QB Draft confessional

[billspro]

6 hours ago, Blokestradamus said:

2011 was the first draft class that I really paid attention to. I'll list 'my guys' from that point on.

 

2011 - Colin Kaepernick

2012 - Russell Wilson (honourable mention to the blue turf beast himself, Kellen Moore)

2013 - Matt Barkley (I've watched those USC games back, still would draft him)

2014 - Teddy Bridgewater/Zach Mettenberger

2015 - Loved Jameis, liked Marcus, hated everyone else like they slept with my sister.

2016 - Early Wentz truther, Goff lover, Dak appreciator. Paxton Lynch still looks like he should be in a knock-off Pirates of the Caribbean film.

2017 - Deshone Kizer, king of my heart. I'm going to die on this hill. If anyone knows where Hue Jackson lives, I have a package to send him.

 

As far as the Bills go, I'm on record as being a Tyrod 'hater' from his second preseason game. Not because I think he's terrible, just that he's the type of guy you cling to for years because of the odd spark here and there. I worried the team wouldn't strive to do better than 'on his day, he can be good enough.'

 

Hated the Peterman pick, disliked the EJ pick. Long live Kyle Orton.

 

2013- Did not feel like there was any elite QBs in the draft. I like EJ Manuel in the second, Mike Glennon in the third, and Landry Jones in the fourth. I did not like Geno Smith or Matt Barkley. Bottom line there was no right answer in this draft, they all sucked. 

2014- I didn't really pay attention to QBs in this draft because we just drafted Manuel. I didn't like Bortles or Manziel. 

2015- Mariota was my number one QB, I gave him a top 5 grade. I was not as high On Winston as most, I had him rated on about the same level as Flacco. 

2016- Love Carson Wentz, I gave him a top 5 grade. I did not like Jared Goff as much as most. I gave Goff a 2nd or 3rd round grade. I liked Paxton Lynch and was hoping the Bills would draft him in the late first. I gave Hackenberg a 6th or 7th round grade. I liked Brissett and Kessler as mid to late round prospects. I only watched on game on Prescott against Alabama and he looked horrible, I probably should have watched him more. 

2017- I really liked Deshaun Watson I gave him a top 5 grade. Trubisky had a first round grade a little higher than Ryan Tannehill. Mahommes had an early second round grade, Kizer had a 2-3rd round grade.  liked Cooper Rush as a late round prospect but I was only able to find one game on him. 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, TtownBillsFan said:

I've been a TT supporter, b/c he's been the best QB we've had since at least Flutie.  And, as Flutie was, I love rooting for the underdog.

 

I'm a humongous Sooners fan, and I'm hoping we end up with Baker.

 

If we choose not to move around in the draft, and Mayfield is not there for us at our first pick, I hope we get Rudolph.

Read TT's draft report.   He's the same guy.  

Strengths

Weaknesses

 

Scouting Report 

• hard working kid that has improved every year, but it is unclear if he can play quarterback at the next level. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he is somewhat erratic as a passer. 
• also does not show the consistent sound decision making to be an efficient quarterback
• greatest asset is his athleticism and heshould be able to contribute immediately as a running back, receiver or return man.
• A terrific senior season, where he completed nearly 60% of his passes

 

STRENGTHS

• Has excellent mobility and continually evades the rush while keeping his eyes downfield. Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes. Team leader and fierce 

WEAKNESSES

• Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws.

[billspro]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I liked and still like Tyrod. I didn't expect much from him when he originally signed, but I knew a guy that had connections to the team and he was telling my family that Rex favored Tyrod the whole way. I still think Tyrod is roughly an average starting QB; he's just a unique QB that is best suited to be playing on a team with a great defense and WRs that can go deep. I was also told that going back a little further, the previous regime badly wanted Eddie Lacy the year he was in the draft. I also had a heads up that the Bills were secretly in love with EJ Manuel a few months before the draft and were letting the media run wild with the Nassib connection to hide their interest.

