Completion % And How It Translates To The Pros

[Like A Mofo]

Just remember one thing about accuracy and how it translates from college to the NFL, it does not always show an indication on how accurate a QB will be in the NFL

 

1. EJ Manuel had a 66.9% completion percentage at Florida State for his career. Way Off.

2. Aaron Rodgers had a 63.8% completion percentage at Cal in his two seasons in the Pac-12, Aaron exceeded this.

3. Tim Tebow had a 66.4% completion percentage in his Florida career. Way off.

4. Peyton Manning had a 62.5% completion percentage in his 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton exceeded this in the Pros.

5. Big Ben had a 65.5% completion percentage at Miami (OH), that was a good indicator.

6. Matthew Stafford was a 57.1% passer for Georgia in his career. Stafford completed 65.7% this year for the Lions. Way off.

7. Matt Ryan was a 59.9% passer for his career at Boston College. In the Altanta offense, Ryan has drastically improved that number. Way off.

 

College completion percentage is not an exact science. It is a skill that can be improved on, based on the system, coaching, and talent around that QB.

 

And it can fool NFL scouts and coaches like we did with EJ and not indicate fully what that player can do in the pros.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Like A Mofo

[Virgil]

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

[KDIGGZ]

Jim Kelly completed 100% of his passes depending on who you talk to.  in real life, he only completed 55% in college and 60% in the pros 

Edited January 18, 2018 by kdiggz

[Like A Mofo]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

 

 

Agree and this is why I can't trash guys like Josh Allen. Maybe he learns a different offense in the pros and improves. Same with Lamar Jackson.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

 

Yeah - its easy to throw to a receiver who is legit standing there who can come back and get the ball.  Precision isn't as important.  

 

Geno Smith completed like 71% in his senior year, but if you watched the highlights they were all screens to Austin and Bailey.  

[KDIGGZ]

Tyrod completed 57% of his throws in college and 62% in the pros, but that's because he won't throw the ball unless the guy is totally wide open so those numbers are skewed

[jrober38]

Generally speaking you shouldn't bother looking at college stats as a way of projecting how a QB will do in the NFL.

[GG]

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

[Gugny]

There's not one college stat that means crap when evaluating a QB's readiness for the NFL.  Not one.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

Just remember one thing about accuracy and how it translates from college to the NFL, it does not always show an indication on how accurate a QB will be in the NFL

 

1. EJ Manuel had a 66.9% completion percentage at Florida State for his career. Way Off.

2. Aaron Rodgers had a 63.8% completion percentage at Cal in his two seasons in the Pac-12, Aaron exceeded this.

3. Tim Tebow had a 66.4% completion percentage in his Florida career. Way off.

4. Peyton Manning had a 62.5% completion percentage in his 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton exceeded this in the Pros.

5. Big Ben had a 65.5% completion percentage at Miami (OH), that was a good indicator.

6. Matthew Stafford was a 57.1% passer for Georgia in his career. Stafford completed 65.7% this year for the Lions. Way off.

7. Matt Ryan was a 59.9% passer for his career at Boston College. In the Altanta offense, Ryan has drastically improved that number. Way off.

 

College completion percentage is not an exact science. It is a skill that can be improved on, based on the system, coaching, and talent around that QB.

 

And it can fool NFL scouts and coaches like we did with EJ and not indicate fully what that player can do in the pros.

 

Interesting post and good points, especially the overall point that one needs to look at more than completion percentage to choose a successful guy at the next level.

 

Stafford had a low career completion % overall, but it trended up - 53,56,61.2% - as did his passing yards and TDs.  So I look at that and say "he was improving quite a bit".  Ryan's first year at BC was abysmal and pulled his overall % down, but for 2 years he was over 60% then  dropped his Sr year.  If there's a reason why that drop occurred, it concerns me less.

 

What I come out with is: a high completion percentage may or may not transfer to the pros, depending upon other factors such as what sort of passes were being completed and what sort of offense the QB ran. 

 

But a low completion percentage all 4 years, seems like cause for concern.

 

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

There's not one college stat that means crap when evaluating a QB's readiness for the NFL.  Not one.

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

16 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Jim Kelly completed 100% of his passes depending on who you talk to.  in real life, he only completed 55% in college and 60% in the pros 

 

63% his last year.  Trended up all 4 years.  Completion percentage overall lower back then in college as in pros, I believe.

7 minutes ago, GG said:

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

 

So who do we like based on that rule?

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Like A Mofo]

12 minutes ago, GG said:

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

 

 

The 26-27-60 rule, what is that one? Sounds interesting

[GG]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting post and good points, especially the overall point that one needs to look at more than completion percentage to choose a successful guy at the next level.

