Rex and YPPT, what you should be concerned with

[Mikie2times]

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why.

 

2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT

2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT

2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT

2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT

2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT

2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT

2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT

 

Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency.

 

This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[boyst]

i appreciate the information and i value metrics used to show success or failure. but beyond the metric stats, beyond the information passed to generate the fact that our defense regressed in 2015 and is likely for a downward trending swing - it is clear that rex ryan did not do us any favors.

 

there isn't much to look forward to in thinking about 2016 because the reality is we still remember 2015. while offense is fun and gets all the glamour we were reminded that defense rules the day in the super bowl. hopefully, this sent the necessary chills down everyone's back to wake us up. our defense needs stout improvement if we are going to be a serious playoff team. our offense can win us ball games.

[Mikie2times]

i appreciate the information and i value metrics used to show success or failure. but beyond the metric stats, beyond the information passed to generate the fact that our defense regressed in 2015 and is likely for a downward trending swing - it is clear that rex ryan did not do us any favors.

 

there isn't much to look forward to in thinking about 2016 because the reality is we still remember 2015. while offense is fun and gets all the glamour we were reminded that defense rules the day in the super bowl. hopefully, this sent the necessary chills down everyone's back to wake us up. our defense needs stout improvement if we are going to be a serious playoff team. our offense can win us ball games.

Thanks, I actually was looking for as much half full data as I could. Sort of trying to look at this thru the lens of Rex Ryan minus the 2015 season. Reality is, I have a hard time coming to a happy place even though I still hold out hope that things are possible. Those thoughts are based on nothing to do with 2015. In general terms, my hypothesis, Rex has failed to adapt to the league wide aerial assault. His roots were based on learning defenses and defensive styles from a different era. While I think going run and being contrarian on offense is solid (as more and more defenses shift to pass defenders), staying large and over sized at LB, not building on 3rd down defenders at LB, not having a more modern 3-4 edge focused defense (Denver) vs being multiple. I just don't know if he understand how to adapt his system to today's game. Factor that in with an uncanny consistency to allow offenses to convert what yards they do generate into points. Just little to work with even subtracting out the 2015 Bills.

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[maddenboy]

good thing we brought in his brother Rob. Just in time.

[metzelaars_lives]

If you give up the least yards, it only stands to reason that your YPPT would be hardest to keep low. If you gave up a s**t ton of yards and a lot of points as well, your YPPT would be average. Why don't you just tell us where his Jets defenses ranked in terms of total points allowed. This is a relatively meaningless statistic.

Edited May 24, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[Fadingpain]

Interesting metric.

 

I think Rex is expected to get the defense up to snuff this season, and he knows it.

 

I also think he could be sacked if he doesn't and the season is another disappointment.

 

The story of this season is going to be the development of Tyrod, and the development or lack thereof of the D.

[Mikie2times]

If you give up the least yards, it only stands to reason that your YPPT would be hardest to keep low.

Define this in actual terms, correlation is less than .20 which is considered a low to non existent relationship.

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[BarleyNY]

Perhaps that's a function of Rex's defense putting a lot of pressure on the CBs? It's good at stuffing plays, but leaves the defense susceptible to giving up big plays. That would make sense.

[YattaOkasan]

Man lost my post. Thanks for your post; I like the data set.

 

To reply for Metz it sounds like he is saying there is an inverse correlation between the yard rank and YPPT. R2 of 0.2 seems low but sounds reasonable. I would set the alpha on the slope of the line to be 0.05 or 0.1 to see if there is statistical significance. Should be easy enough to run/show.

 

I am also interested in the relationship between offensive performance and YPPT. I don't think its a coincidence that the only year Rex had a higher yards rank then YPPT rank was the year he had his best offense.

 

I do think you draw too many conclusions on this data set alone (Rex not building 3rd down LB's; edge versus multiple) unless you have lots of data you are not showing.

 

Either way thanks again for posting and I would love to know the source because I'm bored and need to practice some stats. Maybe it would be a fun multivariate project.

Edited May 24, 2016 by YattaOkasan

[BillnutinHouston]

I don't mean to be obtuse, but in one sentence or less, what is it that I should be concerned with?

[LeGOATski]

Seems to coincide with the quality of his OC/talent on offense.

 

He had Schottenheimer, I think, in 09-10 with a great running game (Tomlinson) and those teams got to the AFCC. In 2015, he's back up to #15 YPPT with a good OC. And hopefully the entire defense is #allin this year

I'm guessing because a good offense generally gives the defense better field position.

 

I have no idea what the actual numbers are, though.

