Bills Don't have Receiver Problem, they have a perception problem-- Jim Kubiak BN

[Coach Tuesday]

IF he's right, they could use another good RB or two to take the pressure off of Cook.  Right now,  Davis and Johnson are performing below replacement-level.

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

What defenses play worse when ahead?
What defenses have we seen stacking the box against Josh Allen?

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes should have proven to everyone that's ever watched football that you don't win championships in the modern era by throwing the ball all over the field. You do it by controlling the clock, taking what the defense gives you, not turning the ball over, having sound defense, and having the ability to make a couple big plays a game.

The whole reason that you want a "strong armed MVP" QB is not so you can throw a football over dem mountains 40 times a game, but so that you can have 100% confidence that for the 1-2 plays you need him to be superman, he will be. The rest of the game, he should be Clark Kent. 

A lot of those 20+ aren't what we typically think of as "deep balls" either.
There's a big difference between 44% and 50%

There's a big difference between completing the ball and completing the ball in way that enables YAC

We were at the bottom of the league in YAC for most of Josh's career.
 

 

I think you just missed my edit. I don't care about hitting 40-50 yard passes all game. If they hit even 1 or 2 per game that would be fine. Primarily though, the problem is in the intermediate area. 15-20 yards. They need to do way better in that area of the field. Throwing to Shakir behind the los 5 times a game isn't going to cut it. Josh is currently 20th in intended air yards.

Edited 8 hours ago by Scott7975

[Breakout Squad]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Every time I see someone make the point that we have enough and just need Allen to play differently.  
 

This seems to be their solution:

 

Some jack wagon called into WGR and said we should trade Allen to SF for Purdy because we’re a game managing offense. Not sure if was high or….

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I don’t disagree, but does Kelce make the catch Kincaid couldn’t?

 

I think we all know the answer to that. 
 

Get Allen legitimate weapons because we all know they haven’t shown they can build a Defense he can depend on when it matters. 
 

Why does Allen have to go up against an elite KC Defense in the Playoffs every year, with meh weapons.. while Mahomes gets to play our routinely decimated Defense that can’t stop anyone?

 

They don’t play each other… they play the others Defense.. and it’s beyond tiring watching Allen go toe to toe with Mahomes with lesser weapons, against a tougher, better coached playoff Defense … and always lose with this formula. 
 

Even when Mahomes went against our #1 top DVOA defense he shredded them.

[Wolfgang]

There is no getting around the fact that every receiver the Bills have is at best a slot receiver...

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I don’t disagree, but does Kelce make the catch Kincaid couldn’t?

 

I think we all know the answer to that. 
 

Get Allen legitimate weapons because we all know they haven’t shown they can build a Defense he can depend on when it matters. 
 

Why does Allen have to go up against an elite KC Defense in the Playoffs every year, with meh weapons.. while Mahomes gets to play our routinely decimated Defense that can’t stop anyone?

 

They don’t play each other… they play the others Defense.. and it’s beyond tiring watching Allen go toe to toe with Mahomes with lesser weapons, against a tougher, better coached playoff Defense … and always lose with this formula. 
 

Mark Andrews probably couldn't...

 

Kelce is a HOF tight end. The idea that the Bills should just "go get some HOF players" is insane. Instead of being grateful that we have one in JA (and he is a QB on top of that), all anybody does is complain that we "only" have one.

 

 

[vincec]

Bottom line is that Eric Moulds isn’t walking out the tunnel on Sunday. They need to find a way to generate big plays without a premium WR. Maybe scheme things up for Kincaid more? It’s tough.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

He points out that Allen's completion percentage is up from 2024 from 63.5% to 68%, and YPG up from 219 to 222.

 

I mean that's definitely being inflated by a 394 yard performance against Baltimore. In the other 6 games he's averaging 194 YPG. Last year before adding Cooper he averaged 193 YPG. After adding Cooper he averaged 257 YPG.

 

On one hand I agree with Jim Kubiak. We should pound the rock with James Cook. That is by far the best thing our offense does. But his headline is wrong - the reason we should pound the rock so much is because we have a WR problem. When he says "no WR can blow by a soft cushion" if he's talking about our WR room he's 100% correct. If he's talking about the entire NFL that's just wrong. There's this weird myth I keep seeing that offenses can't complete deep passes against cover 2 shells/soft zones. There are in fact holes in deep zones against those coverages but you need a WR group that can attack them.

 

So yeah keep feeding Cook. But we've seen a bunch of drives this year where that 1st down run only gets 1 yard and converting suddenly feels impossible. I remember when 3rd and 15 felt like easy money with Josh Allen. Now you have Joe Brady in this week's presser saying out loud that they need to stay out of 3rd and 7s because it's too big a hole to dig out of. With Allen's arm that's embarrassing. There's no reason our offense should have such a tiny margin for error. The historically mistake free offense we ran last year was never going to be sustainable.

 

Edited 8 hours ago by HappyDays

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Mark Andrews probably couldn't...

 

Kelce is a HOF tight end. The idea that the Bills should just "go get some HOF players" is insane. Instead of being grateful that we have one in JA (and he is a QB on top of that), all anybody does is complain that we "only" have one.

