How is Watkins?

[John from Riverside]

 

And all the excuses are there for Lynn when he goes full ground and pound.

Why do you always have to point to things as "excuses"

 

So friggen irritating.....Lynn is going to work with the groceries he has to deal with......is there an option for him? No

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Looks like he's not playing.

 

[MAJBobby]

Why do you always have to point to things as "excuses"

 

So friggen irritating.....Lynn is going to work with the groceries he has to deal with......is there an option for him? No

Because I am taking on the personality of this HC

[John from Riverside]

Because I am taking on the personality of this HC

OK?

 

Look.....we get it....WE GET IT WE GET IT WE GET IT

 

You dont like Rex

[YoloinOhio]

Well now

 

@chrisbrownbills

Watkins didn't practice at all this week but Rex said Watkins is a special case who could play Sunday if he feels up to it. #Bills

[26CornerBlitz]

@MatthewFairburn

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

[Fadingpain]

 

@MatthewFairburn

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

 

[BringBackFergy]

 

@MatthewFairburn

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

 

It's a rough sport played by tough men.

Edited September 23, 2016 by BringBackFergy

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

It's a rough sport played by tough men.

 

Ags looking more correct with each passing day.

[MAJBobby]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 24s25 seconds ago

#Bills WR Sammy Watkins is listed as questionable, but Rex Ryan told reporters the likelihood is “probably not real good” he plays.

[RyanC883]

 

@MatthewFairburn

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

 

 

who stepped on his foot? Rob and Rex at the same time while jumping up and down? Were they wearing metal cleats during the walk-through? Why are our players stepping on each-other? This sounds like Rex trying to make excuses for what he sees as an impending blowout.

Edited September 23, 2016 by RyanC883

[Hapless Bills Fan]

You would think it would be easy enough to get him targets but we havent seen this for his entire career. He has never gotten targets one would think he should get based on him being the #1 guy. Seems so overly simply which makes me wonder if there is something we are missing that only coaches and players are aware of that is the reason?

 

OK, first of all, I don't think the targets for Watkins are as off-kilter as some think. That said, I think there are a few obvious systematic reasons fans tend to miss:

1) Bills offense overall runs a below average number of plays. 2014 - 17th and 2015 - 21st in the league. So far this year, we have run 98 plays in 2 games, dead last

2) Within that already below-average number of plays, we ran a relatively low number of pass plays last year. 2014 with Orton/Marrone, 57% pass (only a bit low) Last year 46% pass plays (very low, 31st in the league).

3) In 2014, 25% pass plays were short passes to RBs. In 2015, 17% (but the overall number of pass plays was also 10% lower).

 

If you have a low number of plays, low percentage of pass plays, and high percentage check downs or design plays to RBs, that spells a lower number of chances for the WR. Any WR.

 

But let's look under the hood and see what that means on a per-game basis, then compare to the Bengals as a team with a high-drafted WR which was where the Bills want to be (playoffs, winning record) in 2015.

 

For the Bills, 465 pass plays less the RB receptions comes to 24 pass plays per game targeting the WR/TE. Sammy is averaging under 8 targets per game (7.6). So out of the potential targets, last year Sammy got just under 1/3, 32%.

About 1/3 are going to the TEs and 1/3 were split between the other WR, with most going to Woods (Woods averages 6 targets per game). (I know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

Let's compare to the 2015 Bengals. I have always thought Watkins was drafted to be to EJ, what AJ Green has been to Andy Dalton since their 1st season together. Every time I see the Bengals play, there are 2-3 throws per game that I'm like "how did Green catch that?" No question he has made Dalton a more successful QB and he is "legit" one of the best WR in the game with 5 successive >1000 yd seasons and top-10 in the league for yds/game.