 

Stafford had a low career completion % overall, but it trended up - 53,56,61.2% - as did his passing yards and TDs.  So I look at that and say "he was improving quite a bit".  Ryan's first year at BC was abysmal and pulled his overall % down, but for 2 years he was over 60% then  dropped his Sr year.  If there's a reason why that drop occurred, it concerns me less.

 

What I come out with is: a high completion percentage may or may not transfer to the pros, depending upon other factors such as what sort of passes were being completed and what sort of offense the QB ran. 

 

But a low completion percentage all 4 years, seems like cause for concern.

 

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

 

63% his last year.  Trended up all 4 years.  Completion percentage overall lower back then in college as in pros, I believe.

 

So who do we like based on that rule?

I don't think it's available yet because the QBs have yet to take the Wonderlick 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, GG said:

I don't think it's available yet because the QBs have yet to take the Wonderlick 

 

Gotcha.  When do they take it?

[Mrbojanglezs]

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Gotcha.  When do they take it?

At the combine

[ddaryl]

How many sub 60% completion % QB's coming out of college went on to have impressive carrers

 

Yes system can skew that data.. Bu tif a QB can't throw 60% avergane in college its pretty damn close ot a forget about it

 

yes there wil be an anomaly or 2 but bottom line its a good starting point for the arm chair QB to go by

[SouthNYfan]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

 

 

Really liked your post as a whole.

Agreed with it all.

I snipped this section out to give an answer.

 

I googled about 3-4 QBs randomly, for college stats, and while, as you pointed out with Kelly, comp% used to be lower, Brett Favre, the eternal gunslinger, fits your bill of sub 60% in college, and had a great pro career.

 

Brett's college comp%? 40.7, 55.8, 54.1, 54.5

A total of 52.4% cumulative.

 

Interesting because he only had I think 4-5 seasons sub 60% in the NFL and two were like 59.8%

 

If there are any others I'd love to know too.

I'll look myself.

Very interesting research.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

The 26-27-60 rule, what is that one? Sounds interesting

 

I'm not sure who came up with it.  It was described in a 2010 Sports Illustrated article by John Lopez.

"If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level."

 

"Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford...... among the once highly-touted prospects who failed at least one part of the formula: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell "

 

(NB he must be looking at having >60% completions in some college yr since as pointed out Staffod overall did not complete >60% and Ryan fell short his Sr yr)

 

He points out exceptions of Ben Roethlisberger (wonderlic 25), Jay Cutler (57% overall completions - but he did pass 61% one year, just like Matt Ryan and Stafford) and Joe Flacco (starts) as well as Brett Favre (low Wonderlic) and Donovan McNabb (even lower Wonderlic).

 

Take it with a grain of salt, but it's an interesting perspective.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

How many sub 60% completion % QB's coming out of college went on to have impressive carrers

 

Yes system can skew that data.. Bu tif a QB can't throw 60% avergane in college its pretty damn close ot a forget about it

 

yes there wil be an anomaly or 2 but bottom line its a good starting point for the arm chair QB to go by

 

Not many - and most of them don't come from spread attacks.  Someone put this list together and its pretty damning.  Taylors the only one on the entire list to go above 60% in the pros... and it wasn't even with the team who drafted him.  

 

2010 John Skelton (5) 58.8 (64.4) 69/36 20 17 53.2
2010 Jonathon Crompton (5) 55.3 (58.3) 36/22 0 0 0.0
2010 Rusty Smith (6) 56.4 (57.3) 76/36 3 1 51.1
2010 Joe Webb (6) 59.1 (59.8) 37/25 51 4 57.9 *not now a QB in the NFL
2011 Jake Locker (1) 54.0 (55.4) 53/35 30 23 57.5
2011 Colin Kaepernick (2) 58.2 (64.9) 82/24 57 47 59.9
2011 Ryan Mallett (3) 57.8 (64.7) 69/24 13 6 53.1
2011 Ricky Stanzi (5) 59.8 (64.1) 56/31 0 0 0.0
2011 Nathan Enderle (5) 54.6 (56.7) 74/60 0 0 0.0
2011 Tyrod Taylor (6) 57.2 (59.7) 44/20 22 8 66.0
2012 Ryan Lindley (6) 55.5 (53.0) 90/47 9 6 50.8
2012 BJ Coleman (7) 57.4 (60.9) 52/32 0 0 0.0
2013 BJ Daniels (7) 57.3 (56.9) 52/39 0 0 0.0
2014 Logan Thomas (4) 55.5 (56.5) 52/39 2 0 11.1
2014 Tom Savage (4) 56.8 (61.2) 37/19 2 0 52.6
2014 Garrett Gilbert (6) 58.7 (66.5) 49/45 0 0 0.0
2015 Trevor Siemian (7) 58.9 (58.2) 27/24 0 0 0.0

[ndirish1978]

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

 

Agree and this is why I can't trash guys like Josh Allen. Maybe he learns a different offense in the pros and improves. Same with Lamar Jackson.

