The Trump Economy

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

54 minutes ago, Magox said:

This, unsurprisingly has been an underreported intended effect of the tax cut law.  This is  trillion dollars of potential stimulus, money that wouldn’t have come back to the US without some incentive to do so.   I’m sure most of it hasn’t been applied in a manner that has been stimulative but certainly some of it has.   Not to mention the revenues that it created at the 15.5% that it generated.

 

This is why I believe that those who believed that the tax law would just be a short-lived sugar high as Krugman and Zandi have claimed have it all wrong.   The tax cut is an ongoing form of stimuli and just because a company in year one or two have decided to not implement xyz measures that promote growth for their company and the economy doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t do so In the future.

 

The economic numbers continue to confound many economists.   Why?  Because they are too dogmatic with their views and cannot wrap their heads around why targeted tax cuts, smart deregulatory measures, policies that promote people to work as opposed to living off of safety net measures in perpetuity and a pro business agenda actually are contributing to a these cascading effects that we are witnessing.

 

EXCELLENT perspective.....not sure if guys like Krugman are confounded or PO'ed........when I took my current CFO position 20 years ago, there was a guy who started as an electrician and eventually became a Maintenance Project Manager.....loud, boisterous, obnoxious and lazy POS who was retiring....EVERY 'effin day he had his "countdown to retirement clock" and would announce how many more days....he had NO qualms about announcing, hoping and praying how the company would go out of business upon his retirement....20 years hence, we have quadrupled revenue and are in 4 states employing 225 Union electricians.....he is the PERFECT Progressive....hoping and wanting the "Big Bully USA" to fail and become an also ran.....Krugman and his ilk are fueled by TDS yet the economy has defied their wishes and odds, stealing what was hoped to be a MAJOR weapon of criticism, a/k/a economic failure.........

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, Foxx said:

exactly! loved Sam.

frosh year in residence, watched in the common room with a dozen others, one of those moments of comedic genius I’ve never forgotten 

[Foxx]

4 minutes ago, row_33 said:

frosh year in residence, watched in the common room with a dozen others, one of those moments of comedic genius I’ve never forgotten 

you should have seen him live, he was simply a genius. i don't know that i would equate him to Carlin level genius but he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath in my opinion.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Foxx

[3rdnlng]

9 minutes ago, Foxx said:

you should have seen him live, he was simply a genius. i don't know that i would equate him to Carlin level genius but he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath in my opinion.

Saw Carlin in the 70's at a rather small setting (hundreds not thousands) at a state university. Without a doubt, pure genius. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

24 minutes ago, Foxx said:

exactly! loved Sam.

 

 

...Sam was laughably insane......BUT...the BEST live performance I EVER saw was Dangerfield.......oversoaked my Depends and the damn auditorium backcharged me for the cleanup...

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

27 minutes ago, Foxx said:

you should have seen him live, he was simply a genius. i don't know that i would equate him to Carlin level genius but he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath in my opinion.

 

15 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Saw Carlin in the 70's at a rather small setting (hundreds not thousands) at a state university. Without a doubt, pure genius. 

I mentioned a while back that I met George Carlin.  A close friend was his nephew, and he and his wife surprised me for a birthday with front row/ meet and greet. We were at a small club in Ct, GC comes out, starts his show and waves to our friends.  After the show, we navigate through a strip club next door to get backstage.  Very nice guy, told me how “backstage via strip  club” was much more the norm of his life than Radio City Musical Hall.  Probably not a surprise, but he was Mensa-level genius.  My wife met him a couple times (I was out of town the first time), spent several hours walking Atlantic City boardwalk. Good guy.

 

The other thing—sent his family Holiday cards.  One year, he sent a photo of his dog humping his cat with the caption “PIECE!”. One of my favorites of all time. 

Edited December 28, 2019 by leh-nerd skin-erd

[row_33]

50 minutes ago, Foxx said:

you should have seen him live, he was simply a genius. i don't know that i would equate him to Carlin level genius but he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath in my opinion.

I didn’t care much for Carlin, or I’d say he lived long enough that the same old same old thing for decades wasn’t interesting to me, you have to come up with Act 2 at some point, please?