 

Going back to past draft classes:

2013: I didn't love any of them, but if forced to choose, I preferred Nassib and Geno. As I mentioned though, I had a heads up about the interest in EJ...I remember absolutely hating his film but the Bills loved his personality and physical tools and were hoping they could coach him up the way Marrone did with Nassib at Syracuse. Of course the plan was never for EJ to play as early as he did but their plans went out the window very quickly.

 

2014: Manziel was my #1 QB. I didn't (and still don't) like Bridgewater at all. I was meh on Bortles; thought it was a reach at #3 but thought he was fine in general as a 1st round pick. I liked Garappolo a lot, but I may have subconsciously been rooting for him just due to him coming from a small school. I still think Manziel would have been a good QB if not for his addiction problems.

 

2015: I loved Jameis. I liked Mariota a lot. The Bucs were my childhood team and I still watch almost all their games, so I was extremely invested in that draft class. I always preferred Jameis but I would have been happy with either guy. The rest of that class was pretty awful; I thought Petty at least had some potential, but he was just a developmental guy and the rest were garbage.

 

2016: I loved Wentz. I preferred Paxton Lynch over Goff. I despised Cardale. I also was told that Buffalo planned to take Dak at that spot but obviously the Cowboys beat them to the punch by a couple of picks.

 

2017: I viewed last year's class like this: there was a QB prospect for all types of philosophies; no Andrew Luck-level prospect, but you could get a good prospect for any type of QB that you prefer. I personally loved Mahomes. My rankings were Mahomes, Watson, Kizer, Trubisky, Webb, in that order.

 

This year, my rankings are (not necessarily who I think will be best, but the order in which I'd take them):

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Sam Darnold

3. Josh Allen

4. Baker Mayfield

5. Josh Rosen

6. Kyle Lauletta

7. Logan Woodside

8. Luke Falk

9. Mason Rudolph

 

I think there is going to be a lot of differing opinions on the QBs this year. Why don't you like Rudolph?

 

Right now I would rank them: 

 

1) Rudolph 2) Mayfield 3) Rosen 4) Darnold 5) Jackson 6) Woodside 7) Allen 8) Falk 9) Benkert 10) Litton

 

Everyone else I have as undrafted right now.  

As far as grades. My top four all have mid to late first round grades, Jackson is second, Allen and Woodside third, Falk is fourth, and the other guys 5th or 6th round. 

[John from Riverside]

I still am a TT supporter...and I think he is going to go to a team that emphasis more on the guy catching the ball making the plays then him being a perfect qb and that team will do well.

 

But I think his time is done here.......and I have no problems trading the farm to get up to those top 2 QBs

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

I think there is going to be a lot of differing opinions on the QBs this year. Why don't you like Rudolph?

 

Right now I would rank them: 

 

1) Rudolph 2) Mayfield 3) Rosen 4) Darnold 5) Jackson 6) Woodside 7) Allen 8) Falk 9) Benkert 10) Litton

 

Everyone else I have as undrafted right now.  

As far as grades. My top four all have mid to late first round grades, Jackson is second, Allen and Woodside third, Falk is fourth, and the other guys 5th or 6th round. 

 

I think Rudolph is a low floor, low ceiling pick. I responded to someone else asking the same thing. Basically:

 

Velocity: below-average or average at best

Accuracy: probably average

Athleticism: below-average

Progressions: He played in a one-read spread offense

 

I just don't see anything there that can excite anyone. I'd be fine taking him in like the 4th or 5th round, but even if he pans out, I see him as a bottom-tier starter or decent backup.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

I think there is going to be a lot of differing opinions on the QBs this year. Why don't you like Rudolph?

 

Right now I would rank them: 

 

1) Rudolph 2) Mayfield 3) Rosen 4) Darnold 5) Jackson 6) Woodside 7) Allen 8) Falk 9) Benkert 10) Litton

 

Everyone else I have as undrafted right now.  

As far as grades. My top four all have mid to late first round grades, Jackson is second, Allen and Woodside third, Falk is fourth, and the other guys 5th or 6th round. 