 

Career wise, Green has just over 9 targets per game, or about 1.5 targets/game more than Sammy. The Bengals, 7th in the NFL on "points for" offense, ran fewer offensive plays than the Bills last year (1004)The Bengals passed 50% of the time, so they still had 505 pass plays. 143 of these passes were to RB (counting Jones as a WR). So the Bengals are sending ~23 passes/game to the WR or TE - not that different from the Bills. Of those passes targeting TE/WR, the Bengals sent just over 1/3, 36%, Green's way (again, this comes to between 1-2 extra targets per game). (I still know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

But wait a minute, targets don't tell the whole story. What about catch % and YPR in 2015? Green: 65% catch percentage, 15.1 YPR, 81.1 YPG Watkins: 63% catch percentage, 17.5 YPR, 80.5 YPG. Green: 2 drops out of 132 targets (1.5%). Watkins 3 drops out of 96 targets (3.1%). It should be noted that drops have a subjective element - if it hits the receiver's hand and is judged catchable, it's a drop but may still be a difficult catch. 2% lower catch percentage would equate to 1 less reception every 4 games for a receiver being targeted 10x per game.

 

Got to be there to catch the ball. Watkins missed 3 games last year. Green missed 3 games in 2014. And when he's there, Watkins is racking up similar stats

 

So, based on Football Facts, it must be concluded that Watkins compared well against a 1st round draft choice playing for a successful team with a 2nd tier QB. The principal difference appears to be that Watkins got on average, 1-2 fewer targets per game. He has ~2% lower catch percentage, of which ~1.5% are judged drops (note subjectivity involved in drops stat). Although the Bengals passed more often (31 vs 29 times per game) he Bills and Bengals have thrown to WR/TE a similar amount - 23 or 24 times per game.

 

Which gets back to the point that although balls were thrown to WR/TE a similar amount, the Bengals ran 2 more pass plays per game than the Bills.

 

There are things it's hard for fans, even fans watching all-22, to tell:

1) is he running the correct route in the correct way? If he's not where the QB expects him to be, he likely won't get targeted.

There was talk among former player pundits (Largent I think?) that in 2014, the Bills WR were not running very good routes (poor coaching?). Orton, who while limited,was an NFL-quality QB, reportedly laid into them when he took over at QB. Reportedly this has improved under Sanjay Lal, and I didn't hear the same talk last year.

2) is he open from the perspective of the QB? He can look open on film, but harder to tell the QB's perspective. This is especially true for a short QB/designed passing lanes situation - it's not enough for the WR to have good separation from the DB, he has to be in the right spot on the field so the QB has a clear shot at him. This comes back to a point someone made here about timing.

3) is the bottom line that the Bills passed 2x less per game than the Bengals, resulting in 1-2 less targets per game for Sammy? Presumably, some of the time the plays go to RB, they were intended to go to WR and pressure or coverage forced the check down. Are more of the Bengals plays just designed to go to Green, thus resulting in more targets even after many pass plays break down?

 

That's all I got right now. If you stuck with me this long, thanks for reading!

Edited September 23, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Best Player Available]

Shut him down for the next two games. There going to be blowouts with or without him.

Bring him back afterwords so he can be part of the 4 wins his team will celebrate this season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Looks like he's not playing.

 

So Good. If he's that limited, sit the guy and let him heal up. They're gonna be Blowout City with or without him, and giving him extra rest worked for us last year. Just why not make the decision before asking him to play on a short week? He could have had 2 weeks going into this Sunday.

 

 

@MatthewFairburn

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

 

 

Now this is ridiculous! If having his foot stepped on during a walk through can set him back, how is he supposed to deal with a DB stomping on his foot full force 20 plays a game ('cuz we know they all target the weak spot, that's part of the game)? If that's the problem, shouldn't they be rigging up some sort of brace or shield to spread out the force and protect his foot? I'm reminded of when Kyle Williams had a bone spur and they were cutting off the back of his cleats and taping and I was like "Seriously? that's the best you can do with modern polymer science at your disposal, Bills? Seriously?"

