Game week thread - Bills at Patriots*

[Mat68]

Im curious in what area and what measure is New England better than Buffalo?  I’ll give them Davis and Gonzales.  The outside wrs for Buffalo are not the deciding factor in the outcome imo.  They are a less experienced, less explosive, lesser overall version of the Bills.  Buffalo has less than 1.5 turnovers they win by 3 touchdowns. 

[Success]

18 minutes ago, AZSanta said:

How in the world can we have a roster with wrs thank cant get open no matter the matchup? It boggles my mind. This reflects horribly on Beane. 

 

It just seems like that position unit was a total blind spot for him, especially considering the comments in that interview last summer.

 

I think he felt like Allen was so good that he could make anyone a star or something.  The neglect of that position is kind of mind boggling.

 

[finn]

9 minutes ago, AZSanta said:

How in the world can we have a roster with wrs thank cant get open no matter the matchup? It boggles my mind. This reflects horribly on Beane. 

The matchups are one thing, still not getting open after Allen buys more time--and more time, and MORE, and sometimes even MORE time--and they still don't get open, that's another thing altogether. You look at the tape, and the wide receivers are either running into coverage, jogging around with the cover man in their hip pocket, or sprinting down the field with no separation. At best, they break open briefly, frantically signal, then get covered again. 

 

I'm hoping for a breakout game from Cooks. (I've written off Palmer and Coleman, and I wonder if the team has, too.) If they're going all the way, it'll be because of the tight ends and running backs, with an occasional contribution from Shakir, Cooks, and Shavers. 

 

Man, what a missed opportunity! With even one stud receiver, or better one plus a strong WR2, this could be easily be the best Bills offense of all time. Every other piece is in place. They would have rocked the league. 

[Success]

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Im curious in what area and what measure is New England better than Buffalo?  I’ll give them Davis and Gonzales.  The outside wrs for Buffalo are not the deciding factor in the outcome imo.  They are a less experienced, less explosive, lesser overall version of the Bills.  Buffalo has less than 1.5 turnovers they win by 3 touchdowns. 

 

They have a better defense.  They can pressure the passer better, and cover WR's better. Though, they're not great against the run.

 

We have a better QB, RB, O-line and tight ends.  Their WR's are better.

 

Their roster is solid.  The most glaring difference (to me) is at QB.   Allen regularly wins games almost solely on his own.  Maye has obviously played well, but he isn't close to that level.

 

[eball]

18 hours ago, Boo Radley Boston said:

Facts

 

Facts without context -- the hallmark of visitors to another team's message board.

 

Bye now, Boo...

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

6 minutes ago, finn said:

The matchups are one thing, still not getting open after Allen buys more time--and more time, and MORE, and sometimes even MORE time--and they still don't get open, that's another thing altogether. You look at the tape, and the wide receivers are either running into coverage, jogging around with the cover man in their hip pocket, or sprinting down the field with no separation. At best, they break open briefly, frantically signal, then get covered again. 

 

I'm hoping for a breakout game from Cooks. (I've written off Palmer and Coleman, and I wonder if the team has, too.) If they're going all the way, it'll be because of the tight ends and running backs, with an occasional contribution from Shakir, Cooks, and Shavers. 

 

Man, what a missed opportunity! With even one stud receiver, or better one plus a strong WR2, this could be easily be the best Bills offense of all time. Every other piece is in place. They would have rocked the league. 

Well, it’s hard to tell if Palmer can get open because he never plays.  Separation was supposedly one of his strengths in prior seasons, and seemed like he was finally primed for a bigger game against Atlanta before getting hurt.

 

But yeah, otherwise it seems like against a team with strong corners like NE, probably should focus on trying to run the ball and first reads through the air should be the TEs and RBs, or Josh just running the ball.  I’ve seen enough of Josh get pummeled against some defenses while his WRs try to get open.

[muppy]

T-Minus 24 hours - 48 minutes - and 5 seconds until Kickoff

 

aka one more sleep

 

It can't get here fast enough

 

GO BILLS!

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

They have a better defense.  They can pressure the passer better, and cover WR's better. Though, they're not great against the run.

 

We have a better QB, RB, O-line and tight ends.  Their WR's are better.

 

Their roster is solid.  The most glaring difference (to me) is at QB.   Allen regularly wins games almost solely on his own.  Maye has obviously played well, but he isn't close to that level.

 

I dont see it.  Thier run defense since Williams got hurt is much worst than Buffalo.  Buffalo has higher rated pass defense. Defenses are closer than many think and Buffalo has a significantly better offense.  

[Since1981]

shocking take. #17 hits Superman prior to mid 3rd Quarter Bills WIN. We see Clark Kent until start of 4Q they LOSE. 

