Jump to content

Example of why we should not throw in the towel on Manuel... yet.


Coach55

Recommended Posts

Look at Steve McNair:

 

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

 

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ. His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards. He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt. Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times. He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

 

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

 

I could live with Manuel hitting the Steve McNair plateau...led his team to within inches of winning a Super Bowl...IIRC NFL MVP one year...given what we have dealt with the last 10 years or so, I would be very happy with that...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 84
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Look at Steve McNair:

 

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

 

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ. His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards. He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt. Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times. He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

 

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

 

How do you know this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look at Steve McNair:

 

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

 

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ. His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards. He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt. Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times. He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

 

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

 

Is that supposed to be a factor in drafting somebody else? McNair was the most underrated QB from his era. He was a very, very good, bordering on great QB. You're looking at a QB rating from a different era of football, one where the rules weren't all in the offense's favor. Look at the ratings of other QBs from his time.

 

 

Marion 86.4

Kelly 84.4

Aikman 81.6

Moon 80.9

Elway 79.9

Simms 78.5

Theisman 77.4

Bledsoe 77.1

 

If we can expect a Steve McNair type career from EJ in relation to how he compares to other QBs of his era we'll be very happy.

 

Comps like this are ridiculous. In Peyton Manning's first five games he threw 4 TDs and 12 INTs, so we might as well say that any QB that plays just as poorly in his first five starts can easily end up being as good as PM.

 

The comparison is only ridiculous if you don't understand what the point of the comparison is. The point of a comparison like that isn't to say the QB can be another Peyton Manning but to say you just don't know what you have that early in his career because just about all young QBs struggle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am also interested to see how EJ plays when/if he can stay healthy. The horrible pass attempt when TJ was wide open (think it was against Tampa) was an eye opener to me. As has been pointed out, his footwork was awful on the play. His chest was facing TJ and so he tried to throw the ball without stepping into it at all. What I have not seen pointed out is what I saw on the play. Pressure comes up the middle but just from EJs left (from the left guard position--surprise) and EJ moves his left leg back and away from the pressure, creating the bad body position. I don't think EJ trusted his line OR his leg....which may have created a lot of the footwork problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree. You owe it to your franchise QB to surround him with as many weapons as possible. Using a high pick cheats EJ of a possible weapon. Besides, I struggle to see who is that great QB at #9. It is a very average group IMO.

 

I agree on this Quarterback draft class. I think it has been massively overhyped... I don't see a guy there who even if I was the Texans I would feel good enough about to invest a #1 pick in. I think that said QB's will fly off the board early this year and part of the reason for that is that there are a series of teams above us in the draft order who are very Quarterback needy (basically everyone except the Falcons and Rams) and there is not the pool of guys who are (or at least seen as) serviceable vets likely to be available via trade of free agency. Last year Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Matt Flynn (who people were still seeing as a guy who was just unlucky to be beat out be a phenom) were out there on the market that the Cardinals, the Chiefs and the Raiders took advantage of.

 

I'm much more excited about Mariota and Winston potentially coming out next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The days of waiting until the year after a QB prospect have failed should be gone now. First, for every future HOFer like Brees, there are 20 JP Losmans/David Carrs. So, the odds are greatly in favor of a QB failing after 4 years of futility.

 

Second, despite his growing pains/inconsistencies, there were many NFL-grade passes by Brees during those years. Haven't seen these yet with EJ. All we see him is floating passes to grossly open receivers.

 

Lastly, before the rookie salary cap, teams were forced to play their rookie QBs for 4-5 years. It simply wasn't feasible to draft another QB when you're paying another one $70 million. The reason SD was even able to draft Rivers is because they weren't paying Brees top dollar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a difference between "throwing in the towel" and giving yourself options. Unless they think Kolb, Tuel, or Lewis (or Dixon or ____) are going to suddenly blossom next year as well as Manuel, then they are short on options.

 

This statement I agree with. Bills will do themselves a great disservice if they go into camp without a viable option. They have to set a firm floor to QB performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Second, despite his growing pains/inconsistencies, there were many NFL-grade passes by Brees during those years. Haven't seen these yet with EJ. All we see him is floating passes to grossly open receivers.

 

This is laughable for a couple reasons. First, if you saw no flashes or NFL-grade passes from EJ then you did not watch any of the games he played in or you only saw the Pitt game. Did he float a lot of balls? Yes. Did he wait to see the guy open a majority of the time? Yes. Did he make some really nice throws and show good anticipation on some throws? Yes.

