Bandit's Annual Mock

[thebandit27]

Well, it’s that time of year again. Mock drafts really require little explanation, but as always, I’d like to note that what is presented below is not what I would personally do in each situation, but rather what I believe will happen. Obviously, there’s no way to accurately predict all of the picks, trades, etc. that will occur, but I’d like to think that below is an accurate representation of what neighborhood each player will be slotted into, and which teams would be interested in taking him in that slot.

 

Last year’s mock was pretty solid, as of the 32 players selected in the first round, I correctly identified 25 of them. Guys I missed on were Bruce Irvin, Shea McClellin, Dont’a Hightower, Kevin Zeitler, Nick Perry, Harrison Smith, and A.J. Jenkins. The deepest pick I got right was nailing that Doug Martin would be picked in the 31 slot in a trade-up.

 

How will this year’s mock fare? We’ll find out in 2 days time. In the meantime, please feel free to provide your comments, insights, critiques, etc. Just remember, I spent a good amount of time and effort on this, so try to be nice J

 

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel – OT/Texas A&M

 

I’m comfortable saying that it’ll be an OT with the #1 pick, but I still think it could end up being Central Michigan’s Eric Fischer. However, when I look back at Andy Reid’s offensive lines in Philly, he always went for the technician, solid-run-blocker types as opposed to the better athletes along the OL, so I’m giving them Joeckel, who they hope can supplant current franchise player Branden Albert at LT.

 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan – LB-DE/Oregon

 

There isn’t a more talented, versatile defender in the draft than Jordan, and that’s gotta catch the attention of new GM David Caldwell and coach Gus Bradley. Jordan could play the Leo role in Bradley’s defense alongside DTs Tyson Alualu, Roy Miller, and Sen’Derrick Marks, in what Bradley hopes will be a replica of the front that Seattle used to give offenses fits in 2012.

 

3. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd – DT/Florida

 

Is this just the ghost of Al Davis picking a freak combo of size and speed, or are the Raiders simply plucking the most talented defender on the board? One thing we can say definitively: with the departures of Tommy Kelly, Richard Seymour, and Desmond Bryant, the interior of the Oakland defensive front needs a wide body, so if they like Floyd, it makes sense that he’d be the pick.

 

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Lane Johnson – OT/Oklahoma

 

First shocker of the draft? I’m giving the ultra-athletic Johnson to the Eagles over CMU’s Eric Fischer simply because he’s a better athlete, which should make him a better fit for the up-tempo offense that new coach Chip Kelly wants to run. This pick could go in a number of directions, from a DT like Utah’s Star Lotulelei to a QB or rush LB, but I think that the injury history and general lack of athleticism at the OT position will win out in the City of Brotherly Love.

 

5. Detroit Lions: Eric Fisher – OT/Central Michigan

 

How lucky can the Lions be? I’ve heard scuttlebutt that Fischer is the #1 player on their board, and in this scenario, he falls right into their lap. As badly as they need a CB like Alabama’s Dee Milliner, they can’t possibly pass up the chance to upgrade from retired LT Jeff Backus, and with a local product no less. This move would also allow them to keep 2012 first-rounder Riley Reiff at right tackle, where he may be better suited to play long-term.

 

6. Cleveland Browns: Ezekiel Ansah – DE/Brigham Young

 

There may, in fact, be something to the Geno Smith rumors swirling in Cleveland, as I think the new regime would love to move on from Brandon Weeden, and quickly. However, absent a trade-down, which is unlikely without one of the top OTs on the board, I don’t see it happening in the No. 6 slot. That leaves them with Ansah, who new DC Ray Horton would love to get his hands on (not literally, at least I don’t think…not that there’s anything wrong with that). The presence of rush LBs Jabaal Sheard and Quentin Groves would allow Ansah to rotate in as a situational pass rusher early, simplifying his role and thereby increasing the odds that he can be productive right away.

 

7. **TRADE** Atlanta Falcons (from Arizona Cardinals): Dee Milliner – CB/Alabama

 

Fortune often favors the bold, and the Falcons have certainly been that in recent years (see Jones, Julio). I have a feeling that they want to move up to get Milliner, and Arizona should be comfortable moving down now that the top 3 OTs are out of play. Milliner would fill the gap created when both Brent Grimes and Chris Owens left in free agency, give Atlanta what they hope would be a missing piece on defense.

