Ravens at Chiefs - who do you want to have their third loss?

[djp14150]

The account south looks better...Colts are 3-0. Jacksonville should be 3-0 but a few plays cost them.  Houston should be better than their record.  Tennessee has a rookie QB but they could be better in the second half of the season.

 

KC after their bye its either division or afc south games, including Tennessee.

 

Baltimore finishes with 4 of final 6 being division pit and cin, and play gb and ne.

[YattaOkasan]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If the bills drop 3 other games that’ll mean that the Chiefs have to play: at Jags, Lions, Commanders, Colts, at Titans, at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Raiders (x2), & Broncos (x2) 10-2 in these game PLUS beat the Ravens and Bills to factor in the tiebreaker with a 13-4 Bills team. Lol, that’s not happening. 

Were using Chiefs > Ravens (your preference) as a starting point.  Then Im projecting forward a bit to our game against Chiefs.  If they also beat us they will be in fine position.  They have plenty of loseable games but if they beat us and BAL then I don't think ONLY 2 more losses against that schedule is much of a leap.  As mentioned above, I expect us to beat KC, but if we dont and they beat BAL (your preference) then its gonna be a close race for the 1 seed.  If BAL beats KC then our game against them has less importance.  Im all for making our road easier to the 1 seed easier.  Making a future result have less meaning is seemingly the easier path to the 1 seed (again aligned with you).  I agree with you that BAL is the better team and has easier path to the division win, but we will always have the tie breaker over them.  We dont know yet if we have the tiebreaker over KC.  I think our difference in opinion is you dont think KC has a chance to contend before the playoffs and I still see a path for them.  If you think they still might contend then give them the L cause we still have to play them.   

Edited September 23 by YattaOkasan

[Kirby Jackson]

20 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Were using Chiefs > Ravens (your preference) as a starting point.  Then Im projecting forward a bit to our game against Chiefs.  If they also beat us they will be in fine position.  They have plenty of loseable games but if they beat us and BAL then I don't think ONLY 2 more losses against that schedule is much of a leap.  As mentioned above.  I expect us to beat KC, but if we dont and they beat BAL (your preference) then its gonna be a close race for the 1 seed.  If BAL beats KC then our game against them has less importance.  Im all for making our road easier to the 1 seed easier.  Making a future result have less meaning is seemingly the easier path to the 1 seed.  I agree with you that BAL is the better team and has easier path to the division win, but we will always have the tie breaker over them.  We dont know yet if we have the tiebreaker over KC.  

That includes them beating us. The Chiefs are 1-2. If they beat the Ravens AND the Bills, that would be 3-2. That means they’d need to go 10-2 in the above mentioned games to go 13-4 and be tied with what would be a 13-4 Bills team. If you were to bet on them to go 10-2 in those other 12 games, you’d get more than +1000 in Vegas. Basically less than 10% chance.

The point you are missing is that KC pretty much can’t be 13-4 or better even with a win. The Bills are almost certainly going to be 13-4 or better regardless of a win or loss vs. KC. The Bills and KC pretty much can’t be tied and Baltimore is already functionally 3 games back. They are going to lose another game or 2 at least. If Baltimore wins this week they remain basically 3 games behind the Bills (assuming they beat the Chiefs). If Baltimore wins this week and finishes the rest of the schedule 11-2, they won’t be the 1 seed. They might be able to go 12-1 and not have the 1 seed!! They aren’t going to be 12-1. KC isn’t a threat to be 13-4 regardless of this weekend. Baltimore is but that still won’t be good enough. The Bills are going to be at least 13-4 and would have the tiebreaker over the Ravens.

Edited September 23 by Kirby Jackson

[Dr. K]

The answer is always the Chiefs. I don't care how sick they look right now, I won't believe they are dead until I see them buried at the crossroads with a stake through their heart. 

Edited September 23 by Dr. K

[chris heff]

1 hour ago, GolfandBills said:

Would be nice to see the chiefs get more losses before they get Worthy and Rice back.  I think once those two players come back they’ll get right back on track offensively 

Rice isn’t just coming back from a suspension, he was injured, he had surgery to repair torn LCL and hamstring. He is not just going to show up and change everything. Worthy? I still don’t get it, for most of last season he was a gadget player. Yes, he came on a bit at the end of last season, but correct me if I’m wrong (I’m sure someone will), but I think he caught like 4 long passes last season including playoffs. For a guy who’s supposed to stretch the field, that doesn’t seem like a lot. I’m going to keep repeating this, I don’t remember ever seeing a guy that gets tackled as easily as Worthy, if a defender gets a hand on him he goes down. If Worthy were on the Bills, there would be people calling him a bust.

