YoloinOhio Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 (edited) Keep doing it - law of averages says we'll win it on Saturday! Buffalo cab drivers are now rooting for McDavid. Bar owners on Chippewa are rooting for Eichel Edited April 12, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I've ran that one numerous times and the Sabres never come up first. I ran it a hundred times and the Sabres won it 27 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 First piece in place. Nolan gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 @TSNBobMcKenzie: BUF GM Tim Murray has history with Babcock dating back to days in ANA. Sabre owner Terry Pegula has lot of $ and not likely to be outbid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/ I ran it 200 times. Sabres didn't get the first pick until late. Boston got the first pick 2 times in the first 11 runs. That was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 @TSNBobMcKenzie: BUF GM Tim Murray has history with Babcock dating back to days in ANA. Sabre owner Terry Pegula has lot of $ and not likely to be outbid. I thought Richardson coaching was the worst kept secret in the NHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 You have run the simulator 50 times. Buffalo Sabres Wins: 10 Win %: 20% Arizona Coyotes Wins: 7 Win %: 14% Carolina Hurricanes Wins: 7 Win %: 14% New Jersey Devils Wins: 6 Win %: 12% Philadelphia Flyers Wins: 4 Win %: 8% San Jose Sharks Wins: 4 Win %: 8% Edmonton Oilers Wins: 3 Win %: 6% Columbus Blue Jackets Wins: 2 Win %: 4% Florida Panthers Wins: 2 Win %: 4% Toronto Maple Leafs Wins: 2 Win %: 4% Colorado Avalanche Wins: 2 Win %: 4% Los Angeles Kings Wins: 1 Win %: 2% Sabres never finished lower than second Arizona was first 14% of the time, second 20% (every time the Sabres finished first), third 66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Sabres never finished lower than second If they finish lower than second, the simulator is busted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I ran it a hundred times and the Sabres won it 27 times. hey that's better than 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 If they finish lower than second, the simulator is busted... Along with the 20% AZ part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Maybe it's explained at that simulator you guys are doing, but how the hell does this thing work??: Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine randomly selects four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) is matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the Clubs to which each is assigned. The chart of assigned combinations will be posted at NHL.com on Friday, April 17. The complete process, including the video of the lottery drawing, also will be available on NHL.com after the lottery is conducted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Maybe it's explained at that simulator you guys are doing, but how the hell does this thing work??: Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine randomly selects four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) is matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the Clubs to which each is assigned. The chart of assigned combinations will be posted at NHL.com on Friday, April 17. The complete process, including the video of the lottery drawing, also will be available on NHL.com after the lottery is conducted. Wow that seems unnecessarily complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Wow that seems unnecessarily complicated. It's a lot easier than what most would suggest. Everyone always pictures one ball coming out of the machine with a painted on logo of the winning team. In order to run that setup, they'd need 1000 balls in the machine to match the probabilities that are laid out. That would be one massive lottery machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It's a lot easier than what most would suggest. Everyone always pictures one ball coming out of the machine with a painted on logo of the winning team. In order to run that setup, they'd need 1000 balls in the machine to match the probabilities that are laid out. That would be one massive lottery machine. You'd only need 200 balls and they don't necessarily have to be ping pong sized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 You'd only need 200 balls and they don't necessarily have to be ping pong sized. I would prefer names written on cut up pieces of computer paper and drawn from a used baseball cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 (edited) @TSNBobMcKenzie: BUF GM Tim Murray has history with Babcock dating back to days in ANA. Sabre owner Terry Pegula has lot of $ and not likely to be outbid. If you guys get Babcock that would be great. However, Babcock was supported by a superior farm system and they had Jim Nil in charge of scouting. That really was the key to the Red Wings success imho. Edited April 13, 2015 by Dante Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 (edited) You'd only need 200 balls and they don't necessarily have to be ping pong sized. Oops, I need to look at the new odds, not the old ones. But anyway, do they have lottery machines that don't use ping pong balls? Everything you ever see on tv is the ping pong ball. But either way, the earlier idea that this system unnecessarily complicates things is out the window. A 14 ball lottery is way more efficient than 200. Edit: And not that it matters much, but I'm curious about what the true probabilities in their approach are. The ones listed are actually rounded numbers. There are 1001 possible combinations and our chance is 20%. There's one number combination not accounted for in the draft lottery odds that we see. Not that it means much of anything, but I hope that one extra shot is ours. Edited April 13, 2015 by shrader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Why do you even need balls, etc. Just random generated numbers. The Sabres are assigned numbers 1-40, AZ gets the next 27, etc. I think this method has been devised so that nobody can accuse the league of fixing it - because nobody understands it! It's a lot easier than what most would suggest. Everyone always pictures one ball coming out of the machine with a painted on logo of the winning team. In order to run that setup, they'd need 1000 balls in the machine to match the probabilities that are laid out. That would be one massive lottery machine. So, how DOES it work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Why do you even need balls, etc. Just random generated numbers. The Sabres are assigned numbers 1-40, AZ gets the next 27, etc. I think this method has been devised so that nobody can accuse the league of fixing it - because nobody understands it! You answered your own question right there. People aren't going to trust a random number generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 And, people are going to trust this? How DOES it work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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