Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Draconator]

 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

 McBean, 

Let the draft come to you. Trade down to the top of the 2nd if the board suits. We need three to four immediate contributors. We already have Josh Allen. We don’t need the one of the top three receivers in the draft…

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL.

 

If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot.  Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick.  Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL.  They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft.

 

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL.  Did you think I was saying it was?  

 

See my previous comments on Mahomes.  Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed.  The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror.

 

Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years.

 

 

Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not.  Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls.  All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon.

 

 

I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that.

 

But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.

 

 

 

Trading up and getting one of the big three sounds like a lead-in to failure to me. 

 

As Alpha said yesterday, "Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.  No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc).  No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win.  No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12). There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy."

 

Alpha continued, "There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR.  In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans)."

 

Precisely.

 

You do NOT win because you have an excellent WR group. You win because you have an excellent team.

 

Yes, Mahomes won one with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL. He also won two with an excellent TE and a mediocre to below average WR group. That proves the point. It wasn't the great WR that was the reason for him winning that first one. It was having a consistently good team and a damn good QB.

 

They got that great WR with a massive tradeup that had them giving away the next year's first rounder, right? Oh, no, wait. They did not do that in any way, shape or form. They did indeed trade up giving away the next year's first. But for a quarterback. Not a WR. 

 

That's what Massey-Thaler tells you to do. That's what ALL the studies tell you. Never do huge trade-ups giving away premium assets except if you are going after a franchise QB. 

 

It's not just the studies making that case. That's what the story of the Chiefs tells you. Reid and Mahomes didn't need a great WR to win, as their last two wins show. But if you get a great WR, don't do it with a massive tradeup. The Chiefs didn't. They're an excellent example of doing things the right way. 

 

You claim that all five of the last five SB winners had an elite weapon. Not true.

 

Mike Evans is a terrific WR. But he wasn't elite the year the Bucs won it and he came in with 1006 yards. Same with Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite. And while Kelce was maybe still elite last year, for the first time in years it's arguable. He was clearly showing his age and his production showed it.

 

In any case, the Bills appear to have two young guys who are closing in on elite status already, and both improving. Cook was the 3rd best RB in the league in yards from scrimmage. And Kincaid had a sensational year for a rookie and was visibly improving.

 

You say you'll "be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that."

 

We're in agreement there. There are a lot of really good prospects this year after the big three.

 

 

Edited April 13 by Thurman#1

[Nihilarian]

The Patriot's offensive formula for winning so many SBs is to play good defense, have a good running game, move the chains to the red zone, and later on have a good TE to catch those red zone TDs (Gronk)...and oh yeah, Tom Brady at QB. 

 

Nevertheless, the Chiefs made it to the SB and won with that same game plan last season. The Bucs did it with that game plan.  

 

That game plan still works. Buffalo has the QB with Allen, the running game with Cook, and the TEs with Knox, and Kincade.  Gotta get that defense to a top-five unit with a dominant pass rush. 

 

Defense wins championships! Last year the Chiefs had the #2 overall defense. 

 

I wouldn't be upset with a defensive player taken at #28, Saftey, DT, Edge rusher, or a center. Just as long as they address the WR position at some point too. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion.

 

The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already.

 

Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing.

 

And we traded away Diggs.

 

I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff.

 

You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR.

 

You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys.

 

There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great.

 

And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade.

 

Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously.

 

Get Josh his #1.

[FireChans]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:51 PM, FireChans said:

Do you think the Falcons lost because they had Julio Jones?

 

Do you think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss?

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

The Patriot's offensive formula for winning so many SBs is to play good defense, have a good running game, move the chains to the red zone, and later on have a good TE to catch those red zone TDs (Gronk)...and oh yeah, Tom Brady at QB. 

 

Nevertheless, the Chiefs made it to the SB and won with that same game plan last season. The Bucs did it with that game plan.  

 

That game plan still works. Buffalo has the QB with Allen, the running game with Cook, and the TEs with Knox, and Kincade.  Gotta get that defense to a top-five unit with a dominant pass rush. 

 

Defense wins championships! Last year the Chiefs had the #2 overall defense. 

 

I wouldn't be upset with a defensive player taken at #28, Saftey, DT, Edge rusher, or a center. Just as long as they address the WR position at some point too. 

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion.