[Mikie2times]

If you give up the least yards, it only stands to reason that your YPPT would be hardest to keep low. If you gave up a s**t ton of yards and a lot of points as well, your YPPT would be average. Why don't you just tell us where his Jets defenses ranked in terms of total points allowed. This is a relatively meaningless statistic.

11 Cincinnati 1

7 Kansas City 2

21 Pittsburgh 3

13 Minnesota 4

23 Los Angeles 5

9 New England 6

15 Green Bay 7

2 Seattle 8

6 Carolina 9

5 Arizona 10

 

2015 Yards Rank Left, YPPT Rank Right

 

RK TEAM YPPT

24 Arizona 1

7 Kansas City 2

16 Houston 3

8 Baltimore 4

13 New England 5

23 Cleveland 6

4 Buffalo 7

2 Detroit 8

1 Seattle 9

22 Cincinnati 10

 

2015 Yards Rank Left, YPPT Rank Right

 

You see why the statistic has so much variance year to year on defense. Offense does play a role and so does special teams. Turnovers play a role. After that all your defensive factors and the strategy of the defense itself. Notice Denver not cracking the top 10 in 2015? Why is that? Why does the list have so many repeats but in repeating, doing so with different profiles as far as yardage? How do teams with bad defenses rank high? What is the path toward success, that's a lot of playoff teams, can you even make the playoffs being very inefficient in this area? It's hard to crack the top 10. The formula on how they did it/do it is all completely different. Consistency is rare and poor performance is nearly certain if this rating is poor. The margins aren't big enough to lose this measure of efficiency and still win. You asked for the PPG profile and here it is. Pretty much reflective of the data in my opinion. Rex discusses being #1 always in terms of yards, never points. I would love for a reporter to ask him why that is and back it up with data that I'm discussing and see what his response is. Not trying to put him on blast, I just want to know his opinion.

 

PPG

2015 #15

2014 #24

2013 #19

2012 #20

2011 #20

2010 #6

2009 #1

 

Perhaps that's a function of Rex's defense putting a lot of pressure on the CBs? It's good at stuffing plays, but leaves the defense susceptible to giving up big plays. That would make sense.

 

That's the million dollar question. He has had poor offense which can contribute poorly to this metric. Bad special teams can also contribute poorly. Then you have his overall strategy, which is highly aggressive. To your point, that would seem to be a logical conclusion to form. Sort of the anti Walt Corey. All I know is that the trend is concerning. It is very hard to win showing negative performance in this area. I would venture to say no team has qualified for the playoffs with a net YPPT rating 1 standard deviation below average in probably a long time. So to see such consistency which is rare and for it to be so low, it is concerning for those that hope he can break thru. Looking at PPG, what is he even breaking thru too?

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[The Big Cat]

being ranked low means teams had to gain fewer yards to score points? isn't that mostly a result of field position?

[Mikie2times]

 

I do think you draw too many conclusions on this data set alone (Rex not building 3rd down LB's; edge versus multiple) unless you have lots of data you are not showing.

 

Either way thanks again for posting and I would love to know the source because I'm bored and need to practice some stats. Maybe it would be a fun multivariate project.

I wasn't basing that opinion at all on the data I presented. I'm cautious to draw many hard conclusion on the data I presented. Other than 1. His consistency in this area is concerning 2. Something is likely creating consistency in this area or many somethings and it's possible those something still exist. 3. Poor performance in this area is a death blow.

[LeGOATski]

I wasn't basing that opinion at all on the data I presented. I'm cautious to draw many hard conclusion on the data I presented. Other than 1. His consistency in this area is concerning 2. Something is likely creating consistency in this area or many somethings and it's possible those something still exist. 3. Poor performance in this area is a death blow.

Getting back up to the top half of the league last year is good though, right?

[Mikie2times]

being ranked low means teams had to gain fewer yards to score points? isn't that mostly a result of field position?

Field position plays a role as do many other factors. I have yet to be able to pin down one piece of data with a very strong relationship. Sometimes you see good YPPT with high turnovers, sometimes you see it helped having a great offense, sometimes you see it with great special teams, combinations of all the above, but generally unique to each team and not prone to heavy consistency.

[YoloinOhio]

have we been mathematically eliminated yet?

[Mikie2times]

have we been mathematically eliminated yet?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, it's late in the year, we have a chance still.

[YoloinOhio]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, it's late in the year, we have a chance still.

so still #inthehunt

[Johnny Hammersticks]

have we been mathematically eliminated yet?

It's not November yet!

[The Big Cat]

Field position plays a role as do many other factors. I have yet to be able to pin down one piece of data with a very strong relationship. Sometimes you see good YPPT with high turnovers, sometimes you see it helped having a great offense, sometimes you see it with great special teams, combinations of all the above, but generally unique to each team and not prone to heavy consistency.

