Belichick Advised Dimitroff to Not Trade Up for Julio Jones

[GRHater69]

Drafting a WR #1 can have bad ramifications. Just ask Matt Millen when he was Detroit's GM. He passed on DeMarcus Ware to grab Mike Williams who proceeded to east himself out of the NFL. He went against his scouting dept. and coach to make that pick. For the record, Jerry Rice, Andre Reed, John Stallworth were not #1 picks and did just fine in the NFL.

[Nihilarian]

Mike Williams?

Mike Evans?

[NoSaint]

Interesting that they were seemingly talking about this big trade before the draft! so much for the "no one knows anything anyone is doing!" line...

Except you don't know what's real and what's fake in these discussions

[boyst]

 

All in all, the Falcons sent the Browns a first-round pick (No. 27), a second-round pick (No. 59) and a fourth-round pick (No. 124) in 2011, and also chipped in the No. 1 pick in 2012 (No. 22) and their No. 4 pick in 2012 (No. 118).

 

Two firsts 2011, 2012

A second in 2011

Two fourths

 

All for the #6 pick in the 2011 NFL draft. The very next season the Falcons went 13-3 losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game 24-28

 

Then, possibly because of all those picks the team gave up they went into a funk in 2013 going 4-12 and Julio only played in 5 games that year. The defense was the real culprit being 27th overall. They went 6-10 in 2014 with Julio back and a worse defense. This period in time got HC Mike Smith fired and almost got GM Thomas Dimitroff fired as well.

 

One could argue that giving up all those picks could have hurt the team's ability to bolster the team/defense through the draft., There is no question that Julio Jones is a game changer and one of the very best WR's in the league.

 

Still,

TY Hilton led the league in yards in 2016 and was a 3rd round pick

Julio Jones led the league in yards in 2015

Antonio Brown led the league in yards in 2014 and was a 6th round pick

Josh Gordon led the league in yards in 2013 and was a 2nd round pick

Calvin Johnson led the league in yards in 2012 and was a 1st round pick

Calvin Johnson led the league in 2011.

I still think it was a mistake to give up so much for Sammy Watkins with the team not already having that franchise QB to throw to him.

 

defenses are built through the draft.

offenses are built through quality free agents that don't break the bank.

 

this is my philosphy

[Alphadawg7]

@ChrisWesseling

#SB51 subplot: Dimitroff opened 2 Super Bowl windows by forsaking Belichick's advice, pulling the trigger on 2011 Julio Jones blockbuster

 

 

See this is exactly why Hindsight is 20/20. We have 2 of the greatest football minds ever GROSSLY wrong on 2 WR's. Besides BB points on Julio, Bill Walsh traded up 20 spots in the first round for JJ Stokes and called him the next Jerry Rice. He also called Jim Drunkenmiller the next future great QB of the 49ers.

 

NOBODY is ever RIGHT even half the time, let alone all the time in the NFL. No GM, Coach, Scout etc in history is even remotely close to batting .500 when it comes to picking players in the draft. The greatest minds ever in the NFL are WRONG way more than they are right. But if you hit on the right people just enough times, that be the difference of being a failure as a GM/Coach or one of the greats.

 

All you can go on is what you have seen on them before they enter the NFL. Nobody can accurately project how well a player will accumulate to the bigger, faster game...the money...the pressure...the longer season...the brutality...the learning of a more complex system...etc. You make your best assessment based on what they have put on tape in college, combine, interviews, workouts, etc. And when Julio came out, the biggest knock on his was that he wasnt a polished receiver yet but was physically a beast and jumped up the boards after his 40 and long jump. His pre draft assessment was similar to Kevin White of the Bears (who has not worked out yet) and Kelvin Benjamin (who had a promising start but didn't hasn't fully got back to that since his injury).

 

For every Julio there are more Kevin Whites, JJ Stokes, etc. BB was ultimately wrong on Julio, but how many GM's were wrong about Brady and Gronk?

 

PS: Also should be noted that BB also doesn't believe you need a big time WR to win in his system and for most of Brady's career he has won (including ALL 4 Super Bowl victories) without a true #1 WR or anyone close to the caliber of Julio. So he values them less, another reason I am sure he advised giving up so much to get Julio.

 

NOTE: Yes Julio is a stud and I am sure Atlanta has no regrets now, but Atlanta paid a ransom for that trade (2 firsts, a 2nd, and two 4ths) and struggled for years to build a defense to support the offense because they gave up so much to get him when they already had a really good #1 WR in Roddy White at the time. And its taken 6 years to get to the Super Bowl since making that pick. And this is the first time in the last 4 years they even made the playoffs despite playing mostly in a weak division. Why...because the Defense has been so bad up until this year. So that was a lot to trade for any prospect, especially a guy who wasn't even the top prospect at his position (AJ Green was the best WR going into that draft and went before Julio), not a QB, and not a position of need for that team at the time...which is probably why BB advised against it. So can't fault BB IMO for that.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Beef Jerky]

Belichick has made plenty of bad decisions but Brady hides every single one of them.

[Big C]

I read this a few days ago and I think if you asked BB today, he still would say the same thing. BB values draft picks and Atlanta gave up a lot for Jones. But if they win a SB with him, it should justify the trade.

 

Came here to say exactly this.

[Mr. WEO]

WR is an area of weakness for BB in the draft. Whether they have been high or low picks they are almost always misses.

