Potential Gillislee Replacement

[ROCBillsBeliever]

New poster, so cut me some slack...

 

With all the ruckus over letting Gilislee walk (this post is not meant to give an opinion either way; what's done is done. Moving on, now...), let's talk potential replacements in the draft. Granted, we have a very big question mark in J. Williams. Posters here--present company included--could argue all day on whether he will step up. I'm not arguing that, either; time will tell... arguing on a message board will not tell what we have in J. Williams. I'm hoping he does work out, BUT, regardless, MY pick to replace Gilly is Oklahoma's Samaje Perine. Here are my reasons:

 

1) From viewing a few highlight reels, he is clearly capable of the following:

 

-Bouncing off tacklers

-Running through LB's, CB's, and S's (Watch some tape... Can you IMAGINE the vaunted Patriot, Stephon Gilmore, attempting to tackle Perine? I would die laughing at Hoodie's expression when he proceeds to flatten Gilmore 10x in a game...).

-Stiff Arm City: Population Perine! His use of stiff-arms looks natural and fluid, NOT running upright and putting a hand out there, but throwing an arm if and when necessary, in stride, and while maintaining balance.

-Incredible contact balance, coupled with an innate ability to recover from glancing tackles.

-One-cut runner, fitting for the Dennison zone-blocking scheme, and similar to Gilly-style.

-I would be concerned about his wonderlic score... the guy clearly doesn't know the definition of the phrase "give up"... Fail on the wonderlic... WIN on the locomotive-train-that-pancakes-LB's... I'll take the win...

-As a strong short-yardage back, he provides an excellent compliment to Shady.

 

Evidence (please watch before shooting down these claims...):

 

 

 

 

2) Walter Football ranks Perine as their 9th best RB, and they have him going between the 3rd and 5th rounds:

 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2017RB.php

 

-We are told (okay... here's some speculation... fillet my freaking innards for allowing a hint of it to potentially destroy my argument!) that this is a deep class at RB... That's my only speculation...

 

-That aside, there is ample evidence that the RB position is severely undervalued in today's NFL, providing for a potential drop into Walter Football's "worst case" scenario of Perine going in the 5th round.

 

-The Pats have 6 RB's under contract, and the following picks: Two 3rd's, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th... I HIGHLY doubt they will steal Perine out from under us with either of their 3rds or a 4th. Yeah, they don't need anybody to win another ring... they could draft ME in the 3rd, and still win... Point being: it's highly unlikely they will scorch us on this one. I'm praying that's the case!

 

-We have 3 (THREE) 5th round picks... We can use one on Perine, and let him and J. Williams duke it out for RB 2.

 

 

I welcome insights and comments. PLEASE don't hate on the speculation that this is a deep RB class... I feel that my argument is sound. Thanks.

Edited April 26, 2017 by ROCBillsBeliever

[KellyToughII]

Damn Straight! My man right there! I would LOVE to see Perine in a Bills uni. "experts" say he can't cut good, BS. They say he isn't fast...BS. Can you imagine what he can do with the holes our OL makes? Watching him at OU reminded me somewhat of Emmitt Smith.

Edited April 26, 2017 by KellyToughII

[starrymessenger]

If you're a DB gettin in his way is a recipe for a bad day.

[Watkins_deep]

Hes a good 5 th rd pick. He reminds me of bigger gilleslie

[Haplo848]

I didn't get all the way through, but he's got a really impressive highlight reel. For the people who might have more experience with him, can he catch or pass block at all? Or is he purely a one dimensional RB? Also, I saw he set the rushing record for his school. Is he overworked? How long can his body hold up running like that?

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Another quick note on the stiff-arm / upright runner point: I have seen some posts about Texas RB D'Onta Foreman being a good fit for the Bills (i.e. One-cut back, good in short-yardage, BIG back). All of these estimates are true, from the tape of him I've watched; HOWEVER, Foreman--as compared to Perine--has the following flaws (some physical; some "hype-imposed" by draftniks):

 

-Upright runner. Due to his height + running style, he is easier to tackle than the low-running / bulldozer-style Perine.

-Too "stiff" of a stiff-arm. Defenders see it coming and avoid it. Watch his tape.

