Bandit's Annual Mock

[thebandit27]

I don't like either of those guys and to me they're overrated. For Mingo and Jones I see under weight DE's, Maybin hybrids, and I want no part of that. We have no Von Miller in this draft that's for sure, and as far as Lotulelei, I don't think we need a short armed DT at this point. For me, part of the discussions with Kolb were probably centered around how we plan to protect him, and or give him weapons on offense. I see us picking a weapon on offense, and to me the most impactful zero risk offensive player in this draft class is Eifert, and he also happens to be a position of need.

 

Well, both Mingo and Jones would play LB in the NFL, and only Mingo played DE in college; Jones played OLB in Georgia's 3-4. Neither really reminds me of Mabyin at all, especially Jones, given that he had the most sacks cumulative over the past 2 seasons in the entire FBS.

 

Also, I think you may be mistaken regarding Star's arm length. He has 33-5/8" arms according to NFL.com's combine coverage, which is right in the normal range for a DT. By comparison, Sharrif Floyd's arms are 34-1/2", Sylvester Williams are 33-1/2", and Sheldon Richardson's are 31-3/4"

 

I do like Eifert, but I just don't see a TE having the kind of impact this team needs right now.

 

If Geno drops then the Bills won't trade back, they will pick him instead.. why would they trade back in this scenario?

 

Well, any number of reasons. Among them:

 

- Geno isn't their #1 QB on their board

- They don't believe there to be a big enough difference between Geno and their next-highest-rated QB

- They want to garner an extra pick more than they want to make a pick at 8

- They get blown away with an offer from a team that wants a player at 8

 

Again, I don't fancy a trade-down, it's just what I think will happen. You disagree, that's fine.

[D521646]

Well, both Mingo and Jones would play LB in the NFL, and only Mingo played DE in college; Jones played OLB in Georgia's 3-4. Neither really reminds me of Mabyin at all, especially Jones, given that he had the most sacks cumulative over the past 2 seasons in the entire FBS.

 

Also, I think you may be mistaken regarding Star's arm length. He has 33-5/8" arms according to NFL.com's combine coverage, which is right in the normal range for a DT. By comparison, Sharrif Floyd's arms are 34-1/2", Sylvester Williams are 33-1/2", and Sheldon Richardson's are 31-3/4"

 

I do like Eifert, but I just don't see a TE having the kind of impact this team needs right now.

Fair enough, thanks for taking the time to post your mock, although I might disagree on some of it, the effort is appreciated.

[thebandit27]

Fair enough, thanks for taking the time to post your mock, although I might disagree on some of it, the effort is appreciated.

 

No sweat man...it's not as though I'd be disappointed with Eifert, I just don't think he's the best use of this team's first rounder this year.

 

Enjoy the draft.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

No sweat man...it's not as though I'd be disappointed with Eifert, I just don't think he's the best use of this team's first rounder this year.

 

Enjoy the draft.

The reason I like him and want him so much is the Bills need a big WR and a TE. He fills two needs in one. He's almost a WR and will be split out most of the time. But he's also a decent blocker and way better than most WR. In a two TE offense, which

Marrone and Hackett like, he would be a great complement to Chandler, and with both on the field the defense wouldn't know if the play was going to be a run formation or pass formation especially in an up tempo or hurry up. That would help Cj and Fred Ex tremendously.

 

Not to mention that a reliable TE is a young QBs best friend in a lot of ways. Eifert is one of the few sure things in the whole draft.

[John from Riverside]

Either Nassib or Barkley in the 1st is ok with me

 

and now....Nassib is NOT a deer in the headlights where do people come up with this ****

[D521646]

The reason I like him and want him so much is the Bills need a big WR and a TE. He fills two needs in one. He's almost a WR and will be split out most of the time. But he's also a decent blocker and way better than most WR. In a two TE offense, which

Marrone and Hackett like, he would be a great complement to Chandler, and with both on the field the defense wouldn't know if the play was going to be a run formation or pass formation especially in an up tempo or hurry up. That would help Cj and Fred Ex tremendously.