 

I have my top 4 in a different order but the same 4 as 1st rounders. Then agree on Jackson, Allen and Falk. Not seen anyone else enough to grade. 

[LeGOATski]

I started really paying attention to QBs in 2012. Luck was coming out. It was becoming painfully obvious that you need a legitimate passer in today's NFL. I really liked Wilson and though he would go late first, early 2nd. Didn't like anyone else in that draft besides Luck.

 

2013, I was actually a huge Manuel fan, with Barkley as my second choice. I was excited when Buffalo traded back and grabbed Manuel+extra pick. I thought that was a perfect move.

 

Bridgewater was my fave in 2014, but I wasn't too focused on QBs. I was all-in on a stud WR and the Bills agreed. As far as Bridgewater goes, I could see he was the full package. He was a developed passer with great mobility and a great mentality. Too bad injuries have hampered him.

 

I didn't like anybody in 2015. Hated the prospect of Winston and I just thought Mariota wasn't there mentally. I figured if the Bills picked anyone, Hundley would be good in a later round.

 

In 2016, Cook was my favorite. Thought he was 1st round material that  the Bills had a shot at. I also wanted Prescott, because he looked like he improved greatly as a passer in his senior year and was a tough runner. Just wasn't sure how well he'd  translate to the NFL. By the third round, I thought for sure that one of these guys would be a Bill and was really confused by  the fact that they took no one. Hated the prospect of Goff and didn't really know what to think about Wentz. I mostly just wanted a good passer, like I still do now. 

 

In 2017, I didn't like anyone really. Everyone I watched looked poor. I figured the Bills should take Brad Kaaya in a later round. His mechanics were good, so he was a good piece of clay to mold.

 

This year, I'm all in on a QB again. I like the two Oklahoma prospects as guys the Bills have a shot to get. Mayfield looks like he has developed into a good passer and is a tough runner, a gamer. Very similar to Prescott, actually. Different players, but same idea. Rudolph looks like he can stand in the pocket and make all the throws. I would be happy if the Bills drafted him at 21/22 and shored up the O-line.

Edited January 22, 2018 by LeGOATski

[Chuck Wagon]

I kind of feel there's two possible outcomes for Mayfield.

 

1)  The Browns take someone like Barkley #1 then take Baker #4 and claim he was the #1 guy on their board.

 

2) It's Manziel 2.0  ESPN uses him for all their draft hype stuff, they interview him on the red carpet, then he's one of the last ones in the green room with his head buried crying until a team like the Redskins or Dolphins trades into the late 20s to take him.

[The Jokeman]

In 1995 when we took Todd Collins in the 2nd round, I thought we should have taken Rob Johnson instead. Yet because we took Todd I then thought we should have taken Amani Toomer (Michigan connection) over Eric Moulds in 1996. When we signed Doug Flutie, me and a friend immediately launched the Flutie Haters website as it felt like a slap in the face that we signed a guy who had no great NFL success in his first NFL stint. I almost shut down the site the week of a Jets game in 1998 yet Flutie played horribly that day and left the site open. I always felt that starting Flutie over RJ set back the franchise years because Doug was too old to give us a long term answer at QB and wouldn't let RJ improve because he wasn't playing. I wasn't a fan of the trade up for Losman. I thought we took EJ Manuel way too soon when we drafted him but didn't mind the trade down to get him. I felt EJ got a raw deal as felt he might have developed more on the field. I have never felt Tyrod was an answer. Last year before he went back to school I thought Mason Rudolph was the best QB option for the Bills in Round 1 and felt Peterman would be a 3rd Rounder. I was happy we got the latter in the 5th. I haven't given up hope on Peterman yet I'd trade up to get Rosen this year or sit tight and take Rudolph with one of first two picks. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by The Jokeman

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Not a TT fan, want Mayfield.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

I don't Iike bad QBs

[Mat68]

12 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

I propose before posting about the QB position you disclose your past.  

