billsfan89

Every team has busts, the question is how does the busts in McBeane's tenure hold up to other teams? How does the late round finds measure up against what other teams do? I think you can safely say that the 2017-18 drafts were way better than the solid but unspectacular 2019-2020 drafts. And if this team does want to get over the hump the players drafted from 2021-2023 will have to develop better and produce more results than the 2019-2020 draft classes.

Aaron Schobel was the last DE draft to really hit. Schobel had 54 sacks in a 5 season span from 2002-2006 and another double-digit sack season with 10 sacks in 2009. All in all 78 sacks in 9 seasons which I would qualify as a very good pick. From 2002-2016 the Bills invested 4 picks in the top 2 rounds at DE. 2002-2003 they drafted Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denny, both were more or less decent role players at best. 2009 they drafted Aaron Maybin in the top 10 which was a huge miss (esp with Orakpo there) and then in 2016 the Bills drafted Shaq Lawson who after a sluggish start played decently in a contract year and then came back to the Bills on the cheap and is a solid role player. The Bills have under the McBeane era invested 3 picks in the first 2 rounds at DE. Boogie has already been traded. Groot and AJE are still on the roster but AJE is looking more like he is a fringe starter at best. Groot the jury is still out on. Given that since Schobel they have spent 7 picks in the first two rounds on the position it is really hard to think they haven't had at least one "solid hit" (I would say a player producing 2-3 double-digit sack seasons and some other 8ish sack years) unless AJE has an unexpected breakout the only hope for a home grown DE hit is Groot at this point.

How quickly people forget... The only true post-season choke job was 2021 as 13 seconds is inexcusable. 2020 the team hadn't made a deep run before and their entire WR core was injured by the first quarter of the AFCCG. 2022 the team underwent one of the most mentally exhausting seasons (far beyond just the Hamlin situation) since the 2007 Redskins (who had to deal with Sean Taylor's untimely passing in season) and were depleted by the time the playoffs came. I think McBeane certainly deserves a couple of more chances to right the ship and get over the hump.

I always thought Mularkey was a bad OC/Head Coach. When he reemerged with the Titans in the mid 2010's he dubbed his playcalling as "exotic smashmouth" which was marketed as a run-heavy offense with "modern" passing concepts and trick plays. It was nothing more than just running the ball a lot with some dumb over thought-out trick plays.

How good the Bills' drafting has been in recent seasons will be heavily revealed by the end of this season. 2017-2018 were both home run drafts. The Bills got 3 high-quality starters in 2017 plus a future first-round pick (Tre, Dawkins and Milano plus the 2018 KC first). 2018 was of course another home run. Josh is a franchise QB, T. Johnson is a very good "unsung hero" on the defensive side of the ball, Edumonds for all his ups and downs was a decent to good starter, and H. Phillips was productive as a defensive starter for a season or two. Also, Siran Neal has been a good ST role-player for the team. 2019 was decent, Oliver has not been the "Pro-Bowl" caliber player you would expect to get as a top 10 pick but he has been solid, Knox was a nice pickup and Singletary provided some value for four years at RB. 2020 was solid, factoring in not having a first-round pick (not counting Diggs as part of the draft class but weighing the draft class differently due to lacking a top pick). AJE has not lived up to his second round billing but turned in a solid season 3 and hopefully in year 4 is more productive, the Bills may or may not get "good" value for a late second round pick but they certainly got some production. Gabe Davis has been a productive WR esp for where he was picked and Bass has locked in on being one of the best kickers while Dane Jackson has held down as a solid defensive contributor/starter. 2019-2020 were not great draft classes but they were not bad ones either. But the Bills will need to get more "impact" and "high-end" player from 2021 draft classes and beyond if they hope to sustain success. 2021- Groot needs to develop into the high-end starter he was developed to be, The Bills will also need to get production out of Spencer Brown and maybe something out of Hamlin to really get good "value" out of the draft class. This season will tell if Brown can be a viable RT and what Groot can provide. Getting two good starters out of a draft class and a nice depth player is not bad at all. But getting only one starter unless they are an All Pro at a key position is not going to be great. 2022- If James Cook locks down RB, Elam and Benford are good corners and Shakir or Benford develop into decent starters or at least role players the draft will have turned out good. I know Benford has already locked down a starting position and Cook and Elam flashed good play their rookie seasons but they will need some of these players to develop. 2023- If Torrence and Kincaid are high-end starters for the offense and one other player develops the Bills will have done a solid job in 2023 esp factoring in they got a pair of sixth round picks for trading down. TLDR- 2017-2018 were great drafts, 2019-2020 were OK drafts jury is still out on 2021-2023. The more recent 2021-2023 drafts will need to pan out closer to the 2017-18 classes if the Bills want to be more successful. At worst McBeane is a solid to good drafter but will need to be better to sustain success.