 

Not to mention that a reliable TE is a young QBs best friend in a lot of ways. Eifert is one of the few sure things in the whole draft.

Thank you! It to me is the most logical pick for the Bills at 8.

[CodeMonkey]

Well, any number of reasons. Among them:

 

- Geno isn't their #1 QB on their board

- They don't believe there to be a big enough difference between Geno and their next-highest-rated QB

- They want to garner an extra pick more than they want to make a pick at 8

- They get blown away with an offer from a team that wants a player at 8

I am always reminded of an interview I saw a few years ago of Brain Burke when he was the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The interview was about player trades and he made the statement that all things need to be considered. For example, he said, right now Luke Schenn is probably the most untouchable player in the NHL (interestingly he is no longer a Leaf, but I digress), but if someone offers me 10 first round picks and he is on a plane!

 

You can not, and should never, ignore the possibility of the "deal you can't refuse" ... even when you are on the clock.

Edited April 23, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[D521646]

I am always reminded of an interview I saw a few years ago of Brain Burke when he was the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The interview was about player trades and he made the statement that all things need to be considered. For example, he said, right now Luke Schenn is probably the most untouchable player in the NHL (interestingly he is no longer a Leaf, but I digress), but if someone offers me 10 first round picks and he is on a plane!

 

You can not, and should never, ignore the possibility of the "deal you can't refuse" ... even when you are on the clock.

Yep, and if Nix doesn't wait until the last second, I'd be pissed. The teams need to sweat it out while waiting on Nix.

[CodeMonkey]

Yep, and if Nix doesn't wait until the last second, I'd be pissed. The teams need to sweat it out while waiting on Nix.

That's what was disappointing to me about the Spiller pick. They sprinted up to the podium instantly almost afraid someone would make them an offer.

[C.Biscuit97]

Yep, and if Nix doesn't wait until the last second, I'd be pissed. The teams need to sweat it out while waiting on Nix.

 

True I guess but you don't like a guy confident in his picks? I mean that Spiller guy is pretty good. Honestly, if they are up at #8 and run up there to pick a QB, that won't make you feel more confident in their decision to get a guy they wanted.

[CodeMonkey]

True I guess but you don't like a guy confident in his picks? I mean that Spiller guy is pretty good. Honestly, if they are up at #8 and run up there to pick a QB, that won't make you feel more confident in their decision to get a guy they wanted.

I'm not sure how making the pick within 15 seconds of going on the clock makes you any more or less confident in your selection. But I don't see any harm in waiting a minute or two to see if some desperate GM is willing to give up way too much for your pick. Probably not going to happen, but like the lottery ads say, hey ... you never know.

Edited April 23, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[D521646]

True I guess but you don't like a guy confident in his picks? I mean that Spiller guy is pretty good. Honestly, if they are up at #8 and run up there to pick a QB, that won't make you feel more confident in their decision to get a guy they wanted.

No! Even if they are confident, waiting is the best strategy, IMO.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm not sure how making the pick within 15 seconds of going on the clock makes you any more or less confident in your selection. But I don't see any harm in waiting a minute or two to see if some desperate GM is willing to give up way too much for your pick.

While that is true, it doesn't hurt to wait, from what I know and read, 90-99% of these trade offers come before you're on the clock. They know beforehand who wants to trade and what they are going to offer should the guy they want to trade up for be available.

[C.Biscuit97]

No! Even if they are confident, waiting is the best strategy, IMO.

 

I get what you're saying and I generally agree. But if they rushed up and said, "There is only one guy we want and it is Matt Effing Barkley and he will lead us to the Lombardi," I'd feel pretty confident.

[CodeMonkey]

While that is true, it doesn't hurt to wait, from what I know and read, 90-99% of these trade offers come before you're on the clock. They know beforehand who wants to trade and what they are going to offer should the guy they want to trade up for be available.

I would imagine almost all the conditional "what ifs" are all made ahead of time like you say. "If Geno is still on the board at #8 I'll give you X" for example. I can only imagine what GM's with picks in the top 10 lives are like the last 3 or 4 days before a draft

[D521646]

I get what you're saying and I generally agree. But if they rushed up and said, "There is only one guy we want and it is Matt Effing Barkley and he will lead us to the Lombardi," I'd feel pretty confident.

