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The AFC Playoff Picture


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Need Miami to lose 3 of their next 5, or we get into messy tiebreaker stuff at 10-6, and if they did win 3/5, they are at 2-1 division right now, we'd then need their two losses to be against division opponents in order to have any chance at the tiebreaker.

 

3 of their 5 remaining games are division games.

 

Miami is a threat despite my belief that they aren't a good team. We need to root for them to tank against the Ravens sunday.

Agreed- this isn't a must win for us this weekend, but Miami is a must lose against the Ravens. If we lose and Miami does too, our chances at 10-6 are still very good.

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My head is spinning. Can't keep this **** straight. I'm voluntarily entering the "TBD Playoff Calculation Concussion Protocol."

which of these are you experiencing ?

 

-Any loss of consciousness

-Slow to get up following a hit to the head ("hit to the head" may include secondary

contact with the playing surface)

-Motor coordination/balance problems (stumbles, trips/falls, slow/labored movement)

-Blank or vacant look

-Disorientation (e.g., unsure of where he is on the field or location of bench)

-Clutching of head after contact

-Visible facial injury in combination with any of the above

-Headache;

-Dizziness; -Balance or coordination difficulties;

-Nausea;

-Amnesia for the circumstances surrounding the injury (i.e., retrograde/anterograde amnesia);

-Cognitive slowness;

-Light/sound sensitivity;

-Disorientation;

-Visual disturbance;

-Tinnitus.

Edited by papazoid
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which of these are you experiencing ?

 

-Any loss of consciousness

-Slow to get up following a hit to the head ("hit to the head" may include secondary

contact with the playing surface) Slamming head against brick wall.

-Motor coordination/balance problems (stumbles, trips/falls, slow/labored movement) Drunk

-Blank or vacant look 16 years will do that to a guy

-Disorientation (e.g., unsure of where he is on the field or location of bench)

-Clutching of head after contact

-Visible facial injury in combination with any of the above

-Headache; Yes...listening to JfH

-Dizziness; -Balance or coordination difficulties;

-Nausea; Every Sunday

-Amnesia for the circumstances surrounding the injury (i.e., retrograde/anterograde amnesia);

-Cognitive slowness; That's an understatement

-Light/sound sensitivity;

-Disorientation;

-Visual disturbance;

-Tinnitus.

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I in no way think this is going to happen but the Bills can still make it in at 8-8. I was playing around with the ESPN playoff machine

 

Hopefully I can get this link thing to work...

 

Link

 

:lol: Awesome! just need Denver, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Kansas City to go a combined 3-17 in the remaining 20 games!!

Edited by What a Tuel
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AFC playoff hunt: Fun begins in the wild, wild West
The AFC playoff picture is quite opaque. Gregg Rosenthal expects things to get weird, starting in the West. Derek Carr's Raiders, Justin Houston's Chiefs and Von Miller's Broncos all have work to do.

 

Week 13's two biggest AFC tilts

The Dolphins-Ravens game Sunday in Baltimore has been described as a "playoff game," which isn't exactly fair. With this many teams still in the race, everyone aside from San Diego has some margin for error. Baltimore would hardly be out of the two-team AFC North race with Pittsburgh if the Ravens fall to 6-6, so the game sets up as more important for the Dolphins.

 

Buffalo is in an even tougher spot. The Bills are a game back of Miami in the wild-card race and have to go to Oakland on Sunday. The Bills quietly did a nice job the last two weeks overcoming injuries to take care of business against lackluster squads. But can Rex Ryan's team consistently win with a passing offense this limited? A loss in the Black Hole, which would put Buffalo at 3-5 in the conference, would nearly finish off the Bills.

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There are way too many scenarios left still. After messing around with the playoff machine I had one scenario where the Dolphins at 10-6 were in, the Bills at 9-7 were in, and both the Broncos and Chiefs at 9-7 were out.

 

Yep. Not gunna worry about all of this as many do every year until it matters. Bills just have to win to have a chance right now, as per usual.

