Hold on here...time for a Saints reality check.

[OCinBuffalo]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

[sjjr]

Nice Post. I agree the Bills can be very competitive in this game and also matchup well with New Orleans.

[eball]

I love you, man.

[basskik11]

good post! i agree...this is a tough spot for the Saints.

[BillsVet]

No question Brees and the offense can light it up, while their defense is not especially strong. OTOH, Buffalo runs a no-huddle offense which may result in some quick 3 and outs, although their coach is a defense first run the ball type coach. Buffalo's run defense has been good, but their pass defense not so much.

[Tsaikotic]

what was the pass rush like against Brees in those two games?...if the Bills hit/hurry Brees as much as they did Leftwich, we could see Brees falter.

[BuffaloBill]

OC thanks for the insight, you've clearly put time and thought into it. I have not watched the Saints yet this year. Your thoughts help to add perspective to what by score and raw stats appears to be a very tough game for the Bills.

[Chandler#81]

Thanks for the insight, OC.

 

All this aside, Drew Brees is playing unconsious -and has been since the Chargers kicked him to the curb. He's truely elite now, and no lead will be safe against him.

 

They're due for a knock-down and we're due for an 'April Surpize'!

 

Go Bills

[Beerball]

We are doooooooomed.

 

Herm Edwards semi-picked the Bills this morning. He picked the Lions to finally snap their streak against Washington and said don't be surprised if Buffalo beats the Saints. Likes the way the team has played in games 1 & 2.

[goynahan]

great post. for the past week i have felt like we should be competitive in this game but i havent really thought about why until i read this post. we got this in the bag GO BILLS

[GR8PRKN]

Great insight... I think OUr Run D will be good with Bush as the Primamry. There number one is not 100 percent...

[Phlegm Alley]

I agree on all points.

 

One thing I noticed while watching the Saints/Iggles game on Sunday was a boneheaded coaching move on Andy Reid's part to give the Saints, and their high powered offense, the ball back with under 2 minutes remaining in the second quarter, with the game tied, 10-10.

 

The Eagles were pinned deep in their own territory (at their own 2 yard line). The Saints had 2 time outs. The Eagles ran on 1st and 2nd downs and gained a total of 3 yards. The Saints called a time out after each Eagles run. It was now 3rd and 7 with 1:33 left on the clock before the half, the Eagles had the ball inside their own 5 yard line, with a QB making his first career start, in a tied ball game agianst a team with a dominant offense that will make you pay.

 

Conventional wisdom would tell you to run the ball, running the clock to about 45 seconds in the half, right? ANdy Reid opted for the pass, which was nearly picked off, resulting in PHI having to punt, and leaving 1:20 on the clock and only 54 yards for Drew Brees to lead his team down the field for the TD.

 

NOLA scored only 2 plays later making it 17-10. PHI kicked a FG before the half, but instead of it being a possible 3 point lead, it was a 4 point lead going into the half.

 

To me, it was a major turning point in the game.

[richNjoisy]

great post OC! Thanks for the analysis

 

The Saints were 8-8 last year and 7-9 the year before.

 

After the 2-0 start, people are putting them in the Super Bowl

 

time for a speed bump (Buffalo)

 

Go Bills!

 

-RnJ

[eball]

No question Brees and the offense can light it up, while their defense is not especially strong. OTOH, Buffalo runs a no-huddle offense which may result in some quick 3 and outs, although their coach is a defense first run the ball type coach. Buffalo's run defense has been good, but their pass defense not so much.

BillsVet, you're one of the most negative (I know, you prefer "realistic") posters around. That said, what's your take on the fact that Gregg Williams is a "scheme and substitution" coach and how the Bills' no huddle offense may impact that?

[muffmonster]

If you just pay attention to ESPN and the final scores of their games they are very scary. Nice write up...It puts the Saints into perspective. One thing for sure though they capitalize on other teams mistakes so Buffalo will have to play a tight game.

[phillyrich]

Thank goodness. This is the third different post that I am writing on trying to hammer home the score of the NO/PHL game was not a true indication of the game itself. Nice summary, on the money. Go Bills. Sunday will be a four point game, I not picking for/against the Bills cause I know better

[Realist]

Great post OC, nice analysis.

