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Gore was 44, not 54. At age 34 Ray Davis is definitely older than the average rookie. By comparison Tremaine Edmunds is going into his 7th season and he's only 21... but every athlete is different so in that regard, age is just a number.

True. He's already 3 years older than Tremaine Edmunds.

When you see it laid out like this you realize how much turn over there’s been in the last couple of seasons from the entrenched ‘household’ names we’d all become accustomed to during this era of Bills football. Now gone are: Singletary Morse Gabe Davis Diggs Edmunds Tre White Poyer Hyde I know it’s all part of the business but it has to be weird for guys like Josh, Milano and Ed Oliver to look around the locker room.

I never knew about the snap rate as accordance to comp picks until the NFL stiffed us from the 3rd Rd pk we should've gotten from losing Edmunds. In my opinion it's a horrible way to factor the comp picks. A player can get injuries and still be great the rest of the yr or the following year. The NFL is not acting on good faith by adding these guidelines to the comp formula. Teams do base there entire off-seasons on these supposed comp picks and it's stupid in my opinion to have anything else in the formula other then what said player received in his contract. It's not the Bills fault that Edmunds didn't reach the threshold for snaps because he was hurt we still lost a big piece of our defense by not resigning him.

Can't disagree with the McD + (slow-playing) rookies sentiments, but... ...there have been significant challenges to our widely accepted view of McD's conservative rookie development approach. These include: O'Cyrus Torrence, Tremaine Edmunds, Tre White, Spencer Brown, Christian Benford, Groot and Ed Oliver. Roughly 1 rookie per year gets starting traction from the jump, on average. And usually another rookie or two begins to contribute with increasing frequency/impact as the season progresses. Bunch more really solid examples there: with Allen and Milano leading that accelerated year-one progression charge. Sounds to my Bills ears like Coleman will have EVERY chance to see the field a LOT early on, and like Bishop will definitely rotate in and play Teams, and Carter will absolutely be the #3 or #4 DT in the rotation there. I think Solomon will actually get a bunch of pass rush reps by mid-year if game scripts allow for it. (I hope Shorter and/or Shavers take a legitimate step forward this season. We all should, of course, but I am actually optimistic one of them will earn an outside spot.)

Uh, yes? We extended him before his 5th year option officially kicked in. Maybe it gave us an extra two months to negotiate, but that's all. Like I said, it's a bargaining chip. The same effect can be had by using the franchise tag if you really need it. The 5th year option is most useful for players like Edmunds or Rousseau where you're not quite sure what you have and you want that one extra year of tape to see if they're worth extending. No, they did it for the same reason Minnesota swapped one pick with NY at #10 - they got scared we would trade back with someone else (likely aided by a bit of salesmanship from Beane) and they would lose out on getting their guy. This happens all the time. Again, look at the trade value chart. #31 to #32 is -6 points. #32 to #33 is -4 points. #33 to #34 is -5 points. Teams are telling you that the 5th year option is worth less than the drop off in total contract value.

Could be they changed it. I think including void years to lower a cap hit is fine, but in the context of a comp pick discussion i'd almost have to eliminate them. How do you calculate an APY including void years IE Leonard Floyd. Either you don't get the comp pick because you "cut him" and have dead cap on your books, or you get the comp pick, but his APY is calculated as a 1 year deal at the full value. I do know the bengals moving into the 3rd was because of bates making all-pro. There are a few other reasons that edmunds could've moved from 3rd to 4th beyond his playing time. They also moved the player 3rd round cut-off up i believe when factoring in the coaching hire 3rd round picks.

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds. Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula - I agree that the NFL is right to not use a formula that uses cap number alone as that isn't the only thing tied to compensation. Void years allow you to pay a player a higher salary but lessen cap burden - but the average per year should remain the same if that's what you are measuring players against. The highest APY point value is the highest paid player, and the lowest APY point value is the lowest. Buffalo also lost their 3rd because jessie bates made 2nd team all-pro (honors category). This additional 20 points put him at 1878 points, which was 13 points higher than Edmunds. Bates was originally listed as a 4th round player that cancelled out with Orlando Brown. Orlando Browns 4th round value cannot cancel out a 3rd round player (unless they don't carry a net player loss), so Brown instead cancelled out Vonn Bell in the 6th. Looking at 2025, the only likely way we'd lose a pick is if hollins jumps into that cutoff (or settle falls behind it, or both). Hollins is ranked at 671 and is right next to the cutoff of 670, but he'd need to exceed his 45% snaps from 2023 in order to raise the 1281 point total. Other players in that range can do the same though - it isn't just tied to compensatory qualifying players. Settle falling out is probably less likely - he'd need to play fewer than 30% of snaps to lower his point total. Even at 0 snaps he's still 1284 which is above Hollins. Of all the free agents: Davis is a 4th, and 11 points clear of cutoff. He played 72% of snaps last year and barring major injury that seems likely again with ridley and zay jones departing and him and BTJ replacing. As long as buffalo remains a net loss, they will get a 4th for Davis. Leonard floyd is a 5th. Decreased snap counts likely don't bump him out. Curtis samuel would need to increase snaps considerably to jump into 5th round territory. If he jumps into 5, the 2nd comp pick becomes a 6 for Dane Jackson. Dane is very low on the 6th round chart, but he's a projected starter so i'd assume he sticks Dodson has a potential to jump into 6th if he starts. Johnson could maybe jump into 6. Edwards is barely in the cuttoff, as is settle. All this to say - i would say the 5th is at risk, but it would require either Samuel jumping into the 5th and moving the pick to the 6th. Or Hollins jumping in as a 4th CFA gained and we'd lose the lowest pick we had. I would say having 6 picks through round 4 is plenty anyway tbh.

