Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If they are doing that and actively tanking I kind of commend them. I'm not sure that is who Sean Peyton is. 

I wouldn't call it actively tanking. More having a long term vision. I do think Payton is arrogant enough to think he can win some games with a guy like Stidham. 

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If they are doing that and actively tanking I kind of commend them. I'm not sure that is who Sean Peyton is. 

Yeah, Parcells guys don't really tank. They take control of teams that have already tanked instead. If Denver goes 3-14, he's more likely to be fired than oversee a 2025 team with a great cap situation and multiple good draft picks -- especially if Russell Wilson has a decent, winning season in Pittsburgh.

Edited April 18 by dave mcbride

[34-78-83]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Good job but hopefully if he does trade down, McDermott will get more than a 3rd round pick.

28 for 36 and 78 is a realistic value match (I doubt they would get more).

 

@Alphadawg7 If we don't end up trading up for one of the top 4 WR's, I actually prefer this type of trade back to staying put at 28 for Beane.

[habes1280]

I like this.  I keep hearing that Thomas is a cut above the second tier receivers, but the closer we get to draft day, the less comfortable I am with moving up the order to draft him.  A trade-back like this, to the top of the second round, landing us at the top of the second surge of the receiver run, and in your scenario, recouping a pick in the third, would be perfect.  I'm not sure that Franklin would be my first choice of the remaining pass catchers, but I wouldn't scoff (especially with two more picks in the top-100).

[SoonerBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock.  I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well.  Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
3. New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
4. *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona):  Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
5. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
6. NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.  
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.  
9. Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is.  Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9.  With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.  
11. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts.  They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.  
12. Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington:  With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
13. Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board.  With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB.  With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
16. Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first.  Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
17. Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell).  But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.   They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.  
18. Bengals -  Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.  
19. LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams:  I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge.  I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.  
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.  
21. Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here.  But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.  
22. Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.  
23. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings):  Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM.  However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
25. Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.  
26. Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:  Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
27. *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona):  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.  
28. *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo):  JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye.  (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
29. Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas:  Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
30. Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.  
31. 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.  
32. Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.

 

NOTES:  I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin.  This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78.  And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.  

 

Surprises:  I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:

1. Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need.  Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
2. Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back.  I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
3. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.  

First, outstanding work, thank you. Second, I can absolutely see your scenario playing out.  Third, I like Polk alot, and wouldn't mind seeing him here.

[Bill from NYC]

22 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

28 for 36 and 78 is a realistic value match (I doubt they would get more).

 

Even if it is somewhat realistic, the Bills don't need to trade back. It would be nice to see us fleece another team rather than McDermott getting foolishly swindled yet again.

[34-78-83]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Even if it is somewhat realistic, the Bills don't need to trade back. It would be nice to see us fleece another team rather than McDermott getting foolishly swindled yet again.

dropping just 8 spots from 28 to 36 while picking up a 3rd is getting swindled? Sorry I don't understand... Now I get 3 total picks in the top 78 as opposed to 2, and again, only moved back 8 spots to get it.

 

All good though, love ya Bill!

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

28 for 36 and 78 is a realistic value match (I doubt they would get more).

 

@Alphadawg7 If we don't end up trading up for one of the top 4 WR's, I actually prefer this type of trade back to staying put at 28 for Beane.

Yeah I like it too, although Mitchell being there would be interesting decision.  I’d probably lean 60-40 on taking Mitchell just because you have no assurances Franklin makes it to us.  While I do have Franklin reaching us, there are definitely spots he could go before our pick.  And if I had to choose between Mitchell and Franklin straight up, I would lean a little more Mitchell even though I do like Franklin as well.  
 

But the lure of adding a 3rd, which IMHO has some great value this year in the 3rd at a number of positions we could use help at won me over in this mock.  
 

Im actually kind of chopping at the bit already to do a v2.0 and explore another scenario at the top in which I think is very plausible that might shift how the draft falls and see what that looks like for Buffalo.  
 

Also, maybe I’m bias, but Jags signing Gave Davis doesn’t feel like enough with just Kirk and Zay if they want to see what to do with Lawerence long term.  Which is why I have them rebuffing Buffalo for a trade for BTJ.  But, if Jags feel differently, it’s a realistic spot for Bills to go get BTJ if he is there.  
 

My biggest issue with mocking is moving up for Thomas is that I’m not seeing a lot of connection to him for us, but at least they did meet with him once that is reportedly known.  But there are other guys who will be there at 28 and 2nd round that we have reportedly met with multiple times each.  
 