 

Maybe I haven't watched enough tape on Jackson, but I don't see them as the same type of player.

[Jay_Fixit]

55 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Generally speaking you shouldn't bother looking at college stats as a way of projecting how a QB will do in the NFL.

Unless they play in a friendly system designed for success yet only complete 57% of their passes.

 

Also, for college completion % it’s not really translatable if the % is high (Tebow, Manuel). It’s usually if the college % is low (Vick, Leaf).

[Gugny]

49 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

 

 

No.

 

Look at mechanics, footwork and decision-making skills.  Look at work ethic.  If the Wonderlic score is 15 or less, pass on the kid.

 

None of these QBs are facing NFL defenses.  Most of them aren't facing more than 2-3 future NFL defensemen in any given game.  Most of them are throwing the ball to receivers who won't sniff the NFL.  This is why college stats are worthless.

 

[Woodman19]

This is essentially the Allen vs. Mayfield argument.

[Jay_Fixit]

44 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

Exactly.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

 

That's kind of my take on the subject - again, with the caveat I am not a watcher of college football.

[Mrbojanglezs]

14 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Exactly.

 

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's kind of my take on the subject - again, with the caveat I am not a watcher of college football.

 

Which is why drafting a qb is so hard. There are college systems that will inflate stats but doesn't translate to the pros.

[jrober38]

24 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Unless they play in a friendly system designed for success yet only complete 57% of their passes.

 

Also, for college completion % it’s not really translatable if the % is high (Tebow, Manuel). It’s usually if the college % is low (Vick, Leaf).

 

True.

 

There are thresholds. Most guys who complete fewer than 59% of their throws in their final year of college ever amount to anything in the NFL. 

[SouthNYfan]

Brett Favre!

52-54% college

64% NFL if I remember right

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Look at mechanics, footwork and decision-making skills.  Look at work ethic.  If the Wonderlic score is 15 or less, pass on the kid.

 

None of these QBs are facing NFL defenses.  Most of them aren't facing more than 2-3 future NFL defensemen in any given game.  Most of them are throwing the ball to receivers who won't sniff the NFL.  This is why college stats are worthless.

 

 

I wonder (ha!) how well the Wonderlic really predicts the kind of learning the QBs in the NFL need to do.

 

Footwork and mechanics are straightforward and can be evaluated from film, sure.

 

But doesn't the fact that the QB aren't facing NFL defenses make it all the more important that they should have a reasonable completion percentage?  How do you evaluate a guy's decision making skills if he's not able to throw completions?  I mean, come on, almost all these receivers can catch and as you say, against lower-quality defenses at least one of them can get open 2/3 of the plays - the reason for the phrase "college open"

[Fadingpain]

Of course you can't rely purely on statistics; you need to watch what these players are doing and see the games.

 

Especially at the college level, it seems like you will often see a long throw for a TD.  Looks great on the stat sheet for the QB and the WR.

 

In reality, the ball was grossly under thrown and totally undefended by a CB who will never touch the NFL...the DB gets all turned around and lost in space, the WR comes back to the ball, catches it, and runs in for a TD.

 

If you only go by stats, this might look like a 65 yard completion for a TD.

In the NFL, it's an interception.

 

Forget the stats!  You have to use your eyes to see what is happening; the game is much more complex than stats allow for.

 

 

Another favorite of mine: college QB drops back, stares down #1 receiver, then throws to wide open #1 receiver for a completion when #1 receiver uses huge talent mismatch to get 5 yards open on bad DB who will never be drafted into the NFL.

 

This all looks good on the stat sheet.  In reality, the QB has shown you NOTHING that is of value in the NFL and in fact he may be showing you bad traits that won't work in the NFL.

You have to see what is happening on the field.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Fadingpain

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Brett Favre!

52-54% college

64% NFL if I remember right

 

The college game has changed dramatically since he played 28 years ago...

 

There are a handful of guys who improved their accuracy over the past 30 years. Not great odds. 

[row_33]

it's a nice stat, not meant to represent 100% of an honest and objective review

 

there are so many other factors to consider which can totally flip this stat on its head

 

but why are you doing this?  for your fantasy team projections?  to finally defeat your brother-in-law who insists that Brady was twice the QB Jim Kelly was?

 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

Just remember one thing about accuracy and how it translates from college to the NFL, it does not always show an indication on how accurate a QB will be in the NFL

 

1. EJ Manuel had a 66.9% completion percentage at Florida State for his career. Way Off.

2. Aaron Rodgers had a 63.8% completion percentage at Cal in his two seasons in the Pac-12, Aaron exceeded this.

3. Tim Tebow had a 66.4% completion percentage in his Florida career. Way off.

4. Peyton Manning had a 62.5% completion percentage in his 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton exceeded this in the Pros.

