An amazing TO stat for the Bills…

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, transient said:

Joe Brady probably has a lot to do with this, as well.

Agreed.  A more effective run game and stronger commitment to it is putting Josh in fewer situations to give the ball away.  Less passing plays and more manageable 2nd and 3rd downs means fewer chances for Josh to be more risky and turn the ball over.

[hondo in seattle]

Years ago, I read an article that showed that yards gained and yards allowed are somewhat consistent from year to year (especially if the same coaching staff stays in place).  But, the author argued, TOs are mostly a crap shoot - particularly fumbles but overall TOs as well.  If a team is among the league's leaders in TO differential, they can't count on repeating.  To say it another way, TOs are as much about luck as they are about skill according to the author.  

 

That doesn't seem to be true.  Not with the Bills.  

[eball]

15 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Years ago, I read an article that showed that yards gained and yards allowed are somewhat consistent from year to year (especially if the same coaching staff stays in place).  But, the author argued, TOs are mostly a crap shoot - particularly fumbles but overall TOs as well.  If a team is among the league's leaders in TO differential, they can't count on repeating.  To say it another way, TOs are as much about luck as they are about skill according to the author.  

 

That doesn't seem to be true.  Not with the Bills.  

 

I used to think that way (the article you're quoting), but clearly some teams are better at it than others, year after year.  There is a luck component but it's also coaching and preparation.

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

I know you’re not supposed to expect turnovers and it’s a major effect of a typical season. But there’s no denying the Bills have an unerring ability not just to cause turnovers but to avoid them. It’s not better coaching nor any particular aspect of play so it’s gonna end at some time. But it is most unusual!

I'm not sure if I believe the bolded portion of your comment "It's not better coaching nor any particular aspect".  That seems like a statement I'd expect out of the McD hater group, that it's all luck.

 

Here is a snippet from my FF mag on the D (Fantasy Football Index, ranked #4 for FF).  "Consistency is elusive at the position but the Buffalo Bills are a notable exception.  Since hiring Sean McDermott, they've ranked in the top 10 in takeaways eight years in a row.  They've averaged 29 takeaways (17 interceptions, 12 fumbles) over the past 5 years, nearly 2 more than anyone else". 

 

The second paragraph covers sacks and then goes into personnel changes and then says "it's a reliability worth investing in", referring to the coaching.   Some neutral observers are pretty much saying bet on the coaches to do it again.

 

As to avoiding turnovers, once again, I cannot see how any fan could not see the extreme change in scheme to decrease the offensive turnovers.  The change to Brady along with moving on from G Davis, to the coaching up and maturing of Josh and J Cook - there was a concerted effort to reduce turnovers.

[SoCal Deek]

The ball has bounced our way for sure over that span. I’ve lost track of the ‘almost’ interceptions and fumbles that have gone/bounced the Bills way. 

[Charles Romes]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, just as much a remarkable testament to the defense's excellent skills at creating turnovers. 

 

Just sayin'.

 

I mean, this defense has been amazingly consistent at producing turnovers at a high rate. Here's how the D has ranked at takeaways:

 

2024 1st

2023 3rd 

2022 4th

2021 3rd

2020 3rd

2019 10th

2018 8th

2017 9th

2016 23rd

2015 12th

 

I mean, there's a correlation there, when you look at head coach. Correlation and improvement.

 

 

 

 

without any “big play” defenders

[hondo in seattle]

22 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I'm not sure if I believe the bolded portion of your comment "It's not better coaching nor any particular aspect".  That seems like a statement I'd expect out of the McD hater group, that it's all luck.

 

Here is a snippet from my FF mag on the D (Fantasy Football Index, ranked #4 for FF).  "Consistency is elusive at the position but the Buffalo Bills are a notable exception.  Since hiring Sean McDermott, they've ranked in the top 10 in takeaways eight years in a row.  They've averaged 29 takeaways (17 interceptions, 12 fumbles) over the past 5 years, nearly 2 more than anyone else". 

 

The second paragraph covers sacks and then goes into personnel changes and then says "it's a reliability worth investing in", referring to the coaching.   Some neutral observers are pretty much saying bet on the coaches to do it again.

 

As to avoiding turnovers, once again, I cannot see how any fan could not see the extreme change in scheme to decrease the offensive turnovers.  The change to Brady along with moving on from G Davis, to the coaching up and maturing of Josh and J Cook - there was a concerted effort to reduce turnovers.

 

When I watch Brady's offense in action, I think he's good at scheming a run game (helped by the fact that opponents are more worried about defending Josh than our backs) but poor at scheming a downfield passing attack.  That second observation bothers me because we have a cannon-armed unicorn named Josh Allen.  

But when I pay attention to stats, I can't help but notice that our offense scores a lot of points and doesn't give the ball up very often.  That's not accidental.  That's by design.

 

On D, being in the top ten in takeaways for eight years in a row is not accidental either.  

[Buffalo Boy]

3 hours ago, ddaryl said:

TO...   at 1st I'm thinking Terell Owens

I always associated Allens  turnover situation to

 

1.) Experience. He use to fumble alot as well as toss INTs
2.) Forcing the ball to a #1 WR in Diggs. Always thought that was causing the Bills offense problems. Its also why I like our receiver situation today over having a true #1. Allen can scan the field and make things happen. No need to force it to a single WR cause they are designated and compensated to have these touches, which I feel keeps Allen from being the best he can be.