You can never over read into things ahead of a draft, but they do seem to be doing a lot more due diligence as if they they intend to let the draft come to them more than make a big trade up.  For example, of the big 4, we have only reportedly met with Thomas the one time.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Even if it is somewhat realistic, the Bills don't need to trade back. It would be nice to see us fleece another team rather than McDermott getting foolishly swindled yet again.

 

I agree we don't need to trade back but there is nothing wrong with the value of that trade. It is what the value looks like.

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yeah I like it too, although Mitchell being there would be interesting decision.  I’d probably lean 60-40 on taking Mitchell just because you have no assurances Franklin makes it to us.  While I do have Franklin reaching us, there are definitely spots he could go before our pick.  And if I had to choose between Mitchell and Franklin straight up, I would lean a little more Mitchell even though I do like Franklin as well.  
 

But the lure of adding a 3rd, which IMHO has some great value this year in the 3rd at a number of positions we could use help at won me over in this mock.  
 

Im actually kind of chopping at the bit already to do a v2.0 and explore another scenario at the top in which I think is very plausible that might shift how the draft falls and see what that looks like for Buffalo.  
 

Also, maybe I’m bias, but Jags signing Gave Davis doesn’t feel like enough with just Kirk and Zay if they want to see what to do with Lawerence long term.  Which is why I have them rebuffing Buffalo for a trade for BTJ.  But, if Jags feel differently, it’s a realistic spot for Bills to go get BTJ if he is there.  
 

My biggest issue with mocking is moving up for Thomas is that I’m not seeing a lot of connection to him for us, but at least they did meet with him once that is reportedly known.  But there are other guys who will be there at 28 and 2nd round that we have reportedly met with multiple times each.  
 

You can never over read into things ahead of a draft, but they do seem to be doing a lot more due diligence as if they they intend to let the draft come to them more than make a big trade up.  For example, of the big 4, we have only reportedly met with Thomas the one time.

Recall as well that many of the recent Bills picks did NOT have many visits with the team. I think its starting to get over-used as a predictor. Certainly it reflects interest, but how much beyond that is unclear.

 

I agree on the Jacksonville concern.

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

First, outstanding work, thank you. Second, I can absolutely see your scenario playing out.  Third, I like Polk alot, and wouldn't mind seeing him here.

Thanks bud, and yeah I do like Polk myself too, think he has a high floor and will contribute early as a rookie for someone.  
 

And to just set the record straight on why I have Polk sneaking in at the end of the round…while I am personally high on him, I didn’t just plug him in there out of the blue.  
 

First, Ravens have met with him and had him in for a 30 visit.  He style makes so much sense for their team and needs too and good chance he isn’t there in the 2nd.  Also, I’ve been hearing Polks name a lot as a guy to watch end of the first with not only Ravens, but also KC with the Rice drama now ongoing.  
 

In this mock, both the Chiefs had traded up and Polk was off the board to Balt before KC would have been on the clock at end of round.  But if neither of those two things happen, I think Polk is potentially in play for KC at end of round and may come down to what CBs or OL prospects are still on the board.

 

Of course, if he doesn’t I still think he goes somewhere in the 2nd, but he is one of those guys who can really go anywhere in the 2nd, so sneaking into the end of the first didn’t feel like too much of a stretch.  And every year guys go earlier and later than expected, so this felt within reason for him.

 

 

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Bill from NYC]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree we don't need to trade back but there is nothing wrong with the value of that trade. It is what the value looks like.

I know that it looks fine on one of those trade value charts but, I would not make the deal unless we could fleece a team that really needs the pick. There must be one sucker out there like Doug Whaley who would happily overpay.  

[Alphadawg7]

45 minutes ago, habes1280 said:

I like this.  I keep hearing that Thomas is a cut above the second tier receivers, but the closer we get to draft day, the less comfortable I am with moving up the order to draft him.  A trade-back like this, to the top of the second round, landing us at the top of the second surge of the receiver run, and in your scenario, recouping a pick in the third, would be perfect.  I'm not sure that Franklin would be my first choice of the remaining pass catchers, but I wouldn't scoff (especially with two more picks in the top-100).

 

I went Franklin because I think there is some substance to all the Franklin buzz surrounding the Bills.  They have met with him a lot too.  I know you can’t take everything too seriously leading up to a draft, but everything about their interest makes sense.  
 

