ESPN 2018 NFL Draft QB Primer: Kiper & McShay Breakdown & Analysis

[BigDingus]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21836489/2018-nfl-draft-quarterback-class-preview-background-scouting-reports-pro-fits

 

This is a breakdown of the top 4 QB's along with a few notable others. It goes into detail about their 2017 season, their stats, "who is this guy & why should we care?" along with "what does the NFL think about ____?" 

Then Kiper & McShay seperately give their opinion on each QB's ranking of their position, coupled with what they think their overall draft position should be. They then discuss which teams are probably looking to draft a QB in the first round. Along with the Bills, they have:

Pick No. 1 & 4 - Browns

Pick No. 2 - Giants

Pick No. 5. - Broncos

Pick No. 6 - Jets

Pick No. 11 - Dolphins

Pick No. 13 - Redskins

Pick No. 15 - Cardinals

Pick No. 16 - Ravens

(Projected) Pick No. 22 & 24 - Bills

(Projected) Pick No. 27 - Jaguars

(Projected) Pick No. 28 - Saints

(Projected) Pick No. 29 - Steelers

(Projected) Pick No. 31 - Vikings

(Projected) Pick No. 32 - Patriots

 

Kiper has them ranked:                                                 

1. Josh Rosen (No. 4 overall prospect)

2. Sam Darnold (No. 5 overall prospect)

3. Josh Allen (No. 11 overall prospect)

4. Baker Mayfield (No. 13 overall prospect)

 

McShay has them ranked:

1. Josh Rosen (No. 1 overall prospect)

2. Sam Darnold (No. 3 overall prospect)

3. Josh Allen (No. 15 overall prospect)

4. Baker Mayfield (No. 27 overall prospect)

 

They both have Lamar Jackson ranked as the 7th best QB without saying who 5 & 6 are, while honorable mentions go to Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk & Riley Ferguson.

 

When it comes to the Bills, they say "It sure doesn't look as if the Bills are sold on Tyrod Taylor. And while they believe in Nathan Peterman to a certain degree, they also could jump if they find someone they like better in this intriguing class."

It's already obvious from what we already know, coupled with what the article details about the NFL's thoughts on these guys that Rosen & Darnold aren't going to be a possibility for the Bills. Josh Allen & Baker Mayfield could possibly slide, but knowing how teams love to reach on draft day I highly doubt it. But at least with those 2 there's a viable chance the Bills could trade to move up, and not have to pay a King's ransom. I mean look at how much the Bears gave up just to move ahead one spot for Trubisky... that just shows how desperate teams get when wanting to draft a QB. 

And with the teams listed in front of us, the Browns and Giants are 100% going to grab a QB, with the Broncos & Jets likely going for one as well. The Cardinals situation is unclear, but even so it's unlikely Palmer/Arians/Fitzgerald will be there much longer. The Redskins are 50/50 with Cousins, so that's a toss up too. I don't see the Dolphins giving up on Tannehill, or the Ravens on Flacco just yet, so they're not worries to me. 

If we don't snag one of these top 4 guys, I'm fine with taking a flyer on one of the other prospects in the later rounds as long as they don't expect him to be come out & start right away. I really just hope it's not Mason Rudolph or Riley Ferguson. 

Anyway, thought I'd share the article as it's pretty interesting and a lot to think about. 

 

[NewEra]

Thanks for the share.  Looking more and more like TT is our starting QB next season imo.  If we go the FA route I just pray Sam Brokenford isn’t our choice. 

[njbuff]

I could see the Bills gambling on Teddy Bridgewater and hope they hit a home run there. When heathy Bridgewater is a much better fit for the Bills offense.

 

And to cover their tracks, the Bills would probably take one of the QB's they like in the second or third round.

 

If Bridgewater is healthy in 2018, it could be a major coupe for Buffalo.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[GunnerBill]

I can't tell you where I have them on my overall big board because my overall big board isn't yet built.  I am too far behind on a lot of other position groups.  I can give you my QB rankings which are currently broadly:

 

1. Josh Rosen - top 5 grade

2. Sam Darnold - mid 1st round grade

3. Baker Mayfield - mid/late 1st round grade

4. Mason Rudolph - 1st/2nd borderline

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

5. Lamar Jackson - late 2nd round grade

6. Josh Allen - 3rd round grade

7. Luke Falk - 4th round grade

 

Haven't looked at enough of anyone else to include them before people start chucking other names at me.  They are the 7 I feel I have watched enough tape to form a solid opinion on.  I have some opinions on some of the later names but they are just off the tv opinions not evaluations.  

 

 

EDIT:  I'll explain again my grades do not necessarily correspond with where I think they will be picked.  Nor do they correspond with where I have ranked them in the whole class.  A mid first means I have a player's tape graded in the middle of the objective first round scale that I have every year for each round.  

Edited January 5, 2018 by GunnerBill

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

I could see the Bills gambling on Teddy Bridgewater and hope they hit a home run there. When heathy Bridgewater is a much better fit for the Bills offense.

 

And to cover their tracks, the Bills would probably take one of the QB's they like in the second or third round.

 

If Bridgewater is healthy in 2018, it could be a major coupe for Buffalo.

