So does anyone BELIEVE we will make the Playoffs?

[Boatdrinks]

10 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

So we DO want the Chiefs to win the division is what you're saying? Trying to figure out who would be better wining the West makes my head hurt.

A lot of fans seem to think we want KC to lose, possibly due to loss to LAC. Some due to the draft which has nothing to do with the playoffs obviously. The Bills can win a head to head ( two team ) tie with KC, but lose on SOV if KC is involved in a 3 way tie with BUF and another team. The Bills win a SOV tiebreak in a 3 way tie involving LAC. It seems a taller order to expect TEN to drop their 3 remaining games than to finish 9-7 with a loss to JAX involved. So yes, the Bills playoff chances may be improved with KC winning the west and beating the Chargers on Saturday. The Chargers would likely finish 9-7. If you think the Titans are more likely to lose out and finish 8-8, then you'd probably want the Chargers to win the west . 

[BigDingus]

36 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

A lot of fans seem to think we want KC to lose, possibly due to loss to LAC. Some due to the draft which has nothing to do with the playoffs obviously. The Bills can win a head to head ( two team ) tie with KC, but lose on SOV if KC is involved in a 3 way tie with BUF and another team. The Bills win a SOV tiebreak in a 3 way tie involving LAC. It seems a taller order to expect TEN to drop their 3 remaining games than to finish 9-7 with a loss to JAX involved. So yes, the Bills playoff chances may be improved with KC winning the west and beating the Chargers on Saturday. The Chargers would likely finish 9-7. If you think the Titans are more likely to lose out and finish 8-8, then you'd probably want the Chargers to win the west . 

 

Thanks, that makes far more sense now. It'd probably help if between CBS, NFL.com, ESPN, and NBC (and the other outlets) could get their playoff seating right & explain tiebreakers better. Half of them were still showing the Ravens this morning as the 6th seed, and even tonight on MNF they showed that as well. Super confusing.

[Big C]

Assuming the Ravens win out with their easy schedule:

 

Looks like if the Chargers lose to KC and then win out AND the Titans beat either the Rams or 49ers but lose to the Jags we would win the three-way tie there. 

 

In that same situation except the Chargers beat KC, KC has the tiebreaker in the three-way tie there. If the Titans lose out, we would obviously have the head-to-head over the Chiefs.

 

Hard to say which scenario is preferable right now, but we are looking for either Tennessee to lose and the Chiefs win or Tennessee wins and the Chiefs lose. Otherwise we'll need the Ravens to lose to either the Colts or Bengals to kick the three-way tiebreakers back in. However in no practical scenario can the Titans beat the Jags. Don't think they can anyhow.

[BigDingus]

14 minutes ago, Big C said:

Assuming the Ravens win out with their easy schedule:

 

Looks like if the Chargers lose to KC and then win out AND the Titans beat either the Rams or 49ers but lose to the Jags we would win the three-way tie there. 

 

In that same situation except the Chargers beat KC, KC has the tiebreaker in the three-way tie there. If the Titans lose out, we would obviously have the head-to-head over the Chiefs.

 

Hard to say which scenario is preferable right now, but we are looking for either Tennessee to lose and the Chiefs win or Tennessee wins and the Chiefs lose. Otherwise we'll need the Ravens to lose to either the Colts or Bengals to kick the three-way tiebreakers back in. However in no practical scenario can the Titans beat the Jags. Don't think they can anyhow.

 

So really the easiest way would just be hoping that somehow the Ravens choke to one of those teams they should beat, and then whatever happens with the Chiefs & Chargers would determine the rest?

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

A lot of fans seem to think we want KC to lose, possibly due to loss to LAC. Some due to the draft which has nothing to do with the playoffs obviously. The Bills can win a head to head ( two team ) tie with KC, but lose on SOV if KC is involved in a 3 way tie with BUF and another team. The Bills win a SOV tiebreak in a 3 way tie involving LAC. It seems a taller order to expect TEN to drop their 3 remaining games than to finish 9-7 with a loss to JAX involved. So yes, the Bills playoff chances may be improved with KC winning the west and beating the Chargers on Saturday. The Chargers would likely finish 9-7. If you think the Titans are more likely to lose out and finish 8-8, then you'd probably want the Chargers to win the west . 

 

There is a scenario by which the Bills win a 3 way tie with KC and TEN, but it depends which games people win.  The three way 9-7 tiebreakers are still VERY subject to change from playing around with the ESPN machine.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

If KC vs LAC is a TIE, that is  one less win but one less loss.   is that an advantage?  