 

8. **TRADE** St. Louis Rams (from Buffalo Bills): Tavon Austin – WR/West Virginia

 

Those of you that know me are aware that I absolutely despise the idea of trading down, but this mock isn’t based on what I would do; it’s based on what I think will happen. I just have a gut feeling that—whether it’s Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota, or someone else, Austin is going to be the pick at No. 8 overall. With the slot WR position becoming a key cog in NFL passing games, Austin’s value has sky-rocketed. The Jets owning 2 picks in the top 13 and having a revolving need at WR makes a trade-up for Austin almost required from a team sitting outside the top 15. The Rams, who lost slot threat Danny Amendola in free agency, need a playmaker on offense, and are willing to give up one of their two second round picks to move up and get this dynamic weapon, while Buffalo is all-too-happy to move down.

 

9. New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo – LB-DE/LSU

 

How long has Rex Ryan wanted a premier pass rusher? Calvin Pace didn’t get it done, nor did Bryan Thomas…they even tried Aaron Maybin…no luck. Mingo is incredibly athletic, and has a great burst off the ball. If anyone can get productivity out of him, it would be a creative defensive coach like Ryan. This may be one pick that Jets’ fans actually like on draft day…of course, they also loved the Vernon Gholston pick, so there’s that to think about.

 

10. Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack – OG/Alabama

 

Smile, Chris Johnson, when you see this road-grader cross the stage in Radio City Music Hall. Adding Warmack to a revamped line that includes newcomer Andy Levitre and a pair of veteran tackles would immediately upgrade one of Tennessee’s two biggest weaknesses (the other being the defensive line). I could easily see this pick being Utah’s Star Lotulelei as well, but given that head coach Mike Munchak is a former OLman, I’m going with Warmack.

 

11. San Diego: Star Lotulelei – DT/Utah

 

Quite simply, I believe San Diego is going to pick whomever Tennessee doesn’t. With the loss of starting defensive linemen Vaughan Martin and Antonio Garay, along with top backup Aubrayo Franklin, this unit is suddenly very thin. Lotulelei is big and athletic enough to play any position along the Chargers’ 3-man line, and should be a starter as a rookie.

 

12. Miami Dolphins: Xavier Rhodes – CB/Florida State

 

Miami comes into the draft with three big needs to fill: OT, CB, and pass rusher. With the top talents gone at the other two spots, this pick becomes pretty academic. Rhodes has the size/speed combo that defensive coaches covet, and played in a primarily zone scheme at Florida State. The Dolphins could look to fill their other two needs with second round picks.

 

13. New York Jets: Geno Smith – QB/West Virginia

 

Finally, the slide comes to an end. With Austin and Rhodes off the board, and a pass rusher already in the fold, new GM John Idzik changes course and decides to take his shot at a franchise signal-caller. Smith has the tools to be a great QB, but will he have the gumption to prosper in what is undoubtedly the most difficult situation for a young QB to come into? I hope not (he he).

 

14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson – DT/Missouri

 

I tried to find a way to get Richardson into the top 10, but just couldn’t figure out how he’d fit in there. Instead, Carolina is fortunate enough to nab an outstanding football player that just happens to fill one of their biggest needs. If Richardson can keep himself clear of off the field issues, he should add some pop to their front seven and give reigning rookie of the year Luke Keuchly some much-needed protection up front.

 

15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones – LB/Georgia

 

With new coordinator Rob Ryan in the fold, the Saints will be looking for edge rushers to place into their new 3-4. Jones was, statistically, the best pass rusher in college football in 2012, and played the rush LB spot for the Bulldogs, which would make him an ideal fit. A medical question mark and plodding 40 time notwithstanding, if Jones does pan out, he’d be an absolute steal at this spot.