Edited September 23, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BringBackFergy]

 

So Good. If he's limited, sit the guy and let him heal up. They're gonna be Blowout City with or without him, and giving him extra rest worked for us last year. Just why not make the decision before asking him to play on a short week? He could have had 2 weeks going into this Sunday.

 

 

Now this is ridiculous! If having his foot stepped on during a walk through can set him back, how is he supposed to deal with a DB stomping on his foot full force 20 plays a game ('cuz we know they all target the weak spot, that's part of the game)? If that's the problem, shouldn't they be rigging up some sort of brace or shield to spread out the force and protect his foot? I'm reminded of when Kyle Williams had a bone spur and they were cutting off the back of his cleats and taping and I was like "Seriously? that's the best you can do with modern polymer science at your disposal, Bills? Seriously?"

My biggest gripe with Sammy is not that he had to have surgery for a fracture...yes, I understand that. It was the fact that he finished the season and then waited until April or May to have the surgery. He could have had it on January 4th (or whenever our season ended). He put off the inevitable and the result was a rushed recovery with lingering problems. Not sure whose decision it was to delay the surgery 4 months, but that was boneheaded IMO.

[Philo]

 

OK, first of all, I don't think the targets for Watkins are as off-kilter as some think. That said, I think there are a few obvious systematic reasons fans tend to miss:

1) Bills offense overall runs a below average number of plays. 2014 - 17th and 2015 - 21st in the league. So far this year, we have run 98 plays in 2 games, dead last

2) Within that already below-average number of plays, we ran a relatively low number of pass plays last year. 2014 with Orton/Marrone, 57% pass (only a bit low) Last year 46% pass plays (very low, 31st in the league).

3) In 2014, 25% pass plays were short passes to RBs. In 2015, 17% (but the overall number of pass plays was also 10% lower).

 

If you have a low number of plays, low percentage of pass plays, and high percentage check downs or design plays to RBs, that spells a lower number of chances for the WR. Any WR.

 

But let's look under the hood and see what that means on a per-game basis, then compare to the Bengals as a team with a high-drafted WR which was where the Bills want to be (playoffs, winning record) in 2015.

 

For the Bills, 465 pass plays less the RB receptions comes to 24 pass plays per game targeting the WR/TE. Sammy is averaging under 8 targets per game (7.6). So out of the potential targets, last year Sammy got just under 1/3, 32%.

About 1/3 are going to the TEs and 1/3 were split between the other WR, with most going to Woods (Woods averages 6 targets per game). (I know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

Let's compare to the 2015 Bengals. I have always thought Watkins was drafted to be to EJ, what AJ Green has been to Andy Dalton since their 1st season together. Every time I see the Bengals play, there are 2-3 throws per game that I'm like "how did Green catch that?" No question he has made Dalton a more successful QB and he is "legit" one of the best WR in the game with 5 successive >1000 yd seasons and top-10 in the league for yds/game.

 

Career wise, Green has just over 9 targets per game, or about 1.5 targets/game more than Sammy. The Bengals, 7th in the NFL on "points for" offense, ran fewer offensive plays than the Bills last year (1004)The Bengals passed 50% of the time, so they still had 505 pass plays. 143 of these passes were to RB (counting Jones as a WR). So the Bengals are sending ~23 passes/game to the WR or TE - not that different from the Bills. Of those passes targeting TE/WR, the Bengals sent just over 1/3, 36%, Green's way (again, this comes to between 1-2 extra targets per game). (I still know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

But wait a minute, targets don't tell the whole story. What about catch % and YPR in 2015? Green: 65% catch percentage, 15.1 YPR, 81.1 YPG Watkins: 63% catch percentage, 17.5 YPR, 80.5 YPG. Green: 2 drops out of 132 targets (1.5%). Watkins 3 drops out of 96 targets (3.1%). It should be noted that drops have a subjective element - if it hits the receiver's hand and is judged catchable, it's a drop but may still be a difficult catch. 2% lower catch percentage would equate to 1 less reception every 4 games for a receiver being targeted 10x per game.