 

The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already.

 

Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing.

 

And we traded away Diggs.

 

I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff.

 

You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR.

 

You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys.

 

There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great.

 

And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade.

 

Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously.

 

Get Josh his #1.

 

 

You say you didn't bother to read most of my post. 

 

I understand. I pointed out areas where you were wrong. It's tough to read that sometimes. A lot wrong with this post I am now replying to also.

 

If you want to say we only have two glaring holes, I guess it depends on your definition of glaring. We have a number of holes. Neither of our starting safeties has ever consistently started at safety. That's a hole. We have a serious lack of pass rushers. That's a hole, and one that needs to be addressed in some way and pronto. Both of those needs are far more serious than RB. We also have weak and unproven spots at IOL and CB.

 

We had to let a ton of people go because of the cap and that created holes. Kid yourself if you want, but that's the way it is.

 

Certainly WR is one of our biggest holes. Very far from the only one.

 

As for a #1, plenty of teams win Super Bowls without them. Get a guy in the first two rounds.

 

Odunze, Nabers and MHJ are absolutely NOT worth using a strategy which has a success record of zero percent in NFL history in producing titles. The idea is dumb, unless one of them falls far enough to be gotten at a semi-reasonable price, in the late teens, maybe. Problem is the odds of that happening are close to zero.

 

Yes, Mahomes had Kelce. Kelce last year had less than a thousand yards last year and yet they won a title. There's every reason to think Kincaid will be in the thousand yard neighborhood this year. We don't need a #1 anymore than Mahomes does.

 

But picking a WR in the first two rounds makes a ton of sense.

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

 

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

 

 

Seriously? You think that ends the argument?

 

Um, not really so much at all.

 

Just because you can't point to one factor and say it's the only cause of a given result in football doesn't mean the discussion is over. Football is a wildly complicated game and nearly every result is caused by hundreds of factors.

 

But what we do know 100% for certain is that having Julio Jones wasn't enough to get the Falcons over the hump. They were way ahead in that Super Bowl, just needed another score or at least a couple of long good drives even without a score, and having Julio on that team wasn't enough to get them that. They failed to get over the hump, not just for that game but for the ten years Jones was on that team. And again, he was drafted onto a team that was 13-3 the year before, with a good QB, and looked to themselves at least like they were one receiver away. They weren't. 

 

Having an elite WR group doesn't win you titles. You need more than that. You need a damn good roster, up and down. 

 

Within all too short of a time, they were finding that they needed an overall increase in talent that the picks they'd traded away would have provided, rather than needing just one guy. 

 

Picking Mike Evans was a good idea because they didn't trade up to do it, much less make a huge trade up throwing away many of the best picks in two drafts the way the Falcons did to get Julio Jones.

 

 

[papazoid]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:05 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

 

agree

 

investing heavily in WR is not a proven recipe for a super bowl win

 

the current Bills team is in Cap jail. we can't afford to trade and pay top dollar for a free agent at any position.

 

the bills need to keep and save their premium first and second round draft picks this year and next to fill several holes WR1, Edge, Safety, Center.

 

makes no sense to bundle all those premium draft picks to move up into this years top 10 for a WR1. minor moves using our 4th, 5th or 6th round picks is fine.

[Cray51]

12 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

No one really knows the talent we have since Kincaid and Shakir are so young. You can throw Shorter in there as well. Any of these players can turn into a stud. 

Totally understand that, and I really like Kincaid.  But there is a very very small chance Shakir or shorter get to #1 receiver level

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

I still think people are forgetting that the pats with miss scored 140 points more than we did last year and in one fewer game. 
 

they were an absolute buzz saw 

 

a true menace to the league. 
 

and they got unlucky at the worst time but boy would I be good to go with that route instead of the chiefs 2023 model 

[DJB]

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

Edited April 13 by DJB

[Dr. Who]

36 minutes ago, DJB said:

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

I think he is the one that is most likely to be plausibly available. I just don't see a move up into the top 6 picks. It would be prohibitively expensive. Someone would have to fall to the pick 8 or 9 range. (That will still be very expensive.) I can't see the Jets passing on Odunze, so I surmise that is where you'd have to get to acquire him.

Edited April 13 by Dr. Who

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

But what we do know 100% for certain is that having Julio Jones wasn't enough to get the Falcons over the hump

True.