 

16. Buffalo Bills (from St. Louis Rams): Ryan Nassib – QB/Syracuse

 

It’s a move that, despite my early impressions, is starting to look more and more likely. I don’t know if Nassib can be a franchise QB, and I don’t know if he’ll be the pick, but I do know that Head Coach Doug Marrone knows him better than anyone. If he’s wiling to risk his shot at an NFL job on Nassib, then he really must believe in the kid…so we’ll see I guess.

 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alec Ogletree – LB/Georgia

 

The Steelers have never shied away from drafting talented players with character concerns, so they won’t let it stop them here. Ogletree is probably the most athletic ILB in the draft, and Pittsburgh is desperate for young LBs. This move would allow them the flexibility to move incumbent Lawrence Timmons to OLB to replace the departed James Harrison if Jason Worilds and Chris Carter don’t pan out in that spot.

 

18. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper – OG/North Carolina

 

This is further than I expected Cooper to slide, given that he’s probably just as good a player as Warmack. I know OG shouldn’t be a huge priority for Dallas after spending free agent dollars on two of them last offseason, but when Jerry Jones says he wants to get stronger inside, he means it. Cooper is strong, athletic, and versatile, traits that have been in short supply along the Cowboys OL for some time. I’ll also be watching for a trade-down here, as I’ve heard rumors that San Francisco would like to move into this spot to get ahead of the Giants.

 

19. New York Giants: Tank Carradine – DE/Florida State

 

I wanted to give the Giants a TE, LB, or OL based on need, but I can’t ignore GM Jerry Reese’s drafting history. He loves to draft pass rushers, and who can argue with his approach? With Osi Umenyiora gone, Jason Pierre-Paul coming off a down year, and Justin Tuck on the wrong side of 30, it makes sense for the Giants to add another young DE. Carradine’s meteoric rise up draft charts makes him a hot commodity and the likely pick in this slot.

 

20. Chicago Bears: Tyler Eifert – TE/Norte Dame

 

Would the Bears really draft a TE in the first round after committing money to Martellus Bennett in free agency? Obviously I think so…the importance of the TE position keeps on growing, and new head coach Marc Trestman is a big proponent of the two-TE system.. Eifert has great hands and is a good route runner, which will endear him to Jay Cutler (as much as it’s possible to do so anyway) very quickly.

 

21. Cincinnati Bengals: D.J. Fluker – OT/Alabama

 

Even if they re-sign incumbent RT Andre Smith, I have to believe that it won’t be a long-term deal. The Bengals just seem ready to move on from the mercurial Smith, and having a talent like Fluker drop into their lap would make it much easier. He’s a tremendous run blocker; at worst, he’s a guy that will be a serviceable right tackle and could kick inside to right guard if all else fails.

 

22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins): Kenny Vaccarro – S/Texas

 

Here’s another instance where I tried to fit a player into a higher slot (like, for instance, Dallas or Pittsburgh), but just couldn’t get comfortable with the idea of this player being valued higher than the 20^th pick. The Rams already had a hole at safety, and then lost Craig Dahl in free agency. They need to add a playmaker, and Vaccarro is the best safety in the class. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he’s a great tackler and is very smart. He just needs to keep himself clean off the field.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings: D.J. Hayden – CB/Houston

 

After cutting Antoine Winfield, and getting less than stellar production from Chris Cook, the Vikings need to add a quality cover man more so than any other position. Hayden appears to have recovered from his freak health problems last November, and has the best blend of speed and cover skills of any corner left on the board.

 

24. Indianapolis Colts: Bjoern Werner –DE/Florida State

 

With Dwight Freeney out of the picture, the Colts could use a pass rush upgrade opposite Robert Mathis. Werner has limited football experience since coming over from Germany, but is extremely strong and athletic. While he did amass 13 sacks in 2012, the concern is that his production came in only a few games. If he can continue to refine his game, the Colts could have themselves a bargain. I’ve also heard that another foreigner turned DE, Margus Hunt, could be on the Colts’ radar with this pick.

 

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks): Manti Te’o – LB/Notre Dame

 

With the signing of Greg Jennings, WR takes a back seat to MLB as the Vikings biggest need behind CB. Although Te’o has taken a lot of abuse for his play in the National Championship game (and that little fake girlfriend story), he was a very effective player for much of his college career. I’m betting Leslie Frazier sees a way he can make Te’o productive in his Tampa 2 scheme.