 

Sam burnt out real fast, his appearances with Howard Stern were enjoyed

 

His next big appearance I think was on SNL where they bleeped him out in the east and sliced away from the west coast rerun

 

 

Edited December 28, 2019 by row_33

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

 

I mentioned a while back that I met George Carlin.  A close friend was his nephew, and he and his wife surprised me for a birthday with front row/ meet and greet. We were at a small club in Ct, GC comes out, starts his show and waves to our friends.  After the show, we navigate through a strip club next door to get backstage.  Very nice guy, told me how “backstage via strip  club” was much more the norm of his life than Radio City Musical Hall.  Probably not a surprise, but he was Mensa-level genius.  My wife met him a couple times (I was out of town the first time), spent several hours walking Atlantic City boardwalk. Good guy.

 

The other thing—sent his family Holiday cards.  One year, he sent a photo of his dog humping his cat with the caption “PIECE!”. One of my favorites of all time. 

When I saw him, halfway thru the performance he announced he was taking a break, pulled a chair over on to the center of the stage, sat down and lit up a smoke and drank a beer. It was a fifteen minute break in front of everyone and he didn't say a word. 

[Foxx]

Richard Pryor was also a genius.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

When I saw him, halfway thru the performance he announced he was taking a break, pulled a chair over on to the center of the stage, sat down and lit up a smoke and drank a beer. It was a fifteen minute break in front of everyone and he didn't say a word. 

One last part. My friend's mom was his sister.  She was awesome--funny, tough, strong Bronx accent.  We used to see her fairly often, couple times a year. She liked me for whatever reason, and usually greeted me the same way each time I saw her.  "Hey...Buffalo!". ?

[GG]

33 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

One last part. My friend's mom was his sister.  She was awesome--funny, tough, strong Bronx accent.  We used to see her fairly often, couple times a year. She liked me for whatever reason, and usually greeted me the same way each time I saw her.  "Hey...Buffalo!". ?

 

You probably know that his brother scattered part of his ashes into the Hudson in Saugerties, so they can wind back down to the City.

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/1210959209766031360

 

[/dev/null]

17 minutes ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/1210959209766031360

 

 

Trump kicks 6 million off Food Stamps

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

24 minutes ago, GG said:

 

You probably know that his brother scattered part of his ashes into the Hudson in Saugerties, so they can wind back down to the City.

I did not! Thanks! 

[Koko78]

15 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

 

Trump kicks 6 million off Food Stamps

 

Millions to starve due to Trump's malfeasance.

[row_33]

16 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

 

Trump kicks 6 million off Food Stamps

nah I can’t go there with 6 million...

 

[B-Man]

 

UNEXPECTEDLY!  

 

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years. 

 

“The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed for a third month in November to the smallest shortfall in three years as exports increased and imports declined, the latest sign that economic growth is holding up at the end of the year.”

 

 

.

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1214946140048838659

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

Economic cycles don't begin and end with presidential terms.  A better measure would be Trump's 35 months in office vs. any continuous 35 month period of time of any other president.  

 

And the result may very well be the same.

[row_33]

and Reagan (and Thatcher) were elected on platforms of austerity economic plans that were going to be very grim, then won re-elections on coming out of the gloom

 

[TPS]

22 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Economic cycles don't begin and end with presidential terms.  A better measure would be Trump's 35 months in office vs. any continuous 35 month period of time of any other president.  

 

And the result may very well be the same.

There really is no other comparative period for this.  The reason I predicted (back in January 2018) a recession in 2020 was because I thought the stimulus from the tax cuts and spending increases would cause the economy to accelerate, leading to inflationary pressures, causing the FED to raise interest rates faster than planned (the FED raising its short term rate is the cause of the inverted yield curve that has preceded the last 5-6 recessions).  However, the relationship that I (and the FED) relied on has changed....AGAIN. 

 

The relationship between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips Curve) has changed. The FED uses the concept of NAIRU, the rate of unemployment it believes will trigger inflationary pressures from wage gains) to guide its interest rate policy.  In the mid 1990s, NAIRU was believed to be about 6%, and Greenspan argued it had decreased due to technology, so the FED held steady on rates and allowed the economy to expand, not raising them until mid 1999--hence the long Clinton expansion.  Based on that experience, they adopted a new estimate for NAIRU of 4.5%.  The FED started raising rates when unemployment hit 5% back in December of 2015 because it thought inflationary pressures would start to build. However, inflation remained subdued, even as unemployment dipped below 4% in early 2018.  The FED was struggling to explain things, and some of the doves were starting to argue they should hold steady on rates until inflationary pressure could actually be observed.  Then Trump's trade war started impacting manufacturing last year, so they started to lower rates again.  So currently no one at the FED really knows what the value of NAIRU is, so they have taken a wait and see approach. 