 

IIRC the last team that had a tie won a tie breaker because of it. 

[papazoid]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

So wait, on tonight's game they brought up an info graphic of the playoff standings (this was late in the 3rd or early in the 4th), that once again showed the Bills not in 6th seed... Then the announcers talked about the Ravens being in that position, followed by discussing the Bills & the others. Wtf is going on... ESPN's own nationally televised game doesn't have updated info?

 

 

 

 

 

something  about  "common  opponents "

 

 

[BeginnersMind]

10 minutes ago, papazoid said:

 

 

something  about  "common  opponents "

 

 

It kicks in once there are 4, which there are not now, but soon will be. 

[CuddyDark]

NO. I still don't have them will winning more than 7 or 8 games.

[ProcessTheTrust]

We might win this week, almost certainly loss the next, and lose a heartbreaker week 17. 8-8 and shortly after the pain of getting so close again subsides, we'll be flooded with talk about "wow, we did so much better than expected with a depleted roster". Just wondering what else we'll have to throw in our trade up package to get a top 2 QB in the draft OR if we take our chances on Cousins.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I said it before, I'll say it again: i concede NOTHING to the paytoilets.

 

If they can pull off that longshot win and sweep the fish, they're IN.

 

[Scott7975]

Not really. I believe they have a chance at 9-7 but I'm not so sure they beat the Dolphins twice 

3 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

I said it before, I'll say it again: i concede NOTHING to the paytoilets.

 

If they can pull off that longshot win and sweep the fish, they're IN.

 

Someone definitely put something in your 6 pack this week haha. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Not really. I believe they have a chance at 9-7 but I'm not so sure they beat the Dolphins twice 

Someone definitely put something in your 6 pack this week haha. 

 

take a look at the last game. the defense played out of their minds. Had the offense been COMPETENT, we could have won that.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

take a look at the last game. the defense played out of their minds. Had the offense been COMPETENT, we could have won that.

 

 

Yes I know. 

[BeginnersMind]

44 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

take a look at the last game. the defense played out of their minds. Had the offense been COMPETENT, we could have won that.

 

 

 

And um, do you recall the Jets game? IF they can drop a stinker like that to the Jets, imagine what Brady and Co can do in Foxboro. 

 

I take very little from this team in terms of consistency. Coaching is better. Fundamentals are better. I like where they are headed culturally. But they do not have consistency. 

 

I worry about all 3 games.  

Edited December 12, 2017 by BeginnersMind

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

And um, do you recall the Jets game?

 

I take very little from this team in terms of consistency. Coaching is better. Fundamentals are better. I like where they are headed culturally. But the do not have consistency. 

 

I worry about all 3 games.  

 

That's your prerogative.

 

[BeginnersMind]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

That's your prerogative.

 

 

Thanks Bobby Brown. 

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

We might win this week, almost certainly loss the next, and lose a heartbreaker week 17. 8-8 and shortly after the pain of getting so close again subsides, we'll be flooded with talk about "wow, we did so much better than expected with a depleted roster". Just wondering what else we'll have to throw in our trade up package to get a top 2 QB in the draft OR if we take our chances on Cousins.

Bills draft pick isn't going to be close enough to the top 5 for a move up there. Without exorbitant cost. So they either pay it or they don't. That went out the window with a 5-2 start 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

 

something  about  "common  opponents "

 

 

Check it again today.   The NFL updated it 

 

yesterday  they were 8th,   today somehow it changed ???? 

[Shaw66]

I think the league will be embarrassed if the Bills are in the playoffs.   Now way, now how are they a playoff team.  Train wreck at QB, weak at receiver, ugly offensive line, no dominant defenders and a mediocre defense at best.  

[Jerry Christ]

No I'm a realistic fan and we will probably lose this week.

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Check it again today.   The NFL updated it 

 

yesterday  they were 8th,   today somehow it changed ???? 

Yeah, they're 6th as it currently stands.   It's because there's a 3-way tie with the Ravens and Chargers.   In that situation, head to head doesn't matter.  BIlls and Ravens have better conference records than the Chargers, and they teams they've beaten have a better aggregate record than the teams the Ravens beat.   But as soon as the Bills play the Dolphins, the Bills and Ravens will have had four common opponents, and under the common opponent tie-breaker, the Ravens will move ahead of the Bills.   