 

If the Bills limit or even eliminate their mistakes, (turnovers, boneheaded playcalls, etc.) this looks like a game the Bills can win.

[first_and_ten]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

 

Wow, you have way too much time on your hands, LOL. But really good breakdown nonetheless. The one thing I do question is the special teams analysis. We haven't been superior on special teams this year. Past few years, yes.This year, not in the first two games. Hopefully this will change.

[StupidNation]

One of the best threads in a long time. Thanks for the homework and the good reasoning. Not a big homer, but we can play well with any team on any day as long as our offense is working to some degree. Our D is getting to the point where I cannot see a 40 point game without a lot of turn-overs on O or ST.

[OCinBuffalo]

Wow, you have way too much time on your hands, LOL. But really good breakdown nonetheless. The one thing I do question is the special teams analysis. We haven't been superior on special teams this year. Past few years, yes.This year, not in the first two games. Hopefully this will change.

I humbly submit that this took me 15 friggin minutes to write. About a half hour to watch the highlights and research, etc.

 

Anyway, while we haven't been razor sharp on STs this year, we still have a significant edge on a team who ST are on the verge of being terrible. It's early, sure, but from what I saw we can expect some big returns, and more importantly, we should be able to pin them back on kicks and punts. Basically I am saying that this has the potential to be Seattle last year in terms of a ST mismatch.

[Dan]

Excellent analysis, and greatly appreciated. However, the biggest weakness on the Bills is their passing defense. The Saints strength is their passing offense. On that alone, this is potentially huge mismatch in the Saints favor.

 

So, if all things play out accordingly, the Saints pass effectively on us and put up points. The question then is can we match them in a shootout? I just don't feel comfortable in a shoot out game. So for me, this game comes down to... what do we do to slow down Brees and the passing game? I don't have the answer. I'm just thinking that, that will be the key to the game.

[first_and_ten]

I humbly submit that this took me 15 friggin minutes to write. About a half hour to watch the highlights and research, etc.

 

Anyway, while we haven't been razor sharp on STs this year, we still have a significant edge on a team who ST are on the verge of being terrible. It's early, sure, but from what I saw we can expect some big returns, and more importantly, we should be able to pin them back on kicks and punts. Basically I am saying that this has the potential to be Seattle last year in terms of a ST mismatch.

Well, i hope you're right. We shall see

[cowtippur]

It's so nice to see some love and optimism back around here. It was a long off season of doom and gloom.

[ChasBB]

you beat me to it, but my post wasn't going to be nearly so lengthy. Fact is the Saints have been gifted many turnovers to rack up the points. I'm sure they are good and deserve attention, but let's not make them out to be world champs just yet because they are not. The Bills should win this game.

[Fan in San Diego]

Nice analysis, Go Bills ! Lets kick ass !

[Clippers of Nfl]

love the post. i just hope it all means something and we dont get stomped on. this is an upset league. the bengals did it last sunday. why cant we?

 

go bills.

[eball]

I'll tell you what, this team is prepared. Just watched TO's Wednesday press conference. He specifically brought up the fact that scores can be misleading and the Saints were only up 17-13 at the half before Philly gift-wrapped two short fields to start the 3rd quarter.

 

Maybe he read this thread.

[drewbreeesss]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

 

 

 

You forgot to mention the stat that shows the Saints didn't use their 4 WR set at all (NOT ONCE) due to Moore being out. He's ready to go this week. You really did a great job with this post., but you did leave out that one little stat. The bottom line is that they won going away. It's amazing.You've turned the best offense in the NFL into the worst. Bunch of lucky mo fo's. Saints should apologize for winning.

[Koufax]

I agree with the initial post. The Saints are a good team, but they are overrated right now and while being a high flying offense, they are not a dominant team. I also think our pass defense actually matches up well against them, especially as our kickers give us good field position to work with. Brees can move the ball half the field as much as he wants, and he can get 2-3 touchdowns as well, and we still win this game. We need to get some pressure with our front 4 (he is smart against the blitz) and not worry about Brees's fantasy numbers, but instead just the football scoreboard.