 

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

Edited May 24, 2016 by The Big Cat

[Maury Ballstein]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

[Mikie2times]

 

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

Three and outs have no impact on this stat unless it resulted in worse field position. Turnovers do play a role as does giving up points on turnovers as it's the defenses job to not let that happen. The 2015 Bills finished 8th in the league in turnovers given up, so they didn't do much to hurt Rex in that area. As for ST's, is it a pattern at this point that his units under perform? Maybe that's a common denominator and certainly his previous poor offenses didn't help him. You don't think another common denominator is his no bend only break defensive style? He puts his corners on islands all the time. He runs a high risk/reward scheme. He got every advantage outside of ST in 2015 to break thru in this area, with ST likely part of his own negative contribution and while he showed his first inverse relationship with yards, he still didn't crack the top 15.

[4merper4mer]

But if you have a team that goes three and out a lot, has poor coverage, turns the ball over frequently and gives up points on turnovers and ST then you have a metric which be very negatively impacted yet will have virtually no correlation to the team's defense...

 

And given what Rex's offenses have...uh...achieved since 2009, I can't really say that this has anything to do with his defenses, which he--as a coach--has been largely defined by. Sorry, just not buying what your selling here.

 

What were the Ravens rankings when he coached the defenses there?

OMFG here we go with Tyrod causing Rex to suck for 6 years again.

[The Big Cat]

Three and outs have no impact on this stat unless it resulted in worse field position. Turnovers do play a role as does giving up points on turnovers as it's the defenses job to not let that happen. The 2015 Bills finished 8th in the league in turnovers given up, so they didn't do much to hurt Rex in that area. As for ST's, is it a pattern at this point that his units under perform? Maybe that's a common denominator and certainly his previous poor offenses didn't help him. You don't think another common denominator is his no bend only break defensive style? He puts his corners on islands all the time. He runs a high risk/reward scheme. He got every advantage outside of ST in 2015 to break thru in this area, with ST likely part of his own negative contribution and while he showed his first inverse relationship with yards, he still didn't crack the top 15.

 

I think we've adequately addressed all the factors that makes the metric weak...on its own.

 

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that I think we'd be able to draw many more conclusions from this ONE stat if we knew more about how the teams finished in all the categories that would impact it. And three and outs would absolutely impact it, unless the majority of a team's voluminous three and outs came after turnovers or good ST's positioning. A three and out from your own 20, and your opponent is likely taking close to mid-field.

 

OMFG here we go with Tyrod causing Rex to suck for 6 years again.

 

Didn't a bunch of you spend three days in another thread, hand-in-hand, congratulating one another on your misunderstood desires for balanced, reasonable, constructive dialogue?

Edited May 24, 2016 by The Big Cat

[Mikie2times]

 

I think we've adequately addressed all the factors that makes the metric weak...on its own.

 

EDIT: I guess what I'm saying is that I think we'd be able to draw many more conclusions from this ONE stat if we knew more about how the teams finished in all the categories that would impact it. And three and outs would absolutely impact it, unless the majority of a team's voluminous three and outs came after turnovers or good ST's positioning. A three and out from your own 20, and your opponent is likely taking close to mid-field.

I don't expect you to think I would provide all the data you're requesting, but let's simplify. Let's look at average yards per offensive drive (the encompasses short fields based on three and outs as well as turnovers). So Buffalo ranked 27th in 2014 in yards per offensive drive, yet 7th in YPPT on defense. So while Rex did suffer from poor offenses in the past, that doesn't make performing efficiently in this area impossible. The Bills 2014 squad beat the best year Rex ever had as an HC with the 27th worst offense. Here is the data when he was with Baltimore. Again, a unique ability to be top 10 in yards and horrible in YPPT. All we need to do is finish 1st or 2nd in the NFL in Yards and we can be efficient as a defense in Rex's system. That or a delorean.

 

2015 19 15

2014 6 30

2013 11 23

2012 8 25

2011 5 29

2010 3 14

2009 1 8

2008 2 3

2007 6 30

2006 1 1

2005 5 19

Edited May 24, 2016 by KzooMike

[Big C]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

I think we are looking for 1.61803398875

 

Or maybe 23?

Edited May 24, 2016 by Big C

[jr1]

Forget math. You just need to be the alpha

[machine gun kelly]

Keep it simple. Points allowed and yards allowed over time tells more than enough of the story.

[BarleyNY]

I think we are looking for 1.61803398875

Or maybe 23?

Wow. A golden ratio reference. I'm floored.

[hondo in seattle]

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why.

 

2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT

2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT

2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT

2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT

2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT

2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT

2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT

 

Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency.