 

very complex analysis right here. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

54 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I dont see it.  Thier run defense since Williams got hurt is much worst than Buffalo.  Buffalo has higher rated pass defense. Defenses are closer than many think and Buffalo has a significantly better offense.  

Yea you really gotta take defensive stats with a grain of salt for both these teams (even more so with the pats)

 

The schedules have just been so easy.  Pats have played 7 of the 8 worst offenses in the league and 10 out of the bottom 12.  The bills got chiefs and Texans instead of the pats getting the two worst offenses in the league 

 

The second best offense in total yards the pats have played is the giants and it’s not like they held the bills far below their season averages.   If they shut down the burrow/chase/higgins bengals I’d be a little more worried  but they got the Flacco/no chase/higgins out a half bengals 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[MasterStrategist]

Is Savage much of an outside corner?  Seems more safety/nickle or dime looks.

 

Just asking, to get hints on Benford availability.  My guess is Dane gets called up if Benford is leaning more toward being out.  

 

Likely need Spector called up, and maybe Fox if Bosa is on a pitch count.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

They have a better defense.  They can pressure the passer better, and cover WR's better. Though, they're not great against the run.

 

We have a better QB, RB, O-line and tight ends.  Their WR's are better.

 

Their roster is solid.  The most glaring difference (to me) is at QB.   Allen regularly wins games almost solely on his own.  Maye has obviously played well, but he isn't close to that level.

 

Diggs might be better than anything the Bills have currently, but he isn’t the same as he was two or three years ago. Other than that I don’t think NE has anything that special at WR. 

[juno999]

11 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Is Savage much of an outside corner?  Seems more safety/nickle or dime looks.

 

Just asking, to get hints on Benford availability.  My guess is Dane gets called up if Benford is leaning more toward being out.  

 

Likely need Spector called up, and maybe Fox if Bosa is on a pitch count.

Savage is a S and slot CB. I agree regarding Dane Jackson.  

[Einstein]

Super surprised the NFL kept this a 1pm game.

[balln]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Im curious in what area and what measure is New England better than Buffalo?  I’ll give them Davis and Gonzales.  The outside wrs for Buffalo are not the deciding factor in the outcome imo.  They are a less experienced, less explosive, lesser overall version of the Bills.  Buffalo has less than 1.5 turnovers they win by 3 touchdowns. 

Coaching is better. They just run a smoother game day operation. Use of TOs. Getting on refs / getting calls. Challenges. Game plan. 
 

And I’ll say even on the player talent side they’re fairly even. In some spots. The Bills players and coaches are just high variance. Sometimes you get really good play. Sometimes you get really bad play. Sometimes you get mediocre play. Whereas this season the pats playersare very consistent with low variance. 

[dakarider17]

Patriots are a below average rushing team. Pats defense is above average though, but not significantly better than the Bills have been. 
For this game I expect Patriots offense to look good in the first half, maybe score 17 or so.  I think Bills will do a much better job on Diggs than the first game though (be hard to do worse).  But the 2nd half I think the Bills defense will "get it" and Patriots will start to struggle.  Certainly a key will be the pass rush which was terrible last week for the most part.  The key for Bills offense is Cook has to have a decent game.  I expect some good play action with Allen under center and keep the Pats defense guessing.  And of course Josh Allen is going to have to step up again and compensate for his receivers inability to get open.  Bills 31-20
 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Super surprised the NFL kept this a 1pm game.

Would love to have it on SNF

[Taro Nimbus]

14 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Would love to have it on SNF

Seeing they already played a SNF game, they can’t do 2

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

37 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Super surprised the NFL kept this a 1pm game.

Theres a bunch of good 4pm window games and I think the cowboys are still a pretty big SNF draw somehow 😂

 

I think the networks can protect a certain amount of games not sure exactly how it works.  If the game goes to SNF or MNF it swaps networks 

 

as big as this game feels on paper it really isn’t very high stakes at this moment..  pats will probably still win the division with a loss and bills will probably still make the playoffs with a loss.  If this game was for the division lead I bet it woulda been flexed 

Edited 1 hour ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Im curious in what area and what measure is New England better than Buffalo?  I’ll give them Davis and Gonzales.  The outside wrs for Buffalo are not the deciding factor in the outcome imo.  They are a less experienced, less explosive, lesser overall version of the Bills.  Buffalo has less than 1.5 turnovers they win by 3 touchdowns. 

Well I’d say one way they’re measurably better is in win/loss record. 
 

But other than that, I know there are some strong advanced stats such as success rate and EPA that they’re very favorable in. 
 

However I tend to agree with your sentiment.