Please Critique these QBs in 1st Round since 2009

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

The two guys from 2015 are studs. Both have already helped their teams to finish the right side of .500 in their second seasons..... Mariota and Winston are good. The question is are they Matt Stafford good or are they on their way to elite. That is still to be determined.

Their trajectory is definitely promising. I just like to see where they are after 3 years, or the end of their contract, depending on starting time.

[Virgil]

I'm still not convinced on Mariotta. They don't ask him to do much and I feel he's similar to Tyrod in that he has a great running game and doesn't make the anticipatory throws.

 

When the game is on the line and he has to make it happen with his arm, turnovers tend to happen.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

So what below shows is a couple of things ... last year aside (still too soon For Goff and Wentz) .. but unless you have the overall #1 (Winston, Luck, Newton, Stafford --- no SB wins between them) ... you don't have a great chance of landing a NFL caliber (long career QB in round 1) ..(...)

Contrary ... I'll take the QB's 2nd round and beyond in the last 8 years ... Carr, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins although greater than 8 years (some guy named Brady in the 6th) .. another guy named Brees. My point is unless we trade to #1 and get OUR GUY ...(...)

 

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams (Does anyone on the Bills really want Goff??)

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

___

2014: A BANNER YEAR

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns (no longer in league)

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

___

 

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills (Enough Said)

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins (really)

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns (really x2)

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans (no longer in league)

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars (3rd team)

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings (clipboard holder)

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos (no longer in league)

___

2009:

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions

5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets (butt fumble)

17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers (no longer in league)

 

 

So you say that unless you have the #1 pick overall, you don't have a great chance of landing an NFL caliber QB. But the list that you put up shows a number of examples where a lower pick either looks promising or has shown they can play. #2 Wentz at the least looks as good or better than Goff. #2 Mariota, likewise looks as good or better than Winston. Bridgewater, before the injury, looked better than Bortles. Tannehill, before the injury this year, draws a lot of this guy sucks and Luck undeniably has talent, but the fact is at this point in their careers, Tannehill is rocking a completion percentage 3.5% higher than Luck and very similar Y/A.

 

Then you yourself note that a number of 2nd round and later QB have proved out.

 

You seem to me to be undercutting your own argument about the importance of #1 pick overall.

 

A number of folks here have done various assessments which have all come to the same conclusion:

for QB, the odds of getting a good one are highest in the first 10 (or 3, or 6, or 8) picks in the 1st round. But even there, the odds are somewhere in the 60-65% range. After that, the odds slide to about 50-50 until the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd where it's about 30% and stays there through the 4th round. (For some reason, the 5th round has traditionally been a QB desert)

 

Fundamentally, there's an element of luck involved and a strong part of getting a good QB, now that the CBA has reined the contract in, has been the willingness to take shots.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Is it just me or have there been more better QB's selected in rounds 2-7 then in the first round since 2009?

[Beast]

Why 2009?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Why 2009?

Not sure. Maybe going back an even 10 years to 2007 would have made the list look too depressing. 2007 was an epically bad QB draft.

[cage]

It blows my mind how quickly folks dismiss qbs.

 

Why does it blow your mind when you look at that list above? I don't have any problem with accumulating draft pics, no problem even picking a QB in the first round if that's who they think is best. I have EVERY problem with trading a King's ransom of picks to move up to the top 5 in a draft to take a QB. Its such a crapshoot...

Edited August 14, 2017 by cage

[C.Biscuit97]

 

He did look significantly worse than case keenum once he was given the reigns FWIW... With the same coaching and midget

He was a rookie

I thought Darnold is staying in school another year?

 

Lamar Jackson would be TT V2

 

So that leaves Rosen and his baggage or the Wyoming Cowboy Allen.

 

I think I need to watch some Wyoming football,this kid might be the Bills sleeper pick.

What is Rosen's "baggage?"

 

What if the only "top guy" is another EJ Manuel?

You have a better plan than give him a first time NFL coach as his OC and Qb coach & don't give up on him after 16 games.