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Personally, my view is pretty simple as it comes to where the Bills stand in the playoff picture. The two 9-2 teams simply have to win 3 games and they're untouchable, even if they don't win their division. Patriots have the Rams and Jets at home and have to scratch just one game out of Baltimore, @Denver, and @Miami. For me, the Week 17 game @Miami comes down to whether they need it for home field or not. At a minimum, they get to 12-4 and likely better. Oakland has a much tougher road. If they beat Buffalo, though, they're at 10-2. They could afford to lose all remaining games @Kansas City, @San Diego, Indianapolis and @Denver and still have the Bills on H2H tiebreaker. Even if the Bills win this week, give them San Diego and Indianapolis and they're at 11-5 as well or better. Kansas City's schedule is tough too, @Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, Denver then @San Diego. Even if you assume the Raiders go 11-5 now, Kansas City is almost certainly at least the same or better. They will win @Atlanta or @San Diego. Now a win versus Oakland and Tennessee and that gets them to 11-5 as well. Even though Miami has the TB over Denver, I'll do Denver next. They have the hardest road of these three West teams. @Jacksonville and @Tennessee are probably two wins, even with their QB hurt. What's left is New England, @Kansas City and Oakland. For Miami, it's possible that they only win 1 of their last 5. @Baltimore will be tough for a team playing for their division. Arizona at home won't be easy. @NY Jets may be their only winnable game, having to come to Buffalo Christmas Eve and finishing versus a New England team that may need the game for home field advantage. Barring an unlikely run, I think the Dolphins are out at 8-8 or 9-7 at best. That leaves Pittsburgh. Home game in week 17 versus Cleveland is the only easy game on the schedule and maybe @ Cincinnati in week 15. Otherwise its the Giants, @Buffalo and Baltimore. My prediction before this week:

Division Winners: New England (13-3), Oakland (12-4), Baltimore (9-7), Houston (10-6).
Wildcards: Kansas City (11-5), winner of Buffalo/Miami game in Week 16 (10-6).

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Bills have to win out the rest of their AFC games.

 

Meaning, they have to beat a legit Oakland team. 😬

Personally, my view is pretty simple as it comes to where the Bills stand in the playoff picture. The two 9-2 teams simply have to win 3 games and they're untouchable, even if they don't win their division. Patriots have the Rams and Jets at home and have to scratch just one game out of Baltimore, @Denver, and @Miami. For me, the Week 17 game @Miami comes down to whether they need it for home field or not. At a minimum, they get to 12-4 and likely better. Oakland has a much tougher road. If they beat Buffalo, though, they're at 10-2. They could afford to lose all remaining games @Kansas City, @San Diego, Indianapolis and @Denver and still have the Bills on H2H tiebreaker. Even if the Bills win this week, give them San Diego and Indianapolis and they're at 11-5 as well or better. Kansas City's schedule is tough too, @Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, Denver then @San Diego. Even if you assume the Raiders go 11-5 now, Kansas City is almost certainly at least the same or better. They will win @Atlanta or @San Diego. Now a win versus Oakland and Tennessee and that gets them to 11-5 as well. Even though Miami has the TB over Denver, I'll do Denver next. They have the hardest road of these three West teams. @Jacksonville and @Tennessee are probably two wins, even with their QB hurt. What's left is New England, @Kansas City and Oakland. For Miami, it's possible that they only win 1 of their last 5. @Baltimore will be tough for a team playing for their division. Arizona at home won't be easy. @NY Jets may be their only winnable game, having to come to Buffalo Christmas Eve and finishing versus a New England team that may need the game for home field advantage. Barring an unlikely run, I think the Dolphins are out at 8-8 or 9-7 at best. That leaves Pittsburgh. Home game in week 17 versus Cleveland is the only easy game on the schedule and maybe @ Cincinnati in week 15. Otherwise its the Giants, @Buffalo and Baltimore. My prediction before this week:

 

Division Winners: New England (13-3), Oakland (12-4), Baltimore (9-7), Houston (10-6).

Wildcards: Kansas City (11-5), winner of Buffalo/Miami game in Week 16 (10-6).

👍

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There are way too many scenarios left still. After messing around with the playoff machine I had one scenario where the Dolphins at 10-6 were in, the Bills at 9-7 were in, and both the Broncos and Chiefs at 9-7 were out.

 

I had a scenario where the Bills, Dolphins, Broncos and Colts all finished at 9-7 and the Bills won the tiebreakers and got in. Oddly enough, none of the individual games to get to that scenario were far fetched. Of course, getting them all to fall that way is a different matter.

