Belichick coached his team out of the superbowl

[Beerball]

Nah. TD and 2 pointer is essentially TD and another TD (like 4th and goal).

 

Kick that chip shot FG and the Gronk TD wins. Denver's Offense gave up right after the second Q. NE knew they were going to get another shot (got 2).

Twas sarcasm, I think you kick the figgy too.

[John in Jax]

BTW I was on a plane going from NH to Orlando and everyone had the game on their phones, tablets and laptops. You should have heard the collective cheers to groans, then whining.

Really? So lots of people were paying those outrageous airline wi-fi fees? Surprised at that.

[Chilly]

Brady vs Bills - 13 hits, 11 hurries, 1 INT (plus 1 negated by penalty), 20 pts, 18 1st downs, 1 TD, 35.1 qbr (no Mario) at home

 

Brady vs Broncos -16 hits, 18 hurries, 2 INT, 18 pts, 20 1st downs, 1 TD, 56.4 qbr on the road

 

It isn't as if it was night and day. likely, Wade was the one who took notes from Rex's MNF D as well.

I doubt Wade used our blitzing scheme.

 

 

DEN blitzed less than any Phillips D since 2007, got most pressure on Brady in playoff game since 2007 SB https://t.co/gMXHM9FAtw

[billsfan_34]

For years everything has bounced the Pats way. Yesterday wasnt the case at all. Gronk screaming for a PI in the endzone when he was covered by three guys and no PI and didnt get the call haha. And Gostkowski missing the extra point was huge. Something that doesnt happen to them happened. And going for it on 4th down when the normally convert they didnt- they should of got the 3 points. Yesterday they got a nice dose of their own medicine. Oh and wasnt it lovely to see Tommy boy get the snot knocked out of him?

[dpberr]

Manning should retire after the Super Bowl no matter what.

 

Brady looked tired and old yesterday. I think age and injury caught up to the Pats this year. They were lights out first half of the season and hit a very big wall.

[Maury Ballstein]

Meh. He's gonna coach them to 12 wins and a playoff berth next year.

 

It ain't over.

[chris heff]

I couldn't believe they didn't kick the FG. It was dumb. Why play for a tie?

 

What does their OL look like going forward? I know they had some injuries. If healthy and exclusive of FA and draft, is that line still bad? My favorite play was when they put in an extra lineman and Miller just ran around him to hit Brady.

[ALF]

Among the rule proposals unveiled by the Competition Committee is a suggestion by the Patriots to move the spot of extra point kicks back from the 2-yard line to the 25-yard line.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has said several times that he believes extra points have become so easy that they’re all but meaningless, so it’s not surprising that it was the Patriots who proposed this new rule.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/19/patriots-propose-making-extra-points-harder/

Good suggestion hoodie

[Gordio]

That was one of the worst QB'd conference championship games I've ever witnessed. Meanwhile Cam looked unstoppable. I think Denver's D keeps them in it for a while, but Carolina's D is no joke either, and I think Denver struggles to score more than 17 points, and loses by at least 10.

 

 

I have been wrong about this before but it just seems different this time. Brady will be 40 next year. Guys in their 40s are not supposed to play football in the NFL at a high level. They better fix that line or he will not make it thru the season next year. Denver's D will keep them in it for awhile. I just don't see Manning making enough plays to beat Carolina.

[blzrul]

I would have taken the 3, twice. That would leave them behind by 2. It's just math. Sometimes arrogance can come back and bite you, Bill. Tough loss.

[Luxy312]

Belichick's hubris beat the Patriots yesterday. Like he's done so many times, he forgoes what should be an easy call to do what he thinks his team can do at will. 2/3 of the time he gets away with it. How many 4th and 2's have we seen near their own 40 yard line that they pick up? Plenty, but not what you do playing against the #1 defense in the NFL. If he sets the arrogance aside, the field goal was the easy call and the Patriots would have been playing for their 2nd Superbowl in a row. Instead, weepy Tom Brady can watch it from his sofa.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I couldn't believe they didn't kick the FG. It was dumb. Why play for a tie?

 

What does their OL look like going forward? I know they had some injuries. If healthy and exclusive of FA and draft, is that line still bad? My favorite play was when they put in an extra lineman and Miller just ran around him to hit Brady.

 

Ha ha oh yeah, that was sweet.

 

Also the Pats OL was holding and tackling and other nasty skullduggery almost every play. How sweet it was that the Broncs made it not matter.

[Chilly]

http://nyt4thdownbot.com

 

Pretty clear statistics says Belichick made the right call, even if it didn't work out.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I couldn't believe they didn't kick the FG. It was dumb. Why play for a tie?