Brady at OC using Cook and co is also a huge help.

Someone else was harping on it but we also should be doing more play action with Cook cooking the way he is

[Charles Romes]

We’ve lost a total of one turnover (Allen’s pick v the pats at home) the last 12 games but don’t tell anyone. 

[Max Fischer]

Could this be due to Good Coaching?

 

(This can often be an inflammatory post)

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Allen is much better.  He has dramatically cut down his fumbles. And Davis is not running the wrong routes...lol

But dont discount luck too much. Allen has had two dropped INTs so far and the INT on the 2 pt conversion doesn't count in the stats. Cook fumble took a nice bounce.

 

Recovered fumbles and dropped interceptions are what even out over the long run... it's those things that are somewhat random.

 

Consistently taking the ball away over 8+ seasons and consistently protecting the ball over 2+ seasons are not random.

 

Regarding the 2 point conversion attempt interception, that's like a Hail Mary play... a desperation... unlike Geno Smith throwing the ball away on 4th down, Josh was trying to force a pass into the end zone.

 

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

The ball has bounced our way for sure over that span. I’ve lost track of the ‘almost’ interceptions and fumbles that have gone/bounced the Bills way. 

 

Same as above, see below regarding sample size... 

 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Um, just as much a remarkable testament to the defense's excellent skills at creating turnovers. 

 

Just sayin'. I mean, this defense has been amazingly consistent at producing turnovers at a high rate. Here's how the D has ranked at takeaways:

 

2024 1st

2023 3rd 

2022 4th

2021 3rd

2020 3rd

2019 10th

2018 8th

2017 9th

 

McDermott started in 2017 so I'm going to drop the two years previous. The mean average is 5.125... the median is 4.

 

2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Bills havent lost a fumble in last 17 games. 
 

A good part of that is luck, but it is also a tribute to McDermott and entire coaching staff. McD takes a lot of heat for things that don’t go well; he deserves some credit for things that do go well. 

 

Yes, the luck is a smaller component of this story.

 

The sample sizes (touches) are enough to carry statistical validity. In an average NFL game there are 120-150 plays.

 

These numbers are not outliers... they're the norm for a team which is obviously coached to protect the ball on offense and take the ball away on defense.

 

[TurfToeJam]

Admit I thought TO stood for time outs and was gonna be  another McDermott thread😆

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, eball said:

The last time the Bills lost the TO battle in a game, regular or postseason, was January 7, 2024, in the regular season finale at Miami.

 

Since then they have won the TO battle 19 times, tied it 5, and their overall TO margin is +33 (8-41).

 

This a remarkable testament to Allen’s growth and maturity, and probably includes a fair amount of good fortune, but the 24-game streak of not losing the TO battle is believed to be the longest in NFL history.

 

 

Even more remarkable is that no Bills position player has had a turnover in at least 21 games.

 

That also must be an NFL record. Bills taking ball security to a new level.

 

EDIT: Actually goes back even farther than that...the last TO by a position player was James Cook against KC in week 15 in 2023.

 

That's freaking absurd...so it's been 27 games since anyone outside of Josh Allen has had a Turnover.

Edited September 16 by Big Turk

[MDH]

I hate that this stat has been getting traction. 
 

Last year, before the Baltimore game, the stat that gained traction was that the Bills hadn’t been beaten by more than 1 score in 42  (regular season) games. A NFL record.

 

They then proceeded get trounced.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, MDH said:

I hate that this stat has been getting traction. 
 

Last year, before the Baltimore game, the stat that gained traction was that the Bills hadn’t been beaten by more than 1 score in 42  (regular season) games. A NFL record.

 

They then proceeded get trounced.

 

Hasn't happened since either. Once in 55 games or whatever it is still must be an NFL record

 

[CSBill]

I thought this was going to be a Terrell Owen’s thread. Bummer. 

[TheWeatherMan]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Yep, remember when the storyline on JA was that he was a turnover machine?

He was a turnover machine, he was an inaccurate passer, he was impulsive and made bad decisions.  Josh is the ultimate competitor and is humble enough to admit to and address his flaws which inevitably turned him into the best QB in the NFL.  I don’t think there has ever been a QB entering the NFL that’s has been able to correct their deficiencies to the level Josh has.  This guy is superhuman! 

[ticketssince61]

This better not have jinxed us!

[Gilberto]

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Am I the only one thought this was going to be a stat on Terrell Owens?

 

56 minutes ago, CSBill said:

I thought this was going to be a Terrell Owen’s thread. Bummer. 

So as to not disappoint: 

 

in 2009, while playing for Buffalo, T.O. had 55 receptions for 829 yards and 5 rec TDs, including Bills franchise record (tied) 98 yard TD at Jacksonville. Wahoo!

[The Jokeman]

Just now, Gilberto said:

 

So as to not disappoint: 

 

in 2009, while playing for Buffalo, T.O. had 55 receptions for 829 yards and 5 rec TDs, including Bills franchise record (tied) 98 yard TD at Jacksonville. Wahoo!