 

 

It’s a big reason we can’t beat KC when it matters, but alright. 
 

Mahomes, Kelce, Jones

 

Allen… 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

 

At the very least we can get him

a competent receiving core, no?

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by SCBills

[TheFunPolice]

Allen is eventually going to get frustrated with this setup 

 

Imagine having a top 2 QB in the league and building your offense around limiting his impact on the game 

Edited 8 hours ago by TheFunPolice

[Returntoglory]

Yeah, they’ve got the solid perception that they’re in desperate need of a true WR1.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Cooper opened things up last year after a similar slump just by being out there.  
 

Why do we need to act like a WR upgrade wouldn’t change much?

 

It would.. and will open things up enough to help Allen see more clearly what teams are doing.   Thus helping him to play better in structure.   We literally saw this happen last 

While the offense may have broke out to some degree when Cooper got added , it does not mean that is the cause.  The guy played 30-50% of snaps and 239 total snaps and had 20 receptions.  

[Billsfanatic8989]

44 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

And how successful would you say that formula has been for Cincy and Dallas? Who was the most important player for the Philly offense last year?

Well, Barkley was shut down in the SB. Chiefs dared Hurts to beat them. And he did. Of course, he had alot of weapons to throw too. If the Bills running game is shut down, there is no Brown or Smith to help the offense. 

[SCBills]

Just now, Matt_In_NH said:

While the offense may have broke out to some degree when Cooper got added , it does not mean that is the cause.  The guy played 30-50% of snaps and 239 total snaps and had 20 receptions.  

Exactly.  He didn’t provide much at all, but the little he did was all that was needed to lift us out of the doldrums. 
 

Imagine if we brought in someone who can actually produce. 

[DapperCam]

Here is the problem with this guy’s argument.

- What happens if you need to run the 2 minute drill? You can’t just pound the rock.

- By the same token, what happens if you need to run the 4 minute drill?

- What happens if a team is very good at stopping the run without stacking the box (see: New England).

- What happens if a team does stack the box and your WR can’t beat man coverage anyway?

- What happens if Cook gets dinged up? He’s getting more carries than he’s ever had in his college or pro career.

- What happens if your defense chokes and you are down 2 scores early and need to chase points?

 

You can’t survive in the NFL without a competent passing game. It’s a huge problem. We only had 2 completions to boundary WR in the Carolina game (or something like that, can’t remember the exact stat).

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Every time I see someone make the point that we have enough and just need Allen to play differently.  
 

This seems to be their solution:

 

Who the FOOK is that guy? *Conor MacGregor voice*

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/article_efc2cd6d-144e-48fd-91c2-2e1997a5017e.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share

 

Really interesting take.  He points out that the Bills have developed a much greater capacity to run the ball, which takes pressure off Allen.  Bills need to stick to formula to pound the football and not turn it over.  

 

On Allen and the receivers, several interesting points.  He points out that Allen's completion percentage is up from 2024 from 63.5% to 68%, and YPG up from 219 to 222. Biggest difference is he is taking more sacks and committing more turnovers.  As to receivers, defenses are playing soft man-to man coverage and giving receivers large cushions that no receiver can just blow by and go deep, but there is lots of underneath stuff there. He points to a third-and -1 where Allen throws to Coleman immediately for a first down as defender is over 5 yards off the Line giving Coleman big cushion.

 

He also points out Allen's footwork and accuracy sucked in the first half, and Trubisky is looking like a more competent backup.

 

Prognosis is that Bills/Allen still not playing great but certainly can if they stick to formula. Allen just needs to play a bit smarter, but the game against Carolina in second half was a good step forward from previous weeks.

 

Behind BN paywall.  

 

I'm OK with us sticking with a heavy rushing attack (if it's working), and taking underneath throws (if that's what the defense is giving us).

 

The problem is that we need to take advantage when teams start creeping towards the line of scrimmage, or playing single-high coverage.  And in those must-have situations (3rd and long), we need guys that can get open quickly without forcing the QB to scramble around and buy extra time.

 

In other words, I don't have a problem with the coaching staff's general philosophy.  I have a problem with our capability to execute when opponents shut-down our primary method of attack.  So yes.  We do have a WR problem.

 

[Matt_In_NH]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Exactly.  He didn’t provide much at all, but the little he did was all that was needed to lift us out of the doldrums. 
 

Imagine if we brought in someone who can actually produce. 

The offense is just terrible.  

[Kirby Jackson]

All this time I thought that the Bills receivers were bad. I didn’t realize that I had a perception problem. They aren’t actually bad. Okay good, I feel better now.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

This is a running team. They're using big packages and blowing people off the ball. They want to use play action off of that (which KC is dead last in defending). 

It's not a sexy offense. They are doing this to hopefully get teams OUT of the cover 2 shell. 

It's also the best way to win, given the lack of WR talent. As soon as Diggs left, this became a running team. 

I miss the days of Beasley, Brown, Diggs, Gabe....but they're trying to match their roster with a strategy that best suits them. 

Sunday we find out if it's enough to beat a very very good team.