Jump to content
Like A Mofo

Completion % And How It Translates To The Pros

Recommended Posts

Just remember one thing about accuracy and how it translates from college to the NFL, it does not always show an indication on how accurate a QB will be in the NFL

 

1. EJ Manuel had a 66.9% completion percentage at Florida State for his career. Way Off.

2. Aaron Rodgers had a 63.8% completion percentage at Cal in his two seasons in the Pac-12, Aaron exceeded this.

3. Tim Tebow had a 66.4% completion percentage in his Florida career. Way off.

4. Peyton Manning had a 62.5% completion percentage in his 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton exceeded this in the Pros.

5. Big Ben had a 65.5% completion percentage at Miami (OH), that was a good indicator.

6. Matthew Stafford was a 57.1% passer for Georgia in his career. Stafford completed 65.7% this year for the Lions. Way off.

7. Matt Ryan was a 59.9% passer for his career at Boston College. In the Altanta offense, Ryan has drastically improved that number. Way off.

 

College completion percentage is not an exact science. It is a skill that can be improved on, based on the system, coaching, and talent around that QB.

 

And it can fool NFL scouts and coaches like we did with EJ and not indicate fully what that player can do in the pros.

Edited by Like A Mofo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jim Kelly completed 100% of his passes depending on who you talk to.  in real life, he only completed 55% in college and 60% in the pros 

Edited by kdiggz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

 

 

Agree and this is why I can't trash guys like Josh Allen. Maybe he learns a different offense in the pros and improves. Same with Lamar Jackson.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. 

 

It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup 

 

Yeah - its easy to throw to a receiver who is legit standing there who can come back and get the ball.  Precision isn't as important.  

 

Geno Smith completed like 71% in his senior year, but if you watched the highlights they were all screens to Austin and Bailey.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tyrod completed 57% of his throws in college and 62% in the pros, but that's because he won't throw the ball unless the guy is totally wide open so those numbers are skewed

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Generally speaking you shouldn't bother looking at college stats as a way of projecting how a QB will do in the NFL.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's not one college stat that means crap when evaluating a QB's readiness for the NFL.  Not one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

Just remember one thing about accuracy and how it translates from college to the NFL, it does not always show an indication on how accurate a QB will be in the NFL

 

1. EJ Manuel had a 66.9% completion percentage at Florida State for his career. Way Off.

2. Aaron Rodgers had a 63.8% completion percentage at Cal in his two seasons in the Pac-12, Aaron exceeded this.

3. Tim Tebow had a 66.4% completion percentage in his Florida career. Way off.

4. Peyton Manning had a 62.5% completion percentage in his 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton exceeded this in the Pros.

5. Big Ben had a 65.5% completion percentage at Miami (OH), that was a good indicator.

6. Matthew Stafford was a 57.1% passer for Georgia in his career. Stafford completed 65.7% this year for the Lions. Way off.

7. Matt Ryan was a 59.9% passer for his career at Boston College. In the Altanta offense, Ryan has drastically improved that number. Way off.

 

College completion percentage is not an exact science. It is a skill that can be improved on, based on the system, coaching, and talent around that QB.

 

And it can fool NFL scouts and coaches like we did with EJ and not indicate fully what that player can do in the pros.

 

Interesting post and good points, especially the overall point that one needs to look at more than completion percentage to choose a successful guy at the next level.

 

Stafford had a low career completion % overall, but it trended up - 53,56,61.2% - as did his passing yards and TDs.  So I look at that and say "he was improving quite a bit".  Ryan's first year at BC was abysmal and pulled his overall % down, but for 2 years he was over 60% then  dropped his Sr year.  If there's a reason why that drop occurred, it concerns me less.

 

What I come out with is: a high completion percentage may or may not transfer to the pros, depending upon other factors such as what sort of passes were being completed and what sort of offense the QB ran. 

 

But a low completion percentage all 4 years, seems like cause for concern.

 

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

There's not one college stat that means crap when evaluating a QB's readiness for the NFL.  Not one.

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

16 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Jim Kelly completed 100% of his passes depending on who you talk to.  in real life, he only completed 55% in college and 60% in the pros 

 

63% his last year.  Trended up all 4 years.  Completion percentage overall lower back then in college as in pros, I believe.

7 minutes ago, GG said:

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

 

So who do we like based on that rule?

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, GG said:

Completion % on its own is not as relevant statistic as the 26-27-60 rule, where the combination of the three is a decent predictor.  QBs who passed the rule generally  had success in the NFL than QBs who failed the rule. 

 

 

The 26-27-60 rule, what is that one? Sounds interesting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting post and good points, especially the overall point that one needs to look at more than completion percentage to choose a successful guy at the next level.

 

Stafford had a low career completion % overall, but it trended up - 53,56,61.2% - as did his passing yards and TDs.  So I look at that and say "he was improving quite a bit".  Ryan's first year at BC was abysmal and pulled his overall % down, but for 2 years he was over 60% then  dropped his Sr year.  If there's a reason why that drop occurred, it concerns me less.

 

What I come out with is: a high completion percentage may or may not transfer to the pros, depending upon other factors such as what sort of passes were being completed and what sort of offense the QB ran. 

 

But a low completion percentage all 4 years, seems like cause for concern.

 

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

 

63% his last year.  Trended up all 4 years.  Completion percentage overall lower back then in college as in pros, I believe.