Agreed. But, BB's eye for WR talent is poor in the draft. And, you can't argue BB doesn't value WRs in the draft because he fills those spots with FAs. The reason you can't argue that is because BB has swung and missed on WRs in rounds one, two and three and he wouldn't have picked WRs there if he didn't value the position there.

 

Anywho, BB is great and you can't be great at everything. Not bashing him, just saying it's not a strength of his.

 

The point of this all is that is doesn't matter. He doesn't place high stock in top WRs. His formula does't need them and he has proven the value just isn't in the top WR position. His results in this regard cannot be argued with. To this point, the JJ pick has brought little value--even with a stud QB.

 

BB puts more weight in the TE position, and rightly so in today's game. Whaley will never figure this out.

[NoSaint]

 

The point of this all is that is doesn't matter. He doesn't place high stock in top WRs. His formula does't need them and he has proven the value just isn't in the top WR position. His results in this regard cannot be argued with. To this point, the JJ pick has brought little value--even with a stud QB.

 

BB puts more weight in the TE position, and rightly so in today's game. Whaley will never figure this out.

an elite qb buys some leeway or changes the equation some.

 

Though TEs for awhile seemed undervalued compared to impact and that's a great way to build value in a 53

[QCity]

I read this a few days ago and I think if you asked BB today, he still would say the same thing. BB values draft picks and Atlanta gave up a lot for Jones.

 

Agreed, he's demonstrated that over the years.

[BillsFan130]

I don't get why he asked for his advice and then did the opposite anyways. Nevertheless, turned out to be the right move of course

[Mikie2times]

BB understands the odds better than anyone. He doesn't bet against the odds. Regardless of the outcome if the odds say this was too much to risk it was a bad decision. People get too caught up in the individual nature of these decisions as if somebody has a miracle eye for talent. It's betting and in betting the person who has the odds in his favor over the long term will win over the long term.

Edited January 26, 2017 by KzooMike

[NoSaint]

BB understands the odds better than anyone. He doesn't bet against the odds. Regardless of the outcome if the odds say this was too much to risk it was a bad decision. People get too caught up in the individual nature of these decisions as if somebody has a miracle eye for talent. It's betting and in betting the person who has the odds in his favor over the long term will win over the long term.

Generally speaking, yup. And Brady goes a long way to buying him the long term to make sure they see those returns.

[dave mcbride]

I'll say it again because people seem to be ignoring it in the service of making some sort of draft equity or positional value argument without factoring in the player. Julio Jones is THAT good -- transcendently so. He is arguably the most talented skill player in the NFL right now.

Edited January 26, 2017 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

I'll say it again because people seem to be ignoring it in the service of making some sort of draft equity or positional value argument without factoring in the player. Julio Jones is THAT good -- transcendently so. He is arguably the most talented skill player in the NFL right now.

 

Yep. I repeat this ad infinitum on this forum. It comes down to talent evaluation first and foremost. You can have all these rules about:

 

- trade up for this

- don't trade up for that

- don't pay this position more than $xm

- don't sign this type of player in FA

 

etc, etc, etc..... but if it was as simple as following 6 or 7 standard rules to build a franchise then everyone would be doing it. It isn't. It comes down to evaluating talent first and foremost. You can have a set of principles you use to underpin your strategy but if you are not getting your evaluations right they don't help you and if you are going to tie yourself too rigidly to them you will handcuff yourself.

 

Evaluate talent, do it well, trust your evaluations.

[papazoid]

this is more about Belichick's long term mind set on building a team vs julio jones.

 

#1- he doesn't like to trade UP......avoids the all your eggs in one basket approach (high draft pick or high priced veteran), he prefers to trade down and spread out the cap hit and risk of injury over several players for the same amount of money.

 

#2- prefers to invest more in front 7 type players.......picks WR's & RB's off the scrap heap.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

 

 

Evaluate talent, do it well, trust your evaluations.

 

Unfortunately, the Bills are good at neither. Has ANY team failed so miserably in the first round of the draft as the Bills have the past three years?

 

Awful.

[Coach Tuesday]

I'll say it again because people seem to be ignoring it in the service of making some sort of draft equity or positional value argument without factoring in the player. Julio Jones is THAT good -- transcendently so. He is arguably the most talented skill player in the NFL right now.

 

I know that's a popular viewpoint here - KTD says the same about Sammy - but I disagree with it as a team-building approach. Yes, you need to collect star players. But no, you can't do so without considering the limited draft and cap resources you have, and the overall context of your roster. You also have to consider the value of the player in the context of the talent pool available at the time; BB wrongly believed there were other comparable options at WR in that draft (he was wrong); some of us rightly believed that the talent that Sammy possessed wasn't sufficiently unique considering the depth of receiver talent in that draft (OBJ, Evans, etc.) - we may have been right.

 

Scouting is about acquiring talent.

 

Team-building is about collecting the right talent at the right time, using the right amount of resources.

 

Doug Whaley is a good scout. He is a horrible team-builder.

 

If the Falcons made that trade without already having Matt Ryan on their roster, it would've gone from incredibly expensive to downright idiotic. See: Sammy Watkins.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Coach Tuesday

[ALLEN1QB]

Belicheater the same guy who passed on Tom Brady for 5 rounds and then lucked out getting him in the 6th a real genius.

[mannc]

Whaley's copying of the Julio trade up did not make any sense. Not because Watkins is not a great player when healthy. Watkins is great but does not have the size to ascend to the game changing physical force level of a Julio or Calvin Johnson. Only a great receiver who can also be a physically dominant force is worth that kind of value.

Antonio Brown? Odell Beckham?