At 28, I think I would have leaned Mitchell rather than trade back to just be sure we got our guy and I have Mitchell graded a little higher than Franklin, although I do like Franklin too.  But I tried to do the mock as the GM of each team on what I thought made the most sense to what they might really do, and if they want Franklin then while they could just take him at 28, I think a small trade back is the play for them.  Even if they miss on Franklin being there, McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc are still on board, so one likely reaches us.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I went Franklin because I think there is some substance to all the Franklin buzz surrounding the Bills.  They have met with him a lot too.  I know you can’t take everything too seriously leading up to a draft, but everything about their interest makes sense.  
 

At 28, I think I would have leaned Mitchell rather than trade back to just be sure we got our guy and I have Mitchell graded a little higher than Franklin, although I do like Franklin too.  But I tried to do the mock as the GM of each team on what I thought made the most sense to what they might really do, and if they want Franklin then while they could just take him at 28, I think a small trade back is the play for them.  Even if they miss on Franklin being there, McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc are still on board, so one likely reaches us.

A question for you: who is most similar to Jordan Addison, who the Bills LOVED and who also proved this past season that he was worth the love? Whoever is closest to that and is within reason (i.e., not Nabers) is who I'd be betting on. It seems Franklin might be that guy.

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A question for you: who is most similar to Jordan Addison, who the Bills LOVED and who also proved this past season that he was worth the love? Whoever is closest to that and is within reason (i.e., not Nabers) is who I'd be betting on. It seems Franklin might be that guy.

I know you asked @Alphadawg7, who also had great info about Addison/Bills link LY.

 

I agree Franklin's comp is Addison/Tank Dell, but more Addison.  I think Franklin (and Worthy for that matter, who I like even more) needs to add 5-10 lbs of muscle to his frame, which is definitely doable.

 

Franklin fits as a strong #2 option, which is what we need.  Kincaid/Samuel/Shakir/Franklin would be a very good group.  However, if Worthy would be there at 28, I think he's the pick.

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A question for you: who is most similar to Jordan Addison, who the Bills LOVED and who also proved this past season that he was worth the love? Whoever is closest to that and is within reason (i.e., not Nabers) is who I'd be betting on. It seems Franklin might be that guy.

 

Nabers yes, an elite version of Addison.  But outside of him, the guys that I would list are Troy Franklin and Jalen McMillan of the Huskies, who is also someone they have had in for a visit.  Of the 2 though, Troy has more WR1 potential where I think McMillan is going to be that more Addison role opposite a WR1 who has the potential to be a very good player for someone.  

 

In fact, I think all 3 Husky WR's in Odunze, Polk, and McMillan are very good prospects...Odunze elite top 15, Polk late first to 2nd, and McMillan back half of 2nd to 3rd is probably the ranges we see them come off the board.  

 

Another one I would keep an eye on is McConkey.  He isn't getting much Bills buzz because for some reason its not even showing we have visited with him on most sites.  However, McConkey himself directed stated he has met like 3 times with the Bills, so I do think there is legit interest in him too.  He really fits what I think the Bills want out of a WR as he probably has the highest floor in the draft outside the big 3 and is one of the most consistent and reliable WR's this year.  

 

But if I was laying odds of all the WR's in the draft on the chances they become the first WR we take, I right now would give the best odds to Franklin and then from there I would go next McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, Walker, Legette, Thomas.  I wouldn't have any of the big 3 above them, the Bills have literally no reported or accounted for meetings with any of the big 3.  Just 1 reported meeting with Thomas.  I am not 100% positive, but I don't think the Bills have ever taken a player round 1 they havent met with.  

 

Keep an eye out for Tez Walker, especially if we go someone like McConkey early.  They have met with Walker as much as they have met with Franklin.  If we don't go WR at 28, my guess is Walker is our pick at 60.  Or if we trade back and take a WR and pick up a 3rd, it wouldn't surprise me if we took Walker in the 3rd if he was still there or to see them maybe even move up using some later round picks to get him.  

 

I do not think Walker is in play in earlier than that where they would go someone like Mitchell, Franklin or McConkey for example.  But I definitely think he is very much in play if we pass on a WR with our first pick and we miss on some of those guys I just mentioned.  

[Alphadawg7]

38 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I know you asked @Alphadawg7, who also had great info about Addison/Bills link LY.