-Ranked higher by many draftniks (Walter Football has him at 6th best RB), meaning we may have to use our 3rd for him... I want that 3rd for a CD/S/WR!

 

I don't think he would be as good of a value pick for us, as he would likely require a higher pick than Perine, and the upright running makes me wary that he would be an easier tackle for LB's / DB's. Just my two cents.

[Watkins_deep]

Foreman has fred taylor like ability

[ROCBillsBeliever]

I didn't get all the way through, but he's got a really impressive highlight reel. For the people who might have more experience with him, can he catch or pass block at all? Or is he purely a one dimensional RB? Also, I saw he set the rushing record for his school. Is he overworked? How long can his body hold up running like that?

 

Hap: Good questions!

 

-He did display good hands and a surprising catch radius on a few plays I saw. I'm also not as concerned with drafting him as a pass catching back. We have a known--and HOF caliber--quantity in Shady. Remember: I'm not advocating drafting him as Shady's replacement, but as his compliment.

 

-Good catch on the rushing record. In response, keep in mind that he was splitting time with Joe Mixon. OU had two excellent backs, and clearly Mixon got a lot of carries, too. If Perine was the featured back throughout his career, I would be more concerned about tread on the tires. I think he should be alright in that department.

 

-The other positive in running "behind" Mixon is that Perine hasn't gotten as much hype / limelight. This could lead to further de-valuation of him, as a prospect, which would help drop him to us in the 5th. All good things

[starrymessenger]

Eric Dickerson was the most upright runner I've ever seen.

[Haplo848]

 

Hap: Good questions!

 

-He did display good hands and a surprising catch radius on a few plays I saw. I'm also not as concerned with drafting him as a pass catching back. We have a known--and HOF caliber--quantity in Shady. Remember: I'm not advocating drafting him as Shady's replacement, but as his compliment.

 

-Good catch on the rushing record. In response, keep in mind that he was splitting time with Joe Mixon. OU had two excellent backs, and clearly Mixon got a lot of carries, too. If Perine was the featured back throughout his career, I would be more concerned about tread on the tires. I think he should be alright in that department.

 

-The other positive in running "behind" Mixon is that Perine hasn't gotten as much hype / limelight. This could lead to further de-valuation of him, as a prospect, which would help drop him to us in the 5th. All good things

You mention that you're not concerned with drafting a pass catching back, but I was thinking more of the problem that Mark Ingram down in NO had, at least early in his career. He was having trouble getting onto the field in the NFL because he was completely one dimensional, so other teams knew that when he was on the field, it was going to be a run play. Everything I saw in those highlights was him as a runner. Is that because he's not good in the passing game at all? If he's out there during a passing play, is he going to be able to be an asset in some way, whether it's as an additional blocker or as an outlet? Or will he be a liability on passing plays? Or not on the field at all for them?

 

Just like you said, I'm not worried about him replacing Shady in the passing game. But if Shady's hurt or needs a breather, would we be able to pass at all with Perine out there? That's what I was asking about.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

You mention that you're not concerned with drafting a pass catching back, but I was thinking more of the problem that Mark Ingram down in NO had, at least early in his career. He was having trouble getting onto the field in the NFL because he was completely one dimensional, so other teams knew that when he was on the field, it was going to be a run play. Everything I saw in those highlights was him as a runner. Is that because he's not good in the passing game at all? If he's out there during a passing play, is he going to be able to be an asset in some way, whether it's as an additional blocker or as an outlet? Or will he be a liability on passing plays? Or not on the field at all for them?

 

Just like you said, I'm not worried about him replacing Shady in the passing game. But if Shady's hurt or needs a breather, would we be able to pass at all with Perine out there? That's what I was asking about.

 

Ah, yeah, that is a good point. Perine did display some catching ability on tape, as I said, but I don't believe that was how OU used him, primarily. Mixon was more of the do-everything back, so you may be right in that Perine could be an indicator of a run-only play. He is strong enough, and has shown potential as a blocking back in pass-pro, and--despite the fact that we have Demarco and Tolbert--could be used as a FB or a one-cut option in two-back sets.