I have been a TT supporter and wanted the Bills to trade down as they did and then trade back up in 2017 draft for Kizer when he fell.  I thought they were trading up for Kizer when they took Zay Can't catch Jones.  I thought he should have stayed in school but he could sit a year or two behind TT.  I think jury is still out on him.  Will be so interesting to see what Cleveland does. 

I know at least 25% or more of this board wanted Manziel.  I'm not saying just because you wanted Manziel you should not have a voice in the discussion but those that did should come clean and own that draft suggestion.  Most of us knew he was a bust waiting to happen. 

As for 2018 and as of now, Josh Allen would be my top rated QB but likely will be gone or cost too much to move up and get.  

 

So you wanted Kizer and are a superior elevator.  No one knows what Manziel would have become if he didn't have a drinking problem and wasnt a C level internet celebrity.  Everyone has had misses and hits it is irrelevant.  If you like or dislike a prospect explain your position and that is where conversations happen.  Some people see and like different things in Qbs.  Some people only see the guys who are on the first 15 mins of Sportscenter Saturday or Sunday morning.  I agree I like Allen, saying you liked Kizer and didnt like Manziel doesnt do anything with the conversation about Allen.  Do you like Allen because of his arm strength and size?  Is that why you like Kizer and not Manziel?  The reason i like Allen and his ability to make 30 yard throws and dropping them in a bucket or launching a missile of a throw in a three foot window down the seem like Rodgers, Farve or Marino.    

Edited January 22, 2018 by Mat68

[Jay_Fixit]

Never liked Tyrod. Athletic, quick, nice arm. He just doesn’t really know how to QB. I’m looking forward to moving on. 

 

This year I love Darnold and Mayfield. Don’t really care for anyone else. My least favorite is Lamar Jackson. I want the Bills to stay far away from him. At least at QB...

 

2017 draft - Loved Watson. Really dislike Mahomes and Kizer. I think both are in for rough careers. Not a big Trubisky fan either.

2016 - Didn’t mind Wentz, loved Goff. Absolutely hated Prescott and Lynch.

2015 - Loved Mariota and Winston. Still do.

2014 - Was all about Bridgewater and Derek Carr. Felt Carr should have been a top 10 pick. Felt Bridgewater should have gone #1.

2013 - Said I’d run naked through the streets if the Bills took Barkley. Liked Glennon next. 

2012 - Loved Luck, Griffin and Wilson and Foles. Hated Osweiler.

 

As a PAC-12 enthusiast and someone who goes to a lot of games each year, I’m more familiar with the PAC-12 guys than others so my opinions on them are stronger.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Jay_Fixit

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

2012 - Loved Luck, but being younger and drawn to the electrifying plays Griffin made scrambling around, I naively preferred Griffin but had the 2 even talentwise. 

2013 - I was convinced that EVERY draft HAD TO HAVE at least 1 franchise QB somewhere and it was only a question of identifying who it was going to be....  I liked EJ for his plays where he ran around and was exciting (But this is not sustainable at the NFL level).

2014 - Didn't have a preference between Cook, Carr, or Bridgewater..  Felt all of them could become good to great NFL Starters if developed.

2015 - Really liked Winston and Mariotta, preferred Winston at this point as I understood that QBs that run around a lot rarely have sustained success in the NFL.

2016 - Didn't look into Goff and Wentz all that much as they were untouchable for us.  Don't understand the Prescott love and believe Dak is not as good of a passer as he is given credit for.

2017 - Saw Trubisky as the best pocket passer of the bunch and still believe that.  Liked Watson but was (Still am) not sold on him being a good enough passer, we will see.  I didn't and still don't understand the love Mahomes gets but everyone loves him so I'm missing something. Mahomes does seem to have the personality and a gamer mentality.... Maybe I'm not seeing it because I don't want to see it and admit the Bills passed on a great prospect...  But I just don't see what the announcers and analysts are wooing about with him.