 

what that DOESN’T mean is that they lost because they had Julio.

 

Which is the point.

 

it’s why @Alphadawg7’s points are so silly. “No one ever won a Super Bowl trading up for a WR.” 
 

Well guess what fellas? No one ever won a Super Bowl with a QB from Wyoming. Is it time to trade Josh Allen for picks to get JJ McCarthy?

 

 

 

 

[NoSaint]

22 minutes ago, DJB said:

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

even if not a career guy for the bills- 

 

if he’s elite 

 

and he’s paired with Josh as an elite prospect he should be a star in the league

 

he will a superstar haul to trade in 5 years 

 

tyreek was a 1-2-4-4-6(?)

 

if we trade up we could reasonably expect to get a lot of the haul back 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

3 hours ago, Cray51 said:

Totally understand that, and I really like Kincaid.  But there is a very very small chance Shakir or shorter get to #1 receiver level

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

[NoSaint]

27 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

well, with possibly the greatest qb of all time, and possibly the greatest tight end. 
 

and did take a massive step forward by adding the elite wr even if the economics weren’t long term sustainable 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

 

[TurfToeJam]

49 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

well, with possibly the greatest qb of all time, and possibly the greatest tight end. 
 

 

You're talking about the highly successful Gronk and Brady right? 

Or the highly successful Kelce and mahomes, right?  

 

Oh, wait, you mean the soon to be highly successful Kincaid and Allen!  

😷

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, TurfToeJam said:

 

You're talking about the highly successful Gronk and Brady right? 

Or the highly successful Kelce and mahomes, right?  

 

Oh, wait, you mean the soon to be highly successful Kincaid and Allen!  

😷

imagine if we add a moss. 

[Dr. Who]

27 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

imagine if we add a moss. 

Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.?

No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade. 

[SirAndrew]

I can’t believe the amount of people who believe a mediocre receiving corps is alright. I’ll be extremely disappointed if we don’t land a big time receiver in this draft. It’s a disservice not to find that for Allen. Manning had elite wideouts during his career, and most other greats as well. Brady is the freak exception, but we’re also talking about a dude who was elite into his 40’s. Nothing about Tom Brady will ever be the norm.
 

I’m also not about to compare anything to Matt Ryan either. Ryan had a few good seasons, but he’s a far cry from Josh Allen. Mahomes also has an elite receiver, and his name is Travis Kelce, Kelce is ELITE. The guy is absolutely unstoppable, and a hall of fame player. Mahomes has “no elite receiver” is a ridiculous narrative with Kelce. Kincaid is very good, but he’ll never be close to Kelce imo. We need more because we don’t have Kelce on this roster. A failure to draft a first round wideout would result in an ugly 2024 season. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Draconator said:

 

That is awesome!

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I can’t believe the amount of people who believe a mediocre receiving corps is alright. I’ll be extremely disappointed if we don’t land a big time receiver in this draft. It’s a disservice not to find that for Allen. Manning had elite wideouts during his career, and most other greats as well. Brady is the freak exception, but we’re also talking about a dude who was elite into his 40’s. Nothing about Tom Brady will ever be the norm.
 

I’m also not about to compare anything to Matt Ryan either. Ryan had a few good seasons, but he’s a far cry from Josh Allen. Mahomes also has an elite receiver, and his name is Travis Kelce, Kelce is ELITE. The guy is absolutely unstoppable, and a hall of fame player. Mahomes has “no elite receiver” is a ridiculous narrative with Kelce. Kincaid is very good, but he’ll never be close to Kelce imo. We need more because we don’t have Kelce on this roster. A failure to draft a first round wideout would result in an ugly 2024 season. 

I agree with all of this, except I think Kincaid can be really good. I don't know how close to Kelce, but I'm not ready to say he can't be elite. You can't count on that happening, however, and he may plateau at a lower level of achievement. Doesn't ultimately affect the overall truth that they still need to give Josh Allen much better weapons. Shakir and Samuel are solid pieces, but they are not A-level weapons.

 

And as I've tried to point out to the D crowd -- if you have a truly potent offense, not just statistically, but one that can terrorize the opposition, you make the other teams' offense reactive, feeling that they have to match you after every drive or risk falling into the abyss. And most teams won't have the fire power to keep up. That is a big edge to your own D, because panic on the other side causes mistakes and also makes the playbook narrow to more predictable limits.

