Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[TurfToeJam]

It was frustrating that we didn't take advantage when Miami  lost their 2nd cb to injury.  Instead we ran the ball.  

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I think many of us think Miami is a very bad team though. Not the playoff fins we have at times battled but a true talent lacking squad that has active internal conflict on top of it. 
 

in a special season there will be a few of those that aren’t pretty but you take the win….  But that the gap on the field matched the forecasted gap on paper is what stands out. 
 

josh airmails a couple passes and nobody blinks about the long term because sometimes you just don’t hit everything. Josh stands patting the ball because he can’t find anyone open and that gives pause about the bigger story.

 

I get this if it becomes a trend.

But a division game early in the year on a short week is a breeding ground for unpredictability and inconsistency. 

I'm really hesitant to draw any sort of long-term conclusions from a matchup like this.

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

I think if they would throw the ball more they would score more points than they do. It’s annoying to an extent because it makes Allen look like he isn’t capable of getting more yards. 

 

Whereas I think more of our drives would stall out if we went more pass heavy. The personnel is built to run. An OL that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, the most explosive skill player is a RB, we have 3 TEs that can block including one who might already be the best blocking TE in the NFL. Cook breaking an explosive run has been the best indicator that the drive is going to end in a TD. I quibble a bit with Brady's persistent run calls but I can't really blame him. He's using the ingredients he has.

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

the obsession with wr's continues.

 

Its been almost two years of scoring 30 pts a game and winning like nearly every game and people still do not get it.

 

 

The other teams force Josh to nickel and dime them down the field. Unwilling to give up the long plays. It worked early in his career. Now Josh is so smart combined with good play calling the Bills are methodical. That has a great deal to do with the lack of explosive pass plays. But they average 30+ points a game. So that’s pretty good imho. 

[LEBills]

The receiver talent is just ok which we knew going into the season. That means Josh has to play well and methodically to move the ball- an easy-button long ball touchdown is just not going to be there a ton. 
 

Fortunately, James Cook has been awesome this year. So the combination of Josh’s methodical passing game and Cooks explosive running has been very good.

 

But it can feel like a slog until you realize we have 30+ points and a turnover lets us win by double digits.

 

I hope we can add some better receiver talent in the next few years to regain that downfield element, but this offense as a whole - methodical passing game and explosive running game - is enough to get a championship…though I will be nervous if we have to get by Baltimore again.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Whereas I think more of our drives would stall out if we went more pass heavy. The personnel is built to run. An OL that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, the most explosive skill player is a RB, we have 3 TEs that can block including one who might already be the best blocking TE in the NFL. Cook breaking an explosive run has been the best indicator that the drive is going to end in a TD. I quibble a bit with Brady's persistent run calls but I can't really blame him. He's using the ingredients he has.

The drives I see stalling are the ones that have a Cook first down run for no gain

 

Throwing the ball is just more efficient offense. It's a double shame we don't want to lean into it considering we have Allen

[QLBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, TurfToeJam said:

It was frustrating that we didn't take advantage when Miami  lost their 2nd cb to injury.  Instead we ran the ball.  

I’ll agree. Looked like Shavers had 27 out one on one. Shocked the Bills didn’t go right after him. Brady loves to run but sometimes a bit too much. Having said that he’s a darn good OC. 

[iccrewman112]

1 hour ago, stlbills13 said:

Playcalling wasn't quite as sharp tonight 

very little downfield which allowed the Miami defense to place closer to line of scrimmage and stop the run more effectively in the 2nd half

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Whereas I think more of our drives would stall out if we went more pass heavy. The personnel is built to run. An OL that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, the most explosive skill player is a RB, we have 3 TEs that can block including one who might already be the best blocking TE in the NFL. Cook breaking an explosive run has been the best indicator that the drive is going to end in a TD. I quibble a bit with Brady's persistent run calls but I can't really blame him. He's using the ingredients he has.

It feels like building a team like this requires a good defense. 
 

Doesnt need to be elite, since we have Josh Allen.. but it has to be good. 
 

And when it’s not, that’s when you notice Josh doesn’t have enough talent around him at WR.   It’s shown up in the playoffs plenty. 
 

If our Defense can step up in the postseason, we can win a Super Bowl like this.   
 