 

What does their OL look like going forward? I know they had some injuries. If healthy and exclusive of FA and draft, is that line still bad? My favorite play was when they put in an extra lineman and Miller just ran around him to hit Brady.

 

The big loss on OL was Nate Solder at LT. Solder is a far better LT than Vollmer, who moved over from the right to replace him. And Vollmer is a far better RT than Marcus Cannon on the right.

So practically speaking, the Pats were playing backups at both tackle positions. They were also missing a lot of their run game with Blount.

 

But you know, normally Belichick has been genius at cobbling together a workable OL line out of scrap iron and baling wire, helped by Brady's quick release. I haven't gone back and watched the film but it seems to me a lot of the pressure on Brady was coverage pressure. Whatever the Denver secondary did, they did well enough to confuse Brady, lure him into 2 picks, then cause him to hesitate enough for their front 7 to get there.

 

The Superbowl will show if the Denver D is as good as advertised.

[dave mcbride]

http://nyt4thdownbot.com

 

Pretty clear statistics says Belichick made the right call, even if it didn't work out.

If you believe the bot is always right even though it doesn't account for the team they're facing and the fact that the Pats o-line was playing terribly and the fact that Denver couldn't move the ball ...

[26CornerBlitz]

@AroundTheNFL

Bill Belichick: 'No hesitation' in skipping FG tries http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000628073/article/belichick-no-hesitation-in-skipping-fg-tries

[Hapless Bills Fan]

http://nyt4thdownbot.com

 

Pretty clear statistics says Belichick made the right call, even if it didn't work out.

 

I think this is a clear illustration of the limitations of relying exclusively on statistics to make game-day decisions. Overall, statistically, sure it's the right call.

Yesterday day, the Pats OL was being manhandled and mutilated by the Denver D, taking the sure® points might have been the situationally best decision.

 

The Bot brings up a good point that I haven't seen discussed yet - Kubiak's decision to punt, 4th and 1 on the Pats 46 with the Broncos leading by 5. In the end, they squeaked by, but if they could have converted, an extra 7 or 6 or 3 points would have come in mightly handy at the end. What does lacking faith in your playcalling and players to get 1 yard in that circumstance say?

 

If the Pats had pulled it off, that is surely one of the calls that would be second-guessed in Denver this am. But they didn't, so it isn't.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Hopeful

[clearwater cadet]

This just in! Bill Belichick demoted to d-line coach, pats hire Doug Marrone as coach, John Bon Jovi as GM.

[Chilly]

If you believe the bot is always right even though it doesn't account for the team they're facing and the fact that the Pats o-line was playing terribly and the fact that Denver couldn't move the ball ...

Which they take into account in the details in each call. For example:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/201601240071213

 

The coach and I agree that going for it is the thing to do here, but you may be thinking it makes sense to attempt a field goal. That would be the right call if you think the Patriots chances of converting on fourth down are less than 58 percent. But based on my analysis, Id give the Patriots a 68 percent chance to get a first down here.

 

There are very few situations I personally wouldn't go for it on fourth and one. The Patriots were averaging 4 yards per offensive play in that game, including incompletions and sacks. Yes, Denver's defense was playing excellent but it was still more likely than not that they would pick up a first down.

 

I'm thrilled they didn't but it was the correct call.

I think this is a clear illustration of the limitations of relying exclusively on statistics to make game-day decisions. Overall, statistically, sure it's the right call.

Yesterday day, the Pats OL was being manhandled and mutilated by the Denver D, taking the sure® points might have been the situationally best decision.

Even with getting manhandled the Patriots we're still averaging four yards per offensive play and they needed one.

[SWATeam]

Which they take into account in the details in each call. For example:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/201601240071213

 

 

 

There are very few situations I personally wouldn't go for it on fourth and one. The Patriots were averaging 4 yards per offensive play in that game, including incompletions and sacks. Yes, Denver's defense was playing excellent but it was still more likely than not that they would pick up a first down.

 

I'm thrilled they didn't but it was the correct call.

 

Even with getting manhandled the Patriots we're still averaging four yards per offensive play and they needed one.

The bigger point to me was that Denver had gone completely ultra conservative on offense. They were unlikely to get another first down and NE would have gotten it back only down 5

[Beerball]

http://nyt4thdownbot.com

Pretty clear statistics says Belichick made the right call, even if it didn't work out.

two weeks in a row in lose & go home games it turns out that isn't the case.

