Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Lurker]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

If you aren't getting one of the top two I say pass. Unless you think you are getting a Derek Carr, who everyone undervalued.  

I agree.   Forcing the QB pick gets you JP Losman and EJ Manual.   I'd rather have two stout additions at other positions and a vet FA QB than that scenario...

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Another option is to move up for Rosen and sign McCown.  Mc is a good quarterback but can't stay healthy.  He'll hopefully last at least a half season and he'll be productive.  Also, Mc will come cheap.  Step two is to bring in some offensive linemen to help protect them (and get rid of Mills, the turnstile, in that regard).

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Eli finished at 60.8% and you can’t count his freshman year as a “year.” He threw 16 passes. He also finished at 62.4% as a senior which showed significant improvement. 

 

Vick was an average NFL QB. If it weren’t for his running ability, he wouldn’t even be discussed. As an NFL QB he had one season over 60% and that was his 11 game run with Philly. With Atlanta, he was a 53.8% passer. Abysmal.

 

Matt Ryan is an interesting case. However again, he was basically a 60% passer in college at 59.9. Career but he did have a down senior year in regards to completion %. He’s definitely bucked the stereotype albeit barely. 

 

Tom Brady was at 61.9%. That’s basically 62%. He shouldn’t even be in the conversation.

 

All of these players had much better college completion %’s than the 57% Lamar Jackson who played in a much friendlier offense.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

I think he just meant that Rudolph has area code accuracy- which I would have to agree with.

 

 

In all fairness to accuracy stats, I spent most of 2012-2013 beating the Geno Smith drum because he was in a passing offense and had something sick like a 70% completion percentage... and look where that got me/him.

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I agree.   Forcing the QB pick gets you JP Losman and EJ Manual.   I'd rather have two stout additions at other positions and a vet FA QB than that scenario...

 

I'll give you that Losman was forcing the issue. But we traded down in 2013, so I cant agree we forced it.

 

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

 

[DCOrange]

I personally like Jackson as a prospect a lot; it certainly takes a certain willingness for risk though. He's an incredible athlete with great arm strength and he's a much better passer than he's given credit for. If you adjust for drops, his completion percentage is ahead of Darnold and on par with Rosen/Rudolph (Mayfield is wayyyy ahead of the pack). And despite not being a traditional pocket QB, Louisville's offense has more pro concepts in it than what was run at USC or either of the two Oklahoma schools. If you watch Lamar, you certainly see him sail some passes high, but you also see him make a lot of "NFL throws", throws into tight windows, and just some absolute dimes down the field.

 

I like Rudolph as a guy to target in the 4th round, but nothing higher than that. He just doesn't really have any strengths. His arm strength is probably below average. His ball placement is generally below average. His athleticism is below average. He doesn't really show the ability to work beyond his first read very often. He's just a middling prospect, like a slightly better Nathan Peterman from last year.

 

If Buffalo can't get one of the top 5 QBs (in my mind, Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar; not in that order), I wouldn't bother taking one at all until around the 4th round. There's plenty of worthy projects to take after that top 5, but they're all significantly worse prospects IMO. I don't think anyone outside of the top 5 projects as a starter in the NFL; I'd give Rudolph, Lauletta, Woodside, and Falk a snowball's chance at least, but they're far more likely to end up being backups.

[MrEpsYtown]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

Great point! That where I am. Try like hell to get up for Rosen, Darnold. Otherwise let the board fall to us. 

[MAJBobby]

If those are my two options going Rudolph 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I've watched pretty much all of these QB's games for the past 2 years now, I'm not a fan of rushing QB's at all but I think Lamar Jackson in this offense that Daboll will bring can be dynamic. I've watched Jackson from a running 1st QB to this season where he stands in the pocket and goes through progressions, when Jackson does run the guy lowers his shoulder and bowls people over, I don't want my franchise guy doing that but it shows the toughness. He has a big time arm. 

[Gordio]

45 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I personally like Jackson as a prospect a lot; it certainly takes a certain willingness for risk though. He's an incredible athlete with great arm strength and he's a much better passer than he's given credit for. If you adjust for drops, his completion percentage is ahead of Darnold and on par with Rosen/Rudolph (Mayfield is wayyyy ahead of the pack). And despite not being a traditional pocket QB, Louisville's offense has more pro concepts in it than what was run at USC or either of the two Oklahoma schools. If you watch Lamar, you certainly see him sail some passes high, but you also see him make a lot of "NFL throws", throws into tight windows, and just some absolute dimes down the field.

 

I like Rudolph as a guy to target in the 4th round, but nothing higher than that. He just doesn't really have any strengths. His arm strength is probably below average. His ball placement is generally below average. His athleticism is below average. He doesn't really show the ability to work beyond his first read very often. He's just a middling prospect, like a slightly better Nathan Peterman from last year.

 

If Buffalo can't get one of the top 5 QBs (in my mind, Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar; not in that order), I wouldn't bother taking one at all until around the 4th round. There's plenty of worthy projects to take after that top 5, but they're all significantly worse prospects IMO. I don't think anyone outside of the top 5 projects as a starter in the NFL; I'd give Rudolph, Lauletta, Woodside, and Falk a snowball's chance at least, but they're far more likely to end up being backups.