[NicholasCal1]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

i think you hit a home run with this post. bottom line protect the football and don't give up the big play.

[drewbreeesss]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

 

And the flip side of your post-http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2009/09/saints-eagles_film_study_conse.html

[jester43]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

1. The Saints have averaged 12 drives a game, and they have started them from their own 40 yard line on average.

* It's important to note that, while the Bills opponents have also gotten a lot of drives, that has been largely due to positive things like: pick 6s, and us scoring...and not due to give aways, 3 and outs, or #2 below.

 

2. Opposing QBs have thrown 5 meaningful(6 total), give-away picks. None of the interceptions were due to excellent play from the Saints D. Rather, they were the other team's QB hitting them in the #s. All of them have given away huge field position. 3 of them have resulted in TDs. Essentially, the Saints have yet to face a NFL "varsity" QB.

 

3. The Saints are vulnerable to big plays, as well as the running game. They are especially vulnerable in the kicking game. They have yet to play a good special teams opponent, and, have gotten extremely short fields due to #2, hence #1.

 

Detroit Game:

 

1. Um...it's Detroit? You are playing them at home? Rookie QB's first game?

 

2. The Saints average drive start, of which they had 13, was their 39 yard line. You give any top 15 offense 13 drives from their 40 yard line and and yeah, we can expect them to score a lot of points. I don't care how good a defense is, you can't expect them to not give up at least 28 points given these circumstances. After all, the Saints only needed to score 4/13 times. We are talking about friggin' Detroit here...so we can replace "good" with "terrible" and therefore replace 28 points with 45.

 

3. Somebody remind me why I am analyzing an NFL football game involving the Lions again please...rookie QB throws 3 picks...blah, blah, blah. Why are we even considering the stats from this game as statistically significant?

 

Eagles Game:

 

1. Once again, the Saints average drive start, of which they had 11( ) was their 40 yard line. Same thing all over again as in the Detroit game.

 

2. The score at half time was 17-13. Hardly an example of overwhelming potency on offense, or of dominating a game. And this time, they were playing a respectable team. What happened?

A. The Iggles fumbled the kick off to start the 3rd quarter, giving the Saints the ball on their 22 yard line. Now, understanding that "yeah, it's a lucky break, but you still have to score the TD", a huge turnover like that, and capitalizing on it, put the Iggles down 2 scores immediately, and, for the rest of the game.

B. As if that wasn't bad enough, back up QB Kolb comes out 3 plays later and throw an AWFUL pick giving the Saints the ball on their 24 yard line. Saints score a TD and now it's 31-13 at 11:39 in the 3rd. The game is now completely changed, and the Eagles, just like their fans, aren't historically known for their mental strength/intestinal fortitude.

 

3. Meanwhile...

Near-Rookie Kolb threw for almost 400 yards on this D...and 196 of that was in the first half, when the game was close or tied. So there goes the "yeah, but, they were throwing because they were behind argument"...right out the window. In fact Kolb had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half. It wasn't until the second half, when Kolb threw his 2 meaningful(3rd didn't matter) picks, that the Saints scored 31 points.

 

Sorry but these three are game-killers, I don't care who you are. Looks a hell of a lot more like the Eagles lost...rather than the Saints won, and Detroit played like...Detriot. I will give the Saints credit for putting together a total of 5 long drives. However by and large the Eagles offense gave away that game...and Detroit...

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1. I think we can all agree that the Bills are going to put up more than 231 yards of total offense, so you can forget about Brees getting 13 drives from his 40.

 

2. The Eagles WERE running and west coasting their way just fine on the Saints in the first half of their game. In fact, in the first half both Eagle RBs were running for 5 yards a carry. If it wasn't for the 3 minute melt down at the beginning of the second half, it's fair to assume that they would have ended up with 120 yards total rushing(EDIT: they had 60 at half time...so 120 is a conservative estimate). That's crazy #s for a West Coast offense...uh..that relies on short passing to supposedly replace the run game. Remember? No way the Saints score 48 points if that happens. In fact, if that happens the Saints probably lose this game.