 

Got to be there to catch the ball. Watkins missed 3 games last year. Green missed 3 games in 2014. And when he's there, Watkins is racking up similar stats

 

So, based on Football Facts, it must be concluded that Watkins compared well against a 1st round draft choice playing for a successful team with a 2nd tier QB. The principal difference appears to be that Watkins got on average, 1-2 fewer targets per game. He has ~2% lower catch percentage, of which ~1.5% are judged drops (note subjectivity involved in drops stat). Although the Bengals passed more often (31 vs 29 times per game) he Bills and Bengals have thrown to WR/TE a similar amount - 23 or 24 times per game.

 

Which gets back to the point that although balls were thrown to WR/TE a similar amount, the Bengals ran 2 more pass plays per game than the Bills.

 

There are things it's hard for fans, even fans watching all-22, to tell:

1) is he running the correct route in the correct way? If he's not where the QB expects him to be, he likely won't get targeted.

There was talk among former player pundits (Largent I think?) that in 2014, the Bills WR were not running very good routes (poor coaching?). Orton, who while limited,was an NFL-quality QB, reportedly laid into them when he took over at QB. Reportedly this has improved under Sanjay Lal, and I didn't hear the same talk last year.

2) is he open from the perspective of the QB? He can look open on film, but harder to tell the QB's perspective. This is especially true for a short QB/designed passing lanes situation - it's not enough for the WR to have good separation from the DB, he has to be in the right spot on the field so the QB has a clear shot at him. This comes back to a point someone made here about timing.

3) is the bottom line that the Bills passed 2x less per game than the Bengals, resulting in 1-2 less targets per game for Sammy? Presumably, some of the time the plays go to RB, they were intended to go to WR and pressure or coverage forced the check down. Are more of the Bengals plays just designed to go to Green, thus resulting in more targets even after many pass plays break down?

 

That's all I got right now. If you stuck with me this long, thanks for reading!

 

Great post! Thank you for taking the time to provide all that information. Very good food for thought.

[Best Player Available]

@MatthewFairburn

 

Rex Ryan said Sammy Watkins had his foot stepped on during a walk through. They'll see how he feels Sunday and decide if he'll play.

 

Would getting Sammy a pair of steel toed doc martins help?

[Tenhigh]

 

who stepped on his foot? Rob and Rex at the same time while jumping up and down? Were they wearing metal cleats during the walk-through? Why are our players stepping on each-other? This sounds like Rex trying to make excuses for what he sees as an impending blowout.

What in the world are you implying here?

[Peter]

Will a healthy Sammy Watkins every play for the Buffalo Bills?

 

I have absolutely nothing against Sammy. I do believe we overpaid for him at the time, but have been happy that he is on our team. Yet, has he ever been completely healthy while with the Bills? Ever? It seems as though he has something going on with his health all the time.

 

It would be nice if we had him healthy for a season. Is that too much to ask?

[jms62]

 

OK, first of all, I don't think the targets for Watkins are as off-kilter as some think. That said, I think there are a few obvious systematic reasons fans tend to miss:

1) Bills offense overall runs a below average number of plays. 2014 - 17th and 2015 - 21st in the league. So far this year, we have run 98 plays in 2 games, dead last

2) Within that already below-average number of plays, we ran a relatively low number of pass plays last year. 2014 with Orton/Marrone, 57% pass (only a bit low) Last year 46% pass plays (very low, 31st in the league).

3) In 2014, 25% pass plays were short passes to RBs. In 2015, 17% (but the overall number of pass plays was also 10% lower).

 

If you have a low number of plays, low percentage of pass plays, and high percentage check downs or design plays to RBs, that spells a lower number of chances for the WR. Any WR.

 

But let's look under the hood and see what that means on a per-game basis, then compare to the Bengals as a team with a high-drafted WR which was where the Bills want to be (playoffs, winning record) in 2015.