 

Bills have to go undefeated.  If they lose one, they need help.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, they're 6th as it currently stands.   It's because there's a 3-way tie with the Ravens and Chargers.   In that situation, head to head doesn't matter.  BIlls and Ravens have better conference records than the Chargers, and they teams they've beaten have a better aggregate record than the teams the Ravens beat.   But as soon as the Bills play the Dolphins, the Bills and Ravens will have had four common opponents, and under the common opponent tie-breaker, the Ravens will move ahead of the Bills.   

 

Bills have to go undefeated.  If they lose one, they need help.  

 

Oh I know that they need a lot of help.  

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the league will be embarrassed if the Bills are in the playoffs.   Now way, now how are they a playoff team.  Train wreck at QB, weak at receiver, ugly offensive line, no dominant defenders and a mediocre defense at best.  

Come on, I don't buy that at all.

If the bills make the playoffs the league will spin the first time in the playoffs in 17 years thing.

They will praise McDermott and Beane.

Guys like Kyle Williams (All-pro playing his 1st playoff game) will be a big story, among others.

[Boatdrinks]

42 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, they're 6th as it currently stands.   It's because there's a 3-way tie with the Ravens and Chargers.   In that situation, head to head doesn't matter.  BIlls and Ravens have better conference records than the Chargers, and they teams they've beaten have a better aggregate record than the teams the Ravens beat.   But as soon as the Bills play the Dolphins, the Bills and Ravens will have had four common opponents, and under the common opponent tie-breaker, the Ravens will move ahead of the Bills.   

 

Bills have to go undefeated.  If they lose one, they need help.  

Actually the Bills would need help even IF they were to go undefeated ( highly unlikely). The help they need at 9-7 isn't really of the pie in the sky variety if one looks at the remaining schedules. Either the Chiefs or Chargers will end up with a loss on Saturday. ( a tie could be helpful also I suppose) . The Ravens will get one WC spot, that isn't likely to change. The focus is on TEN. They must win only one of their remaining three , and it cannot be vs JAX. With games vs SF, LAR, and JAX they have a very tough road to close out the season. Going 1-2 in that stretch wouldn't be shocking at all. 

[BigDingus]

12 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Bills draft pick isn't going to be close enough to the top 5 for a move up there. Without exorbitant cost. So they either pay it or they don't. That went out the window with a 5-2 start 

 

Considering the Chiefs gave up a 1st round pick for the following year, and the 27th pick + a 3rd rounder in that draft just to move up to #10, I'd assume we'd have to give up even move up to the 2nd or 3rd overall pick. 

 

As of now, Cleveland picks #1...and they're 50/50 on drafting a QB with that pick. The Giants are #2, and they're DEFINITELY going QB. Our best bet may be the Colts at #3, as Luck will be returning next year (I know there's rumors saying it's all mental & the Colts might not want him, but I don't believe them). Our next best shot would be the 49ers at #4 unless they keep winning more games and move up the charts with the Broncos or the Browns (again...they have two 1st round picks) in that spot.

Buffalo is currently sitting at #15 and #21 (Chiefs spot). 
 

The #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The #2 pick is worth 2600 points. The #3 pick is worth 2200 points. The #4 pick is worth 1800 points. Lastly, the #5 pick is worth 1700 points.

The Bills two picks are worth 1050 & 800 respectively, so 1850 combined. That's good enough to move up to #4 or #5, but not enough to move to the top 3. If we throw in the 47th pick in round 2, that's an additional 430, bumping the total to 2,280, just enough to snag the #3 pick. 

 

It all depends on what teams want to play ball, and how many want a QB, as well as what other teams may be offering them. We could send both 1st rounders, a 3rd, and a 2nd in 2019, and I believe that would get things done.

[Boatdrinks]

Seems like a reasonable cost if it's not involving picks in 2019. The Bills and Chiefs spots aren't cemented as if yet. I'd be on board for paying that price for the third pick depending who is there. I wouldn't hate playing less to move up slightly for Mayfield . I'm sure many would disagree. 

[reddogblitz]

16 hours ago, joesixpack said:

I said it before, I'll say it again: i concede NOTHING to the paytoilets.

 

If they can pull off that longshot win and sweep the fish, they're IN.

 

 

That's it bud.

 

This is OUR YEAR. I'm talkin' home playoff game.

[BigDingus]

2 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

That's it bud.

 

This is OUR YEAR. I'm talkin' home playoff game.

 

So winning the division? 