 

26. Green Bay Packers: Menelik Watson – OT/Florida State

 

The Packers are a difficult team to project, since GM Ted Thompson almost always drafts who he feels will be the best football player regardless of position (hence they end up with guys like Aaron Rodgers). They’re also a size/speed team; they love the measurables. That’s why I’m giving them Watson, who is short on experience but big on ability. He could end up the best left tackle to come out of this class a few years from now despite being a late first-round pick, a la Duane Brown in 2008.

 

27. Houston Texans: Matt Barkley – QB/USC

 

Surprised? Don’t be. Matt Schaub is 31 years old and could end up a free agent after the 2013 season if he doesn’t play up to his contract, which jumps up to a base salary in excess of $10 million in 2014. To boot, Houston’s dead-money hit for cutting Schaub drops from a preposterous $24 million in 2013 to almost non-existent at the start of the next league year. That puts Barkely, who could execute Gary Kubiak’s timing-based pass offense very effectively, squarely in the crosshairs at this pick.

 

28. Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams – DT/North Carolina

 

Williams is a player that could easily go higher than this spot. When John Fox sees that he’s on the board, he won’t hesitate to add him to the mix at DT. Denver has struggled stopping the run, and Williams not only brings the size to help in that regard, but also the tenacity and speed to contribute to an already-fearsome pass rush. As long as this pick doesn’t involve a fax machine, I can’t see the Broncos screwing this up.

 

29. New England Patriots: Desmond Trufant – CB/Washington

 

With only 3 picks in the first 6 rounds, a trade down is definitely possible here, especially for a team that wants to add a QB ahead of Arizona, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and the Jets, but I think Belichick will jump at the chance to add Trufant. The Pats have a dreadful lot at corner outside of Aqib Talib, and Trufant is a very talented cover man. Hopefully for us Bills’ fans, this pick won’t end the calamity in the New England defensive backfield too quickly.

 

30. Arizona Cardinals (from Atlanta Falcons): E.J. Manuel – QB/Florida State

 

Carson Palmer or no Carson Palmer, the Cardinals need a QB. Bruce Arians has experience coaching a big, talented passer in Ben Roethlisberger, so adding a guy like Manuel to his team would make perfect sense. When (not if) Palmer falters, Manuel should bring some excitement to a Cardinals offense that has some playmakers in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Reshard Mendenhall.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers: Margus Hunt – DE/Southern Methodist

 

It’s entirely possible that the ‘niners will move up from this spot, but I think this team/player might be the best fit in the whole draft. Hunt is a physical specimen, which Jim Harbaugh will love; and they have the luxury of sitting him behind one of the game’s best 5-technique ends in Justin Smith. With that kind of situation, Hunt could be a beast down the road.

 

32. Baltimore Ravens: Cordarrelle Patterson – WR/Tennessee

 

Ozzie Newsome is another best-player-available GM. If Patterson makes it to this spot, he’s going to be awfully tough to pass up. The Ravens need another target to go with Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, and Patterson’s blend of size, speed, and elusiveness would make him a threat in an already potent offense.

[BringBackFergy]

Very good post Bandit. What are your thoughts on what the Bills could get from the Rams for that move up to 8??

A second and third pick? That's a huge jump in value.

Edited April 23, 2013 by BringBackFergy

[Coach Tuesday]

By far the most realistic mock I've read this offseason, and I've read just about all of them... great work dude.

 

Also, I think you're spot-on about the Texans drafting a QB early. I've been suggesting the same thing for months. They're going to pull the trigger and Barkley makes a lot of sense.

Edited April 23, 2013 by Coach Tuesday

[C.Biscuit97]

You're one of my favorite posters but this draft would terrify me. I hate the idea of settling for Nassib while the Jets get Smith. I hate it.

[buffaloboyinATL]

And that my friends, is a mock draft. Very well thought out and executed. Kudos. As many have stated, no one in the NFL has worked more closely with Nassib than Marrone and Hackett. If he is indeed our first round pick, I am confident that they believe he is a franchise QB. I will feel even better if we can get him and still add picks by trading down.