 

2018 - See Rosen as the clear cut #1 Darnold as the #2, and a toss up between Rudolph and Allen.  I don't see Rudolph or Allen being 1st rounders but expect them both to be picked in the 1st by some team.  Would love for Rosen to get the ol' McD approval during the interviews and have the Bills jump up to get him, but not sure his personality will check out.... but I trust whatever McD decides, man knows what he's doing.

Edited January 22, 2018 by BillsInWilmingtonNC

[DCOrange]

37 minutes ago, BillsInWilmingtonNC said:

2012 - Loved Luck, but being younger and drawn to the electrifying plays Griffin made scrambling around, I naively preferred Griffin but had the 2 even talentwise. 

2013 - I was convinced that EVERY draft HAD TO HAVE at least 1 franchise QB somewhere and it was only a question of identifying who it was going to be....  I liked EJ for his plays where he ran around and was exciting (But this is not sustainable at the NFL level).

2014 - Didn't have a preference between Cook, Carr, or Bridgewater..  Felt all of them could become good to great NFL Starters if developed.

2015 - Really liked Winston and Mariotta, preferred Winston at this point as I understood that QBs that run around a lot rarely have sustained success in the NFL.

2016 - Didn't look into Goff and Wentz all that much as they were untouchable for us.  Don't understand the Prescott love and believe Dak is not as good of a passer as he is given credit for.

2017 - Saw Trubisky as the best pocket passer of the bunch and still believe that.  Liked Watson but was (Still am) not sold on him being a good enough passer, we will see.  I didn't and still don't understand the love Mahomes gets but everyone loves him so I'm missing something. Mahomes does seem to have the personality and a gamer mentality.... Maybe I'm not seeing it because I don't want to see it and admit the Bills passed on a great prospect...  But I just don't see what the announcers and analysts are wooing about with him.

 

2018 - See Rosen as the clear cut #1 Darnold as the #2, and a toss up between Rudolph and Allen.  I don't see Rudolph or Allen being 1st rounders but expect them both to be picked in the 1st by some team.  Would love for Rosen to get the ol' McD approval during the interviews and have the Bills jump up to get him, but not sure his personality will check out.... but I trust whatever McD decides, man knows what he's doing.

Mahomes has incredible arm strength, had surprisingly solid accuracy for a guy with the poor footwork he has, and has the ability to make something out of nothing. He has a ton of potential if you can teach him to play a little more within the system.

[Alphadawg7]

14 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

I propose before posting about the QB position you disclose your past.  

I have been a TT supporter and wanted the Bills to trade down as they did and then trade back up in 2017 draft for Kizer when he fell.  I thought they were trading up for Kizer when they took Zay Can't catch Jones.  I thought he should have stayed in school but he could sit a year or two behind TT.  I think jury is still out on him.  Will be so interesting to see what Cleveland does. 

I know at least 25% or more of this board wanted Manziel.  I'm not saying just because you wanted Manziel you should not have a voice in the discussion but those that did should come clean and own that draft suggestion.  Most of us knew he was a bust waiting to happen. 

As for 2018 and as of now, Josh Allen would be my top rated QB but likely will be gone or cost too much to move up and get.  

 

 

I told everyone at the end of 2016 that we CAN win with TT and CAN make the playoffs if the defense just makes modest to solid improvement.  And in 2017 we did just that.  I was told over and over I was an idiot and TT will never play in the playoffs for any team.

 

Last year I was not high on taking a QB in the draft.  I felt the D needed more help than our offense (which was 3rd in the league in TD's scored in TT's 15 starts) where our defense was 26th in the NFL in points allowed if you take out the week 4 NE shutout fluke with no Brady, Jimmy, or Gronk and a 3rd string rookie with a hurt throwing hand.  

 

I was right about the D improvement being enough to get us to the postseason.  I wasn't high on any QB in the draft with the risks, so preferred to go after D and other help to focus on D this year.  I had concerns on Watson, but he was the one QB I would have preferred to draft if we did go QB in the first, but I also was not wanting to go QB for the reasons I stated above.  His early play before the injury certain was proving my concerns wrong.  I hated the idea of taking Mahomes in the first and hated Kizer all together.  I knew we weren't getting Trubisky, so he was never under consideration by me.  