But if not, this Offense is not built (it seems so far) to go toe to toe with Mahomes having his way with a zero resistance Bills Defense.  

[Scott7975]

30 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I don't mean at all to downplay the improvements he's made; they have been significant and I respect the hell out of the work he's putting in.

But there is still fruit on the vine here.

 

 

Agree. He has had some bad drops too. I was just sayin.

[folz]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

we have Josh. The expectation should be best offense of the decade if we reasonably support him. That doesn’t need to be $50m+ for WR1/WR2 for us to have options that can run

 

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

28 pass attempts (plus the 4 Josh scrambles) for 213 yards is pretty mediocre, just saying 

 

Well, we did score the most points in the league last year (including playoffs) and are averaging 34 points per game this season thus far (over the last 4 seasons, the top scoring teams averaged 33.2, 29.9, 29.2, and 31.2 points per game, so I'd say 34 is pretty good). In fact, the Bills have scored the most points of any team since 2020 (5 seasons and 3 games---so that's more than half a decade so far). So... I'm just not quite sure what you guys are expecting. Does Josh need to go for 300 passing yards and 3 passing TDs every week regardless of if it is necessary or not?

 

If Josh has gaudy stats, then he's doing it all on his own, he has no help, there is no talent around Josh.

If Josh has a quiet day, because we are playing ball control against an inferior opponent, then Josh has no weapons who can get open, our talent sucks.

 

And yet we are winning games and consistently scoring over 30 points. Something doesn't add up.

 

I'd say the passing game is fine and they will use it when necessary (like the Detroit and Rams games last year or Baltimore week one this year). And I think Josh has plenty of weapons, a good offense around him. Our O-line is top 5, our RB room is top 5, our TE room is top 10 (inching up to top 5), and we have a solid receiving corps with a number of vets.

 

And if separation was a serious problem, wouldn't we be seeing more coverage sacks? There was one coverage sack today, maybe one last week (can't remember if it was coverage, or just a good defensive play). Yes, Josh avoids some of them by escaping the pocket, but he had pretty clean pockets last week and this week (didn't need to escape much). He had 85 combined rushing yards the last two weeks (most of that in the 2 bigs runs---one last week, one tonight). So, he's obviously hitting a lot of his targets on script.

 

It would be interesting for someone who looks at the All-22 film to truly assess whether the receivers are getting open or not. Sometimes I feel like it is just some talking point that has hung around for two years without being really accurate. It sure hasn't felt like the WRs have been stymied a lot this season. I've seen a lot of wide open Bills receivers running all over the field (does it matter if it is great scheming or great get off? if they are open, they are open). This is definitely more game-plan- and opponent-related than anything wrong with the receivers or passing game, imo.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not sure Brady is adept at scheming a downfield passing game.

But I certainly wouldn't label it a problem when the Bills are 3-0 while the offense is averaging 34 points a game and has yet to turn the ball over.  I think every OC in the NFL would be happy with those numbers.  

[Richard Noggin]

14 minutes ago, folz said:

 

 

Well, we did score the most points in the league last year (including playoffs) and are averaging 34 points per game this season thus far (over the last 4 seasons, the top scoring teams averaged 33.2, 29.9, 29.2, and 31.2 points per game, so I'd say 34 is pretty good). In fact, the Bills have scored the most points of any team since 2020 (5 seasons and 3 games---so that's more than half a decade so far). So... I'm just not quite sure what you guys are expecting. Does Josh need to go for 300 passing yards and 3 passing TDs every week regardless of if it is necessary or not?

 

If Josh has gaudy stats, then he's doing it all on his own, he has no help, there is no talent around Josh.

If Josh has a quiet day, because we are playing ball control against an inferior opponent, then Josh has no weapons who can get open, our talent sucks.

 

And yet we are winning games and consistently scoring over 30 points. Something doesn't add up.

 

I'd say the passing game is fine and they will use it when necessary (like the Detroit and Rams games last year or Baltimore week one this year). And I think Josh has plenty of weapons, a good offense around him. Our O-line is top 5, our RB room is top 5, our TE room is top 10 (inching up to top 5), and we have a solid receiving corps with a number of vets.