 

As I've stated several times, employment growth under Trump hasn't been much different than the previous several years under Obama. I've posted these before, the average monthly job gains by year for the past 6 years:

2014  251K

2015  227K

2016   193K

 

2017   179K

2018  223K

2019  177K 

 

Trump's job gains have not been extraordinary, and neither has RGDP growth.

 

The real issue is why hasn't the low unemployment rate of 3.5% caused an acceleration in wages leading to higher inflationary pressures?  I'm in the camp that believes workers' bargaining power is non-existent because of things like globalization, the decline in unionization, non-compete clauses, and economic concentration (monopolies) which give large corporations  "monopsony" power in bargaining with workers.  While we have seen some uptick in wage gains, they are not enough to cause inflation to exceed the FED's 2% target.  Eventually, one would think, we would have to see a trigger point, with businesses having to raise wages to attract even moderately skilled workers.  Interesting times.  

 

 

 Prognosticating, economic growth for 2019 is back to Obama era levels--it will come in somewhere around 2.3% +/- 0.2 (i'm basing this on the average monthly growth in jobs above, with 2019 much lower than 2018).  If the economy continues to grow at this rate, it puts things in a sweet spot, where employment grows without putting upward pressure on wages, and it the economy will probably muddle along the entire year like that.  If Trump and China come to a more significant agreement and manufacturing recovers, then growth will be higher and it could set the FED back on its interest rate increase path, which is ultimately the cause of recessions.  For market players, that's what you want to watch out for--at the first whiff the FED will reverse course (raise rates again) is when you should get defensive.   

Cheers.   

 

 

[keepthefaith]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

There really is no other comparative period for this.  The reason I predicted (back in January 2018) a recession in 2020 was because I thought the stimulus from the tax cuts and spending increases would cause the economy to accelerate, leading to inflationary pressures, causing the FED to raise interest rates faster than planned (the FED raising its short term rate is the cause of the inverted yield curve that has preceded the last 5-6 recessions).  However, the relationship that I (and the FED) relied on has changed....AGAIN. 

 

The relationship between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips Curve) has changed. The FED uses the concept of NAIRU, the rate of unemployment it believes will trigger inflationary pressures from wage gains) to guide its interest rate policy.  In the mid 1990s, NAIRU was believed to be about 6%, and Greenspan argued it had decreased due to technology, so the FED held steady on rates and allowed the economy to expand, not raising them until mid 1999--hence the long Clinton expansion.  Based on that experience, they adopted a new estimate for NAIRU of 4.5%.  The FED started raising rates when unemployment hit 5% back in December of 2015 because it thought inflationary pressures would start to build. However, inflation remained subdued, even as unemployment dipped below 4% in early 2018.  The FED was struggling to explain things, and some of the doves were starting to argue they should hold steady on rates until inflationary pressure could actually be observed.  Then Trump's trade war started impacting manufacturing last year, so they started to lower rates again.  So currently no one at the FED really knows what the value of NAIRU is, so they have taken a wait and see approach. 

 

As I've stated several times, employment growth under Trump hasn't been much different than the previous several years under Obama. I've posted these before, the average monthly job gains by year for the past 6 years:

2014  251K

2015  227K

2016   193K

 

2017   179K

2018  223K

2019  177K 

 

Trump's job gains have not been extraordinary, and neither has RGDP growth.

 

The real issue is why hasn't the low unemployment rate of 3.5% caused an acceleration in wages leading to higher inflationary pressures?  I'm in the camp that believes workers' bargaining power is non-existent because of things like globalization, the decline in unionization, non-compete clauses, and economic concentration (monopolies) which give large corporations  "monopsony" power in bargaining with workers.  While we have seen some uptick in wage gains, they are not enough to cause inflation to exceed the FED's 2% target.  Eventually, one would think, we would have to see a trigger point, with businesses having to raise wages to attract even moderately skilled workers.  Interesting times.  