 

 

If they go the Free Agent route, I think Teddy Bridgewater would be a smart choice--he's young, has proven he can play really well at this level, and he adds the extra dynamic of being able to run when needed. If he ends up in Buffalo, that would be a good thing.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

 

If they go the Free Agent route, I think Teddy Bridgewater would be a smart choice--he's young, has proven he can play really well at this level, and he adds the extra dynamic of being able to run when needed. If he ends up in Buffalo, that would be a good thing.

 

Bridgewater has some mobility and can get out of trouble but he is a drop back passer.  He is not a running Quarterback.  Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles all run more than Teddy Bridgewater.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for the share.  Looking more and more like TT is our starting QB next season imo.  If we go the FA route I just pray Sam Brokenford isn’t our choice. 

 

..just say no to Sam (re-assembly required)......Keenum & Bridgewater stay with Vikes IMO......good Lord NO to Cousins.......FA route may be 2nd (allegedly what Andy wants) for Alex Smith......don't see this gang surrendering draft capital to move up so I'd bet Rudolph is their (safe non-sexy) pick in the 1st along with OL or DL.......

[jr1]

they'll probably take Rudolph

[Bangarang]

I really don’t want to be the team that takes Allen. That looks like a huge mistake waiting to happen 

[TigerJ]

Alex Smith

[Yav]

Cousins. Perfect fit and if you look at his numbers and who his WR are in Washington you'll realize he did a lot with nothing. He lost his top 2 guys and still had a great year. 

 

You put Cousins on the Bills with Shady, Clay and Benj. and you'll have a damn good offense. 

Keep them draft picks and fill the D-line, O-line and LB's and get Shady a real deal backup and you're talking a true contender.

[MAJBobby]

Pretty surprised Lamar Jackson Declared

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Pretty surprised Lamar Jackson Declared

I'll take him in 2nd. He's somewhere right now working on his footwork. This guy wants to be GREAT! I want someone who wants to be great and have the talent/work ethic to be great.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, the skycap said:

I'll take him in 2nd. He's somewhere right now working on his footwork. This guy wants to be GREAT! I want someone who wants to be great and have the talent/work ethic to be great.

 

He will go in the first. Really should have stayed though one more year. 

 

Now he needs to go to a team with a top end QB coach and somewhere that will sit him a bit (whats best for him anyway immediately and likely best for the team long term too)

[Maybe Someday]

10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

And with the teams listed in front of us, the Browns and Giants are 100% going to grab a QB, with the Broncos & Jets likely going for one as well. The Cardinals situation is unclear, but even so it's unlikely Palmer/Arians/Fitzgerald will be there much longer. The Redskins are 50/50 with Cousins, so that's a toss up too. I don't see the Dolphins giving up on Tannehill, or the Ravens on Flacco just yet, so they're not worries to me. 
 

 

Thanks for posting.  FYI, both Palmer and Arians just announced their retirements earlier this week so AZ is likely in the QB hunt as well. 

It'll be interesting to see how these ranking change as the offseason kicks into full gear and these guys are nitpicked over every little detail. 

 

[Tatonka68]

21 minutes ago, Yav said:

Cousins. Perfect fit and if you look at his numbers and who his WR are in Washington you'll realize he did a lot with nothing. He lost his top 2 guys and still had a great year. 

 

You put Cousins on the Bills with Shady, Clay and Benj. and you'll have a damn good offense. 

Keep them draft picks and fill the D-line, O-line and LB's and get Shady a real deal backup and you're talking a true contender.

Cousins is a BIG mistake, a CAP crusher and way too expensive compared to his gameplay/

[Dr. Who]

I would spend a lot to trade up for Rosen, quite a bit for Darnold, actually quite a bit for Mayfield.  Only Mayfield is going to be potentially within reach.  I would not trade up for anyone else.  A second rounder for Alex Smith, okay, if you also draft a young qb to groom with real upside.  If you get Smith, I can see taking a shot with Jackson.  Rudolph is my least favorite of the top fellas, so I rather expect he is who we choose.  I agree with those who think Cousins will not play up to his price tag.

 

I pushed for Mahomes and Watson last year and lots of fellas were scoffing and talking about the 2018 qb class.  Now that it's here, the qb needy teams are multiplying and we're going to have to spend the draft capital we picked up to get someone no better than equal to what we could have had at #10 last year.  (Not dismissing how good a player Tre White is, but really, think how happy SF is right now.  You get the franchise qb, the whole team thrives.  Unless you're the Colts and can't put an oline together.)  

 

 

[BillsVet]

I don't see TT in their future. They can get out of his contract after the season, perhaps even trade him for a late round pick if they pick up the option.

 

I suspect they'll bring in a veteran and continue developing Peterman.  McD is going to push to improve the defensive front 7 and they certainly need to improve their OL. Spending lots of draft capital on moving up for a QB isn't out of the question but unlikely considering the roster is extremely thin.

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

I could see the Bills gambling on Teddy Bridgewater and hope they hit a home run there. When heathy Bridgewater is a much better fit for the Bills offense.

 

And to cover their tracks, the Bills would probably take one of the QB's they like in the second or third round.

 

If Bridgewater is healthy in 2018, it could be a major coupe for Buffalo.

 

Bridgewater is a meh QB. I would rather keep Taylor...at least there are no injury question marks there