Unless they do another change or Floyd or Davis miss an extended period of time next year - we'll get those picks. We didn't get the 3rd for two reasons. 1.) They on a whim decided to change the formula and incorporate things like void year money instead of just the strict cap number it was before - choosing to do it retroactively instead of going forward and 2.) Edmunds missed some time. Beane said they were talking to the league all year and they told him he was getting a 3rd, until they randomly decided to change the qualifications at the buzzer. I don't think they're going to do that again this year. It is wrong. Our picks are as follows: 1 2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs) 2 3 4 (from Chicago for a 2024 5th) 4 4 (Compensation for Davis) 5 (Compensation for Floyd) 6 (from NYG for Basham and our 2025 7th) 6 Our 5th was traded to Houston as part of the Diggs trade.

The ONLY reason it was put in the CBA was to give teams a negotiating point. For a QB, “we only have to pay you ~20M on the 5th year option, so to make this work for both of us, you need to consider that in your ask.” With a guy like Groot who is worth maybe 10M a year, you just guaranteed him more than he’s worth at this time, essentially resetting your own negotiation floor if you wanted to extend him. I think this front office does a lot of things really well, but the egregious 5th year option usage proves they do not get the art of negotiation or cap management to the degree the fan boys here like to think they do. The only player the Bills should have used it on was Allen and they obviously re-upped him before it was a point. Using it and not extending him was a major miss on Edmunds, I would argue it was a floor set point for Oliver, who was over paid for his output and sorry, not sorry, is not the big impact player people here want to believe either. So twice it’s cost you more than it would have to extend a guy at the time and once it’s allowed him to price himself off the team, the other it allowed to increase their contract to more than it should have been.

This is all Tremaine Edmunds fault but at least he is still young and can grow

I see Coleman on an Edmunds projection. Mostly blah, some stats and gone after 4. Bishop and Carter will get second contracts

Was reading article in todays BN that listed stats from Beanes draft class. I found it kind of interesting as in the past Beane often took people based on potential upside. Edmunds and Knox are a couple of names that come to mind. Even Allen is true of. Seems like his picks are more what can he do for me right away which likely reflects the fact that years back they more were drafting for long term future, but that has changed. The average age of the first nine picks was 22.8 years (oldest of any Beane class) and the average games of college experience was 46.4 (most of any Beane class); the six-year averages entering this draft were 22.0 years and 39.8 games. UCF offensive tackle Tylan Grable’s 58 college games are the most of any Beane pick.

His first five seasons in the NFL 2016-2021 he was one of the best LBs in football. Zero doubt. It was much commented on at the time in the Tremaine Edmunds debates but at the time there was definitely an inbalance in LB talent that skewed towards the NFC. He had some injuries never quite seemed to recover some of his speed and his zest after that. I am surprised he isn't older to be honest. But this is his 4th team in 4 years for a reason. He isn't quite the guy he used to be.

Thanks for this. I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three. I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others. And I agree with that assessment. He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes. I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly. (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)

I get the minority hiring comp picks or if a team truly wants a player back, but it seems weird that if a team actively lets a player go, why should they get a comp pick. Edmunds for example, it really doesn’t seem like we had any intention of re-signing him. Then we have a SB team getting the most comp picks, so we can’t say they are given out for parity.

This is the sneakiest Tre Edmunds thread I've seen here. Kudos.

I certainly hope that Allen was not involved in this pick. That is not his job. If the Bills picked Coleman because Allen wanted him then Beane definitely needs to be fired. My guess is that the involvement by Allen was prefunctory, sort of like King Charles officially has to approve all legislation before it becomes law. Coleman fits the high ceiling low floor profile of most early round Beane picks. Except for the 40 time, he is a freakish athlete whose college stats are not super impressive. Examples include Allen, Edmunds, Brown, Knox, Elam, and Rousseau. They are betting on that can teach him to separate in the pros. Hopefully they are right.

The kid is 20 (just 4 months older than Edmunds). He offered a reporter to tag along with him to find deals on clothing and asked for cookies. He wasn't trying to be funny. Everyone laughed because he was acting like a regular person and not above them like other players usually do. Nothing in that interview said diva.

That's all this is, like Edmunds. Give him an extra year to see if he can ever get to 10 sacks. If not, wave goodbye. I've been somewhat underwhelmed with Grootseau.