 

You are right in that it may take him a year to work his way in, but I see a 5th round RB--given that we also have J. Williams--as good draft spot to bring in someone who could win that RB2 / change-of-pace spot, provide depth if Shady is injured, and who could eventually be the full-time RB2, if J. Williams or a futre addition ends up stepping in for Shady when he retires. You don't take Perine to be the RB1, unless you want to be like NE last year, where they had a bruiser--Blount--who could cut a bit as RB1. We're just set up with a completely different style of RB1 because of the luxury of having a back as good as Shady.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Eric Dickerson was the most upright runner I've ever seen.

OJ, Eddie George and Antione Smith were as well and had some level of success up to record shattering success.

[starrymessenger]

OJ, Eddie George and Antione Smith were as well and had some level of success up to record shattering success.

Yeah, staying lower to the ground does make a lot of sense mechanically and conceptually but there are many notable exceptions to the rule. And as a comparison to Perine wasn't Campbell fairly upright (except when he was about to send somebody not named Tatum into an alternate universe) and what about the Nigerian Nightmare.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

OJ, Eddie George and Antione Smith were as well and had some level of success up to record shattering success.

 

 

Eric Dickerson was the most upright runner I've ever seen.

 

I'm not saying a superlative talent like any that you mentioned can't be successful, upright runners in the NFL, but to say Foreman is as talented as OJ, George, Smith, or Dickerson would be a bit of a stretch. I'm Venn-diagraming 5th round pick value with best available talent with need for a one-cut, Gilly-style, punch #2-to-Shady's-punch #1. That's where I'm getting Perine: best match for all three categories. Foreman would likely require a 3rd or 4th, due to hype / perceived value. He may end up a better back, but I'm only looking to spend a 5th here. Follow me?

 

 

 

I'm not saying a superlative talent like any that you mentioned can't be successful, upright runners in the NFL, but to say Foreman is as talented as OJ, George, Smith, or Dickerson would be a bit of a stretch. I'm Venn-diagraming 5th round pick value with best available talent with need for a one-cut, Gilly-style, punch #2-to-Shady's-punch #1. That's where I'm getting Perine: best match for all three categories. Foreman would likely require a 3rd or 4th, due to hype / perceived value. He may end up a better back, but I'm only looking to spend a 5th here. Follow me?

 

In other words, an argument without given constraints is blather, and doesn't further an idea because it is inherently too broad and open for misinterpretation. I'm only arguing within my aforementioned constraints, nothing more.

[Haplo848]

 

Ah, yeah, that is a good point. Perine did display some catching ability on tape, as I said, but I don't believe that was how OU used him, primarily. Mixon was more of the do-everything back, so you may be right in that Perine could be an indicator of a run-only play. He is strong enough, and has shown potential as a blocking back in pass-pro, and--despite the fact that we have Demarco and Tolbert--could be used as a FB or a one-cut option in two-back sets.

 

You are right in that it may take him a year to work his way in, but I see a 5th round RB--given that we also have J. Williams--as good draft spot to bring in someone who could win that RB2 / change-of-pace spot, provide depth if Shady is injured, and who could eventually be the full-time RB2, if J. Williams or a futre addition ends up stepping in for Shady when he retires. You don't take Perine to be the RB1, unless you want to be like NE last year, where they had a bruiser--Blount--who could cut a bit as RB1. We're just set up with a completely different style of RB1 because of the luxury of having a back as good as Shady.

 

Eh, "some catching ability" is something to work with, and he's got the body type to be a good pass blocker, if trained for it. Give him some coaching and I'm guessing he'd at the very least eventually be fine in the passing game. His run game ability is obviously very good. I'm sold. If he's there in the 5th, I'd be more than happy if he was the pick.

[starrymessenger]

 

Johnny two times? I got your point the first time. Even before.

If it makes you feel any better looks like your boy could even be an upgrade to Tolbert.

[Chuck Wagon]

I'm not impressed with Perine. I think he feasted against some bad Ds, but OSU bottled him up pretty easily. Mixon, on the other hand, put the fear of god in whenever he touched the ball.

[thunderingsquid]

I'm confident that you put a good producer in college with decent character behind our line and they will do very well when we need to spell Shady.

[NewEraBills]

I'm a Perine and Foreman fan in terms of mid round value. I see both going in that 3-4 range.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

New poster, so cut me some slack...