 

I agree Franklin's comp is Addison/Tank Dell, but more Addison.  I think Franklin (and Worthy for that matter, who I like even more) needs to add 5-10 lbs of muscle to his frame, which is definitely doable.

 

Franklin fits as a strong #2 option, which is what we need.  Kincaid/Samuel/Shakir/Franklin would be a very good group.  However, if Worthy would be there at 28, I think he's the pick.

 

I don't think Worthy will be there at 28, and honestly I initially did not think we would have interest in him with how incredibe thin his frame is.  Especially with how we like to see our WR's block but also with how bad our weather gets late in the season and playoffs, I thought they would prefer someone who is more physical where there is a premium on that when weather evens the playing field some with speed.

 

But, given the strong interest in Franklin and the fact they have met with Worthy I believe twice, its not as unlikely as I thought because Troy has a light frame too, albeit not as light as Worthy.  So I think my initial thought earlier in the offseason regarding Worthy and Bills interest were premature and off given the amount of times they have met with these two guys they don't seem to be too worried about frame.  

 

I still think Worthy is more of a WR2 in the NFL, I am just not convinced with his slender frame he can consistently get off the line clean or have his body handle the physicality of a 17 game and playoff long season.  But that being said, that elite speed and Allen is a very exciting combo, so it would still be exciting addition.  

[billsfan89]

Solid mock very sensible. Always hard to do a mock because there’s 32 different teams with 32 different boards so it’s just guess work. 
 

But your mock makes sense. I do think that if the Bills were to trade down it would be ideal. In this scenario the Bills at pick 36 would still have a ton of quality options available to them at WR. Franklin, Legette and McConkey are still on the board and there’s only 3 picks ahead of them and I doubt all 3 teams take WR’s and even in that unlikely scenario there’s still other players they can pivot to. 
 

I also do think the Bills likely would have to toss back pick 204 in that trade which I am fine with. Picks 28 and 204 for picks 36 and 78 seems like a good deal for both sides.

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think Worthy will be there at 28, and honestly I initially did not think we would have interest in him with how incredibe thin his frame is.  Especially with how we like to see our WR's block but also with how bad our weather gets late in the season and playoffs, I thought they would prefer someone who is more physical where there is a premium on that when weather evens the playing field some with speed.

 

But, given the strong interest in Franklin and the fact they have met with Worthy I believe twice, its not as unlikely as I thought because Troy has a light frame too, albeit not as light as Worthy.  So I think my initial thought earlier in the offseason regarding Worthy and Bills interest were premature and off given the amount of times they have met with these two guys they don't seem to be too worried about frame.  

 

I still think Worthy is more of a WR2 in the NFL, I am just not convinced with his slender frame he can consistently get off the line clean or have his body handle the physicality of a 17 game and playoff long season.  But that being said, that elite speed and Allen is a very exciting combo, so it would still be exciting addition.  

Fair points, always appreciate you opinion man.

 

I'm higher on Worthy than most.  I see ALOT of Zay Flowers in his game, who I liked more than Jordan LY.  Also see some Jordan/bit of Tyreek.  But again mostly Zay, and think he'll have just as much impact/success in our offense as Zay did for the Ravens.

 

Other than top 3 (and I'd take BTJ obviously over Worthy), Xavier has the best "suddenness" in his routes.  He's just not a deep threat, but can break off the routes inside/outside/curls (stem tree) the best.  He's not breaking a ton of tackles, but if he gets a block and makes the 1st man miss, he's an instant homerun threat on bubble screens/short routes too.  

 

I'm thinking there's a 35% chance he makes it to us (simple math: 70% chance Miami passes on him for OT and 50% Dallas passes on him for OL help).  Franklin is my #2 option.  Then a very slight drop off to Ladd, Polk, Mitchell in that order.  After that, I have a bunch of WRs lumped together: Wilson, Legette, Coleman, Tez

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nabers yes, an elite version of Addison.  But outside of him, the guys that I would list are Troy Franklin and Jalen McMillan of the Huskies, who is also someone they have had in for a visit.  Of the 2 though, Troy has more WR1 potential where I think McMillan is going to be that more Addison role opposite a WR1 who has the potential to be a very good player for someone.  

 

In fact, I think all 3 Husky WR's in Odunze, Polk, and McMillan are very good prospects...Odunze elite top 15, Polk late first to 2nd, and McMillan back half of 2nd to 3rd is probably the ranges we see them come off the board.  