 

If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise? 

[NoSaint]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.?

No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade. 

I think same page here And have really been talking myself into it post diggs.

 

tight ends normally have a learning curve so we may see a jump there. 
 

I like Samuel over Davis 

 

if we can improve diggs spot - it could be a hell of a step forward for this group. And I’m not opposed to our weapons being overkill

 

back up those safeties and cook can feast.
 

It’ll take pressure off Josh (imagine him getting to the playoffs much healthier)

 

It lets the defense turn one dimensional and takes pressure off.  

 

that patriots team was an absolute scoring machine. 

[90sBills]

34 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise? 

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

Brady is the freak exception

 

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it.

 

Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.

[Cray51]

4 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

Outside of Kincaid and Shakir, no one on team is a good sure handed receiver.

 

[DJB]

35 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Outside of Kincaid and Shakir, no one on team is a good sure handed receiver.

 

Considering those two guys were picked up in the last two drafts it’s clear it’s part of the draft philosophy when it comes to pass catchers . 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract.

 

Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching. 

 

But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder.

 

Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach. 

Edited April 13 by Dr. Who

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it.

 

Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.

I agree with this, you’ve made some fine points. Brady looked washed at the end of his Pats tenure when Belichick left the cupboards empty. He was a different QB with a very skilled receiving corps in Tampa. I don’t think teams should build themselves based on others. I’m fully on board with giving Josh an outside receiver in the first round, and quite frankly don’t care how other teams are built.
 

Allen isn’t Brady or Mahomes, every player is different, and I think he’d benefit greatly from a security blanket on the outside. Allen needs a guy he can heave the ball to downfield. That’s part of who he is, and you need a roster that compliments it, rather than changing the offense itself. You’re absolutely correct about defense, and that’s why we can’t copy KC. We have more in common with Manning’s Colts teams. It makes sense to continue building an unstoppable offense that might steal a Super Bowl win one year. 

[SirAndrew]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

True, you can’t really afford much around a highly paid QB, but that’s all the more incentive to draft a receiver with an affordable rookie contract. This is the time you take a big swing on receiver. You’ll get a decent number of years before that contract expires. If we don’t have a Super Bowl when that guy’s contract expires, Josh will be in his thirties, and the likelihood of that ever happening will be trending close to zero. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract.

 

Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching. 

 

But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder.

 

Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach. 

I thought Diggs was an elite weapon for Allen. Davis was serviceable and definitely in your ‘good enough’ description. Having 1 elite receiver was obviously not enough so I’m with you regarding accumulating more elite receiving talent. I’m hoping they’d do it through the draft rather than spending big money like they did with Diggs. Betting big in free agency is what got them in this current cap bind.

 

My hope is they hit on a couple of receivers this year along with Kincaid’s development. Then the following year we might get your vision of an offensive juggernaut that could make hay for a title. This upcoming season is pivotal for the next step forward imo. 

[Dr. Who]

24 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I thought Diggs was an elite weapon for Allen. Davis was serviceable and definitely in your ‘good enough’ description. Having 1 elite receiver was obviously not enough so I’m with you regarding accumulating more elite receiving talent. I’m hoping they’d do it through the draft rather than spending big money like they did with Diggs. Betting big in free agency is what got them in this current cap bind.

 

My hope is they hit on a couple of receivers this year along with Kincaid’s development. Then the following year we might get your vision of an offensive juggernaut that could make hay for a title. This upcoming season is pivotal for the next step forward imo. 

Yes, I agree.

 

Diggs was an elite weapon, though not so much last year. I also concur about cap management. I am not for trading for a high-priced veteran. Depending on what happens in the draft, I could see them bringing in a mid-level veteran to fill out the room.

 

Obviously, Beane traded the Justin Jefferson pick for Diggs. The next best receivers during Allen's tenure are arguably Brown for one year, and Cole Beasley. Davis had that explosive game against KC, and some decent games interspersed with lots of dropped balls, nagging injury, and tolerable WR2 play. It's not a great collection, though the Kincaid selection is a nice start at adding offensive weapons with higher ceilings.

 

It is a pivotal draft. Getting WR right could really set the team up well going forward. I don't want to think about the ramifications of getting it wrong. Let's just get it right. 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say you didn't bother to read most of my post. 