Edited September 23 by chris heff

[billsfan89]

KC to me is one where I want them to have as big a deficit as possible. KC's roster is more flawed than the Ravens and I think they would have a hard time coming out of a hole. The Ravens are a talented team they just played a brutal schedule to start the season.  

[YattaOkasan]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That includes them beating us. The Chiefs are 1-2. If they beat the Ravens AND the Bills, that would be 3-2. That means they’d need to go 10-2 in the above mentioned games to go 13-4 and be tied with what would be a 13-4 Bills team. If you were to bet on them to go 10-2 in those other 12 games, you’d get more than +1000 in Vegas. Basically less than 10% chance.

The point you are missing is that KC pretty much can’t be 13-4 or better even with a win. The Bills are almost certainly going to be 13-4 or better regardless of a win or loss vs. KC. The Bills and KC pretty much can’t be tied and Baltimore is already functionally 3 games back. They are going to lose another game or 2 at least. If Baltimore wins this week they remain basically 3 games behind the Bills (assuming they beat the Chiefs). If Baltimore wins this week and finishes the rest of the schedule 11-2, they won’t be the 1 seed. They might be able to go 12-1 and not have the 1 seed!! They aren’t going to be 12-1. KC isn’t a threat to be 13-4 regardless of this weekend. Baltimore is but that still won’t be good enough. The Bills are going to be at least 13-4 and would have the tiebreaker over the Ravens.

They went 15-2 last year with very much the same team. I think it’s premature to say they CANT go on that type of run. They haven’t been blown out of any of these games. Yes they look weaker and I expect them to drop some games but I said that last year (don’t know about you).  That’s why I would like to stack another L on them 

[transient]

I prefer a Ravens loss for a couple of reasons. Chiefs have a tougher schedule, so there are more losses hiding in the weeds for them than there are for the Ravens. Also, Buffalo already beat the Ravens, so their desperation won't be a challenge to the Bills, whereas a 5-3 or 4-4 Chiefs team may be a tad less desperate when we play them than a potentially 3-5 Chiefs team if they were to lose to the Ravens.

 

At the end of the day, I won't be that upset with a Chiefs loss, though, either.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Doesn't matter. No matter who loses the Bills win.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

They went 15-2 last year with very much the same team. I think it’s premature to say they CANT go on that type of run. They haven’t been blown out of any of these games. Yes they look weaker and I expect them to drop some games but I said that last year (don’t know about you).  That’s why I would like to stack another L on them 

They were 11-0 in 1 score games!! They ALREADY have 2 losses. They can’t go on that kind of run. We are rooting against KC because a loss and they COULD be out of the playoffs. A win and they still aren’t a threat, at all, for the 1 seed. With the Lions win last night, and the Bills having the tiebreaker, Baltimore isn’t a threat to the 1 seed either. Neither team, regardless of the outcome, is a threat to the 1 seed. Baltimore is, likely, going to make the playoffs regardless of the outcome. KC probably drops to like a 20% chance at the playoffs with a loss.

[Fleezoid]

Chiefs. We already have the tiebreaker with the Ravens. Besides, while the Ravens have a great roster, they can't seem to finish games. The Chiefs know how to close out, or come from behind in games. Keep the Chiefs down, all day, everyday. 

[YattaOkasan]

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They were 11-0 in 1 score games!! They ALREADY have 2 losses. They can’t go on that kind of run. We are rooting against KC because a loss and they COULD be out of the playoffs. A win and they still aren’t a threat, at all, for the 1 seed. With the Lions win last night, and the Bills having the tiebreaker, Baltimore isn’t a threat to the 1 seed either. Neither team, regardless of the outcome, is a threat to the 1 seed. Baltimore is, likely, going to make the playoffs regardless of the outcome. KC probably drops to like a 20% chance at the playoffs with a loss.

Odds machine would be interesting data to support some of this.  Thanks for mentioning.  I think cause of the games left KC would have a better chance at 1 seed than BAL.  Ill see whats out there.  

 

Woah the one below is cool.  In a funny scenario I did Chiefs win and both BAL and KC missed the playoffs and we got the 1 seed.  Sign me up for that scenario.  Not sure why they cant update odds better (im not clicking simulate 100 times lol).

 

 

 https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor 

Edited September 23 by YattaOkasan

[NoSaint]

I’m all for those two playing each other in the wildcard round. I guess chiefs losing helps support that happening?

 

chargers with a solid 3 game lead in the division would feel like chiefs going on the road out of the gate in the playoffs.