 

This team could have ruined Peyton Manning with their "development."

[mannc]

What is Rosen's "baggage?

."

Having to play his college career under Jim Mora.

[BuffaloBaumer]

They are loading up to get one of the top guys in the '18 draft. I'm not convinced that Lamar Jackson will be any kind of good QB at the NFL level.

 

Anyone but Jackson and I'll be happy, i just hope we are bad enough to get one of the top 3.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2018 class should grade well??

[MAJBobby]

 

So what below shows is a couple of things ... last year aside (still too soon For Goff and Wentz) .. but unless you have the overall #1 (Winston, Luck, Newton, Stafford --- no SB wins between them) ... you don't have a great chance of landing a NFL caliber (long career QB in round 1) .. that's a 8 year lookback ... that's 19 QB's prior to last year in Round 1 (9 of which in top 10 picks) ... with the hype train in full motion those years as it is every year with QB's ... 9 of 19 are starters ... so less than 50% hit rate and 6 of 19 no longer playing ... 33% basically.

 

Contrary ... I'll take the QB's 2nd round and beyond in the last 8 years ... Carr, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins although greater than 8 years (some guy named Brady in the 6th) .. another guy named Brees. My point is unless we trade to #1 and get OUR GUY ... then not sure what all the craziness is about in the 2018 QB class .. see list below from WalterFootball.com .. yes I like Darnold and maybe Allen if in fact Big Ben comparison is true .. but again unless we grab the #1 (which I don't think we will) other teams will grab those guys before us.

 

As below clearly illustrates ... every draft is a crap shoot ... guys much smarter than all of us football wise have crapped the bed on draft day.

 

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams (Does anyone on the Bills really want Goff??)

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles

26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

___

2014: A BANNER YEAR

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns (no longer in league)

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

___

 

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills (Enough Said)

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins (really)

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns (really x2)

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans (no longer in league)

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars (3rd team)

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings (clipboard holder)

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos (no longer in league)

___

2009:

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions

5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets (butt fumble)

17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers (no longer in league)

 

Conversely here are the preview of round1 2018 QB's per

• Sam Darnold**, QB, USC

  Height: 6-4. Weight: 225.

  Projected 40 Time: 4.78.

  Projected Round (2018): 1.

  7/17/17: Darnold was very impressive as a redshirt freshman in 2016. Sources say that while they haven't studied Darnold extensively, he jumped out at them as being a potentially special quarterback. Darnold completed 67 percent of his passes in 2016 for 3,086 yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has size, a strong-enough arm and accuracy, plus led USC on a nine-game winning streak to end last season. There is buzz of him being a No. 1-overall talent at the position. Team sources say that the early feedback is that Darnold has good intangibles as well.

• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/Wyoming_logo.gif

• Josh Allen*, QB, Wyoming

  Height: 6-5. Weight: 222.

  Projected 40 Time: 4.75.

  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.

  7/17/17: Allen became a discussed prospect late in the 2016 season, but he wisely decided to return to Wyoming. He has a good skill set, and some draft analysts were projecting him high in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but one general manager told WalterFootball.com that he had Allen as a third-day prospect and thought Allen should improve before going pro. Scouts from other teams say they think Allen is a top-of-the-draft prospect and compare him to Ben Roethlisberger, so Allen could end up being a love/hate prospect. There is no doubt that he has superb physical talent to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. In 2016, Allen completed 56 percent of his passes for 3,203 yards with 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/Louisville_logo.gif

  Lamar Jackson*, QB, Louisville

  Height: 6-3. Weight: 205.

  Projected 40 Time: 4.57.

  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.

  7/17/17: Jackson set college football on fire in 2016 while winning the Heisman Trophy. He was a massive point-producer for the Cardinals. Jackson completed 56 percent of his passes for 3,543 yards with 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. He also ran for 21 touchdowns and 1,571 yards while averaging six yards per carry.