 

Another one I would keep an eye on is McConkey.  He isn't getting much Bills buzz because for some reason its not even showing we have visited with him on most sites.  However, McConkey himself directed stated he has met like 3 times with the Bills, so I do think there is legit interest in him too.  He really fits what I think the Bills want out of a WR as he probably has the highest floor in the draft outside the big 3 and is one of the most consistent and reliable WR's this year.  

 

But if I was laying odds of all the WR's in the draft on the chances they become the first WR we take, I right now would give the best odds to Franklin and then from there I would go next McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, Walker, Legette, Thomas.  I wouldn't have any of the big 3 above them, the Bills have literally no reported or accounted for meetings with any of the big 3.  Just 1 reported meeting with Thomas.  I am not 100% positive, but I don't think the Bills have ever taken a player round 1 they havent met with.  

 

Keep an eye out for Tez Walker, especially if we go someone like McConkey early.  They have met with Walker as much as they have met with Franklin.  If we don't go WR at 28, my guess is Walker is our pick at 60.  Or if we trade back and take a WR and pick up a 3rd, it wouldn't surprise me if we took Walker in the 3rd if he was still there or to see them maybe even move up using some later round picks to get him.  

 

I do not think Walker is in play in earlier than that where they would go someone like Mitchell, Franklin or McConkey for example.  But I definitely think he is very much in play if we pass on a WR with our first pick and we miss on some of those guys I just mentioned.  

 

I'd say Nabers 1. Ladd 2. I think Franklin is similar frame wise but not so much play style. 

 

I don't think Ladd has quite the variety that Addison has. But I think he is the closest after Nabers who is Addison on speed.

[billsfan89]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).

 

Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR. 

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. 
 

I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. 
 

So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.

 

I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. 
 

I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. 
 

So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.

 

I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

 

I think they like tolbert more than most people.  However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.  

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think they like tolbert more than most people.  However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.  

Getting more punch and speed at WR is a need for Dallas. Lamb is just 25 but the cupboard is bare after him. Cooks is an aging supplemental player while the rest of the players behind them are not very inspiring. For both short and long term considerations they probably need to invest a major pick into that position 

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Fair points, always appreciate you opinion man.

 

I'm higher on Worthy than most.  I see ALOT of Zay Flowers in his game, who I liked more than Jordan LY.  Also see some Jordan/bit of Tyreek.  But again mostly Zay, and think he'll have just as much impact/success in our offense as Zay did for the Ravens.

 

Other than top 3 (and I'd take BTJ obviously over Worthy), Xavier has the best "suddenness" in his routes.  He's just not a deep threat, but can break off the routes inside/outside/curls (stem tree) the best.  He's not breaking a ton of tackles, but if he gets a block and makes the 1st man miss, he's an instant homerun threat on bubble screens/short routes too.  

 

I'm thinking there's a 35% chance he makes it to us (simple math: 70% chance Miami passes on him for OT and 50% Dallas passes on him for OL help).  Franklin is my #2 option.  Then a very slight drop off to Ladd, Polk, Mitchell in that order.  After that, I have a bunch of WRs lumped together: Wilson, Legette, Coleman, Tez

 

IMHO I think the new KO rule moved Worthy up the Bills board personally.  This new KO rule is bringing kick returns back and its going to come with the highest percentage of KO returns for TD's in the history of the league IMHO.  So having a Worthy back there with his speed where even the slightest crease and its to the house is going to add to his value.  Not saying we are investing an early pick just on a KR guy, but the bonus value of what he can bring there I think increases his value to a team.  

 

Worthy excelled in Punt returns in college, but didn't spend much time a kick returner.  However the new rules will make the transition easy, and he was a weapon in Punt returns.  

[Aussie Joe]

4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Even if it is somewhat realistic, the Bills don't need to trade back. It would be nice to see us fleece another team rather than McDermott getting foolishly swindled yet again.

You hoping for Cooper Dejean this year ?

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

I appreciate the effort/thoughts.  But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin.

 

In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does.  A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic.  Big time rebuild if this is the thought.  I hope that's not the plan.

 

This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1.  Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore.  Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I appreciate the effort/thoughts.  But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin.

 

In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does.  A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic.  Big time rebuild if this is the thought.  I hope that's not the plan.

 

This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1.  Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore.  Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

 

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today.  One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR.  He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player.  Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs.  