I agree with this. I think it is obvious that in Diggs, at the least, we had a guy who wanted to win a Superbowl and felt entitled to point fingers everywhere but at the guy he sees in the mirror for the causes the Bills have fallen short 3 years running. There have been a number of vets who I believe, signed with the Bills because they wanted a ring and thought they could ride the Bills to get there. After a couple of seasons, that stales. Vet leadership who from all appearances have great attitudes like Poyer and Hyde, had gotten old and the Bills needed to cut the cord and move on. So a "culture reset" is needed. It's not that we expect a 3rd round DLman to step up and become a leader in the DL room. That's expected of Da'Quan Jones and Ed Oliver. We're not expecting Bishop to necessarily be the DB "field general" his rookie year, that's expected of Edwards. But we're bringing in guys who have that sense of personal responsibility and ability to lead, as our "leaders in training" during this reset. To me, Coleman 100% fits Beane's draft profile for the first rounds. Drafting in the bottom of the 1st, he likes to take a high ceiling/low floor prospect. That's his Jam. I think this was true of Allen, true of Tre'maine Edmunds, true of Rousseau with his minimal collage experience, true of Elam, and true of Coleman. (I could make an argument it was true of Kincaid, as well). The downside is that sometimes these guys take a year or two to start contributing according to their potential. So it's especially a risk when we've moved out of the 1st so we don't have that cost-controlled 5th year on Coleman. We just have to hope that Coleman follows the Edmunds and Kincaid trajectory where he's an immediate starter and contributor even if he doesn't hit his full potential for a season or two, and not the Rousseau or (shudder) Elam trajectory. Whether or not, clearly Beane thought that risk was manageable in favor of moving up in the 5th McDermott said something once about the position coaches not liking to start rookies because it's more work for them to get the rookies prepared and ready to go; it's more comfortable to start a vet who knows his assignments and correctly interprets what he sees (this was 2020, talking about Ed Oliver, I believe). We've had some "churn" at the coaching assistants, and IMO part of that churn is seeking to move towards guys who are more willing to coach up the younger players and ride with them earlier in the season, in the hopes that they'll have had their growing pains and be ready to ride at the end. I can see both perspectives, but there's a point that if you ride with a vet who is in some ways a "better" player earlier in the season AND more likely to not make it through a full season, you then take a double-hit when you bring in a rookie. If you ride with a rookie and make up your mind to tolerate and correct some rookie mistakes, they're hopefully a better player by the last 3rd of the season AND if they're injured, the vet will be more able to come in with less learning curve. Yeah, I think people are getting it a bit mixed. They're wanting 2 WR because they wanted Coleman and, say, McConkey or maybe Legette and Coleman. Well, that was Either Or Not Both, so then folks are just salty that the Bills talent evaluation and theirs differ. People are mad that the Bills picked Coleman instead of Worthy, Pearsall, Legette, or McConkey. That's just one where time will tell; Beane has shown himself way smarter than a TBD draft afficionado at times. Other times he's shown himself "out" vs the guys TBD would have picked. There are some wild cards at play such as injuries - would Cody Ford have succeeded as a 2nd round pick if he hadn't been injured so much and tried so hard to play through it? Can't use a time machine to find out. Clearly the Bills could have taken Franklin instead of Carter at the bottom of the 3rd, but also clearly, he's a guy where 32 talent evaluators around the league differed significantly from the pundits who graded him as a top-10 WR and a 2nd round or top 50 player. The Bills seemed to want no part of him or of Mitchell. So then what we're talking about is whether there was a guy within reach from the 4th round on with whom we should have double-dipped. We're not talking "the Bills didn't take BTJ and Legette or Worthy. We're talking the Bills didn't take one of the guys in reach at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd AND a guy in the late rounds, and while yes, this draft's WR quality is good, that doesn't mean that the guys drafted in the 5th are automagically better than the guys we drafted or signed last season. That's the bottom line: whether they're right or wrong, the Bills like someone in the Shorter/Shavers/Hamler/Thompson/Isabella group and feel they have a better shot to contribute this season, better than they like Anthony Gould, Ainais Smith, or Jamari Thrash. I will admit Beane pisses me off at times when he talks as though the only way the Bills could have gotten a top WR like Ja'Marr Chase is to "suck that bad", when plainly, there were guys within reach of our original draft slot who have proven to be top WR.

Promising of what, exactly? If it's promise of making the roster and getting playing time and contributing on some level, then I agree. If it's promise of becoming an elite player, I don't see much of that in this class. I very much hope to be proven wrong, but Keon Coleman looks to me like his ceiling is as a high end WR2. Maybe Cole Bishop becomes a playmaking safety. Maybe Soloman is a steal at Edge and becomes a sack master. But when I look at Ray Davis, DeWayne Carter, a center, a couple project tackles, a special teams linebacker, and an undersized punt returner, I see what look like fine-to-good, sort of replacement level players. I see more of what Beane has done in the past: solid drafts that produce rosterable players, but no difference makers. He arguably hasn't found a difference maker in the draft since Josh Allen. Lots of good, steady, NFL caliber players. Few stars. The norm for drafts under Brandon Beane (ever since the Allen/Edmunds draft) has become "solid to good, but never great". No home runs. No All-Pros. No REAL difference makers. Right now, this draft just looks like the latest chapter in that book.