Decent points but I can see a scenario where after three years Edmonds is cut from the Bears for not living up to the contract but is still a startable MLB. By 2027 he will still only be 29 and I can see him signing a one-year deal with the Bills to try to rebuild his value and get one more multi-year deal. It won't be a come back for peanuts deal like Shaq and to a lesser extend Phillips but it won't be pricing himself out of a possible Bills return either.

Backs are tricky, they can flare up out of nowhere or be managed and pain free days later. Hopefully Hyde is fine long term luckily the depth at safety is better than last season. Rapp is much better than the depth last season and Hamlin is more experienced as well.

Solid roster although RB is going to heavily depend on how Cook does this season. My roster is below not too great a feeling on this season but usually when I feel bad about a draft I make the finals in my league so who knows. QB - Dak Prescott - I am always a believer in taking a decent mid-level QB, got Dak in round 9 and he has a high floor and decent ceiling. Can easily be a top 5 fantasy QB but at worst will be a top 10ish fantasy QB. RB1- Ramondre Stevenson - Pats running backs are not to be trusted but Stevenson looks like the real deal and I don't think Zeke makes any significant difference. RB2- Dameon Pierce - Texans offense is not to be trusted but if anyone is going to breakout on that offense it is going to be Pierce who had a nice output on a bad offense last season. For me the value was great in round 6 so I took him to try and alleviate the RB situation a bit. WR1- Cooper Kupp - Easily will lead the league in targets and I trust McVay to use him. My concern is that he is a late-season risk for shutdown but I don't think that's something that I can project so easily. WR2- Garrett Wison - Went with the best WR available in round 2 and I think Wilson quickly becomes Rodgers only/favorite target similar to how Rodgers heavily relied on Devante Adams. WR3 - Gabe Davis - Gabe I think was in over his head in 2022 having to shoulder a lot of the offensive load for the first time. I got him in round 10, I think he makes for a nice plug and play WR3 this season. I think he cracks 1k in yards and 6-8 TD's. Nothing spectacular but solid WR3 production. TE - Dallas Godert - Top 10 TE got him in the 8th round. Philly is going to score a lot and even though Godert is the third option on that offense that has a lot of mouths to feed I think Godert still gets you top 10 TE production with top 5 upside. Flex - Alexander Mattison - Great depth at RB and my flex to start the season. May have overdraft him in the 5th round but we will see exactly how this gamble pays off. High risk high reward. Kicker - Carmeon Dicker Chargers - Chargers will put up a decent amount of points and Dicker isn't a bad kicker Defense/ST - Baltimore - Ravens will have a top tier defense easy value there. Bench George Pickens - Could easily be a flex or WR3 option with high levels of WR2 low WR1 upside. Jared Goff - Late round backup QB could easily be a top 7 fantasy QB. Dalton Kincaid - Smart gamble to take, if used more as a slot WR he can have top 8-10 TE production. Tyler Alleiger - A decent chance to take on a RB with talent who is an injury away from being a top 10 RB candidate. Romeo Doubs - Young WR who flashed a decent amount last season. Took him with my last pick, I think he has WR3/Flex upside.