 

3. Clearly the Saints can be run on by our offense. But even more importantly, they can be run on in special teams. Therefore....if the Bills can use their superior special teams to reverse this trend I have found, and instead, start 10 drives from THEIR 40 yard line on average, then this game becomes a relatively easy win for the Bills. Yeah, I said it. I could be wrong, but based on what I have seen so far, I highly doubt it.

it's not the saints i'm worried about. we're down 2 starters.

[transient]

No question Brees and the offense can light it up, while their defense is not especially strong. OTOH, Buffalo runs a no-huddle offense which may result in some quick 3 and outs, although their coach is a defense first run the ball type coach. Buffalo's run defense has been good, but their pass defense not so much.

 

Been pointed out before, but bears repeating, no huddle is not hurry up. AVP and TE have varied the pace of this offense over the past two games. Gives TE time to read defenses, but ball is frequently snapped with only seconds left on the game clock. Three and outs were the norm last year, they just took more time to discuss unsuccessful plays in the huddle without as much time to audible out of them after.

 

drewbreeesss, shouldn't you be preparing for the game and not wasting your time posting on a message board? For the record, I don't think outlining how the Saints came by their points does anything to invalidate their offense, however the number of turnovers certainly factors in to the number of points they put up. As far as the article explaining that they used a "conservative gameplan," this does nothing to refute the idea that Detroit and Philly continually turning the ball over aided the Saints in racking up points, and also for the most part does not address their special teams play or their defense, therefore not really a "flip-side."

[drewbreeesss]

Been pointed out before, but bears repeating, no huddle is not hurry up. AVP and TE have varied the pace of this offense over the past two games. Gives TE time to read defenses, but ball is frequently snapped with only seconds left on the game clock. Three and outs were the norm last year, they just took more time to discuss unsuccessful plays in the huddle without as much time to audible out of them after.

 

drewbreeesss, shouldn't you be preparing for the game and not wasting your time posting on a message board? For the record, I don't think outlining how the Saints came by their points does anything to invalidate their offense, however the number of turnovers certainly factors in to the number of points they put up. As far as the article explaining that they used a "conservative gameplan," this does nothing to refute the idea that Detroit and Philly continually turning the ball over aided the Saints in racking up points, and also for the most part does not address their special teams play or their defense, therefore not really a "flip-side."

 

Posting is the reason I'll throw 4 more td passes this week.

[Realist]

Posting is the reason I'll throw 4 more td passes this week.

I don't doubt that one bit. I just hope the Bills put up 5 TD's.

 

Nobody is discrediting what they Saints have done so far. This poster is just saying the Bills have a chance. Nothing wrong with that. No one said Buffalo was going to crush the Saints 'cause the Saints suck.

[OCinBuffalo]

You forgot to mention the stat that shows the Saints didn't use their 4 WR set at all (NOT ONCE) due to Moore being out. He's ready to go this week. You really did a great job with this post., but you did leave out that one little stat. The bottom line is that they won going away. It's amazing.You've turned the best offense in the NFL into the worst. Bunch of lucky mo fo's. Saints should apologize for winning.

No...I clearly disclaimed what I wrote twice = "you still have to score the TD when the opposition gives you a gift" and, "I will credit them for 5 long drives". Nobody said anything about the Saints offense being bad. Quite the opposite. Let me spell it out for you: if you give a good offense a lot of opportunity, they will execute....because they are um...good. I can be found here in case you need any other profound insights, such as "water is wet, and, Obama is having a hard time with the difference between actions and words."

 

However, none of that is my point, so any time you want to stop arguing apples and start addressing my oranges is fine.

 

The fact is the offenses of the teams the Saints have played so far have done absolutely nothing, or, have hindered the overall game for the ENTIRE team due to their own terrible play, and not due to anything the Saints have done. The fact is that these teams have also done next to nothing with the field position they have gained, or kept the Saints from gaining, on special teams. The fact is that having two games given away to the Saints offense does nothing to resolve the fact that their defense is patently weak.