 

So who do we like based on that rule?

I don't think it's available yet because the QBs have yet to take the Wonderlick 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, GG said:

I don't think it's available yet because the QBs have yet to take the Wonderlick 

 

Gotcha.  When do they take it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Gotcha.  When do they take it?

At the combine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How many sub 60% completion % QB's coming out of college went on to have impressive carrers

 

Yes system can skew that data.. Bu tif a QB can't throw 60% avergane in college its pretty damn close ot a forget about it

 

yes there wil be an anomaly or 2 but bottom line its a good starting point for the arm chair QB to go by

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd love to be educated about guys who never broke 60% completions in college, not for even 1 year, and became successful pros.  So far the only example brought forward has been Mike Vick.

 

 

 

Really liked your post as a whole.

Agreed with it all.

I snipped this section out to give an answer.

 

I googled about 3-4 QBs randomly, for college stats, and while, as you pointed out with Kelly, comp% used to be lower, Brett Favre, the eternal gunslinger, fits your bill of sub 60% in college, and had a great pro career.

 

Brett's college comp%? 40.7, 55.8, 54.1, 54.5

A total of 52.4% cumulative.

 

Interesting because he only had I think 4-5 seasons sub 60% in the NFL and two were like 59.8%

 

If there are any others I'd love to know too.

I'll look myself.

Very interesting research.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

The 26-27-60 rule, what is that one? Sounds interesting

 

I'm not sure who came up with it.  It was described in a 2010 Sports Illustrated article by John Lopez.

"If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level."

 

"Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford...... among the once highly-touted prospects who failed at least one part of the formula: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell "

 

(NB he must be looking at having >60% completions in some college yr since as pointed out Staffod overall did not complete >60% and Ryan fell short his Sr yr)

 

He points out exceptions of Ben Roethlisberger (wonderlic 25), Jay Cutler (57% overall completions - but he did pass 61% one year, just like Matt Ryan and Stafford) and Joe Flacco (starts) as well as Brett Favre (low Wonderlic) and Donovan McNabb (even lower Wonderlic).

 

Take it with a grain of salt, but it's an interesting perspective.

 

 

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

How many sub 60% completion % QB's coming out of college went on to have impressive carrers

 

Yes system can skew that data.. Bu tif a QB can't throw 60% avergane in college its pretty damn close ot a forget about it

 

yes there wil be an anomaly or 2 but bottom line its a good starting point for the arm chair QB to go by

 

Not many - and most of them don't come from spread attacks.  Someone put this list together and its pretty damning.  Taylors the only one on the entire list to go above 60% in the pros... and it wasn't even with the team who drafted him.  

 

2010 John Skelton (5) 58.8 (64.4) 69/36 20 17 53.2
2010 Jonathon Crompton (5) 55.3 (58.3) 36/22 0 0 0.0
2010 Rusty Smith (6) 56.4 (57.3) 76/36 3 1 51.1
2010 Joe Webb (6) 59.1 (59.8) 37/25 51 4 57.9 *not now a QB in the NFL
2011 Jake Locker (1) 54.0 (55.4) 53/35 30 23 57.5
2011 Colin Kaepernick (2) 58.2 (64.9) 82/24 57 47 59.9
2011 Ryan Mallett (3) 57.8 (64.7) 69/24 13 6 53.1
2011 Ricky Stanzi (5) 59.8 (64.1) 56/31 0 0 0.0
2011 Nathan Enderle (5) 54.6 (56.7) 74/60 0 0 0.0
2011 Tyrod Taylor (6) 57.2 (59.7) 44/20 22 8 66.0
2012 Ryan Lindley (6) 55.5 (53.0) 90/47 9 6 50.8
2012 BJ Coleman (7) 57.4 (60.9) 52/32 0 0 0.0
2013 BJ Daniels (7) 57.3 (56.9) 52/39 0 0 0.0
2014 Logan Thomas (4) 55.5 (56.5) 52/39 2 0 11.1
2014 Tom Savage (4) 56.8 (61.2) 37/19 2 0 52.6
2014 Garrett Gilbert (6) 58.7 (66.5) 49/45 0 0 0.0
2015 Trevor Siemian (7) 58.9 (58.2) 27/24 0 0 0.0

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

 

Agree and this is why I can't trash guys like Josh Allen. Maybe he learns a different offense in the pros and improves. Same with Lamar Jackson.

 

Maybe I haven't watched enough tape on Jackson, but I don't see them as the same type of player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Generally speaking you shouldn't bother looking at college stats as a way of projecting how a QB will do in the NFL.

Unless they play in a friendly system designed for success yet only complete 57% of their passes.

 

Also, for college completion % it’s not really translatable if the % is high (Tebow, Manuel). It’s usually if the college % is low (Vick, Leaf).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What do you suggest then?  Ouija board?

 

 

No.

 

Look at mechanics, footwork and decision-making skills.  Look at work ethic.  If the Wonderlic score is 15 or less, pass on the kid.

 

None of these QBs are facing NFL defenses.  Most of them aren't facing more than 2-3 future NFL defensemen in any given game.  Most of them are throwing the ball to receivers who won't sniff the NFL.  This is why college stats are worthless.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

Exactly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Good college completion % does not predict good qb in the pros but bad completion % is usually not a good sign.

 

That's kind of my take on the subject - again, with the caveat I am not a watcher of college football.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×