 

With all the ruckus over letting Gilislee walk (this post is not meant to give an opinion either way; what's done is done. Moving on, now...), let's talk potential replacements in the draft. Granted, we have a very big question mark in J. Williams. Posters here--present company included--could argue all day on whether he will step up. I'm not arguing that, either; time will tell... arguing on a message board will not tell what we have in J. Williams. I'm hoping he does work out, BUT, regardless, MY pick to replace Gilly is Oklahoma's Samaje Perine. Here are my reasons:

 

1) From viewing a few highlight reels, he is clearly capable of the following:

 

-Bouncing off tacklers

-Running through LB's, CB's, and S's (Watch some tape... Can you IMAGINE the vaunted Patriot, Stephon Gilmore, attempting to tackle Perine? I would die laughing at Hoodie's expression when he proceeds to flatten Gilmore 10x in a game...).

-Stiff Arm City: Population Perine! His use of stiff-arms looks natural and fluid, NOT running upright and putting a hand out there, but throwing an arm if and when necessary, in stride, and while maintaining balance.

-Incredible contact balance, coupled with an innate ability to recover from glancing tackles.

-One-cut runner, fitting for the Dennison zone-blocking scheme, and similar to Gilly-style.

-I would be concerned about his wonderlic score... the guy clearly doesn't know the definition of the phrase "give up"... Fail on the wonderlic... WIN on the locomotive-train-that-pancakes-LB's... I'll take the win...

-As a strong short-yardage back, he provides an excellent compliment to Shady.

 

Evidence (please watch before shooting down these claims...):

 

 

 

 

2) Walter Football ranks Perine as their 9th best RB, and they have him going between the 3rd and 5th rounds:

 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2017RB.php

 

-

.....another name mentioned around here is the Pitt kid, Conner, from Whaley's alma mater.....if you're targeting a RB somewhere in the 3rd-5th and both are available, who do you take?.....

Edited April 26, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Augie]

I did not watch the whole thing, and I realize it's a highlight reel,but he sure made a lot of guys look like terrible tacklers. "Bounce" was a good description.

[NewEra]

Nice post. Welcome aboard. Perfect example of a good post imo.

 

I'd love to grab Perinne in rd 5 but I think he's going to go rd 3-4. Not sure if draft him in either of those though. I think there will be better value in those rounds, perinne is good value in 5+ imo.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

.....another name mentioned around here is the Pitt kid, Conner, from Whaley's alma mater.....if you're targeting a RB somewhere in the 3rd-5th and both are available, who do you take?.....

 

That is a very tough choice! The only things I noticed more of from Perine than Conner was that Perine flashed a little more in the pass catching and pass blocking than Conner did. Generally, though, their runs and running styles are very similar, although I would stick with my initial post, saying that Perine "bounces" off more tacklers, while Conner drives through more of them. Some of Conner's best runs show him dragging people until they just can't hang on anymore. Both are very good, and it's hard to argue which style is "better". His pass catching and blocking have me giving Perine a slight edge, but only slight. I don't know how other teams are viewing Conner, but Walter Football has him ranked at #17. If Perine is gone by the 5th--definite possibility--I am all for landing Conner, but either would be excellent 5th round pick.

Nice post. Welcome aboard. Perfect example of a good post imo.

 

I'd love to grab Perinne in rd 5 but I think he's going to go rd 3-4. Not sure if draft him in either of those though. I think there will be better value in those rounds, perinne is good value in 5+ imo.

 

Thanks much!

 

Yeah, I'm just hoping he slides, because his value in the 5th would be a real steal!

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

That is a very tough choice! The only things I noticed more of from Perine than Conner was that Perine flashed a little more in the pass catching and pass blocking than Conner did. Generally, though, their runs and running styles are very similar, although I would stick with my initial post, saying that Perine "bounces" off more tacklers, while Conner drives through more of them. Some of Conner's best runs show him dragging people until they just can't hang on anymore. Both are very good, and it's hard to argue which style is "better". His pass catching and blocking have me giving Perine a slight edge, but only slight. I don't know how other teams are viewing Conner, but Walter Football has him ranked at #17. If Perine is gone by the 5th--definite possibility--I am all for landing Conner, but either would be excellent 5th round pick.