5. Big Ben had a 65.5% completion percentage at Miami (OH), that was a good indicator.

6. Matthew Stafford was a 57.1% passer for Georgia in his career. Stafford completed 65.7% this year for the Lions. Way off.

7. Matt Ryan was a 59.9% passer for his career at Boston College. In the Altanta offense, Ryan has drastically improved that number. Way off.

 

College completion percentage is not an exact science. It is a skill that can be improved on, based on the system, coaching, and talent around that QB.

 

And it can fool NFL scouts and coaches like we did with EJ and not indicate fully what that player can do in the pros.

 

Whats so funny to me is people still use Completion Percentage to explain accuracy

[Gugny]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I wonder (ha!) how well the Wonderlic really predicts the kind of learning the QBs in the NFL need to do.

 

Footwork and mechanics are straightforward and can be evaluated from film, sure.

 

But doesn't the fact that the QB aren't facing NFL defenses make it all the more important that they should have a reasonable completion percentage?  How do you evaluate a guy's decision making skills if he's not able to throw completions?  I mean, come on, almost all these receivers can catch and as you say, against lower-quality defenses at least one of them can get open 2/3 of the plays - the reason for the phrase "college open"

 

The Wonderlic has actually done very well predicting how likely a QB is to be a failure in the NFL.  Since 2000, not one QB who's scored 15 or lower has had a successful career as a starter.  Not one.

 

That does not mean that one who scores 16 or higher WILL have a successful career as a starter (see:  Ryan Fitzpatrick).

 

It means that one who scores 15 or less will DEFINITELY NOT be good.

It means that one who scores 16 or more MIGHT be good.

 

*** Please note the 2000 cut off.  Inevitably, whenever I put this out there, some yokel says, "oh yeah?  Well Jim Kelly only scored a 14 on his!!!"  Yes ... I know ...

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Brett Favre!

52-54% college

64% NFL if I remember right

 

61.4% in his first gig, but your point still stands.

 

Wonder if Favre is the "traded to a place where the bars close early" exception.

5 minutes ago, row_33 said:

it's a nice stat, not meant to represent 100% of an honest and objective review

there are so many other factors to consider which can totally flip this stat on its head

but why are you doing this?  for your fantasy team projections?  to finally defeat your brother-in-law who insists that Brady was twice the QB Jim Kelly was?

 

I'm having trouble parsing this post.  What are you talking about?

[SouthNYfan]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The college game has changed dramatically since he played 28 years ago...

 

There are a handful of guys who improved their accuracy over the past 30 years. Not great odds. 

 

Oh I know!!

 

Earlier somebody said they would like to see some QBs who had sub60% in college, and translated to better in NFL.

My earlier post even said that the game has changed a lot, so it's not really a good example, just an example of sub 60% college who succeeded

 

Favre was the only real anomaly I could find.

It was just a statistical fact finding mission, not saying he's the norm

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

61.4% in his first gig, but your point still stands.

 

Wonder if Favre is the "traded to a place where the bars close early" exception.

 

 

I think you're right.

[Lofton80]

John Butler used to appear on local radio and always made it clear that they track these player at their practices and games for years but really liked to watch them perform

against the best opposition. That is why so talent evaluators many like to watch the Senior Bowl practices.

 

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Not many - and most of them don't come from spread attacks.  Someone put this list together and its pretty damning.  Taylors the only one on the entire list to go above 60% in the pros... and it wasn't even with the team who drafted him.  

 

 

 

Yeah the 60% completion % college stat is good starting spot... From there you need to determine the system / Coach style, field reads, arm strength, measurables (hand size) surrounding talent, and level of competition etc... but that 60% is significant

Edited January 18, 2018 by ddaryl

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Some other 26-27-60 grades (comp% trend)

 

Tyrod 15-38-57 (57-56-59.7) close his senior year

Teddy B  20-37-68 (64-68-71) great % in L'ville O, low Wonderlic like TT

Cousins  33-39-64 (60-66-63) wonder if this regression hurt him in draft

A.Smith  40-23-66   interesting case, very smart, only 2 yr starter for Urban

[Fadingpain]

Here is a "drill" they need to invent if they haven't done so already.

 

Take a QB candidate at the combine and make him do 3 mental activities at once.

 

Respond verbally to audible commands, while arranging words in alphabetical order, and changing which chair he is seated in when told to do so.  Just process information all at the same time. 

See who can do it.

 

The best fighter pilots and race car drivers have a tremendous ability to multi-task in this manner.  

 

Seems to me the best NFL QBs in 2018 need to be able to do this too. 

 

Has anyone in the football community even thought of this sort of test?  They seem to busy measuring a guy's standing broad jump.

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Fadingpain