 

I understand. I pointed out areas where you were wrong. It's tough to read that sometimes. A lot wrong with this post I am now replying to also.

 

If you want to say we only have two glaring holes, I guess it depends on your definition of glaring. We have a number of holes. Neither of our starting safeties has ever consistently started at safety. That's a hole. We have a serious lack of pass rushers. That's a hole, and one that needs to be addressed in some way and pronto. Both of those needs are far more serious than RB. We also have weak and unproven spots at IOL and CB.

 

We had to let a ton of people go because of the cap and that created holes. Kid yourself if you want, but that's the way it is.

 

Certainly WR is one of our biggest holes. Very far from the only one.

 

As for a #1, plenty of teams win Super Bowls without them. Get a guy in the first two rounds.

 

Odunze, Nabers and MHJ are absolutely NOT worth using a strategy which has a success record of zero percent in NFL history in producing titles. The idea is dumb, unless one of them falls far enough to be gotten at a semi-reasonable price, in the late teens, maybe. Problem is the odds of that happening are close to zero.

 

Yes, Mahomes had Kelce. Kelce last year had less than a thousand yards last year and yet they won a title. There's every reason to think Kincaid will be in the thousand yard neighborhood this year. We don't need a #1 anymore than Mahomes does.

 

But picking a WR in the first two rounds makes a ton of sense.

 

Took me years to figure this out, but reading whole posts of yours is often pointless.

 

3rd-5th paragraphs I addressed already.

 

We disagree on glaring holes at positions other than WR.

 

The crux of your argument is that there are glaring holes equal to or bigger than WR. 

 

I disagree with that. I actually don't even think that there's an argument that WR doesn't stand alone as the biggest and most glaring need. 

 

No point in this discussion if you can't see that.

Edited April 14 by transplantbillsfan

[Nextmanup]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

An isolated piece of anecdotal information is hardly instructive in any calculated decision.

 

You gotta go with the percentages/odds/what happens most of the time.

 

The Bills just gave up a LOT to get Stefon Diggs and it was a big deal move at the time, but it worked out as well as you can imagine.

 

I am NOT a fan of moving up in general, I think it's the wrong way to do things...but without elite talent at WR, we are going nowhere.

 

 

[Nihilarian]

As I mentioned, the cost of trading up to one of those top 3 is cost-prohibitive. The cost would be going from 660, #28 to #4 1800.

 

In trading for Julio Jones the Atlanta Falcons never made it to the SB with Mike Smith as HC. The guy who drafted him. Then they did make one SB later on and the GM was canned. Using up all those draft resources to move up costs the team players at other positions. Hence after two decent seasons, Atlanta went 4-12, 6-10. 8-8. 

 

This team has a bunch of maybes on it at many positions, along with many needs for elite talent at Center, WR, Safety, DT, DE / pass rusher, ILB, and CB. 

 

How many "elite" players are on the current roster? The more you draft the better the chance of finding one of those guys. Lord knows it's tough enough drafting so late. But then, to give up so many current and future picks on a "maybe" is reckless. 

 

[KDIGGZ]

We need to trade for up for the headlines alone...

 

"E Tu, Beane? Rome Falls and Bills make coliseum sized trade to add WR gladiator to their empire"

[billieve420]

Would like to see how Shorter performs this year. Hoping he can contribute would be nice to have bigger WR with some size on the outside.

 

 

Edited April 14 by billieve420

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

An isolated piece of anecdotal information is hardly instructive in any calculated decision.

 

You gotta go with the percentages/odds/what happens most of the time.

 

The Bills just gave up a LOT to get Stefon Diggs and it was a big deal move at the time, but it worked out as well as you can imagine.

 

I am NOT a fan of moving up in general, I think it's the wrong way to do things...but without elite talent at WR, we are going nowhere.

Does an "elite" talent at WR fall on his face for the playoffs? Diggs went invisible against Cincy in that critical home playoff game in which he was yelling at Josh Allen. His stats were 10 targets, and 4 receptions for 35 yards. The most targeted offense player and he fell on his face. It has been like this for most playoff games he played in during his time in Buffalo. 

 

The last half of last season showed that the team will do just fine without Diggs as he was the most targeted during that time and did less.