors, and mostly guys he watched met, and watched practice and play during the senior bowl.  

yeah, no. i don't believe you let a guy make a decision that important that you know is not going to be around much longer. if you trusted his judgment that much, you probably wouldn't be planning to move on.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Foxx said:

yeah, no. i don't believe you let a guy make a decision that important that you know is not going to be around much longer. if you trusted his judgment that much, you probably wouldn't be planning to move on.

 

We got our guy anyway.  Petermannnnnn!

5 minutes ago, Robert James said:

 

The value of this year's 22nd pick would have been about 360, since the value of the next year's pick is generally valued at a round lower (pick 54).  But we also got last year's 91st pick, valued at 136.  So, the total would have been 680 + 360 + 136 = 1176.  Perhaps a bit low, but in the realm of reason given the possibility the Chiefs season would go worse than it did.

 

This year's rumored numbers look reasonable too. 

 

  2.        2600  (Value of Giant's number 2)

 

 

 We are rumored as offering:

12.        1200

 

22.         780

 

53.         370

 

65.         265

 

Total value for our rumored offer

:   2615

 

Gotta remember - McDermott looks at it like... the extra 1st next year is talent evaluated by the new GM and scouting staff

[TPS]

38 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the math for it.

 

Bills 10th pick was worth 1300 points.

 

Chiefs 27th pick was worth 680.

 

Bills got the chiefs 22nd pick this year which was probably a reasonable guess without knowing where the chiefs would finish.

 

So that pick is worth 780.

 

780 plus 680 was 1460 in total compared to 1300 for the 10th pick.

 

There always seems like there is a bit of a premium, so I would say the trade was pretty fair

As Sal said this morning, GMs discount next year’s pick by a round at the time of the trade.  I assume the trade worked in KC’s favor in that case. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

41 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the math for it.

 

Bills 10th pick was worth 1300 points.

 

Chiefs 27th pick was worth 680.

 

Bills got the chiefs 22nd pick this year which was probably a reasonable guess without knowing where the chiefs would finish.

 

So that pick is worth 780.

 

780 plus 680 was 1460 in total compared to 1300 for the 10th pick.

 

There always seems like there is a bit of a premium, so I would say the trade was pretty fair

The 22nd this year wasn't worth 780 exactly because we had to wait a year for it. Not saying it wasn't an OK deal but the Chiefs kind of messed it up a bit by not sucking.

[apuszczalowski]

You can't judge last year's move by moves made this year. This is like comparing apples and potatoes. Different teams, different players, situations, needs, evaluations, etc. The demand was different last year to this year. 

 

I would say the deal worked out well for both teams. The Chiefs got the player they wanted, the Bills also got the player they wanted and additional picks

Edited March 20, 2018 by apuszczalowski

[dave mcbride]

22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

That’s part of my question... was Mahomes that much lower rated than the guys this year?

Darnold got a 7.0 rating, and Mahomes a 5.8. Rosen is a 6.1, and both Mayfield and Allen are 6.0. My understanding, however, is that while the difference between 5.8 and the low 6s may seem small, it's considered pretty relevant. 6.0 is the cutoff for a  presumptively good starter. Below that, the projection gets dicier.

[BadLandsMeanie]

48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Moved down 17 spots and only got one future 1st? And the the player selected was the 2nd QB off the board. Compared to what we are going to have to give up for moving up 10 spots for the 2nd QB off the board? Is Rosen considered that much better than Mahomes or was Whaley asleep! I know it is to 2 instead of 10 but we also moved to 27 instead of 12.

I think you have to look at it in context. That is to say, based on what McDermott (who ran that draft) was seeing at the time.

 

So look at it this way a minute. We got Tre White who was a legit top candidate for defensive rookie of the year.

So we did not have to pay Gilmore 14 million dollars a year.

And we got their 2018 1st and 3rd.

 

Mahomes has played one game. The jury is out on him. 

 

When I look at it that way I can't say we did the wrong thing. Unless as people say, Mahomes turns out franchise.

[blargo]

41 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

That 6 game swoon at mid season had my hopes up 

Mine too.  I thought maybe they lose out and we get a top 12 pick.

[Chuck Wagon]

35 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

That’s part of my question... was Mahomes that much lower rated than the guys this year?

 

 

Simply put, yes.  Darnold & Rosen have been the guys everyone has been drooling over for over a year.  Allen was the intriguing mystery and Baker charged his way onto the scene (though that feels more like a media/fan creation than real scouting).  Mahomes was viewed as a wildcard, basically a less polished Allen from a system notorious for allowing QBs to outshine their talent.

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, TPS said:

As Sal said this morning, GMs discount next year’s pick by a round at the time of the trade.  I assume the trade worked in KC’s favor in that case. 

If you go by the outdated chart, yes. Most of the trade ups that have occurred since the wage scale have the team moving up providing less than the team moving down based on the JJ chart.