Yeah, ok I see your point, but Barkley wouldn't be my first choice. I don't see much difference in any of the QB's, as they all have strengths and weaknesses, but when you look at other positions like OT, OG, WR, and TE, the pickings become slimmer after pick 10, with the exception of WR, which is pretty deep this year.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

… and as far as Lotulelei, I don't think we need a short armed DT at this point.

 

I think you have bad info on Lotulelei.

 

There were 22 NT/DTs at the combine and only 5 had longer arms than the 6'4" Lotulelei.

 

http://footballsfuture.com/2013/combine/dt.html

 

This guy is the second coming of Haloti Ngata.

[D521646]

I think you have bad info on Lotulelei.

 

There were 22 NT/DTs at the combine and only 5 had longer arms than the 6'4" Lotulelei.

 

http://footballsfutu...combine/dt.html

 

This guy is the second coming of Haloti Ngata.

Maybe, but NT/DT is NOT our biggest need, or a need at all, IMO.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Maybe, but NT/DT is NOT our biggest need, or a need at all, IMO.

 

I wasn't debating that, just your mischaracterization of Lotulelei.

[thebandit27]

Maybe, but NT/DT is NOT our biggest need, or a need at all, IMO.

 

I wasn't debating that, just your mischaracterization of Lotulelei.

 

No question that DT isn't among the team's most pressing needs. I'm simply of the opinion that a top 10 pick should yield a top 10 talent, and Star is undoubtedly that.

[Bronc24]

I would imagine almost all the conditional "what ifs" are all made ahead of time like you say. "If Geno is still on the board at #8 I'll give you X" for example. I can only imagine what GM's with picks in the top 10 lives are like the last 3 or 4 days before a draft

 

I'd love to experience that. It would be a lot of fun.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

No question that DT isn't among the team's most pressing needs. I'm simply of the opinion that a top 10 pick should yield a top 10 talent, and Star is undoubtedly that.

 

Agree and agree.

 

At minicamp the Bills lined up with a 3 man front of (left to right) Branch-Dareus-Carrington.

 

That has me excited. We could be really stout against the run on run downs at least.

 

And I agree that Star is a top ten talent also.

[ny33]

Agree and agree.

 

At minicamp the Bills lined up with a 3 man front of (left to right) Branch-Dareus-Carrington.

 

That has me excited. We could be really stout against the run on run downs at least.

 

And I agree that Star is a top ten talent also.

 

I wonder if Kyle Williams still has issues with his foot.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I wonder if Kyle Williams still has issues with his foot.

 

And I like some others wonder how he fits in this defense.

[Astrobot]

Excellent thread. It represents a lot of work!

[maddenboy]

I would imagine almost all the conditional "what ifs" are all made ahead of time like you say. "If Geno is still on the board at #8 I'll give you X" for example. I can only imagine what GM's with picks in the top 10 lives are like the last 3 or 4 days before a draft

I had a big debate with a good friend about this years ago.

 

I dont think the team trading up will ever tell us WHO it wants. My friend thinks the trade-down GM should ask the other team "If I trade with you, who are you taking?" I think that's stupid.

 

The other team should/would never tell, and our GM should never ask, knowing the other guy wont tell. If you tell, then Buddy can get on the phone and say to other teams, "so and so offered me X package for Geno, whatchu wanna do? You got 4 minutes."

 

More likely, the other team will say before the draft something like "IF I call you when you're on the clock, I'll be prepared to offer generally a package consisting of X."

Edited April 23, 2013 by maddenboy

[thebandit27]

And I like some others wonder how he fits in this defense.

 

I think that there will be plenty of snaps for Kyle; they'll be in a 4-man front more than half the time.

 

Excellent thread. It represents a lot of work!

 

Coming from you that's quite the compliment...thanks.

 

I had a big debate with a good friend about this years ago.

 

I dont think the team trading up will ever tell us WHO it wants. My friend thinks the trade-down GM should ask the other team "If I trade with you, who are you taking?" I think that's stupid.