Benford is a minor surprise I thought Dane would have been CB2 but the depth at CB is insane. Torrence is not a shock, he has been plug and play since day one. Benford is interesting. Third round pick really didn't do much in 2022 but hopefully, he can show up and show out.

I loved the signing of Ford but he has not shown out in the pre season. The Bills will need to control the line of scrimmage to contain the Jets ground attack

D Jones and Poona Ford are going to be tested to hold the line.

I actually think Edumonds will be back in a Bills uniform after 3 or so years in Chicago. I don’t think Edumonds has any chance to live up to that contract but will still be enough of a player that the Bills will welcome him back similar to how Shaq and Phillips came back to be solid role players

Rodgers reworked deal only frees up space for next season. It doesn’t have an impact on the current season. The Jets had enough space to go after Cook. As for Evans not sure how much the team hypothetically trading for him would have to intake but the Jets have a little bit of space to play with but not drastically more than the Bills.

In a league with a salary cap there is only so much money to go around so the ability to break the market is just not there as much.

Here is my take Best Performing Rookie: Torrence - I think Kincaid will have a nice impact but I think Torrence is going to be a plug-and-play guard. Offensive non-skill position MVP: Mitch - I think Mitch is going to put in another solid season. I think that not only will he play well but I think he will help get McGovern up to speed in a new system and help Torrence in his rookie campaign. Best Running Back: Cook - I think Cook is going to break out if he can stay healthy 15-18 carries per game will lead to heavier numbers and better production. Offensive Dark Horse: Trent Sheffield - I was torn between Shakir and Sheffield. But I think Sheffield has shown more in the off-season and while I don't think he is going to have a huge season but I think he will have a nice impact with 500 + yards and 40ish receptions which for a WR4 is solid production. Defensive Dark Horse: AJ Epenesa - He quietly had 6.5 sacks last season but for whatever reason those sacks somehow didn't make him stand out. I think he has a similar sack total (6-8 sacks) but his sacks are more impactful and he makes plays in run defense. He is in a contract year and started his NFL career during the Covid off-season and was asked to shed a lot of weight. He struggled heavily his first two years and then had a better third season. With one more off-season under his belt and the motivation of getting a contract, I think he shows out a bit. Defensive MVP: Tre White - I think White comes back to his All-Pro form. He has by all accounts looked good in the off-season and is now more removed from his ACL injury. He also got a chance to play towards the end of last season so mentally he has knocked off the rust but now physically may be there. Player Most Likely to Underperform: Jordan Poyer - Both safeties are coming off seasons where they were hurt or banged up and both are older players. Both are into their 30's. I think Poyer will regress. I still think he will be a decent safety but just not the All-Pro or Pro-Bowl caliber player he has consistently been.

The Bills the past three seasons have had the roster to contend but have come up short three times for various reasons. 2020 - Got to the AFCCG but lost to a more experienced KC team. The Bills also suffered injuries to literally all of their receivers by the time they got to the AFCCG. Beasley go hurt to end the regular season, John Brown battled an ankle injury, Gabe Davis got hurt against the Ravens and Diggs got hurt early in the AFCCG. The only healthy receiver was Mac for most of that game. So combined with the relative inexperience of the team and the injuries to the WR corps led to a bad showing against the defending champions. 2021 - 13 seconds cost this team a real shot at the Super Bowl. Had the Bills simply been able to Squibb the ball or make one decent defensive play they would have gone to host the AFCCG against a Bengals team that had a terrible offensive line. 2021 was simply a choke by this team and inexcusable. 2022 - The Bills despite the talent they had and hosting the game in the divisional round simply ran out of gas from an emotionally exhausting season. Even before Hamlin's situation, they started the off-season with the Topps shooting and then ended training camp with the passing of Knox's younger brother. Then in season they had a game relocated due to a freak snowstorm (which coincided with a flu outbreak) and then had their Christmas day travel nearly thrown off due to another bad snow storm. They also had a decent amount of "normal" football adversity including seeing Dane get carted off in the home opener and had a lot of nagging injuries early on plus serious season-ending injuries to Hyde and Von both vet leaders on the team. THEN you had the Hamlin situation and the team was just out of gas mentally which I honestly think is understandable. The 2022 Bills probably had the most adversity off the field as any team individually has had since the 2007 Redskins who had Sean Taylor die in season tragically and the 2005 Saints who had to relocate right before the season started due to Hurricane Katrina. As far as team-building errors? The front office did as good of a job as they could realistically do from 2017-2020. The 2017 and 2018 drafts were outstanding and the 2019 draft was solid. 2020 they pulled off the much-needed "big move" with the Diggs trade. But I think the errors this team made started in 2021 and 2022 with over-investing in the defense. 2021 they could have spent the Boogie pick on offense and 2022 they could have invested the Elam and Bernard picks onto the offense. The team also could have spent the Von Miller cash on a big offensive weapon. No front office is perfect but investing most of your premium picks on defense and your biggest free agency contract on defense was a mistake. They have somewhat changed that with the first two picks being on offense in 2023. TLDR: 2020 the team was still getting experience and had an abnormal amount of WR injuries, 2021 was a complete choke and in 2022 the team was drained due to an emotionally exhausting season.