Bills have to win out the rest of their AFC games.

 

Meaning, they have to beat a legit Oakland team.

 

 

Not even close. The Bills need the Raiders and Pats to basically run the table (other than the Raider game this week) and if that happens there are tons of ways for the Bills to get in with a single loss (as long as that loss isn't to the Dolphins.) The reason is the Raiders and Pats play a lot of the teams the Bills need to lose.

Edited by MDH
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Need Miami to lose 3 of their next 5, or we get into messy tiebreaker stuff at 10-6, and if they did win 3/5, they are at 2-1 division right now, we'd then need their two losses to be against division opponents in order to have any chance at the tiebreaker.

 

3 of their 5 remaining games are division games.

 

Miami is a threat despite my belief that they aren't a good team. We need to root for them to tank against the Ravens sunday.

Their two losses would be in the division: us and Pats

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There are way too many scenarios left still. After messing around with the playoff machine I had one scenario where the Dolphins at 10-6 were in, the Bills at 9-7 were in, and both the Broncos and Chiefs at 9-7 were out.

 

 

to make myself feel good, I made one that Buffalo gets home field throughout at 11-5 and New England misses

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:lol: After hearing Brady having knee issues, and Gronk's season being over, I made the same! People's reactions were "in your dreams" :thumbdown::lol:

Except for the Bills to make the playoffs they need the help of th Patriots. Pats play the Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins the rest of the way. We need them to win those games. A less than full strength Pats team hurts the Bills chances.

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Except for the Bills to make the playoffs they need the help of th Patriots. Pats play the Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins the rest of the way. We need them to win those games. A less than full strength Pats team hurts the Bills chances.

 

Definitely. Mostly just a joke, and not reality, but if the Pats did drop a lot of their next 5 games, it does kind of open the door for the division and another in for the playoffs. They won't though.

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Definitely. Mostly just a joke, and not reality, but if the Pats did drop a lot of their next 5 games, it does kind of open the door for the division and another in for the playoffs. They won't though.

No they won't. And although Gronk is out, I expect the Patriot machine to keep on rolling.

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Definitely. Mostly just a joke, and not reality, but if the Pats did drop a lot of their next 5 games, it does kind of open the door for the division and another in for the playoffs. They won't though.

Agreed- I said somewhere above that a weakened Pats squad actually hurts the Bills now. We need their help. Sad thing is that if that Pats had lost some ganes during the suspension, with these injuries, there may have been a legit chance to unseat them.

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Bummed myself out looking at some worst-case scenarios and it looks like there are ways we win out at still only finish 8th.

But of course we have a lot of important games left to play.

 

 

Interestingly, if you auto-select by offensive rank we finish 5th and if you go by defensive rank we finish 4th.

Edited by Big C
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Baltimore over Miami - Baltimore is at home and have a good shot at winning

Giants over Steelers - This is a tough one. The Giants are an above-average team and have to play the Steelers at Heinz Field.

Atlanta over KC - Atlanta at home have been invincible.

GB over Houston - GB at home should start showing their mojo back

JAX over Denver - Denver has key injuries and JAX are playing for pride

TB over SD - This is a tough game...A surging TB and a equally putting it together Chargers. Could go either way

and of course the Bills can start killing some curse by winning in Oakland in 50 years!!!!! Go Bills!

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Baltimore over Miami - Baltimore is at home and have a good shot at winning

Giants over Steelers - This is a tough one. The Giants are an above-average team and have to play the Steelers at Heinz Field.

Atlanta over KC - Atlanta at home have been invincible.

GB over Houston - GB at home should start showing their mojo back

JAX over Denver - Denver has key injuries and JAX are playing for pride

TB over SD - This is a tough game...A surging TB and a equally putting it together Chargers. Could go either way

and of course the Bills can start killing some curse by winning in Oakland in 50 years!!!!! Go Bills!

It's actually better if Miami beats the Ravens. We need to be ahead of them thanks to their advantage head-to-head over us. Of course we have to handle Miami later. Pray for a Christmas Eve blizzard.

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It's actually better if Miami beats the Ravens. We need to be ahead of them thanks to their advantage head-to-head over us. Of course we have to handle Miami later. Pray for a Christmas Eve blizzard.

No we want ravens to win the north thanks to TT for shitting the bed week 1

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