 

The reason that the Bills have been passed on so much is that we have in fact been up 2 scores for 100 of a possible 120 minutes in games so far. We have been trying to kill clock and play prevent, a mistake which has hopefully been addressed. We finally got away from that only at the end of last game and learned from our mistakes. Talking about a pass defense that is purposely trying to give away passing yards in trade for time, and saying "see they are a bad pass defense"...is specious at best. However I am ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN we will hear that dopey analysis from the usual retards....

 

...meanwhile we have a varsity QB and three pro-bowl caliber players on offense in Owens, Evans, and Freddie Jackson...(I guarantee you will remember his name after Sunday) and that has nothing to do with our pass defense. Tell me what Brees, et al is going to do to stop those 4 guys while sitting on the bench?

 

...which brings me back to the reason I wrote this and the OP: this game is being framed a certain way based on poor understanding of data, statistics based on that data, and apparent ignorance of the situational factors that created those stats. A reality check was necessary, not to remove facts like "the Saints offense is playing well", but to make sure we are looking at ALL the facts, like "The Bills running game >>>>>> the Saints run defense".

 

Oh and for those playing along at home: this one took me 5 minutes

[Thurman#1]

Interesting post.

 

It's worth noting that the Bills drive start has been the 30 and they have had 21 drives (counting the McKelvin fumble, which I do, as it was a possession, though not a drive. Feel free to disagree with that one, though.) Only 1.5 drives / game less than the Saints.

 

Against Tampa Bay the Bills also had 12 drives. You'll notice we scored a lot less than the Saints did.

 

The Bills have scored 2.714 points per drive.

 

The Saints 3.875.

 

And yeah, some of that is a result of good drive starts. But not all that much of it. The Saints offense is terrific. And they were able to collect those turnovers. Almost any INT is partly a result of good pressure, good choice of defense, good position, etc.

 

I'd argue that the Saints D has simply played well.

 

This is going to be a very tough one for the Bills. Do they have a chance? Of course. But it will be tough.

[BillsFanNC]

Not surprisingly, Saints fans don't agree with your analysis OC...

 

 

http://whodatzone.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=33327

[Mr. WEO]

Interesting post.

 

It's worth noting that the Bills drive start has been the 30 and they have had 21 drives (counting the McKelvin fumble, which I do, as it was a possession, though not a drive. Feel free to disagree with that one, though.) Only 1.5 drives / game less than the Saints.

 

Against Tampa Bay the Bills also had 12 drives. You'll notice we scored a lot less than the Saints did.

 

The Bills have scored 2.714 points per drive.

 

The Saints 3.875.

 

And yeah, some of that is a result of good drive starts. But not all that much of it. The Saints offense is terrific. And they were able to collect those turnovers. Almost any INT is partly a result of good pressure, good choice of defense, good position, etc.

 

I'd argue that the Saints D has simply played well.

 

This is going to be a very tough one for the Bills. Do they have a chance? Of course. But it will be tough.

I think Thurman's is a better post than the OP's.

 

Pointing out that Brees had a lot of short fields doesn't tell us much. There is no reason to believe that he can't put together sustained/long drives. The point should be that he scores frequently when given the opportunity.

[Alphadawg7]

Yeah, yeah, yeah we have all heard the big numbers....but unlike the dopes at ESPN etc., I prefer to actually watch and understand the game...essentially the "how" they have done what they have. Also, I know all you KC Joyner fans are sure to be upset about my proper use of statistical analysis here, but you will have to get over it

 

After watching the game films and looking at the play by play info, and then the stats, a few glaring points appear to have been overlooked:

 

Nice post in terms of football info, and I get what you are saying, but there is one fundamental problem with your thread. This isnt the first year the Saints offense has been dominant, so your sample size invalidates all your points. Not saying they are not valid for those games, as they are, but they really give you no reliable information as you completely ignore last year. Drew Brees threw for over 5000, yes 5000, yards last year, most of which missing key weapons for large chunks of the season, including Bush and Shockey.

 

This year, they have been missinng their best RB too in Pierre.

 

So, while your thread shows a lot of what happens in those games this year, it doesnt lessen the threat of the Saints offense in any way becuase this offense has been this dangerous and potent for several seasons now regardless of how the D did, where they started with the ball, etc.