[boyst]

The broncos did what we have done before to beat the patriots. Execute tough assignments on the DL to take advantage of anything and everything and get to Brady. Let your DB's close everything down. Play to canvas the field. Brady won't throw to traffic like Manning will

[dulles]

I have never seen Brady look so weathered. His arms were all taped/bandaged. His ankles were taped up like balloons. He was often slow to get up. I have seen him take more abuse in the past half of this season than the rest of his career combined. That cant continue on his body pushing 40 no matter how many green drinks he has. I swear, I think his uniform got dirty like 5 times prior to 2008.

 

I think it is also clear that at this point (before offseason), the Patriots, even with Brady are ripe for the picking without Gronkowski and to some extent Edelman.

 

 

I would predict that Brady has one or two more good runs in him unless they can somehow construct a top offensive line. On paper, the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills should be able to bring the heat 6 times.

Don't forget the NFC West - they have some pretty good pass rushers too. This next year could be long for TB*

[dave mcbride]

Which they take into account in the details in each call. For example:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/201601240071213

 

 

 

There are very few situations I personally wouldn't go for it on fourth and one. The Patriots were averaging 4 yards per offensive play in that game, including incompletions and sacks. Yes, Denver's defense was playing excellent but it was still more likely than not that they would pick up a first down.

 

I'm thrilled they didn't but it was the correct call.

 

Even with getting manhandled the Patriots we're still averaging four yards per offensive play and they needed one.

I get all of that. The 3 was close to a sure thing, and they needed it because it prevented them from having to rely on a less than 50-50 proposition even if they did manage to get the first and score - a 2P conversion. Teams were 45-94 on 2P conversion tries this year - 47.9 percent (NE didn't convert any). It wasn't just about getting the TD there; it was about getting the TD AND the 2P conversion against the #1 defense, and a defense that didn't have to defend against the run because they knew the Pats would never rely on their atrocious running game in that situation. Take the 3P "conversion" there (which was what the FG effectively was) and then try to get the 6 on the next possession. Denver couldn't move the ball, after all - NE was going to get it back.

Edited January 25, 2016 by dave mcbride

[P51]

Yes! Pass rushers from both sides and LBs who can cover.

 

Dont forget 3 CB's who can cover, Ward at safety played as well as could be expected and as a unit did a phenomenal job on Gronk and Edelman.

 

That was a clinic in secondary play that is being over shadowed by the absurd performance of the front 6, who played lights out as mentioned! Lot of outside the box coverages moving/imixing guys around and a great game plan called by Wade Phillips who utilized all his personnel as well as I have ever seen, against Brady.

 

Belichick, went for the win and outside of Gronkowski going all superman in the 4th quarter the Pats offense nothing going for them all game. I dont think he lost the game any more than Denver's defense won the game, I dont know that he had much of a choice given the flow of the game in terms of going for it in the 4th, I thought it was repeatedly the right call.

[dulles]

I couldn't believe they didn't kick the FG. It was dumb. Why play for a tie?

 

What does their OL look like going forward? I know they had some injuries. If healthy and exclusive of FA and draft, is that line still bad? My favorite play was when they put in an extra lineman and Miller just ran around him to hit Brady.

I don't think they were playing for the tie. I think Hoodie was going for the win, with tie-insurance. You go for it on fourth down with 6 to go. You are banking on getting the ball back at least once, maybe twice. If you convert the fourth down, you have a chance to score 6, try for 2, and still come back to win on a FG late. I did not have a problem with the call at all...especially since it failed! But, I was not at all comfortable that the game was over at that point. TB* is never out, no matter how down he's been. He and BB truly are a remarkable pair. I still despise it when the win, but they deserve respect for always being there at the end. BTW, I actually saw BB say Thank You to an official after he was trying to get a time out yesterday...Maybe he is human!

[dave mcbride]

I don't think they were playing for the tie. I think Hoodie was going for the win, with tie-insurance. You go for it on fourth down with 6 to go. You are banking on getting the ball back at least once, maybe twice. If you convert the fourth down, you have a chance to score 6, try for 2, and still come back to win on a FG late. I did not have a problem with the call at all...especially since it failed! But, I was not at all comfortable that the game was over at that point. TB* is never out, no matter how down he's been. He and BB truly are a remarkable pair. I still despise it when the win, but they deserve respect for always being there at the end. BTW, I actually saw BB say Thank You to an official after he was trying to get a time out yesterday...Maybe he is human!

As I say above, by the numbers the 2P conversion is a less than 50-50 proposition. I didn't like the move.

[26CornerBlitz]

I get all of that. The 3 was close to a sure thing, and they needed it because it prevented them from having to rely on a less than 50-50 proposition even if they did manage to get the first and score - a 2P conversion. Teams were 45-94 on 2P conversion tries this year - 47.9 percent (NE didn't convert any). It wasn't just about getting the TD there; it was about getting the TD AND the 2P conversion against the #1 defense, and a defense that didn't have to defend against the run because they knew the Pats would never rely on their atrocious running game in that situation. Take the 3P "conversion" there (which was what the FG effectively was) and then try to get the 6 on the next possession. Denver couldn't move the ball, after all - NE was going to get it back.