 

And if separation was a serious problem, wouldn't we be seeing more coverage sacks? There was one coverage sack today, maybe one last week (can't remember if it was coverage, or just a good defensive play). Yes, Josh avoids some of them by escaping the pocket, but he had pretty clean pockets last week and this week (didn't need to escape much). He had 85 combined rushing yards the last two weeks (most of that in the 2 bigs runs---one last week, one tonight). So, he's obviously hitting a lot of his targets on script.

 

It would be interesting for someone who looks at the All-22 film to truly assess whether the receivers are getting open or not. Sometimes I feel like it is just some talking point that has hung around for two years without being really accurate. It sure hasn't felt like the WRs have been stymied a lot this season. I've seen a lot of wide open Bills receivers running all over the field (does it matter if it is great scheming or great get off? if they are open, they are open). This is definitely more game-plan- and opponent-related than anything wrong with the receivers or passing game, imo.

 

 

 

While I don't think panic or anger (over the passing game) is warranted, I DO think an objective reviewer could acknowledge the team's consistent scoring success and STILL have concerns about the lack of verticality to the Bills passing attack. Right now, the Bills DOWNFIELD attack is actually handing off and throwing short to James Cook and letting him break it (or damned-near break it but get tripped up, as we saw several times tonight). 

 

The fact that the Dolphins sacked Allen twice, which seemed like "coverage sacks" (at least one of em), and the Bills sacked Tua exactly zero times, tells me our guys were better covered than their guys for the most part. Except over the middle, where I thought Allen and Co. could have feasted through the air on nearly every snap. Attack Tyrel Dodson and whoever else plays up the middle ON EVERY SNAP *****. It was there over and over. Bills offense should have put away the Dolphins in the 2nd quarter tonight. They had several chances to. When the Phins lost yet another CB, who else thought the Bills should have targeted that and been more aggressive tonight? 

[ticketssince61]

I think the TD to Kincaid was the only completion where the ball was thrown more than 10 yards downfield, and probably only 2 or 3 attempts past 10 yards (drop by Kincaid in endzone, pass interference on Keon on 1st drive, ???)

 

Granted, we are scoring points but to get to and win the Super Bowl we need to be able to have a downfield passing attack and stretch the field

[BananaB]

Dolphins D is terrible, that 31 points looked like a struggle because it seems like a plan to only throw short routes with the occasional intermediate one. Obviously it’s on tape and other teams pickup on it, just makes their job easier. Probably why our WRs look like they get no separation. 

Edited September 19 by BananaB

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

while part of the decision - when we needed a downfield play tonight it was not there 

 

against perhaps the weakest corners we will face 

But also a pretty good front four 

[folz]

45 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

While I don't think panic or anger (over the passing game) is warranted, I DO think an objective reviewer could acknowledge the team's consistent scoring success and STILL have concerns about the lack of verticality to the Bills passing attack. Right now, the Bills DOWNFIELD attack is actually handing off and throwing short to James Cook and letting him break it (or damned-near break it but get tripped up, as we saw several times tonight). 

 

The fact that the Dolphins sacked Allen twice, which seemed like "coverage sacks" (at least one of em), and the Bills sacked Tua exactly zero times, tells me our guys were better covered than their guys for the most part. Except over the middle, where I thought Allen and Co. could have feasted through the air on nearly every snap. Attack Tyrel Dodson and whoever else plays up the middle ON EVERY SNAP *****. It was there over and over. Bills offense should have put away the Dolphins in the 2nd quarter tonight. They had several chances to. When the Phins lost yet another CB, who else thought the Bills should have targeted that and been more aggressive tonight? 

 

I'll start with the last bolded statement first. Yes, I totally agree, when the Miami CB went out, the guy replacing him was out on an island to the left. I thought for sure that Brady and Allen would attack that corner with a pass, rather than run Jimbo for like 2 yards. Agreed...missed opportunity there. That whole sequence from the refs giving Hill the first down (and the Bills not challenging it), to the two really bad Bills red zone plays and then missed kick by Prater, and then the Dolphins next TD where it looked like Tre just conceded the TD, was all very strange and changed the game from a total blowout to a tight-ish game. Just weird. But again, I agree, the Bills should have put this game away in the second quarter. It was just a really strange series of events.