...thanks for the assessment.. ....just don't get to see college ball, but this helps......

[H2o]

I'm a Perine and Foreman fan in terms of mid round value. I see both going in that 3-4 range.

Foreman is my guy. I think he is gonna be a good RB in this league.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Foreman is my guy. I think he is gonna be a good RB in this league.

....freakin' guy should have KENWORTH in his grille.....a beast.............

[Best Player Available]

Take Dalvin Cook in the 5th.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

he would be a good pick up but hopefully we get McCaffrey

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

he would be a good pick up but hopefully we get McCaffrey

....bet he goes in the 1st......Metcalf(s) and Meggett made a pretty good NFL living with the same versatility and size...........good pedigree with the old man as well............

[jdonley1180]

not so sure we spend a 3rd on RB, and I think thats where Perine gets picked. I think Corey Clements out of Wisconsin would be a good fit. I believe we'll be running a lot of plays out of "heavy" formations and Wisconsin does a ton of this. Clements could be had in the 5-6

[PABillsFan4Life]

James Conner. He's going to be an absolute beast.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

....bet he goes in the 1st......Metcalf(s) and Meggett made a pretty good NFL living with the same versatility and size...........good pedigree with the old man as well............

 

I could really see him in the role of Marshall Faulk but more established in the run game.

[Domdab99]

I reaaallly like this kid. Thumbs up.

[3rdand12]

 

That is a very tough choice! The only things I noticed more of from Perine than Conner was that Perine flashed a little more in the pass catching and pass blocking than Conner did. Generally, though, their runs and running styles are very similar, although I would stick with my initial post, saying that Perine "bounces" off more tacklers, while Conner drives through more of them. Some of Conner's best runs show him dragging people until they just can't hang on anymore. Both are very good, and it's hard to argue which style is "better". His pass catching and blocking have me giving Perine a slight edge, but only slight. I don't know how other teams are viewing Conner, but Walter Football has him ranked at #17. If Perine is gone by the 5th--definite possibility--I am all for landing Conner, but either would be excellent 5th round pick.

 

Thanks much!

 

Yeah, I'm just hoping he slides, because his value in the 5th would be a real steal!

I just want to mention, great point of discussion.

But better yet is your informative defense of the player and why he would fit as a Bill.

 

Well done indeed.

I love these kinds of runners. I bet some Bills coaches do too. Heck maybe even some of our O line would like to assist this kid get some steam rolling ? i the fifth? yes sir

[Augie]

Oh yes, and welcome!

[Heavy Kevi]

I don't know enough about the RB prospects in this draft to enter an opinion, but I would love it if we take a RB with the pick we got for Gillislee and he outproduces Gillislee.

[Webster Guy]

You know Whaley is going to use the Patriots 5th rounder to grab a RB and pray he can do what karlos/TD Mike did.

 

It's a guarantee. We got embarrassed trying to lowball gillislee so the only way to not look inept and pathetic is to get a gem runner that wins the #2 spot.

 

So yeah this guy looks awesome, but remember he's breaking tackles on college kids not NFL animals.

 

If he's there in the 5th hopefully we grab him. I sure wouldn't wanna tackle that joker.

[Boatdrinks]

You know Whaley is going to use the Patriots 5th rounder to grab a RB and pray he can do what karlos/TD Mike did.

It's a guarantee. We got embarrassed trying to lowball gillislee so the only way to not look inept and pathetic is to get a gem runner that wins the #2 spot.

So yeah this guy looks awesome, but remember he's breaking tackles on college kids not NFL animals.

If he's there in the 5th hopefully we grab him. I sure wouldn't wanna tackle that joker.

 

What if the backup is Jonathan Williams? You know, last years third round pick that may be the reason they didn't want to overpay MG. Adrian Peterson signed for less, that's ridiculous. He's still 10 times the back MG is.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Just an update to my OP:

 

http://www.bleacherreport.com/articles/2717515-nfl-rookies-who-already-look-like-draft-day-steals

 

First player listed as a draft-day steal: Samaje Perine...

 

#justsayin'

[Real McClappy]

Kid reminds me of Travis Henry