26CornerBlitz Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 How Incomplete Passes to Sammy Watkins Are Holding Back the Buffalo Bills' Offense Back in May, during the most boring part of the NFL calendar, I wrote an article discussing the value of an incomplete pass, and considered the damage teams were doing to their expected point outcomes by force-feeding their top receiver the football. You can check out that article here, if you'd like, but the takeaway was as follows: Teams with bad quarterbacks shouldn't force one receiver the ball, and teams with strong deep-threat receivers generally shouldn't force-feed their best receiver the ball, either. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and A.J. Green were the primary examples of receivers who were "hurting" their teams by being targeted so heavily, and negative outcomes seemed to happen more often when those receivers were being targeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infernus Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well when Sammy was the intended target on both ints thrown by Orton, I suppose you could say that it's holding them back, but I'm not sure that's Sammy's fault.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well if Sammy would do a better job of catching those passes it wouldn't hurt the team. The guy has made some great catches but he's also dropped quite a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Syracuse's OC and a QB who is average at best are holding back the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) The number of passes targeted for Woods and to a lesser extent Hogan in recent games would appear to counter the argument that Orton is 'forcing' a high number of attempts at Watkins. I suspect Watkins injuries are hampering his production and play. The Bills offense suffers from a lack of big plays and red zone production due to some combination of execution, personel use such as no use of Mike Wiliams known past proficiency in the red zone, and play calling. The first is up to the players and the latter two can be corrected by coaching staff decisions. Edited December 3, 2014 by All_Pro_Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Woods = best receiver on the team at this point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The number of passes targeted for Woods and to a lesser extent Hogan in recent games would appear to counter the argument that Orton is 'forcing' a high number of attempts at Watkins. I suspect Watkins injuries are hampering his production and play. The Bills offense suffers from a lack of big plays and red zone production due to some combination of execution, personel use such as no use of Mike Wiliams known past proficiency in the red zone, and play calling. The first is up to the players and the latter two can be corrected by coaching staff decisions. good post. It's crazy that we struggle in the red zone yet are not using a known red zone player. This coaching staff! Woods = best receiver on the team at this point in time IT's not the simple. Watkins draws the best cover and is the focal point of the defense. It makes Woods' job a lot easier. If Watkins wasn't on this team, Woods would be struggling too. He is a very good #2 wr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 good post. It's crazy that we struggle in the red zone yet are not using a known red zone player. This coaching staff! IT's not the simple. Watkins draws the best cover and is the focal point of the defense. It makes Woods' job a lot easier. If Watkins wasn't on this team, Woods would be struggling too. He is a very good #2 wr. I know it's not that simple, but I didn't feel like elaborating, to be honest. I only say that he's the best at this point in time because I think he's more consistent with catching catchable balls and he's healthier. I think Watkins is the best receiver on the team. I just don't think he's performing as well as he will end up performing with a) health and b) experience. I would love for Watkins/Woods to become another Moulds/Price. More of a 1 and 1A, than a 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Security Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 good post. It's crazy that we struggle in the red zone yet are not using a known red zone player. This coaching staff! IT's not the simple. Watkins draws the best cover and is the focal point of the defense. It makes Woods' job a lot easier. If Watkins wasn't on this team, Woods would be struggling too. He is a very good #2 wr. Not true. Woods did not struggle with Stevie Johnson here, and he was a crappy #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Not true. Woods did not struggle with Stevie Johnson here, and he was a crappy #1. What? Stevie was in the Sammy role last year. Woods gets #2 cbs and nevers faces bracket coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) Not true. Woods did not struggle with Stevie Johnson here, and he was a crappy #1. What? Stevie was in the Sammy role last year. Woods gets #2 cbs and nevers faces bracket coverage. You're both wrong, it was EJ's fault. Edited December 3, 2014 by The Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I know it's not that simple, but I didn't feel like elaborating, to be honest. I only say that he's the best at this point in time because I think he's more consistent with catching catchable balls and he's healthier. I think Watkins is the best receiver on the team. I just don't think he's performing as well as he will end up performing with a) health and b) experience. I would love for Watkins/Woods to become another Moulds/Price. More of a 1 and 1A, than a 1 and 2. Got'cha. The whole idea of #1 and #2 receivers is sort of stupid in the first place. But Watkins has far superior physical skills to Woods. That's why he is thought of to be a franchise type wr. Woods is great route runner but lacks the elite speed to be a true "#1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BfloBillsFan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Syracuse's OC and a QB who is average at best are holding back the offense. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think EVERY incomplete pass holds back an offense. Why are the ones toward Sammy any worse than any other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think throwing the ball to Hogan is holding the offense back. Orton loves to go to him on 3rd downs and it seems time and time again Hogan will make the catch but come up short of the conversion. I don't have any data to back this up, it's just something I've noticed on quite a few occasions. It drives me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Watkins hasn't been getting the separation he needs to be getting against certain CBs, whether that's due to health, or lack of skill (he's a rookie afterall), a combination of the two, who knows. I'm glad Woods and Hogan have been getting more looks lately, they've been very reliable. I think throwing the ball to Hogan is holding the offense back. Orton loves to go to him on 3rd downs and it seems time and time again Hogan will make the catch but come up short of the conversion. I don't have any data to back this up, it's just something I've noticed on quite a few occasions. It drives me crazy. Yeah, I've noticed this too, I think maybe instead of running to the 1st down marker, he needs to run to 1 yard beyond it. Hopefully the coaches are working with our WRs on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think throwing the ball to Hogan is holding the offense back. Orton loves to go to him on 3rd downs and it seems time and time again Hogan will make the catch but come up short of the conversion. I don't have any data to back this up, it's just something I've noticed on quite a few occasions. It drives me crazy. There is no question about it. Then he will make one decent or good play a game and people will think he is really good. He's really pedestrian is wht he is, and I truly believe we would be a much better offense if we played watkins, woods and Williams as our three, with goodwin when he is healthy and Hogan when any of the other four were banged up. The ST may have suffered slightly because of Hogan being good, but he would have been active more than half of the games so he would have been there for that. And the ST. had a lot of good players and starters out there any way so he probably wouldn't have been missed. This and Urbik have been the biggest coaching blunders and it is glaring IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Watkins hasn't been getting the separation he needs to be getting against certain CBs, whether that's due to health, or lack of skill (he's a rookie afterall), a combination of the two, who knows. I'm glad Woods and Hogan have been getting more looks lately, they've been very reliable. Last week vs. Cleveland when they showed the mini highlights of the first half vs. Haden he had separation time and time again. He should have had a long TD if Orton could have hit him deep and he was open quite a bit but Orton simply didn't look his way on those plays. It seems that Orton only goes to Watkins when he's covered but when he's open he looks other places. It's baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Last week vs. Cleveland when they showed the mini highlights of the first half vs. Haden he had separation time and time again. He should have had a long TD if Orton could have hit him deep and he was open quite a bit but Orton simply didn't look his way on those plays. It seems that Orton only goes to Watkins when he's covered but when he's open he looks other places. It's baffling. If he's not looking his way, then Watkins isn't the primary target on the play, maybe not even the secondary target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) Syracuse's OC and a QB who is average at best are holding back the offense. This... I'd also call into question the statistical analysis breakdown in the article. And just to add - pending defensive consistency and retaining player talent - this team is starving for a starter at QB which cannot be addressed in the upcoming draft IMO. But just as important is our lackluster OL. Now I would be the last person to use the Cowboys as an example of anything other than the perfect team to cheer against, but the way they re-built their OL with consistent mediocre records the past three years is something to at least consider. Rebuilding our OL opens up opportunities and provides greater cushion to other offensive weapons. It also helps when our OC recognizes our strengths and weaknesses in personnel, especially in the context of our OPP. I am baffled by our offensive strategy on a weekly basis. If only we could pull a broncos and bring in a Peyton Manning-esque QB to round out this team and give us some substantial hope for a change... Edited December 3, 2014 by ctk232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I wouldn't doubt if we see woods drawing the #1 coverage in the final few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I wouldn't doubt if we see woods drawing the #1 coverage in the final few weeks. Not going to happen. Teams are happy letting Woods catch 10 -15 yard passes that aren't back breaking. The last thing they want is sammy running down the sideline for big plays. That's what scares teams, not possession guys like woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Syracuse's OC and a QB who is average at best are holding back the offense. I swear to God do you post about ANYTHING but how bad Orton is? Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddenboy Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I wouldn't doubt if we see woods drawing the #1 coverage in the final few weeks. This, only if opposing coaches truly believe that Watkins is banged up. I mean, he is banged up, but is it to the point of ineffectiveness? Put another way, does the other team think we are only using Watkins as a decoy, such that Woods is (currently) the true primary? I swear to God do you post about ANYTHING but how bad Orton is? Anything? He also posts about how EJ needs/needed more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think the title is misleading. It's not incomplete passes to Sammy that are holding back the offense or any other offense. It's trying to force plays to receivers just because they're supposed to be your "#1 guy". You absolutely try to find ways to get a guy the football, but if the opposing defense really wants to take a guy out of play, they will. See the Pittsburgh game where they didn't let Jimmy Graham get the ball even one time. No targets, no receptions. They game planned to take him out of the mix, which is what teams are doing with Sammy Watkins. Prior to the BYE week, Sammy had two games with a total of almost 300 yards receiving and 3 TD's. Why wouldn't you try to take away a teams #1 weapon if you can? On the flip side of the coin, do I want Orton throwing to Sammy in double coverage or Woods in single? The latter, and all damned day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ive got 2 things to point out. 1) Sammy's being double teamed. 2) Sammy's been banged up the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well if Sammy would do a better job of catching those passes it wouldn't hurt the team. The guy has made some great catches but he's also dropped quite a few Really? How many? GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Really? How many? GO BILLS!!! A lot. He's caught 52% of his targets. The better receivers leading the NFL right now are mid 60% to low 70%. He's dropped a lot of balls. I've watched all the games and some are baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 A lot. He's caught 52% of his targets. The better receivers leading the NFL right now are mid 60% to low 70%. He's dropped a lot of balls. I've watched all the games and some are baffling. That's not the same as drops. What are his drop numbers? Targets just mean the QB throws him the ball, it doesn't say if the ball was inaccurate, defended or dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC2002 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 so a few dropped passes from a passing offense weeks in the making or a the fall from #2 in rushing to #24 hmmm which is hurting the offense more ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 A lot. He's caught 52% of his targets. The better receivers leading the NFL right now are mid 60% to low 70%. He's dropped a lot of balls. I've watched all the games and some are baffling. Against the Browns, Watkins was targeted 9 times, caught 3. Of the rest, I remember him having his hands on 1, that arguably could have been caught, although it would have been a great catch. 2 were intercepted. The rest were not close. This is Orton forcing the ball to Sammy along with Orton's inaccuracy, not Watkins dropping balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rumblefish Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 it takes two to tango, and football is a team game, so they are all the problem or solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It almost seems like Sammy is too fast for Orton's throws and timing. Im not sure Ive seen a single throw to Sammy that wasnt behind him. There is something off with the timing there, and I dont know I can blame it on the receiver. Agreed with others that targeting Hogan in crucial situations needs to stop. It's more bad than good. Still absolutely mind boggling after watching Mike Williams highlights from Tampa Bay that we cant utilize him. OC and QB (and then OL to a lesser extent) are the issues with this offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC2002 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Against the Browns, Watkins was targeted 9 times, caught 3. Of the rest, I remember him having his hands on 1, that arguably could have been caught, although it would have been a great catch. 2 were intercepted. The rest were not close. This is Orton forcing the ball to Sammy along with Orton's inaccuracy, not Watkins dropping balls. and obviously the QB is at fault EVERY SINGLE TIME . I dont get why people cant simply say what it really is and that BOTH are at fault and they BOTH need to get it together . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) Got'cha. The whole idea of #1 and #2 receivers is sort of stupid in the first place. But Watkins has far superior physical skills to Woods. That's why he is thought of to be a franchise type wr. Woods is great route runner but lacks the elite speed to be a true "#1". key words...there's this guy, biletnikoff, that they named college football's highest wide receiver award on. there were many peers who were felt to possess superior physical skills. they don't have awards named after them. Edited December 4, 2014 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 key words...there's this guy, biletnikoff, that they named college football's highest wide receiver award on. there were many peers who were felt to possess superior physical skills. they don't have awards named after them. I thought it was another proof of the system holding the black man down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I thought it was another proof of the system holding the black man down? um no. the guy was 6'1" 190, chain smoker (even smoking on the sidelines) and very slow by today's standards. he had intangibles. we've yyet to see if sammy has them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 um no. the guy was 6'1" 190, chain smoker (even smoking on the sidelines) and very slow by today's standards. he had intangibles. we've yyet to see if sammy has them as well. So tell me why it wasn't the Bob Hayes award? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So tell me why it wasn't the Bob Hayes award? because bob hayes was not an exeptional receiver but was an exceptional olympic athlete. thanks for making my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sir andrew Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sammy has replaced Lee Evans' role in drawing the double teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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