 

Your overall analysis of each teams picks was entertaining and logical. Kiper better start looking over his shoulder.

[johnnywo]

Hopefully they'll select Barkley or Manuel instead of Nassib. I just have this awful "homer" feeling in the pit of my stomach when I think about the Nassib pick....I love the trade down scenario though!

[San Jose Bills Fan]

By far the most realistic mock I've read this offseason, and I've read just about all of them... great work dude.

 

And that my friends, is a mock draft. Very well thought out and executed. Kudos.

 

Your overall analysis of each teams picks was entertaining and logical. Kiper better start looking over his shoulder.

 

I did most of the work for Bandit.

 

A bit disappointed he didn't cite me as co-author.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brainiac21]

solid. but to critique i'd say...

 

- Falcons to 6 again would take a LOT from 30. dunno if Miliner is worth the cost with other decent CB's available later. would cost the 2nd pick, next year's first, and maybe a lot more than that... just can't see it. too far.

- Geno to Jets is interesting, though i have doubts of it.

- Rhodes seems to be falling... 12 may be too high if Hayden truly has passed him.

- Lane Johnson to Eagles not really surprising, as talking heads have been saying it the past week.

- biggest shock pick may be the Chargers NOT selecting an Olineman.... almost seems they have to at this point.

 

Very good post Bandit. What are your thoughts on what the Bills could get from the Rams for that move up to 8??

A second and third pick? That's a huge jump in value.

16 to 8 would probably cost a 2nd... no more.

[hondo in seattle]

Bandit, great job! Cogent, persuasive 2-3 sentences justifying your prediction for each team. You should publish this.

 

It will be interesting Thursday night to compare your accuracy versus Kiper, McShay, Mayock, etc.

[thebandit27]

Very good post Bandit. What are your thoughts on what the Bills could get from the Rams for that move up to 8??

A second and third pick? That's a huge jump in value.

 

For sure a 2nd this year; I'm guessing a 4th or 5th this year as well plus maybe a 2nd or 3rd next year.

 

By far the most realistic mock I've read this offseason, and I've read just about all of them... great work dude.

 

Also, I think you're spot-on about the Texans drafting a QB early. I've been suggesting the same thing for months. They're going to pull the trigger and Barkley makes a lot of sense.

 

Thanks...yes, I've been on the QB-to-Houston train for some time now...it makes perfect sense to me.

 

You're one of my favorite posters but this draft would terrify me. I hate the idea of settling for Nassib while the Jets get Smith. I hate it.

 

Hey, I hear you...like I said, not necessarily what I would do.

 

And that my friends, is a mock draft. Very well thought out and executed. Kudos. As many have stated, no one in the NFL has worked more closely with Nassib than Marrone and Hackett. If he is indeed our first round pick, I am confident that they believe he is a franchise QB. I will feel even better if we can get him and still add picks by trading down.

 

Your overall analysis of each teams picks was entertaining and logical. Kiper better start looking over his shoulder.

 

Wow...thanks for the kind words.

 

Hopefully they'll select Barkley or Manuel instead of Nassib. I just have this awful "homer" feeling in the pit of my stomach when I think about the Nassib pick....I love the trade down scenario though!

 

I also like Manuel ahead of Nassib; I, however, hate the trade-down. I'm all for nabbing a top-10 talent.

 

I did most of the work for Bandit.

 

A bit disappointed he didn't cite me as co-author.

 

 

 

How dare you let the cat out of the bag...I thought we had an agreement?

 

solid. but to critique i'd say...

 

- Falcons to 6 again would take a LOT from 30. dunno if Miliner is worth the cost with other decent CB's available later. would cost the 2nd pick, next year's first, and maybe a lot more than that... just can't see it. too far.

- Geno to Jets is interesting, though i have doubts of it.

- Rhodes seems to be falling... 12 may be too high if Hayden truly has passed him.

- Lane Johnson to Eagles not really surprising, as talking heads have been saying it the past week.

- biggest shock pick may be the Chargers NOT selecting an Olineman.... almost seems they have to at this point.

 

 

16 to 8 would probably cost a 2nd... no more.