 

The other team should/would never tell, and our GM should never ask, knowing the other guy wont tell. If you tell, then Buddy can get on the phone and say to other teams, "so and so offered me X package for Geno, whatchu wanna do? You got 4 minutes."

 

More likely, the other team will say before the draft something like "IF I call you when you're on the clock, I'll be prepared to offer generally a package consisting of X."

 

I think GMs will often commit extra info when trading up, but not to the tune of telling who they'll take. It's more along the lines of "hey, you want player X; that's not who we're targeting". Now, of course, they aren't bound by their word, but if they did end up taking a guy they claimed they wouldn't during trade discussions, that kind of news would make its way around the league and could definitely hamper a team's ability to trade in the future.

[KOKBILLS]

Good Mock Bandit...And I'm hoping it's close to what happens come tomorrow...I'm still not convinced 100% that Nassib will be the QB when the Bills trade down...But I certainly think it's the correct, and hopefully accurate strategy...

[1B4IDie]

 

 

It's worth pointing out that I didn't mock this scenario in order to conjure up a trade-down for Buffalo, it's what I honestly believe will happen. It's fine to say that the draft is rife with WR depth, and that's true, but I think you're taking that at face value. The truth of the WR class is that it is deep, but it's deep with bigger, more classic flanker and split-end style WRs. Austin is the lone quick-twitch, explosive slot WR in this class; a very valuable commodity in the NFL nowadays (just look at guys like Welker, Harvin, & Amendola). If as many teams like Austin as I've been lead to believe, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see someone move up to get him.

 

Absent that, there's almost no doubt in my mind that the Jets take Austin at No. 13

 

I believe you're vastly over estimating the value of Austin and vastly overestimating the value of "quick-twitch" slot receiver.

The rise of the Tight End has actually de-valued the "quick-twitch" Slot receiver.

Amoendola can't stay healthy, either can Harvin.

Welker is a freak that never gets appreciated just what a freak he is.

Can Austin have a Welker like impact? Yes. Is a team going to trade up to draft Austin at #8? Almost impossible. Austin isn't AJ Green or Julio Jones.

I'm not saying a trade down is impossible I'm saying your trade up/down target is not likely like 1/10000000000000000 likely imo.

Edited April 24, 2013 by Why So Serious?

[thebandit27]

I believe your vastly over estimating the value of Austin

And vastly overestimating the value of "quick-twitch" slot receiver.

The rise of the Tight End has actually made de-valued the "quick-twitch" Slot receiver.

Amoendola can't stay healthy, either can Harvin.

Welker is a freak that never gets appreciated just what a freak he is.

Can Austin be a Welker like impact? Yes. Is a team going to trade up to draft Austin at #8? Almost impossible. Austin isn't AJ Green or Julio Jones.

I'm not saying a trade down is impossible I'm saying your trade up/down target is not likely like 1/10000000000000000 likely imo.

 

Obviously you are entitled to your opinion, but I think you're over-stating this significantly. I'd be absolutely shocked if Austin gets past the 13th pick, and I'll be mildly surprised if he doesn't go top 10 at this point...not only from what I've seen of him, but what I've heard through the grapevine.

 

Should be fun to see though.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I had a big debate with a good friend about this years ago.

 

I dont think the team trading up will ever tell us WHO it wants. My friend thinks the trade-down GM should ask the other team "If I trade with you, who are you taking?" I think that's stupid.

 

The other team should/would never tell, and our GM should never ask, knowing the other guy wont tell. If you tell, then Buddy can get on the phone and say to other teams, "so and so offered me X package for Geno, whatchu wanna do? You got 4 minutes."

 

More likely, the other team will say before the draft something like "IF I call you when you're on the clock, I'll be prepared to offer generally a package consisting of X."

 

I don't think that there's one blanket rule which covers draft day trades.

 

Each transaction is unique to itself based on the teams, divisions, conferences, standings, and the relationship the GMs have with each other.

Edited April 24, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan

[CodeMonkey]

I don't think that there's one blanket rule which covers draft day trades.