 

I also hated:  Losman, Trent, and Fitz.  There were some guys I was really wanting outside the first round, like a while back I really wanted to draft Mallet in the 3rd for value and was pissed when Pats got him.  I also was really wanting us to draft Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins in 2012.  I also wanted to draft Kapernick in the 2nd.

 

I was happy Fitz was gone, but hated the draft class that year.  I didn't know much about EJ, but supported it because there wasn't anyone else I was really liking anyway and I liked the leadership qualities that were coming out with his team speeches.  But was never enamored with the pick, just hopeful.

 

This year I dont consider Rosen or Darnold obtainable.  I would like Baker or Allen, but dont think Beane will pay the price to get them.  So I think it comes down to Mason, Falk or Jackson.  I am favoring Jackson now because I think he has the most upside, but I wouldn't mind Mason either.  Falk I am not very excited about, but I also no the least about him.  

 

MY ULTIMATE PREFERANCE:  Sign Kirk Cousins, and spend draft filling holes.  We would have been at least 12-4 in 2017 with Cousins as we win Car, Cincy, and Charger games with him and still win the other 9 we didn't win.  I like having all these picks to add to a roster that had 12 win potential this past year with Cousins at the helm.  

 

PS:  My biggest whiff:  Wasn't actually a QB...it was passionately believing Spiller could be an every down and dominant back after his big season.  Talk about falling off a cliff after that season.  He fooled me plenty.  Didn't help I loved him coming out of college even though I hated drafting him since we didn't need a RB, but once he was a Bill I was super excited for him.  

Edited January 22, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[BringBackOrton]

2014: Manziel, Bridgewater

2015: Winston

2016: Early Wentzer

2017: Watson

 

2018:??  

 

Haven't watched a lot of these guys play this season, been too busy.  As the biggest Manziel guy on this forum, and probably the second biggest Wentz and Watson guy, I have no regrets.  I still believe Manziel can ball.  Just needs to be more football, and less 8 ball.

[billspro]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

I think Rudolph is a low floor, low ceiling pick. I responded to someone else asking the same thing. Basically:

 

Velocity: below-average or average at best

Accuracy: probably average

Athleticism: below-average

Progressions: He played in a one-read spread offense

 

I just don't see anything there that can excite anyone. I'd be fine taking him in like the 4th or 5th round, but even if he pans out, I see him as a bottom-tier starter or decent backup.

 

I agree with most of what you said. His velocity is very average, it is the most concerning part of his game. I am still trying to figure out if he has enough to be a good NFL QB. I like his accuracy for the most part, he misses on deep balls a little too much for my liking. He does not have great mobility, but I think he does a good job moving in the pocket to buy time. Progressions are obviously hard to figure out in the spread offence but he does have NFL reads in his offence and makes NFL throws. I would much prefer taking him in the second round. 

 

I think Mayfield is the cleanest prospect, it is just tough taking a short QB in round 1. Rosen is the most talented QB but I do not believe he has the personality to be great at the NFL level. Darnold should have stayed in school another year. He has all the talent but will probably be an int machine his first couple years in the league. 

[Teddy KGB]

Trade pick 21 and 22 for Patrick Mahomes II 

 

He just favorited my tweet.     Mahomes for life now ! 

[Agent 91]

Never liked Tyrod as an entrenched starter. Really wanted Mahomes but thought Watson was the perfect fit for the offense we were running. 

 

My biggest mistakes were really liking Chase Daniel

 

Thinking Geno Smith was better than EJ

 

I didn't believe the Prescott love

 

However

 

Didn't see a once in a generational talent in Andrew Luck.

 

Was deathly afraid we might select Mike Glennon, Brock Osweiler, or Ryan Mallet.

 

Didnt bite on Matt Barkley or Leinart. NO THANK YOU

Edited January 23, 2018 by Agent 91