 

Fair points...my thoughts:

 

- Agreed that it would be a big move for the Falcons. I just think that they believe they could be one impact defender from a Superbowl

- I doubted it at first as well; when I mocked the top 12 this way, it made too much sense in terms of value to ignore

- Hayden could very well be the pick at 12; my thought was that Miami really likes the bigger CBs, which steered me towards Rhodes

- Wow, really? I hadn't heard anyone talking about Johnson at 4...guess I'm not as original as I'd have thought

- Yeah I struggled with whether or not to give SD either Cooper, Fluker, or Watson...again though, I thought Star was too great a value to pass on given their lack of depth on the DL

 

Bandit, great job! Cogent, persuasive 2-3 sentences justifying your prediction for each team. You should publish this.

 

It will be interesting Thursday night to compare your accuracy versus Kiper, McShay, Mayock, etc.

 

Thanks...I try to go for realism and not homerism as much as possible. Although I doubt I'll hold a candle to the pros in terms of accuracy.

[Maury Ballstein]

Nice work bandit ...but I would hate this result....geno and the jets will bash us....I hate nassib in the first round....dudes a deer in headlights IMO.

[ny33]

I do have to say that I highly doubt the Falcons will trade up to seven for Milliner. For one, he's had numerous injuries, and reportedly is dropping down many draft boards. As Atlanta has the 30th overall pick, it would cost a great deal to trade up to the seventh pick- likely this year and next year's first, plus a second; I don't see them doing that for a CB. Finally, Atlanta has a serious need at defensive end, a position which is likely to have fewer available talents at the 30th pick than CB will.

Edited April 23, 2013 by ny33

[thebandit27]

I do have to say that I highly doubt the Falcons will trade up to seven for Milliner. For one, he's had numerous injuries, and reportedly is dropping down many draft boards. As Atlanta has the 30th overall pick, it would cost a great deal to trade up to the seventh pick- likely this year and next year's first, plus a second; I don't see them doing that for a CB. Finally, Arizona has a serious need at defensive end, a position which is likely to have fewer available talents at the 30th pick than CB will.

 

To address your comment about Milliner, here's an apropos item from PFT:

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/23/report-league-personnel-think-milliner-reports-part-of-smear-campaign-to-lower-draft-stock/

 

As for Arizona, I'm not sure I see the need for a DE. They run a 3-4, and currently have both Calais Campbell and Darnell Docket as starters, and have quality veteran depth in Matt Shaughnessy and Frostee Rucker. At first, I thought you might be referring to pass rushers, but they're pretty solid there as well with FA acquisition Lorenzo Alexander joining a young trio of Sam Acho, O'Brien Schofield, and Tim Fugger.

 

The big needs for Arizona are on the offensive side of the ball, at OL, QB, and TE.

[ny33]

To address your comment about Milliner, here's an apropos item from PFT:

 

http://profootballta...er-draft-stock/

 

As for Arizona, I'm not sure I see the need for a DE. They run a 3-4, and currently have both Calais Campbell and Darnell Docket as starters, and have quality veteran depth in Matt Shaughnessy and Frostee Rucker. At first, I thought you might be referring to pass rushers, but they're pretty solid there as well with FA acquisition Lorenzo Alexander joining a young trio of Sam Acho, O'Brien Schofield, and Tim Fugger.

 

The big needs for Arizona are on the offensive side of the ball, at OL, QB, and TE.

 

I apologize; I meant to say that Atlanta, not Arizona, likely sees its biggest need at defensive end.

 

Even if Milliner is in good health, I just don't see the Falcons- or any other team- trading that many picks for a cornerback. If they want a CB, I would imagine they take someone like Desmond Trufant, Xaxier Rhodes, or D.J. Hayden at 30; they may also decide to take a shot at guys like Tank Carradine or Damontre Moore at that slot.

Edited April 23, 2013 by ny33

[dave mcbride]

Awesome post. My one criticism is your TN pick. They spent a ton of money on a guard already, and they had the worst defense in the NFL last year. I don't see how they don't go defense.

[thebandit27]

I apologize; I meant to say that Atlanta, not Arizona, likely sees its biggest need at defensive end.

 

Ah, yes, that makes much more sense!