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12-5 seems like a good projection. I like the Bills flying under the radar this season. I think offensively they are way better. Much stronger along the interior offensive line and Kincaid and the smaller adds at WR will make a difference. The team is also still strong defensively and on special teams so thinking they will not be above 10 wins just makes little sense to me.

Bills cutting their losses on this one. I am glad that McBeane is able to do so. There was a log jam at DE. Even with Von on the PUP you had Floyd, Shaq, Groot and AJ there. You then have Von coming back whose going to displace someone on the roster if they were carrying five DE's. Shorten the rotation a bit and see how those four play. Getting even just a late round pick back and stock up on the 2024 draft where you will need to acquire more cheap talent to replace some of the aging components on the team.

I generally agree that RB is not a position I would invest massive resources into as I think offensive line is a much better investment for those cap dollars. But keeping a great top 5-7 RB at a cost is not always a bad idea in certain circumstances.

There have been some RB's who got a big contract after their rookie deals and played well in recent years. Derrick Henry - Signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal after the 2019 season. He rushed for 2k yards in 2020 and then after an injury-shortened 2021 (where he still nearly pushed 1k yards) he pushed over 1500 yards in 2022. About 2.5 seasons of production and could still add to that. LeSean McCoy - Signed a pair of big contracts starting in 2012 with a 45 million dollar deal and then got a 5 year 50 million dollar deal in 2015 with the Bills. From 2012 to 2017 Shady had 4 seasons with over 1k yards including leading the league in rushing in 2013. Alvin Kamara - Signed a big extension in 2020 off-season, has more or less performed the way he did from 2017-2019 being a key part of NOLA's offense. Nick Chubb - Signed a big extension prior to 2021 and has turned in a pair of big seasons in 2021 and 2022. Dalvin Cook - Prior to the 2020 season he signed a massive extension. From 2020 to 2022 he rushed for 1k yards on 4.4 yards per carry average or better. Including a very impressive 1500+ yard season in 2020. While there have been examples like Lev Bell and Zeke where second RB contracts have flopped. There have been plenty that have delivered.

This place is hyperbolic and all over the place, I love it and hate it.

Really hope McGovern is good to go, but good to see Edwards get snaps with the starting crew. It's good to get these guys some play together in the pre-season.

Purdy is the right guy at the right time on the right team. He doesn’t need to be an “elite” QB to win with the 49ers. He can be a Jimmy G game manager plus on that team and win a lot of games esp on a dirt cheap contract. Not sure if he will have a better career trajectory than Jimmy G but had Jimmy G simply been healthy he would still be there.

I wouldn’t do it, Lance’s cap hit is fairly high for a backup Qb, I don’t know how his cap hit would change if traded (but the Bills can’t afford a project backup QB with a large cap hit) so unless the Niners are willing to eat most of his cap the trade just doesn’t make sense for the Bills. At that point I would rather go with Kyle Allen, It’s not like Keenam did all that much while here anyway