 

To the other bolded statement, yes, the Miami receivers are fast, and Tyreek is still a great player, so I wouldn't be surprised if their separation is better on a more consistent basis. But I don't think you can make the inference you did above regarding our D-line (sacks) or receivers (separation) tonight. Tua was getting the ball out of his hands in 3 seconds or less. The majority of his passes (it was 11 passes at one point, not sure if that was the final tally) were behind the line of scrimmage tonight (screens, etc). So, they had very few longer developing plays that would involve a pass rush or even needing to get separation.

 

And I think there are a few things going on with the vertical game. One, we are a much more overall efficient offense than we used to be, with a HC and OC that want a balanced attack. So, we run the ball a lot more than we used to (and throw to the backs out of the backfield). Our TEs have become a big part of our game, and though we have seen Kincaid get vertical (and Hawes too now), generally the TE game will not be that far downfield. And the league has changed since 2020-2021. Defenses learned to slow down pass-happy offenses like the Bills and Chiefs with cover zero, etc. Keep everything in front of you. That is how teams play the Bills now. So, we started taking the underneath stuff and just methodically marching down the field (kind of like the old New England offense---game plan to your opponent and take what the defense gives you without making any mistakes). Not as sexy, but effective. So, being opponent-specific, why would we want to throw a lot of deep balls against the Jets or the Dolphins? They are lower percentage plays with a higher percentage for a turnover. Our coaches knew we could out-muscle these teams and let them make the mistakes (which they did). We are a different team than we were in 2020-2022. We aren't pass first, pass often. We are balanced and disciplined.

 

I just think we need to be patient at this point. When they need to pass or if a defense say focuses on the run and leaves things open downfield, I'm sure the Bills will attack that. I just don't think we have run that many routes downfield yet because we haven't really needed to in these last two games. If we had been attempting a downfield game and we weren't being successful, then I might worry, we just haven't needed to do it much yet. Doesn't mean we can't, we just haven't needed to. I mean we all love seeing bombs down the field, but if they aren't really needed in a particular game, why chance them. I don't feel like I've seen Josh really trying to push the ball downfield a lot but not being able to (a few plays maybe). He's usually hitting something over the middle, at the sticks, or underneath.

 

Plus, we have seen Shakir and Coleman catch deep balls before. We know Coleman is good at 50/50 balls and high-pointing the ball. We have some speed: Samuel 4.31, Moore 4.35, Shakir 4.43. So, it basically comes down to some worry that we don't have speed on the outside (Coleman and Palmer), that true #1 X receiver once again. Maybe, but let's worry about that when we see it not working, not when we are choosing not to do it for obvious reasons. Coleman had that one drop tonight, but has anyone really been upset at how Coleman and Palmer have played thus far? In the Baltimore game, they combined for 13 receptions for 173 yards and a TD. Josh threw 7 passes in that game over 20 yards (26, 22, 51, 21, 29, 32, 25, plus the deep ball to Palmer that drew the pass interference call). And Josh has a ton of other weapons as well...he's hitting 9 different guys per game. I really don't think we have anything to worry about.

[Trogdor]

5 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

the obsession with wr's continues.

 

Its been almost two years of scoring 30 pts a game and winning like nearly every game and people still do not get it.

 

 

Let's see how that looks against playoff defense. It's cool to average high in the regular season, but they need the ability to have open guys in the playoffs. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, T.E. said:

That is not what you do when you have the best QB in football.

 

 

Tom Brady would disagree. And his teams won at a pretty high rate. You don't force the pass game just because you have a great QB.

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, T.E. said:

That is not what you do when you have the best QB in football.

If you include the playoffs, we have scored 30+ pts. On avg. for 41 games.  We don’t get it, or you don’t understand the strategy.  We’re scheming to our strengths, not obsessed with not having a Justin Jefferson type.  It’s not Madden.  You can’t have everything.

 

The beauty of having a Josh Allen is when we need to turn it on, well Josh will jump out of the phone booth and put on the cape with that beautiful S on his chest.  Now we finally have an explosive running game, and we are bullying our opponents with 13 personnel.  I love it, but make no mistake when we face the Chiefs, and Eagles as I’m not concerned about Cincy anymore without Burrow, but that cape will come on and you’ll get your wish.