 

You could very well be correct...I figured with the signing of Osi, and the potential re-signing of John Abraham, that corner became their biggest need. Right now they're starting Asante Samuel and some dude named Rob McClain. At least at end they have Osi, Kroy Biermann, and Cliff Matthews; they can also play OLB Sean Weatherspoon as a DE in obvious passing situations.

 

Again though, your point is valid.

 

Awesome post. My one criticism is your TN pick. They spent a ton of money on a guard already, and they had the worst defense in the NFL last year. I don't see how they don't go defense.

 

Yeah, struggled with whether or not I should give them Star...in the end, I decided the combination of Munchak as an OL guy and Warmack being the better overall player would win out...we'll see though.

[ny33]

Awesome post. My one criticism is your TN pick. They spent a ton of money on a guard already, and they had the worst defense in the NFL last year. I don't see how they don't go defense.

 

I think that, if Tennessee were to draft a guard, it would be Cooper. He fits the Levitre profile of being an athletic, but not overwhelmingly powerful, player with great finesse, while Warmack has mediocre footwork and great strength/leverage. Given that they run CJ to the outside, mostly, I see Cooper as a better fit.

[eball]

Good read, Bandit. Well done.

[ny33]

I'm pretty sure that the 49ers, and a few other teams, are very interested in Datone Jones in the mid-to-late first round. If he is still on the board as late as the Texans' pick, I can see the 49ers trading 31 and 34 for 27 and 89. In that scenario, I would see SF taking Jones; Houston would take a QB at 31 and a WR at 34.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Excellent mock Bandit.

 

Makes you look like the professional and the professionals like amateurs

 

CBF

[Kelly the Dog]

Very good work, Bandit. I think I would be very much on board with a trade down from 8 to 16. I really don't think the Jets are going to take a QB in the first round.

[bobblehead]

This may sound odd, but taking Nassib AND getting another 2nd is a good deal. Just taking Nassib at 8 without an extra pick? Not so much. Barkley throws like a girl and the "raw talent- needs development" qb's like Manuel scare me. Do those types really ever pan out?

[1B4IDie]

You're one of my favorite posters but this draft would terrify me. I hate the idea of settling for Nassib while the Jets get Smith. I hate it.

 

I agree that this would be gut wrenching, but isn't that a representative Buffalo Bills draft.

Moving up to get Austin, in this draft that is loaded with 2nd round WRs is pretty much Science Fiction though. So you'd have to find a different trade up target for this to happen for the Bills.

[yungmack]

One of the best mocks this year. Your analysis of each team is insightful and more to the point, accurate. One small quibble: the Bills might very well believe they've already "drafted" a better QB than any of the ones in the draft by signing Kolb. In that case, I think they might wait until the second round to pick one they can develop. If I'm right, then they might very well select Wilson, Bray or even Scott.

[thebandit27]

I agree that this would be gut wrenching, but isn't that a representative Buffalo Bills draft.

Moving up to get Austin, in this draft that is loaded with 2nd round WRs is pretty much Science Fiction though. So you'd have to find a different trade up target for this to happen for the Bills.

 

It's worth pointing out that I didn't mock this scenario in order to conjure up a trade-down for Buffalo, it's what I honestly believe will happen. It's fine to say that the draft is rife with WR depth, and that's true, but I think you're taking that at face value. The truth of the WR class is that it is deep, but it's deep with bigger, more classic flanker and split-end style WRs. Austin is the lone quick-twitch, explosive slot WR in this class; a very valuable commodity in the NFL nowadays (just look at guys like Welker, Harvin, & Amendola). If as many teams like Austin as I've been lead to believe, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see someone move up to get him.

 

Absent that, there's almost no doubt in my mind that the Jets take Austin at No. 13

Edited April 23, 2013 by thebandit27

[FleaMoulds80]

One of the worst mocks i've seen.

[thebandit27]

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I always agree with this ^

[BuffaloRebound]

Like the trade-down and think it is a good possibility. Would like to see Bills take Eifert at #16 though. Then go get Barkley or Nassib at the top of the 2nd round, and get a WR with the Rams 2nd rounder.