 

 

 Prognosticating, economic growth for 2019 is back to Obama era levels--it will come in somewhere around 2.3% +/- 0.2 (i'm basing this on the average monthly growth in jobs above, with 2019 much lower than 2018).  If the economy continues to grow at this rate, it puts things in a sweet spot, where employment grows without putting upward pressure on wages, and it the economy will probably muddle along the entire year like that.  If Trump and China come to a more significant agreement and manufacturing recovers, then growth will be higher and it could set the FED back on its interest rate increase path, which is ultimately the cause of recessions.  For market players, that's what you want to watch out for--at the first whiff the FED will reverse course (raise rates again) is when you should get defensive.   

Cheers.   

 

 

 

While GDP increases have been modest, what's most impressive to me is the length of the expansion that began under Obama.  As you've pointed out it's really a continuation of an economic sugar high (or cocaine) fueled by recent tax cuts, very low interest rates and continuous huge deficit spending.  The latter which I still contend will bite us very hard some day.  Deficit spending has become a huge pillar of our economy, an addiction.

[TPS]

45 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

While GDP increases have been modest, what's most impressive to me is the length of the expansion that began under Obama.  As you've pointed out it's really a continuation of an economic sugar high (or cocaine) fueled by recent tax cuts, very low interest rates and continuous huge deficit spending.  The latter which I still contend will bite us very hard some day.  Deficit spending has become a huge pillar of our economy, an addiction.

Most important is the policy reversal of the FED which allows the expansion to continue.   Yeah faith, one of these days those deficits...?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump

By Matt London | Fox News    Published 30 mins ago

The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said.

"The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer."

"If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued.

"Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?"

https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages

 

 

 

[GG]

Bad news for Bill Maher - 4Q earnings are starting to come in.

[bbb]

12 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump

By Matt London | Fox News    Published 30 mins ago

The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said.

"The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer."

"If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued.

"Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?"

https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages

 

 

 

 

All you ever hear are jokes about "trickle down" 

[John Adams]

If the China issues get addressed for real, will the government do something worthy with all this money? Great times to be alive. 

 

3 hours ago, bbb said:

 

All you ever hear are jokes about "trickle down" 

 

The Fox article is just self promo junk but forgive AFLguy his lemmingness, the national review article it is based on is a good one. 

Edited January 15, 2020 by John Adams

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1217489657266606080

 

[Foxx]

oh boy... the Dems are gonna ***** a brick when this happens.

 

'Tax Cuts 2.0' will be rolled out during Trump's 2020 campaign, his top economic adviser says

... The Trump administration will roll out another tax-cut plan during the 2020 campaign, the president's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.

 

Kudlow, the National Economic Council director, said he'd been spearheading the planning so far.

 

"I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0," Kudlow said. "We're many months away. It'll come out sometime later during the campaign." ...

Edited January 15, 2020 by Foxx

[Hedge]

 

 

 

[Chef Jim]

On 1/14/2020 at 10:26 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump

By Matt London | Fox News    Published 30 mins ago

The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said.

"The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer."

"If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued.

"Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?"

https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages

 

 

 

 

Well I think it's hard to say the poor are getting richer.  They're just becoming less poor.  

[TH3]

On 1/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

Please tell me you understand how stupid this chart it....

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1217489657266606080

 

Please tell me you actually understand more than clip and post...

[Chef Jim]

3 minutes ago, TH3 said:

 

Please tell me you actually understand more than clip and post...

 

Please tell my you actually understand the economy is doing very well may well only get better and this is one of the rare occasions the President actually has something to do with it.  

[KRC]

17 hours ago, Foxx said:

oh boy... the Dems are gonna ***** a brick when this happens.

 

'Tax Cuts 2.0' will be rolled out during Trump's 2020 campaign, his top economic adviser says

... The Trump administration will roll out another tax-cut plan during the 2020 campaign, the president's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday.

 

Kudlow, the National Economic Council director, said he'd been spearheading the planning so far.

 

"I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0," Kudlow said. "We're many months away. It'll come out sometime later during the campaign." ...

 

Tax cuts (Trump) versus tax increases (Dems). Hmmm...Hard to choose which way to go here.

[Hedge]

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

It's Trump's fault !!

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

WE HAD BEEN ASSURED WE WERE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER DEPRESSION: 

 

Solid U.S. Retail Sales Confirm Consumer Strength.

 

 

 

 

 

To be fair, we’ve been told that every month since November, 2016. It’s like nobody’s listening.

 

 

.

[Foxx]

it's just me but ... i would have went with, 'grandstanding idiot'. ?

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/Tom_Blersch/status/1217908460957962241

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by Foxx