Edited September 23 by NoSaint

[Jauronimo]

I would prefer to see the Ravens lose. I don't see many remaining Ls on their schedule.

 

Chiefs look shaky enough to drop a few WTF type games.

 

Its a long season.  I fully expect both of these teams to round into form.

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Odds machine would be interesting data to support some of this.  Thanks for mentioning.  I think cause of the games left KC would have a better chance at 1 seed than BAL.  Ill see whats out there.  

 

Woah the one below is cool.  In a funny scenario I did Chiefs win and both BAL and KC missed the playoffs and we got the 1 seed.  Sign me up for that scenario.  Not sure why they cant update odds better (im not clicking simulate 100 times lol).

 

 

 https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor 

I think that the Bills will be 14-3 or better. 13-4 is probably the worst that they can be if Josh stays healthy. Neither Baltimore nor KC is getting there (and Baltimore would already need to be a game ahead of the Bills). The Chargers are the only real threat to the 1 seed IMO. I dont expect them to remain at this level but still good. 
 

I saw something the other day that said, teams that start 1-3 make the playoffs 14% of the time in this format. I actually think, because of their division, Baltimore would still be at 50% or better. I think even if they go 1-3, they finish like 10-7. If KC loses, they probably finish anywhere from 8-9 to 10-7. 10-7 probably is the floor for a WC. They are a very flawed team. I’d just assume KC be out of the playoffs. Our game against them, strangely isn’t going to be that important. They’re fighting for a WC spot if they lose this week. 

Edited September 23 by Kirby Jackson

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

I would prefer to see the Ravens lose. I don't see many remaining Ls on their schedule.

 

Chiefs look shaky enough to drop a few WTF type games.

 

Its a long season.  I fully expect both of these teams to round into form.

 

I agree about the Ravens.  I think they are likely to round into form and become scary.

I feel like the Chiefs will get a little back on track but I do still seem them have their struggles.  No team is scared of the Chiefs anymore except the playoff Bills. 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I would prefer to see the Ravens lose. I don't see many remaining Ls on their schedule.

 

Chiefs look shaky enough to drop a few WTF type games.

 

Its a long season.  I fully expect both of these teams to round into form.

I think if the Ravens end up with 1 more loss they likely can’t get homefield from the Bills. 2 more and they almost certainly can’t. I guess it comes down to your opinion on where the Bills finish. I think 13-4 looks like the floor to me. I’m looking at everything through that lens. If the Bills go 14-3 it wont matter what either of these teams do. If they go 13-4 Baltimore would only be able to lose 1 more game. That’s not going to happen IMO. The Chiefs just aren’t good enough to be 13-4.

[Ga boy]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’m thinking the Ravens.  
 

Since we play KC, we can give them their 3rd (or more) loss and have the tiebreaker over both.

More Ravens losses the better.  Hope we don’t play them again.  They are the 2nd best NFL team.

[Bruffalo]

I think it depends on how legit you think the Chargers are.  

 

If you think the Chiefs are unlikely to win their division, I can understand hoping they win. 

 

Baltimore has shown over and over that they're a talented team but very sloppy. If you don't think they'll clean it up, you probably want Baltimore to win this game. 

 

I'm conflicted, but I lean Chiefs if there's a gun to my head.  To be clear, the only thing I'm actively rooting for is both teams to get diarrhea on the field and mass retire from embarrassment.   

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the Bills will be 14-3 or better. 13-4 is probably the worst that they can be if Josh stays healthy. Neither Baltimore nor KC is getting there (and Baltimore would already need to be a game ahead of the Bills). The Chargers are the only real threat to the 1 seed IMO. I dont expect them to remain at this level but still good. 
 

I saw something the other day that said, teams that start 1-3 make the playoffs 14% of the time in this format. I actually think, because of their division, Baltimore would still be at 50% or better. I think even if they go 1-3, they finish like 10-6. If KC loses, they probably finish anywhere from 8-9 to 10-7. 10-7 probably is the floor for a WC. They are a very flawed team. I’d just assume KC be out of the playoffs. Our game against them, strangely isn’t going to be that important. They’re fighting for a WC spot if they lose this week. 

Bolded is why im saying KC for the loss.  We dont know if that will be true for KC (could be the opposite and we end up needing to STAY a game ahead of KC).  Agree if KC loses this week they are fighting for a WC spot.  If KC win this week I think the division is still very much in play (and potentially the 1 seed cause they still get to play us).  To your point I agree that BAL probably wins that division (even if they lose this week) and understand why you want them to get another L to keep them out of the 1 seed.  KC is flawed but its not like they have looked inept.  I could still see them figuring it out on defense and doing just enough to run back last years formula.