I'm generally an optimistic person, but there aren't enough drugs in the world to make me THAT optimistic 

[GETTOTHE50]

TBH, i thought with the way we were playing when we were 5-2 that itbwould take us to the divisional round.

 

the addition of KB only made me more confident that it would happen.

 

but now with the injuries, Tyrods lack of progress, and with the defense not being as dominant, I unfortunately don't think it happens.

 

i have hope and I will undoubtedly be disappointed if they don't do the unspeakable.

 

In the end, im just happy this team has given us meaningful December games and actually has a playoff spot going into week 15 of the season for once 

[BeginnersMind]

5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Considering the Chiefs gave up a 1st round pick for the following year, and the 27th pick + a 3rd rounder in that draft just to move up to #10, I'd assume we'd have to give up even move up to the 2nd or 3rd overall pick. 

 

As of now, Cleveland picks #1...and they're 50/50 on drafting a QB with that pick. The Giants are #2, and they're DEFINITELY going QB. Our best bet may be the Colts at #3, as Luck will be returning next year (I know there's rumors saying it's all mental & the Colts might not want him, but I don't believe them). Our next best shot would be the 49ers at #4 unless they keep winning more games and move up the charts with the Broncos or the Browns (again...they have two 1st round picks) in that spot.

Buffalo is currently sitting at #15 and #21 (Chiefs spot). 
 

The #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The #2 pick is worth 2600 points. The #3 pick is worth 2200 points. The #4 pick is worth 1800 points. Lastly, the #5 pick is worth 1700 points.

The Bills two picks are worth 1050 & 800 respectively, so 1850 combined. That's good enough to move up to #4 or #5, but not enough to move to the top 3. If we throw in the 47th pick in round 2, that's an additional 430, bumping the total to 2,280, just enough to snag the #3 pick. 

 

It all depends on what teams want to play ball, and how many want a QB, as well as what other teams may be offering them. We could send both 1st rounders, a 3rd, and a 2nd in 2019, and I believe that would get things done.

 

Bills have a lot of holes. QB is #1 for sure but they can’t give up more than one pick to move up. 

 

Might have to gamble on a lesser move. 

[Canadian Bills Fan]

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

17 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

I've seen this somewhere before??   

[reddogblitz]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

So winning the division? 

I'm generally an optimistic person, but there aren't enough drugs in the world to make me THAT optimistic 

 

We beat Fish - very possilbe

Steelers beat Patsies** - very possible

Bills 8-6 Patsies 10-4

 

We beat them - the hard part

Bills 9-6 Patsies 10-5

 

We beat Fish again and they lose to whoever they play (any given Sunday)

Bills 10-6 Patsies 10-6

 

Not sure what the tie breaker is.  If we get there, we'll find out.

 

I concede nothing.

 

Go BILLS !!

6 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

 

In the end, im just happy this team has given us meaningful December games and actually has a playoff spot going into week 15 of the season for once 

 

We were still very much in the playoff race in week 16 last year when we lost to Fish in OT.

 

We were still very much in the playoff race in week 16 in 2014 when we lost to the Raidahs.

 

Let's see if McDermott can do what the others couldn't. Win critical games down the stretch. 

 

Go BILLS !!

 

6 hours ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Bills have a lot of holes. QB is #1 for sure but they can’t give up more than one pick to move up. 

 

Might have to gamble on a lesser move. 

 

I'm kindof thinking we need to do whatever it takes to significantly improve the QB position in the off season.  If that requires multiple picks, so be it.

 

Gamble on a lesser level on the other holes.

[RiotAct]

Pats play the Jets week 17.   I’m guessin they’ll destroy New Jersey.

[reddogblitz]

8 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Pats play the Jets week 17.   I’m guessin they’ll destroy New Jersey.

 

One would think. But one would think we'd kill the Jets.  Any given Sunday my man.

[TigerJ]

I think they probably will miss the playoffs.  It's not impossible, however.  I think next year will give us a much better idea of the potential of the McDermott coaching regime, and I also think next year is the most likely end of the playoff drought.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

We have a slim chance but I would rather see Peterman play and see what we have at QB.

[Big C]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

One would think. But one would think we'd kill the Jets.  Any given Sunday my man.

 

Sadly they have Bryce Petty to finish the season.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

2 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I think they probably will miss the playoffs.  It's not impossible, however.  I think next year will give us a much better idea of the potential of the McDermott coaching regime, and I also think next year is the most likely end of the playoff drought.  

With a good FA and a good draft I could definitely see us contending next year.