   

  Jackson has a good athletic skill set, but will need to show more accuracy and pocket-passing skills in 2017. He also faces some size concerns and needs to add weight. Teams do feel that Jackson has a ton of athletic ability and upside to grow. He also has gotten good early reviews for his character, leadership and toughness.

• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/UCLA_logo.gif

  Josh Rosen*, QB, UCLA

  Height: 6-4. Weight: 210.

  Projected 40 Time: 4.75.

  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.

  7/17/17: Rosen completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,915 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his six games of 2016 before being sidelined by shoulder surgery. Rosen is a pocket passer, but there is already talk that his character and leadership are lacking. Some team sources have told me that Rosen is disliked by a lot of teammates.

   

  Rosen had an impressive debut as a freshman, completing 60 percent of his passes for 3,670 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He showed off a powerful arm and the ability to be an NFL pocket passer. While Rosen has gotten a ton of hype, the same thing happened with Christian Hackenberg after his freshman season. Thus, Rosen still has more to prove as a junior to be a high first-rounder.

• Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php#QuCyfEcmsYR5lR2z.99

 

 

Flawed analysis. What is the percentage of ALL QBs taken in the 2nd round and later.

[SoTier]

Then you throw some money at Cousins if the FO billieves in him and draft 6 BPA's.

 

I'm not sure that Cousins is all that much better than Tannehill or Dalton. Maybe he's as good as Flacco, but the Bills sure aren't good enough on offense to support Tannehill, Dalton or Flacco. Their receivers suck. Their OL is better at run blocking than pass protection. Even legendary QBs like Brady, Manning, and Rodgers need targets and protection, much less merely mortal ones.

 

Unfortunately, the Bills are going to draft a QB in the first round in 2018 whether they have the #1 pick or the 32nd, even if the 2018 QB class stinks to high heaven. A well-hyped first round QB will put butts in the seats.

 

 

The two guys from 2015 are studs. Both have already helped their teams to finish the right side of .500 in their second seasons..... Mariota and Winston are good. The question is are they Matt Stafford good or are they on their way to elite. That is still to be determined.

 

Mark Sanchez took the Jests to the AFC Championship as a rookie and sophomore. He never progressed from where he was about in the middle of his sophomore season.

 

Josh Freeman's sophomore season saw him put up some impressive stats and end the year with a QB rating of 90+. He looked like a winner in 2010 ... and then bottom fell out.

 

Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles, and numerous other apparent franchise QBs were all hot young guns for a season or two before they crashed and burned. I'm with Buffalo Hokie13 that they've got to show that they can play competently for about 3 seasons before they got anointed as future stars.

 

 

Is it just me or have there been more better QB's selected in rounds 2-7 then in the first round since 2009?

 

^^^

Why 2009?

 

I think this has been a trend since about 2011 when Dalton went in the 2nd round. In 2012, Wilson came out of the 3rd and Cousins out of the fourth. 2013 was a dud year but in 2014, the best QB is Carr from the 2nd round. Before that, not many quality starters came out of the later rounds, just Brady (6th in 2000), Brees (2nd in 2001), and Schaub (3rd in 2004).

 

You have a better plan than give him a first time NFL coach as his OC and Qb coach & don't give up on him after 16 games.

 

This team could have ruined Peyton Manning with their "development."

 

I don't think anything would have helped him. QBs either have it or they don't, and I don't think Manuel is starter material. It's not a judgement on him as a person, just an evaluation of his talent. Just because I'm tone-deaf and can't carry a tune in a bucket doesn't make me a terrible person, just somebody who has no musical talent.

[ticketssince61]

It's too early to tell on any of the guys from '15 or '16 imo.

 

Generally speaking, the highest rate of success involves picking your QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. That's my takeaway from recent history.

 

Usually because later 1st round picks are "reaches" from teams desperate for a QB (e.g. Ponder, Tebow, ...)