 

For the Bills, 465 pass plays less the RB receptions comes to 24 pass plays per game targeting the WR/TE. Sammy is averaging under 8 targets per game (7.6). So out of the potential targets, last year Sammy got just under 1/3, 32%.

About 1/3 are going to the TEs and 1/3 were split between the other WR, with most going to Woods (Woods averages 6 targets per game). (I know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

Let's compare to the 2015 Bengals. I have always thought Watkins was drafted to be to EJ, what AJ Green has been to Andy Dalton since their 1st season together. Every time I see the Bengals play, there are 2-3 throws per game that I'm like "how did Green catch that?" No question he has made Dalton a more successful QB and he is "legit" one of the best WR in the game with 5 successive >1000 yd seasons and top-10 in the league for yds/game.

 

Career wise, Green has just over 9 targets per game, or about 1.5 targets/game more than Sammy. The Bengals, 7th in the NFL on "points for" offense, ran fewer offensive plays than the Bills last year (1004)The Bengals passed 50% of the time, so they still had 505 pass plays. 143 of these passes were to RB (counting Jones as a WR). So the Bengals are sending ~23 passes/game to the WR or TE - not that different from the Bills. Of those passes targeting TE/WR, the Bengals sent just over 1/3, 36%, Green's way (again, this comes to between 1-2 extra targets per game). (I still know there's an obvious counterpoint here, read on first please!)

 

But wait a minute, targets don't tell the whole story. What about catch % and YPR in 2015? Green: 65% catch percentage, 15.1 YPR, 81.1 YPG Watkins: 63% catch percentage, 17.5 YPR, 80.5 YPG. Green: 2 drops out of 132 targets (1.5%). Watkins 3 drops out of 96 targets (3.1%). It should be noted that drops have a subjective element - if it hits the receiver's hand and is judged catchable, it's a drop but may still be a difficult catch. 2% lower catch percentage would equate to 1 less reception every 4 games for a receiver being targeted 10x per game.

 

Got to be there to catch the ball. Watkins missed 3 games last year. Green missed 3 games in 2014. And when he's there, Watkins is racking up similar stats

 

So, based on Football Facts, it must be concluded that Watkins compared well against a 1st round draft choice playing for a successful team with a 2nd tier QB. The principal difference appears to be that Watkins got on average, 1-2 fewer targets per game. He has ~2% lower catch percentage, of which ~1.5% are judged drops (note subjectivity involved in drops stat). Although the Bengals passed more often (31 vs 29 times per game) he Bills and Bengals have thrown to WR/TE a similar amount - 23 or 24 times per game.

 

Which gets back to the point that although balls were thrown to WR/TE a similar amount, the Bengals ran 2 more pass plays per game than the Bills.

 

There are things it's hard for fans, even fans watching all-22, to tell:

1) is he running the correct route in the correct way? If he's not where the QB expects him to be, he likely won't get targeted.

There was talk among former player pundits (Largent I think?) that in 2014, the Bills WR were not running very good routes (poor coaching?). Orton, who while limited,was an NFL-quality QB, reportedly laid into them when he took over at QB. Reportedly this has improved under Sanjay Lal, and I didn't hear the same talk last year.

2) is he open from the perspective of the QB? He can look open on film, but harder to tell the QB's perspective. This is especially true for a short QB/designed passing lanes situation - it's not enough for the WR to have good separation from the DB, he has to be in the right spot on the field so the QB has a clear shot at him. This comes back to a point someone made here about timing.

3) is the bottom line that the Bills passed 2x less per game than the Bengals, resulting in 1-2 less targets per game for Sammy? Presumably, some of the time the plays go to RB, they were intended to go to WR and pressure or coverage forced the check down. Are more of the Bengals plays just designed to go to Green, thus resulting in more targets even after many pass plays break down?

 

That's all I got right now. If you stuck with me this long, thanks for reading!

 

Really Good Job with this dude.