[FleaMoulds80]

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I always agree with this ^

 

That's cool. Doesn't change the fact that this is a bad mock draft.

[Kelly the Dog]

Like the trade-down and think it is a good possibility. Would like to see Bills take Eifert at #16 though. Then go get Barkley or Nassib at the top of the 2nd round, and get a WR with the Rams 2nd rounder.

I would love that, although very much doubt if Barkley or Nassib are available at 41.

[BuffaloRebound]

I would love that, although very much doubt if Barkley or Nassib are available at 41.

Agreed, but probably wouldn't cost more than a 4th to move up 5-7 spots.

[thebandit27]

One of the best mocks this year. Your analysis of each team is insightful and more to the point, accurate. One small quibble: the Bills might very well believe they've already "drafted" a better QB than any of the ones in the draft by signing Kolb. In that case, I think they might wait until the second round to pick one they can develop. If I'm right, then they might very well select Wilson, Bray or even Scott.

 

Thanks for the comments.

 

If they do feel as you speculate, then I could see them going QB in round 2. If that's the case, I'd love an impact defender at 8 overall (actually, that's my preference either way).

 

Like the trade-down and think it is a good possibility. Would like to see Bills take Eifert at #16 though. Then go get Barkley or Nassib at the top of the 2nd round, and get a WR with the Rams 2nd rounder.

 

As I said, I hate the trade-down, but I can't see how Austin gets past the 8th pick, and someone's going to want him enough to move up IMO.

[Kelly the Dog]

Agreed, but probably wouldn't cost more than a 4th to move up 5-7 spots.

I'm not sure about that. I'm skeptical. Because the teams we are trying to trade up with are QB needy teams for the most part. But I will say that I have long wanted Eifert as a top pick, and if we could get Eifert, Nassib and a WR with the Rams #2, and still have six picks in the draft like we started with, I would be ecstatic. Especially if we do sign Dansby, which is completely up in the air right now.

[thebandit27]

I'm not sure about that. I'm skeptical. Because the teams we are trying to trade up with are QB needy teams for the most part. But I will say that I have long wanted Eifert as a top pick, and if we could get Eifert, Nassib and a WR with the Rams #2, and still have six picks in the draft like we started with, I would be ecstatic. Especially if we do sign Dansby, which is completely up in the air right now.

 

I think that moving up for a QB is going to cost more than perhaps moving up for any other position...I think the 28-35 range is going to be a hot spot for trade activity this year.

[D521646]

^{Bandit, if you hate the trade down and want the Bills to select at 8, whom do you suggest they grab? I'm with you by the way and I think it'll be Eifert, or one of the guards. What say you?}

[thebandit27]

^{Bandit, if you hate the trade down and want the Bills to select at 8, whom do you suggest they grab? I'm with you by the way and I think it'll be Eifert, or one of the guards. What say you?}

 

I want an impact defender at 8...were the draft to fall the way I've mocked it, I'd prefer Mingo, Jones, or Lotulelei

[D521646]

I don't like either of those guys and to me they're overrated. For Mingo and Jones I see under weight DE's, Maybin hybrids, and I want no part of that. We have no Von Miller in this draft that's for sure, and as far as Lotulelei, I don't think we need a short armed DT at this point. For me, part of the discussions with Kolb were probably centered around how we plan to protect him, and or give him weapons on offense. I see us picking a weapon on offense, and to me the most impactful zero risk offensive player in this draft class is Eifert, and he also happens to be a position of need.

[DrDawkinstein]

You're one of my favorite posters but this draft would terrify me. I hate the idea of settling for Nassib while the Jets get Smith. I hate it.

 

This. Dropping down 8 picks (for what I can only assume is a 2nd round pick?), and allowing the Jets to pick both Mingo and Geno Smith before we are ever on the board would be a NIGHTMARE come true. If that were to happen, I might just stick with college football this season.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

That's cool. Doesn't change the fact that this is a bad mock draft.

 

I dont see you posting one of your own.

 

If you have, please provide us all with a link so we may judge and comment on yours

 

CBF

[HeHateMe]

If Geno drops then the Bills won't trade back, they will pick him instead.. why would they trade back in this scenario?