 

This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

 

 

Yep, his mediocrity with YPPT is a "death blow." Yet the Jets made it to the AFC Championship games in 2009 and 2010. If not on the strength of Rex's defense, did the Jets pass their way to the AFC Championship games on the strength of Sanchez's arm?

 

In those years, the Jets D was ranked #1 and #3 respectively in yards allowed - but only #8 and #14 in YPPT. So which stat more accurately predicts the success the Jets enjoyed those years.

 

 

There are so many stats out there, if you want us to (1) believe YPPT better correlates to winning than the others, and (2) YPPT shows Rex will be a failure in Buffalo, I think you need to make a stronger argument.

 

Personally, I'm a simple guy. As I see it, other teams try to gain yards on their way to scoring points. For a long while (Baltimore included), Rex was good at fielding defenses that made it difficult for other teams to gain those yards. So I'm cautiously optimistic about Rex's ability to run a good D in Buffalo.

[chris heff]

Where does 3.14159265359 come into play at ?

I like Pi.

[4merper4mer]

I don't expect you to think I would provide all the data you're requesting, but let's simplify. Let's look at average yards per offensive drive (the encompasses short fields based on three and outs as well as turnovers). So Buffalo ranked 27th in 2014 in yards per offensive drive, yet 7th in YPPT on defense. So while Rex did suffer from poor offenses in the past, that doesn't make performing efficiently in this area impossible. The Bills 2014 squad beat the best year Rex ever had as an HC with the 27th worst offense. Here is the data when he was with Baltimore. Again, a unique ability to be top 10 in yards and horrible in YPPT. All we need to do is finish 1st or 2nd in the NFL in Yards and we can be efficient as a defense in Rex's system. That or a delorean.

 

2015 19 15

2014 6 30

2013 11 23

2012 8 25

2011 5 29

2010 3 14

2009 1 8

2008 2 3

2007 6 30

2006 1 1

2005 5 19

 

 

Stop using a single defensive statistic to refute his notion that a single offensive statistic is the cause for our horrible defensive results.

 

Personally I disagree with both assertions. Neither a single bad offensive stat nor a single bad defensive stat is the cause. A single bad coach is actually the cause.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

There are advanced stats from like 10 different websites that take many more factors into account than this metric. They would all agree we were bad last year. They would also all agree that many of Rex's defenses were good to very good.

Edited May 24, 2016 by dneveu

[4merper4mer]

There are advanced stats from like 10 different websites that take many more factors into account than this metric. They would all agree we were bad last year. They would also all agree that many of Rex's defenses were good to very good.

 

They would also agree that the Model T Ford was truly innovative and would lose this year's Indy 500 by a lot.

Edited May 24, 2016 by 4merper4mer

[YattaOkasan]

I wasn't basing that opinion at all on the data I presented. I'm cautious to draw many hard conclusion on the data I presented. Other than 1. His consistency in this area is concerning 2. Something is likely creating consistency in this area or many somethings and it's possible those something still exist. 3. Poor performance in this area is a death blow.

Thanks for responding. You had gotten into a part about 3rd down LBs which was where I got concerned. The inconsistency is interesting. I would love to play around with the data set if you would share the source (PM if you like). Thanks again.

[dave mcbride]

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why.

 

2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT

2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT

2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT

2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT

2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT

2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT

2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT

 

Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency.

 

This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

 

The Jets' defense average drive start position over the years (with a lower ranking meaning that opposing offenses were closer to the end zone):

 

2009: 13

2010: 5

2011: 21

2012: 23

2013: 26

2014: 23

2015: 21 (Bills)

 

That's a pretty telling stat line.

 

There are other stats that factor in too: turnover percentage per drive for both the Jets offense and defense; percentage of points allowed per drive, etc. The fact that the Bills turned the ball over so infrequently last year helped the Bills defense's points allowed ranking. No pick sixes, I don't think ...

Edited May 24, 2016 by dave mcbride

[metzelaars_lives]

This statistic is basically a measure of your "bend-but-not-break-edness." If you had two defenses who each gave up the same number of points but one team gave up way less yards, then the team that gave up way more yards would have a way better YPPT. Which one is a better defense? You act like Rex is somehow trying to deceive people by talking about where his defenses "ranked." In the 30+ years I've been a football fan, when anyone says this or that team has the whatever-th ranked offense or defense, they're talking about yards. Period. Points allowed is just as good (and probably a better) measure than points. But YPPT is useless and here's why: You could have a team give up an historic amount of yards and only the 7th most points. They could have an excellent YPPT. You could have a team give up historically few yards and allow the 7th fewest points and their YPPT could suck. It just doesn't matter man. As an earlier poster said, just stick with where his defenses ranked in yards and points allowed. That tells enough of the story.

Edited May 25, 2016 by metzelaars_lives