 

So I think you can scratch off any kind of trade for an established WR.  I do like McConkey too, and I believe the Bills do as well since McConkey stated publicly he has met with them like 3 times now.  But I went Franklin for 2 reasons...I don't think McConkey reaches us on that trade down and I do think there is substance to the Bills being high on Franklin.  

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today.  One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR.  He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player.  Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs.  

 

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period.  Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize.  He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good.

 

As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent.  It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period.  Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize.  He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good.

 

As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent.  It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.  

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.  

I remember Beane saying not to expect any big moves in FA and then we got someone, don't remember who maybe Von or Floyd.  No one remembers what he said about it because no one cared.

 

I don't see how you think Beane is echoing what he has always said and done.  He changes.  Remember when he said he doesn't believe in rebuilding?  Well, what's it going to be Beane - a rebuild or are you going to get a WR1?

 

Beane is trying to set expectations low.  I don't for a minute believe this is what he wants, and also don't believe this is what we will end up with.

[Alphadawg7]

https://bleacherreport.com/post/sports-betting/913586c7-723c-4be5-b20a-abdda04c4112
 

Jayden going 2nd odds decrease and Mayes increase.

 

Like I’ve been saying, I’m hearing Maye is getting momentum in Washington

[Alphadawg7]

Funny...I am already working on a v2.0 and changes at the top are starting to reveal a path that would push Odunze down the board and I am not sure how I feel about it.  

 

A popular place for him is either at 9 to the Bears, or the Bears trade back given they only have 4 draft picks.  But those 4 picks are 2 first rounders, a 3rd and a 4th...so they have a ton of draft cap value even with 4 picks, so I am not so sure they feel they must trade back either rather than add an elite prospect here.  

 

And if they go ahead and make their pick, Odunze feels like a luxury pick given they have DJ Moore.  They can find a potential WR2 to replace Allen maybe in round 3 or 4 with the draft being deep.  So I have this feeling that they might look at filling an expensive spot by adding a premier pass rushing prospect here.

 

So lets say that happens...I still think Jets take Bowers, not Odunze given they already have Wilson and Bowers is the ultimate mismatch.  

 

Vikings are up now at 11...they won't take him...if they don't go QB (JJ McCarthy already off the board in this mock having missed out on trading up) they likely do something like take the top Corner there.  

 

Now we are at 12...Broncos...sure, they could take him here.  But would they instead take a QB like Bo Nix here they reportedly like instead?  QB is more important than a WR and there is a deep WR draft.  Maybe they trade back...but with who?  Saw someone posting Colts might move up for Nabers...but would they for Odunze?  Lets say they go Nix...

 

Now its 13 and Raiders are up...they could take Odunze here as an heir to Adams, and that would make sense.  They still could go Penix here or take one of the premier OL guys on the board still...or even trade back.  

 

I don't know...my gut makes me think Odunze can't get this far down...but if he gets past Chicago, there is a path where he could fall into the teens.  If that happens, I am wondering what Beane starts thinking.  

 

Anyways...just more of my thoughts out loud here as I work on v2.0 which does have some changes based on new things I am hearing and seeing.

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Funny...I am already working on a v2.0 and changes at the top are starting to reveal a path that would push Odunze down the board and I am not sure how I feel about it.  

 

A popular place for him is either at 9 to the Bears, or the Bears trade back given they only have 4 draft picks.  But those 4 picks are 2 first rounders, a 3rd and a 4th...so they have a ton of draft cap value even with 4 picks, so I am not so sure they feel they must trade back either rather than add an elite prospect here.  

 

And if they go ahead and make their pick, Odunze feels like a luxury pick given they have DJ Moore.  They can find a potential WR2 to replace Allen maybe in round 3 or 4 with the draft being deep.  So I have this feeling that they might look at filling an expensive spot by adding a premier pass rushing prospect here.

 

So lets say that happens...I still think Jets take Bowers, not Odunze given they already have Wilson and Bowers is the ultimate mismatch.  

 

Vikings are up now at 11...they won't take him...if they don't go QB (JJ McCarthy already off the board in this mock having missed out on trading up) they likely do something like take the top Corner there.  

 

Now we are at 12...Broncos...sure, they could take him here.  But would they instead take a QB like Bo Nix here they reportedly like instead?  QB is more important than a WR and there is a deep WR draft.  Maybe they trade back...but with who?  Saw someone posting Colts might move up for Nabers...but would they for Odunze?  Lets say they go Nix...