 

I agree with your take.

[dave mcbride]

 

I agree with your take.

Just went through all of Denver's games this year. Including yesterday, teams were 0-4 on 2P conversions against them this season. Not a high percentage play, to put it mildly.

[Wraith]

As I say above, by the numbers the 2P conversion is a less than 50-50 proposition. I didn't like the move.

 

Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread.

 

The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD.

 

If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time.

[starrymessenger]

Meh. He's gonna coach them to 12 wins and a playoff berth next year.

It ain't over.

(unfortunately) I must agree.

Peyton is done. Brady not so much.

Switch QBs yesterday and Denver wins by 21 points.

[bisonbrigade]

Don't forget the last game of the season when they were working on their "running" game and were defeated by the Dolphins.

[nucci]

 

Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread.

 

The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD.

 

If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time.

They didn't....down by 8 with 6 minutes left....you kick the FG .....now within a TD to win.....very simple...It turns out they didn't make the right decision because they lost.

Edited January 25, 2016 by nucci

[dave mcbride]

 

Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread.

 

The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD.

 

If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time.

The problem with this logic is that it was actually 4th down. Not only was it 4th down, it was 4th and 2, which meant no sneak option. And they couldn't run the ball at all, so a rush wasn't going to happen. In that situation, things get simplified for the D - rush the passer like hell against their terrible tackles and jump the short routes. Which is what they did. Even on 3rd and 2 with those lousy runners and blockers, you've gotta protect against the run. Not so on 4th down. The Pats can only pass the ball there. The play didn't have a chance, Sometimes it's better to take the safe move and kick the FG -- a near-sure thing. When you don't have even a semblance of a running game, the calculus changes.

Don't forget the last game of the season when they were working on their "running" game and were defeated by the Dolphins.

Their rushers yesterday (Boldin and Jackson) were glacially slow and had absolutely no quickness. Painful to watch, actually.

Edited January 25, 2016 by dave mcbride

[49er Fan]

 

TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG

 

I agree with most others here - the way Denver was defending on 4th down you kick the FG and go for the TD after getting the ball back. Manning could barely throw the ball 10 yards in the 4th; NE got the ball back with over two minutes remaining.

[TUBSTER]

Don't forget going to Miami to practice their run game. The complete disrespect for the fish lost them homefield advantage. Love seeing Tommy knocked around.

He got hit so many times it was amazing.

[Marty McFly]

You could also argue going for it with 6 and change was an error. Kick the field goal there and they probably win on their last possession

That was in my opinion his game costing mistake, the way the rest of the game played out if he wuda took the fied goal they would have had a better chance of winning, not ust going to over time

[Utah John]

That was one of the worst QB'd conference championship games I've ever witnessed. Meanwhile Cam looked unstoppable. I think Denver's D keeps them in it for a while, but Carolina's D is no joke either, and I think Denver struggles to score more than 17 points, and loses by at least 10.

I don't think Denver will even get the 17 unless Carolina gifts a pick six. I respect Denver's D and Wade's craftiness, but I don't think they can keep Cam entirely under wraps. Panthers 24-10.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Wow, a whole lot of misunderstandings occurring in this thread.

 

The Patriots weren't playing for the tie nor were they depending on the two point conversion. Six minutes to go, down by eight. You can't plan on having a third possesion, so it's a TD+2 point conversion or a TD+FG. Either way, you need a TD. This drive was the deepest New England hand managed to drive on their own all game, as far they know it was the last best chance to get a TD. When New England beat the Giants earlier this year we saw what happens when your 2:00 drill only has to get in field goal range rather than score a TD.

 

If they score a TD on that drive, then they go for two and they're either tied with 5:00 left or down less than field goal with timeouts still available. The Patriots made the right decision, it just didn't work out. Happens all the time.

 

 

Of course you can. The pats D was killing the Broncos. After Denver scored their second TD one minute into the second Q, NE forced 7 punts and allowed only 2 FGs. You have to take the 3 points and let your D get you the ball back (which they did two more times before NE scored.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Mr. WEO

[Maddog69]

You could also argue going for it with 6 and change was an error. Kick the field goal there and they probably win on their last possession

That's exactly what I was saying at the time. I think that was a panic move.

 

Bottom line though is that the botched PAT doomed them. If that was made, the simply would've needed a PAT after the third TD to tie the game and probably go to OT.