 

So what below shows is a couple of things ... last year aside (still too soon For Goff and Wentz) .. but unless you have the overall #1 (Winston, Luck, Newton, Stafford --- no SB wins between them) ... you don't have a great chance of landing a NFL caliber (long career QB in round 1) .. that's a 8 year lookback ... that's 19 QB's prior to last year in Round 1 (9 of which in top 10 picks) ... with the hype train in full motion those years as it is every year with QB's ... 9 of 19 are starters ... so less than 50% hit rate and 6 of 19 no longer playing ... 33% basically.

 

Contrary ... I'll take the QB's 2nd round and beyond in the last 8 years ... Carr, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins although greater than 8 years (some guy named Brady in the 6th) .. another guy named Brees. My point is unless we trade to #1 and get OUR GUY ... then not sure what all the craziness is about in the 2018 QB class .. see list below from WalterFootball.com .. yes I like Darnold and maybe Allen if in fact Big Ben comparison is true .. but again unless we grab the #1 (which I don't think we will) other teams will grab those guys before us.

 

As below clearly illustrates ... every draft is a crap shoot ... guys much smarter than all of us football wise have crapped the bed on draft day.

 

 

They are not much smarter - I think most of the people on this board would be much better drafters than most of the GM's.

 

The problem with most GM's and coaches is that either a) they are stupid or b) they think they can outsmart everybody and end up being stupid or c) are desperate to make the big splash.

 

If you just stick to basic common sense you will do OK

[Herb62]

It is interesting on Goff and Wentz..... I have been back and done some film study on the two of them over this offseason. My conclusions were:-

 

- there is more good on Jared Goff's tape than I expected and than he I think gets credit for.

- there is more bad on Carson Wentz's tape than I expected and than the consensus view on him accepts.

 

Don't get me wrong I still liked Wentz's tape the better overall.... but a year in the consensus view seems to be "Wentz on his way to franchise status and Goff on his way to bust status" and the tape puts them much, much closer than that.

I live in LA and I would give it one more year. Clearly coaches and teams have a big impact on how any QB will do. Wentz went to a far better situation. Things have settled down out here and I think he will do much better this year. That being said I think both of these guys will be at the very least OK.

[SoCal Deek]

I have to say "thanks" to the OP for posting this. I am always amazed when I see breakdowns like this one. I've been saying for years that the NFL is going to have a QB Shortage sometime in the next few years, and that time the game is going to once again have to evolve. (It's either that or they are going to have to get better at evaluating college football talent.) It seems inevitable to me.

[stuvian]

we'd better get it right. If Mahomes is a star we'll eat crow into the next millenium

[WideRightRevenge]

So, if i'm understanding the purpose of this thread...we shouldn't TRY?

 

Let's not misinterpret ... we have been in dire need of a QB since Kelly .. the rotating door of QB's would show that ... My point was if we're not top 2 or top 3 to pick and "get our guy" .. recent history would appear to indicate a high percentage bust ... are we willing to give up the draft capital (ala what we gave up to draft Sammy at 4) .. because to move up to those slots you'll have to give up a 2019 #1 and then some ... look at past trades by others to move to those slots ... do the guys 2018 potential draft QB's shown warrant that investment?

[oldmanfan]

The two biggest crap shoots in sports are picking a QB and picking a HC (regardless of sport for the HC). All you can ask an organization to do is scout guys as thoroughly as possible, and make what they think is the best selection they can make. Then hope they're right.

[WideRightRevenge]

 

Usually because later 1st round picks are "reaches" from teams desperate for a QB (e.g. Ponder, Tebow, ...)

 

They are not much smarter - I think most of the people on this board would be much better drafters than most of the GM's.

 

The problem with most GM's and coaches is that either a) they are stupid or b) they think they can outsmart everybody and end up being stupid or c) are desperate to make the big splash.

 

If you just stick to basic common sense you will do OK

 

C'mon man .. my point is they have access to more film, more detail on the players, face to face interviews ... on site player evaluations / interviews .. .etc and then make a conscious decision to draft the player. Speaking for me .. I don't have access to that stuff so yes ... we're at 30,000 feet vs. face to face.