 

 

Interesting insight on the QBs.  Much appreciated. 

 

I don't see how Rudolph gets out of the first round.  I hear the chatter about arm strength, I am no expert but I just don't see it.  I have watched 8 or 9 of his games last year & it looks like he could make all the throws.  At least to me it looks like he has a better arm than Mayfield from the games I have watched. 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

Interesting insight on the QBs.  Much appreciated. 

 

I don't see how Rudolph gets out of the first round.  I hear the chatter about arm strength, I am no expert but I just don't see it.  I have watched 8 or 9 of his games last year & it looks like he could make all the throws.  At least to me it looks like he has a better arm than Mayfield from the games I have watched. 

 

I think Mayfield has below average arm strength too, but his ball placement is leagues ahead of Rudolph from what I've seen. I guess we'll see what happens with Rudolph, but it honestly kinda blows my mind that there's even a discussion about him possibly going in the 1st round. I thought he was a good sleeper candidate when there were rumors that he might enter the draft last year, but he just isn't a first round prospect, especially in a class that's so deep at QB. I think it would be pretty surprising if he ever turns into a starting QB; not impossible, but surprising. Like I said, I just don't see anything with him that you can hang your hat on. I put him on the same tier as the smaller school guys like Logan Woodside and Kyle Lauletta, but even then, those two at least have very good/borderline elite ball placement. Rudolph just isn't really good at anything.

[Lofton80]

I worry about Jackson's accuracy and I also worry that his thin frame will not allow for his running like he did in college.  

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I think Mayfield has below average arm strength too, but his ball placement is leagues ahead of Rudolph from what I've seen. I guess we'll see what happens with Rudolph, but it honestly kinda blows my mind that there's even a discussion about him possibly going in the 1st round. I thought he was a good sleeper candidate when there were rumors that he might enter the draft last year, but he just isn't a first round prospect, especially in a class that's so deep at QB. I think it would be pretty surprising if he ever turns into a starting QB; not impossible, but surprising. Like I said, I just don't see anything with him that you can hang your hat on. I put him on the same tier as the smaller school guys like Logan Woodside and Kyle Lauletta, but even then, those two at least have very good/borderline elite ball placement. Rudolph just isn't really good at anything.

Really interesting stuff!! Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts as the draft approaches.

[DCOrange]

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Really interesting stuff!! Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts as the draft approaches.

I'll hopefully be around! Never posted here before, but I've watched more of this year's QB class than probably the last 5 classes combined since I thought this was certainly the year that Buffalo would finally be aggressive in getting one.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I'll hopefully be around! Never posted here before, but I've watched more of this year's QB class than probably the last 5 classes combined since I thought this was certainly the year that Buffalo would finally be aggressive in getting one.

Please post more!! There is always room for informed posters.

 

There are a handful of guys here that do a lot of scouting leading up to the draft and provide great info. It makes for interesting discussion because their evaluation of the prospect is so much more developed than the rest of us. I know that I’ve learned a lot about certain prospects from this board. 

[billykay]

6 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I just don't believe Rudolph has the arm talent to succeed in Buffalo and having guys like Washington / Ateman / Carson, I'm not sure there's a QB who did less with more than Rudolph.

I don't think there is anything wrong with his arm strength. I saw him throw effortlessly 55 yds in the air for a td, in one game. So, he isn't Elway. So what.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Give me the guy with the most upside, Lamar Jackson. 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, billykay said:

I don't think there is anything wrong with his arm strength. I saw him throw effortlessly 55 yds in the air for a td, in one game. So, he isn't Elway. So what.

It's not the distance that's an issue with Rudolph; it's the velocity. He can get the passes down the field (though he has a tendency to underthrow them when he misses). But his passes float too much IMO; think of the Peterman INT against Jacksonville for example. The ball just hangs in the air too long on those throws to the perimeter.

 

I don't agree with the "nobody did less with more" take...Rudolph did throw for what, 5,000ish yards and around 40 TDs while rarely turning the ball over? That offense was insanely good this season. But I do think it's mostly to do with who he was throwing to and the scheme that he was playing in rather than Rudolph's actual skillset. Just a ton of one-read throws to wide open guys and just throwing it up for his amazing receivers to go get the ball when they weren't wide open.

[buffaloboyinATL]

4 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

if one of the guys we likes starts to get towards #10, i dont see any reason why we wouldnt trade one of the 1st and one of the 2nds to go up and get him

 

it would still leave us with another first round and second round pick

Pretty sure we would still need to use both firsts to get up around pick #10.

[Bray Wyatt]

52 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Pretty sure we would still need to use both firsts to get up around pick #10.

 

What did the chiefs trade us last year? this years first and a 4th that year? Isnt that around the same spot we are trading from this year? If so, I always thought that a second this year is roughly the same as a first next year.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

What did the chiefs trade us last year? this years first and a 4th that year? Isnt that around the same spot we are trading from this year? If so, I always thought that a second this year is roughly the same as a first next year.

1st, 3rd, and future 1st

 

BUF gave up #10

KC gave up #27, #91, and #22 the following year.

Edited January 18, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

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