 

Each transaction is unique to itself based on the teams, divisions, conferences, standings, and the relationship the GMs have with each other.

I believe this to be the case as well. They don't have infinite time on the clock so having specific parameters defined beforehand as much as possible would be a big help.

Also the relationship aspect is key. All it would take is you !@#$ing another GM over one time for your reputation, and your ability to make any future deals, to go right into the toilet.

[Brainiac21]

i don't see any room for a top 10 inside D-lineman... in 3-4 we have 3 DL posiitons and 4 or 5 people now that will get lots of playing time. Dareus/KW are fixtures. Branch will play half the time, Carrington some snaps... and Troup is still in play.

 

in 4-3, that leaves even less room, as Dareus, KW, and Branch and hopefully Troup all split time at DT. 4 bodies, 2 spots.

 

i just can't see a inside D-lineman on the radar at all, cuz we need to utilitize what we have, not minimize it.

[1B4IDie]

Obviously you are entitled to your opinion, but I think you're over-stating this significantly. I'd be absolutely shocked if Austin gets past the 13th pick, and I'll be mildly surprised if he doesn't go top 10 at this point...not only from what I've seen of him, but what I've heard through the grapevine.

 

Should be fun to see though.

Austin is going to be interesting. I fully expect him to go in the 2nd half of the first round.

I wouldn't be shocked if he goes in 30s.

Percy Harvin went #22 and imo is a head and shoulders better prospect than Austin. The Biggest issue with Harvin was that no one knew if he could convert to a full time WR coming out of Florida where he was an option back.

[thebandit27]

Austin is going to be interesting. I fully expect him to go in the 2nd half of the first round.

I wouldn't be shocked if he goes in 30s.

Percy Harvin went #22 and imo is a head and shoulders better prospect than Austin. The Biggest issue with Harvin was that no one knew if he could convert to a full time WR coming out of Florida where he was an option back.

 

Agreed, but Harvin was part of a draft class that was widely viewed as being much more talented than this one, and was never really considered the top-rated WR in that class (Michael Crabtree was the consensus #1). Harvin also had some off-field issues that scared a few teams away.

 

Again though, you could be right.

[JPS]

I've competed with a friend on correct draft picks with #1s being the overall tiebreakers. We are usually somewhere between 7-10 correct. Here is my entry:

 

1. KC. - Fisher

2. Jax - Joeckel

3. Oak - Lotuleilei

4. Phil - Jordan

5. Det - L. Johnson

6. Clev - Geno Smith

7. AZ - Cooper

8. Buf - Austin

9. Jets - Milliner

10. Ten - Warmack

11. SD - Floyd

12. Miami - Rhodes

13. Jets - Mingo

14. Car - Richardson

15. J. Jones

16. Vaccaro

17. Pitts - Eifert

18. Dall - Fluker

19. Giants - Ansah

20. Chi - Te'o

21. Cin - Hayden

22. St. L - Woods

23. Minn - S. Williams

24. Indy - D. Jones

25. Minn - Patterson

26. GB - Elam

27. Houston - Minter

28. Denver - D. Moore

29. Pats - Reid

30. Atl - Trufant

31. SF - Cyprien

32. Balt. - A. Brown

[thebandit27]

I believe you're vastly over estimating the value of Austin and vastly overestimating the value of "quick-twitch" slot receiver.

The rise of the Tight End has actually de-valued the "quick-twitch" Slot receiver.

Amoendola can't stay healthy, either can Harvin.

Welker is a freak that never gets appreciated just what a freak he is.

Can Austin have a Welker like impact? Yes. Is a team going to trade up to draft Austin at #8? Almost impossible. Austin isn't AJ Green or Julio Jones.

I'm not saying a trade down is impossible I'm saying your trade up/down target is not likely like 1/10000000000000000 likely imo.

should I buy a lottery ticket?

[dave mcbride]

Great call on the trade, bandit!

[1B4IDie]

should I buy a lottery ticket?

You should.

Well done Bandit. Very impressive.

I owe you a beer.

[JPS]

Got 7 right this year. What a weird year.