 

Second, since you know that Brees showed the ability to make NFL-grade throws through his early career struggles (and EJ didn't), can you please provide several examples of these throws. Only in his early years mind you. My memory is not as good as yours. I lack the ability to remember individual throws a young Charger made around ten years ago. Either that or I'm not just using blanket statements that could/could not be true to fit my narrative.

Edited by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly....us fans are in dire needs of a winning organization, that we have zero patience to wait and see if our rookie QB is the guy or not!

 

Fact is...we do have enough talent to win, but we are being anchored down by the growing pains of a rookie QB. My fear is that when and if he gets it.. our main core of solid players won't be here anymore.

 

But as a whole this teams hands were tied last year. I mean if they kept Fitz they lose many fans. I think our front office panicked and took a QB.

 

I wish they would've just kept fitz one more year then snag a QB this 2014 draft. Cause I do think its a better draft for QBs then last years...by far!

If they keep Fitz they probably finish with the same record or better. Look at how many teams drafting ahead of the Bills are projected to take a QB. So they should use their first round pick to take the fifth or sixth QB?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look at Steve McNair:

 

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

 

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ. His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards. He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt. Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times. He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

 

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

 

I could live with that. I think you may be selling Steve McNair short. I wouldn't make the argument that he was a great QB, but he was a solid starter for a long time and his teams won a lot of games. He wasn't much statistically, but that was due at least in part to the run-oriented, ball control offenses that he played in. They could do a lot worse...and have in the last 15 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I basically think EJ has that "clutch" gene. He has in his short time as a Bill driven his team to either win games or put them in position to win/tie. I like him and think he is more than adaquate to win with.

 

Nope. According to the experts here, EJ hasn't done one positive thing as a Bill.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could live with that. I think you may be selling Steve McNair short. I wouldn't make the argument that he was a great QB, but he was a solid starter for a long time and his teams won a lot of games. He wasn't much statistically, but that was due at least in part to the run-oriented, ball control offenses that he played in. They could do a lot worse...and have in the last 15 years.

 

I don't think I was selling McNair short, and that was not my intention. I liked his game, but he was not that accurate, wasn't much of a downfield thrower, and was never a big statistical guy, but when a play was needed, he made it, and when he needed to be on the field, he was.

 

If EJ can do those things the Bills can win. Make a big play when a play was needed, and be on the field.

 

In year 1 EJ did not meet the bell, but it does not mean he won't. Heck, even one of the best all time in Elway was just shy of 80 QB rating (and I know it is a different era), but he made the big plays and was always on the field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Input from outside the organization:

 

http://bills.buffalo...-team-needs-qb/

 

My stance is the Bills can't move forward as a franchise until they have a quarterback, and ignoring the very real possibility that Manuel won't pan out would be wasting another precious season of the organization's overall development.

Double down. Get it right.

I don't think the Bills will do this only because Manuel was Whaleys and Marrones first pick, they picked him in the first round, and was the first QB taken. Even showing doubt that they made a mistake would be very hard for them. I think they get the WR(s) and whatever else they feel the offense needs and roll the dice with Manuel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think the Bills will do this only because Manuel was Whaleys and Marrones first pick, they picked him in the first round, and was the first QB taken. Even showing doubt that they made a mistake would be very hard for them. I think they get the WR(s) and whatever else they feel the offense needs and roll the dice with Manuel.

 

Putting pride before performance may not be good for longevity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think EJ trusted his line OR his leg....which may have created a lot of the footwork problems.

 

I think you're on to something here.

 

I don't think the Bills will do this only because Manuel was Whaleys and Marrones first pick, they picked him in the first round, and was the first QB taken. Even showing doubt that they made a mistake would be very hard for them. I think they get the WR(s) and whatever else they feel the offense needs and roll the dice with Manuel.

 

I think you're on to something here, as well.

 

Putting pride before performance may not be good for longevity.

 

Agree.

 

There is a difference between "throwing in the towel" and giving yourself options. Unless they think Kolb, Tuel, or Lewis (or Dixon or ____) are going to suddenly blossom next year as well as Manuel, then they are short on options.

 

This is where I stand. I REALLY want EJ to be the answer, but until he does a little bit more to show that he is THE guy, I'm fine with them trying to upgrade their "backup plan" at the very least.

 

I've been caught in a few debates here but my position is not that they MUST draft a QB with an early pick, just that they shouldn't unilaterally dismiss it because they have EJ. I'm pretty much hoping for BPA, and if the BPA is a QB, then go for it.

 

If there is a run on QBs in the picks before the Bills', however, it probably isn't that likely the BPA is a QB.

Edited by uncle flap
Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...