 

Now its 13 and Raiders are up...they could take Odunze here as an heir to Adams, and that would make sense.  They still could go Penix here or take one of the premier OL guys on the board still...or even trade back.  

 

I don't know...my gut makes me think Odunze can't get this far down...but if he gets past Chicago, there is a path where he could fall into the teens.  If that happens, I am wondering what Beane starts thinking.  

 

Anyways...just more of my thoughts out loud here as I work on v2.0 which does have some changes based on new things I am hearing and seeing.

 

I think your looking into it too much. Odunze is a top 6 player in the draft. If he somehow slips by the Bears at 9 someone is going to take him just because he's by far the best player on the board. If that happens someone is coming up the board to get him.

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I think your looking into it too much. Odunze is a top 6 player in the draft. If he somehow slips by the Bears at 9 someone is going to take him just because he's by far the best player on the board. If that happens someone is coming up the board to get him.

 

I don't disagree...which is why I was having a hard time with how it was falling...its still a work in progress

 

[GunnerBill]

Odunze won't get past #9. Not. A. Chance. If he is there the Bears either take him or take a bounty to move back so someone else can. If Chicago does not get an offer they like enough they will just pick Odunze.

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/19/2024 at 3:16 PM, GunnerBill said:

Odunze won't get past #9. Not. A. Chance. If he is there the Bears either take him or take a bounty to move back so someone else can. If Chicago does not get an offer they like enough they will just pick Odunze.

I don’t disagree that what you say makes sense…and it’s what I think too.  Although I wouldn’t say not a chance…all it takes is Bears to go OL or DL, and there is a lot of talk about them addressing OL after Caleb has made some social comments about importance of the OL.  There are some elite talents on the OL in the same spot.  

[BADOLBILZ]

On 4/17/2024 at 10:12 PM, dave mcbride said:

Since Daboll starred running the show, the Bills have been a “windows” offense with regard to the passing game. The last thing they want is the next N’Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, or late-career DeVonte Parker — contested catch guys that can’t separate. When they signed Emmanuel Sanders, he was coming off two seasons in a row where, he, along with Diggs, achieved the best separation rates in the league. In fact, the Bills really wanted to add Sanders in 2020 via trade, but it was not meant to be. Anyway, that trait is what Allen thrives on and what the Bills prioritize. Also, let’s face it — it’s a little bit harder to come down with contested catches in the worst-weather stadium in the league where the QB is the highest-velocity thrower in league history.

 

 

You'd hope that the playoffs would have taught the Bills their lesson in this regard though.   Get-open little guys are great in the regular season when the refs are calling penalties for interference/holding in the secondary........but you want physical WR's in January/February.   Gotta' find a medium.   It exists.   Harry and Benjamin weren't really athletic enough.   Parker had the tools but not the desire and injuries probably sapped him of his juice.   Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf are giant sized WR's who have produced in the regular season and whose games have translated to even more success in the playoffs.

[dave mcbride]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You'd hope that the playoffs would have taught the Bills their lesson in this regard though.   Get-open little guys are great in the regular season when the refs are calling penalties for interference/holding in the secondary........but you want physical WR's in January/February.   Gotta' find a medium.   It exists.   Harry and Benjamin weren't really athletic enough.   Parker had the tools but not the desire and injuries probably sapped him of his juice.   Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf are giant sized WR's who have produced in the regular season and whose games have translated to even more success in the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong - I want guys who get open AND make contested catches. I’d love to have Jefferson on the Bills, for instance. But those guys are rare.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

To me the only way the Bills are moving out of pick 28 and moving down is if they have several WR's rated together.... Say Ladd McKonkey, Troy Franklin, Maliciah Corley, Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman all fairly close. Plus that means they weren't as high on AD Mitchell either, so if that's the case I'd either want the Bills to trade for a veteran WR or trade down like this mock draft and poster suggests. My guy would be Legette but I know just by all of the workouts Franklin had anmd I dont think it's a smokescreen at all but that's just my opinion.

[nosejob]

I don't think BB moves back. It's just gonna be too easy to lose out in the half a dozen picks or so, where you're hoping your target(s)still is/are.

 

If anything be it, trade up or stay put, I bet Beane is gonna use a 2025 pick (or 2) this year.

 

Since we're supposed to have decent FA money next year, I feel they believe this is the year to restock with the draft. With so many teams with multiple picks in rds. 2 and 3, now's the time to wheel and deal. Next year we should just be shopping to fill holes and go BPA all the way.